(ARR) ARMOUR Residential REIT - Overview
Stock: Mortgage-Backed Securities, Agency Bonds, Treasury Instruments
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 17.43% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 11.84% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 24.47% |
| Payout Consistency | 81.7% |
| Payout Ratio | 30.8% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 29.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.73% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.40 |
| Alpha | -0.06 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.673 |
| Beta Downside | 0.867 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 48.78% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.01 |
Description: ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT January 15, 2026
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (NYSE:ARR) is a U.S. Mortgage REIT that invests primarily in agency-backed residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) issued or guaranteed by GSEs (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) and the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA), together with related unsecured notes, Treasury securities, and money-market instruments. Because it has elected REIT tax status, any portion of net income distributed to shareholders is exempt from corporate income tax, allowing the firm to channel most earnings into quarterly cash distributions.
Key performance indicators as of the latest filing (Q1 2024) include an annualized dividend yield near 8 % and a distribution coverage ratio of 1.2×, indicating that cash flow from the MBS portfolio comfortably covers the declared payout. The portfolio’s average weighted-average life (WAL) sits at roughly 5.5 years, making the REIT moderately sensitive to changes in the Federal Reserve’s policy rate and to prepayment dynamics that accelerate when mortgage rates fall. A sector-wide driver is the Fed’s stance on interest rates: a tightening cycle compresses net interest margins, while a rate-cut environment can boost the value of existing higher-coupon MBS but also raise prepayment risk.
For a deeper quantitative view of ARR’s risk-adjusted returns and how its exposure stacks up against peers, you may find a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst toolkit useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: 64.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.80 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -5349 % < 20% (prev -77.13%; Δ -5272 % < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 179.1m > Net Income 64.5m |
| Net Debt (-44.2m) to EBITDA (565.6m): -0.08 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.01 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (104.6m) vs 12m ago 101.7% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 88.02% > 18% (prev 0.95%; Δ 8707 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 1.89% > 50% (prev 4.98%; Δ -3.09% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.12 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 565.6m / Interest Expense TTM 595.8m) |
Altman Z'' -5.76
| A: -0.86 (Total Current Assets 123.9m - Total Current Liabilities 16.70b) / Total Assets 19.36b |
| B: -0.04 (Retained Earnings -729.9m / Total Assets 19.36b) |
| C: 0.00 (EBIT TTM 70.5m / Avg Total Assets 16.38b) |
| D: -0.04 (Book Value of Equity -729.8m / Total Liabilities 17.23b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -5.76 = D |
What is the price of ARR shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.67%, over one month by -1.66%, over three months by +11.22% and over the past year by +11.51%.
Is ARR a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ARR price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 18.6 | 5.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 18.6 | 5.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 22.9 | 29.7% |
ARR Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 5.6786
P/S = 16.7695
P/B = 0.9146
P/EG = -1.31
Revenue TTM = 309.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 70.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 565.6m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 16.56b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 10.72b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -44.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 12.63b USD (1.96b + Debt 10.72b - CCE 44.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.12 (Ebit TTM 70.5m / Interest Expense TTM 595.8m)
EV/FCF = 70.52x (Enterprise Value 12.63b / FCF TTM 179.1m)
FCF Yield = 1.42% (FCF TTM 179.1m / Enterprise Value 12.63b)
FCF Margin = 57.78% (FCF TTM 179.1m / Revenue TTM 309.9m)
Net Margin = 20.83% (Net Income TTM 64.5m / Revenue TTM 309.9m)
Gross Margin = 88.02% ((Revenue TTM 309.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 37.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 93.75% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.65 (Enterprise Value 12.63b / Total Assets 19.36b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.60% (Interest Expense 171.7m / Debt 10.72b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 55.7m (EBIT 70.5m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.01 (Total Current Assets 123.9m / Total Current Liabilities 16.70b)
Debt / Equity = 5.03 (Debt 10.72b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.13b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.08 (Net Debt -44.2m / EBITDA 565.6m)
Debt / FCF = -0.25 (Net Debt -44.2m / FCF TTM 179.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.71b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.39% (Net Income 64.5m / Total Assets 19.36b)
RoE = 3.77% (Net Income TTM 64.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.71b)
RoCE = 2.65% (EBIT 70.5m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 19.36b - Current Liab 16.70b))
RoIC = 0.44% (NOPAT 55.7m / Invested Capital 12.80b)
WACC = 2.37% (E(1.96b)/V(12.67b) * Re(8.40%) + D(10.72b)/V(12.67b) * Rd(1.60%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.40% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 45.81%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 87.52% ; FCFF base≈200.0m ; Y1≈227.3m ; Y5≈311.0m
Fair Price DCF = 82.19 (EV 9.15b - Net Debt -44.2m = Equity 9.20b / Shares 111.9m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.96% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 45.46 | EPS CAGR: -33.48% | SUE: -2.72 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 60.28 | Revenue CAGR: 22.61% | SUE: 0.54 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.76 | Chg30d=+0.002 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.13 | Chg30d=-0.022 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-0.3% | Growth Revenue=+82.0%