ARR Stock Analysis: ARMOUR Residential REIT | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.131m USD | 12M Return: 21% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 66.7M
EPS Trend: 56.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 62.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
ARMOUR Residential REIT (NYSE: ARR) is a U.S.-based mortgage REIT that invests primarily in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) issued or guaranteed by Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae). Its portfolio is backed by fixed-rate, hybrid adjustable-rate, and adjustable-rate home loans, and is supplemented by GSE unsecured notes and bonds, U.S. Treasuries, and money market instruments. The company is structured as a real estate investment trust for tax purposes, was incorporated in 2008, and is headquartered in Vero Beach, Florida.
As a mortgage REIT, ARMOUR generates income from the spread between the yield on its MBS holdings and its funding costs, typically employing significant leverage, which makes its earnings sensitive to interest-rate movements and MBS spreads. Mortgage REITs differ from equity REITs in that they generally do not own physical property but instead hold pools of mortgages or mortgage-related securities, and they are required to distribute the bulk of their taxable income to shareholders in order to maintain their REIT status.
- Net interest spread compresses as hedging costs rise
- Prepayment speeds accelerate when mortgage rates decline
- Repo rate volatility pressures mREIT leverage profitability
| Net Income: 240.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.09 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.79k% < 20% (prev -2.02k%; Δ 226.0% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 134.3m > Net Income 240.5m |
| Net Debt (18.4b) to EBITDA (843.5m): 21.81 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.01 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (119.6m) vs 12m ago 58.63% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.37% > 50% (prev 3.83%; Δ 1.54% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.23 > 6 (EBIT TTM 841.5m / Interest Expense TTM 684.0m) |
| A: -0.83 (Total Current Assets 155.1m - Total Current Liabilities 17.9b) / Total Assets 21.5b |
| B: -0.16 (Retained Earnings -3.33b / Total Assets 21.5b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 841.5m / Avg Total Assets 18.5b) |
| D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 2.34b / Total Liabilities 19.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -5.51 = D |
As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 17.05 with a total of 3,059,500 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.47%, over one month by +1.13%, over three months by +1.17% and over the past year by +20.97%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 16.40 (which is 3.8% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
ARMOUR Residential REIT has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.29. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ARR.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 18.4 | 7.8% |
P/E Trailing = 6.8996
P/E Forward = 16.0
P/S = 7.1644
P/B = 0.9092
P/EG = 2.9673
Revenue TTM = 993.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 841.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 843.5m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (0.0)
Short Term Debt = 18.5b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 18.5b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 18.4b USD (calculated: Debt 18.5b - CCE 66.5m)
Enterprise Value = 20.5b USD (2.13b + Debt 18.5b - CCE 66.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.23 (Ebit TTM 841.5m / Interest Expense TTM 684.0m)
EV/FCF = 152.9x (Enterprise Value 20.5b / FCF TTM 134.3m)
FCF Yield = 0.65% (FCF TTM 134.3m / Enterprise Value 20.5b)
FCF Margin = 13.52% (FCF TTM 134.3m / Revenue TTM 993.0m)
Net Margin = 24.22% (Net Income TTM 240.5m / Revenue TTM 993.0m)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 993.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 42.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.96 (Enterprise Value 20.5b / Total Assets 21.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.70% (Interest Expense 684.0m / Debt 18.5b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 664.8m (EBIT 841.5m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.01 (Total Current Assets 155.1m / Total Current Liabilities 17.9b)
Debt / Equity = 7.90 (Debt 18.5b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.34b)
Debt / EBITDA = 21.81 (Net Debt 18.4b / EBITDA 843.5m)
Debt / FCF = 137.0 (Net Debt 18.4b / FCF TTM 134.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.10b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.30% (Net Income 240.5m / Total Assets 21.5b)
RoE = 11.47% (Net Income TTM 240.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.10b)
RoCE = 40.14% (EBIT 841.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.10b + L.T.Debt 0.0))
RoIC = 3.03% (NOPAT 664.8m / Invested Capital 21.9b)
WACC = 3.52% (E(2.13b)/V(20.6b) * Re(8.62%) + D(18.5b)/V(20.6b) * Rd(3.70%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 86.67 | Cagr: 48.42%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈187.0m ; Y1≈164.0m ; Y5≈132.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 2.13b - Net Debt 18.4b = -16.3b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 56.14 | EPS CAGR: 26.26% | SUE: -0.26 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 62.22 | Revenue CAGR: 70.37% | SUE: -0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.72 | Chg30d=+0.77% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.73 | Chg30d=-0.07% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.93 | Chg30d=-0.12% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-4.3% | GrowthRev=+71.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.01 | Chg30d=-1.40% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+3.0% | GrowthRev=+29.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -18% (up=3, down=5)