ARR Stock Analysis: ARMOUR Residential REIT | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.313m USD | 12M Return: 27% | US0423157058 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 52.0M
EPS Trend: -84.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 75.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
ARMOUR Residential REIT (NYSE: ARR) is a U.S.-based mortgage REIT that invests primarily in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) issued or guaranteed by Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae). Its portfolio is backed by fixed-rate, hybrid adjustable-rate, and adjustable-rate home loans, and is supplemented by GSE unsecured notes and bonds, U.S. Treasuries, and money market instruments. The company is structured as a real estate investment trust for tax purposes, was incorporated in 2008, and is headquartered in Vero Beach, Florida.
As a mortgage REIT, ARMOUR generates income from the spread between the yield on its MBS holdings and its funding costs, typically employing significant leverage, which makes its earnings sensitive to interest-rate movements and MBS spreads. Mortgage REITs differ from equity REITs in that they generally do not own physical property but instead hold pools of mortgages or mortgage-related securities, and they are required to distribute the bulk of their taxable income to shareholders in order to maintain their REIT status.
- Net interest spread compresses as hedging costs rise
- Prepayment speeds accelerate when mortgage rates decline
- Repo rate volatility pressures mREIT leverage profitability
| Net Income: 430.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.22 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.99k% < 20% (prev -2.19k%; Δ 204.8% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 319.5m > Net Income 430.9m |
| Net Debt (19.4b) to EBITDA (1.07b): 18.04 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.00 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (130.0m) vs 12m ago 55.15% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.18% > 50% (prev 4.63%; Δ 0.55% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.48 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.07b / Interest Expense TTM 723.3m) |
| A: -0.88 (Total Current Assets 83.7m - Total Current Liabilities 20.2b) / Total Assets 22.7b |
| B: -0.15 (Retained Earnings -3.31b / Total Assets 22.7b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 1.07b / Avg Total Assets 19.5b) |
| D: 0.13 (Book Value of Equity 2.58b / Total Liabilities 20.2b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -5.76 = D |
As of August 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 16.22 with a total of 2,344,050 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.58%, over one month by +1.52%, over three months by +0.05% and over the past year by +27.03%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 15.80 (which is 2.6% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
ARMOUR Residential REIT has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.29. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ARR.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 18.4 | 13.3% |
P/E Trailing = 3.7052
P/E Forward = 7.1531
P/S = 4.7137
P/B = 0.8968
P/EG = 2.9673
Revenue TTM = 1.01b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.07b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.07b USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (0.0)
Short Term Debt = 19.4b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 19.4b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 19.4b USD (calculated: Debt 19.4b - CCE 83.7m)
Enterprise Value = 21.7b USD (2.31b + Debt 19.4b - CCE 83.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.48 (Ebit TTM 1.07b / Interest Expense TTM 723.3m)
EV/FCF = 67.83x (Enterprise Value 21.7b / FCF TTM 319.5m)
FCF Yield = 1.47% (FCF TTM 319.5m / Enterprise Value 21.7b)
FCF Margin = 31.66% (FCF TTM 319.5m / Revenue TTM 1.01b)
Net Margin = 42.70% (Net Income TTM 430.9m / Revenue TTM 1.01b)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 1.01b - Cost of Revenue TTM 45.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.95 (Enterprise Value 21.7b / Total Assets 22.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.72% (Interest Expense 723.3m / Debt 19.4b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 846.3m (EBIT 1.07b * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.00 (Total Current Assets 83.7m / Total Current Liabilities 20.2b)
Debt / Equity = 7.54 (Debt 19.4b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.58b)
Debt / EBITDA = 18.04 (Net Debt 19.4b / EBITDA 1.07b)
Debt / FCF = 60.59 (Net Debt 19.4b / FCF TTM 319.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.33b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.21% (Net Income 430.9m / Total Assets 22.7b)
RoE = 18.52% (Net Income TTM 430.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.33b)
RoCE = 46.04% (EBIT 1.07b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.33b + L.T.Debt 0.0))
RoIC = 3.85% (NOPAT 846.3m / Invested Capital 22.0b)
WACC = 3.58% (E(2.31b)/V(21.8b) * Re(8.93%) + D(19.4b)/V(21.8b) * Rd(3.72%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.93% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 97.26 | Cagr: 54.31%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈297.3m ; Y1≈340.8m ; Y5≈501.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 7.55b - Net Debt 19.4b = -11.8b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -84.04 | EPS CAGR: -26.56% | SUE: 0.09 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 74.99 | Revenue CAGR: 140.7% | SUE: 0.40 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.72 | Chg30d=-1.99% | Revisions=-38% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.91 | Chg30d=-0.47% | Revisions=-44% | GrowthEPS=-4.8% | GrowthRev=+98.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.93 | Chg30d=-2.67% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=+0.7% | GrowthRev=+18.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -53% (up=3, down=13)