ARR Stock Analysis: ARMOUR Residential REIT | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.881m USD | 12M Return: 3% | US0423157058 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 66.6M
EPS Trend: -84.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 75.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
ARMOUR Residential REIT (NYSE: ARR) is a small-cap mortgage REIT that invests primarily in U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) issued or guaranteed by government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as well as Ginnie Mae. Its portfolio includes securities backed by fixed-rate, hybrid adjustable-rate, and adjustable-rate home loans, alongside GSE unsecured notes and U.S. Treasuries. The company is structured as a real estate investment trust, which requires it to distribute the majority of its taxable income to shareholders as dividends.
Mortgage REITs like ARR earn revenue primarily from the net interest spread between the yield on their MBS holdings and the cost of financing these securities through repurchase agreements, making them highly sensitive to interest rate movements and the shape of the yield curve. Incorporated in 2008 and headquartered in Vero Beach, Florida, the company has been publicly traded since its 2007 IPO.
- Fed rate cuts compress mortgage REIT net interest spreads
- Agency MBS prepayment speeds accelerate as refinancing wave hits portfolio
- Book value declines from widening MBS spreads and TBA losses
| Net Income: 430.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.22 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.99k% < 20% (prev -2.19k%; Δ 204.8% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 319.5m > Net Income 430.9m |
| Net Debt (19.4b) to EBITDA (1.07b): 18.04 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.00 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (130.0m) vs 12m ago 55.15% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.18% > 50% (prev 4.63%; Δ 0.55% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.48 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.07b / Interest Expense TTM 723.3m) |
| A: -0.88 (Total Current Assets 83.7m - Total Current Liabilities 20.2b) / Total Assets 22.7b |
| B: -0.15 (Retained Earnings -3.31b / Total Assets 22.7b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 1.07b / Avg Total Assets 19.5b) |
| D: 0.13 (Book Value of Equity 2.58b / Total Liabilities 20.2b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -5.76 = D |
As of October 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.62 with a total of 5,293,257 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.48%, over one month by -10.75%, over three months by -16.80% and over the past year by +2.98%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 13.00 (which is 4.6% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
ARMOUR Residential REIT has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.67. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ARR.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 18.4 | 34.9% |
P/E Trailing = 3.2734
P/E Forward = 5.0556
P/S = 3.8338
P/B = 0.8227
P/EG = 2.9673
Revenue TTM = 1.01b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.07b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.07b USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (0.0)
Short Term Debt = 19.4b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 19.4b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 19.4b USD (calculated: Debt 19.4b - CCE 83.7m)
Enterprise Value = 21.2b USD (1.88b + Debt 19.4b - CCE 83.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.48 (Ebit TTM 1.07b / Interest Expense TTM 723.3m)
EV/FCF = 66.48x (Enterprise Value 21.2b / FCF TTM 319.5m)
FCF Yield = 1.50% (FCF TTM 319.5m / Enterprise Value 21.2b)
FCF Margin = 31.66% (FCF TTM 319.5m / Revenue TTM 1.01b)
Net Margin = 42.70% (Net Income TTM 430.9m / Revenue TTM 1.01b)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 1.01b - Cost of Revenue TTM 45.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.93 (Enterprise Value 21.2b / Total Assets 22.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.72% (Interest Expense 723.3m / Debt 19.4b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 846.3m (EBIT 1.07b * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.00 (Total Current Assets 83.7m / Total Current Liabilities 20.2b)
Debt / Equity = 7.54 (Debt 19.4b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.58b)
Debt / EBITDA = 18.04 (Net Debt 19.4b / EBITDA 1.07b)
Debt / FCF = 60.59 (Net Debt 19.4b / FCF TTM 319.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.33b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.21% (Net Income 430.9m / Total Assets 22.7b)
RoE = 18.52% (Net Income TTM 430.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.33b)
RoCE = 46.04% (EBIT 1.07b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.33b + L.T.Debt 0.0))
RoIC = 3.85% (NOPAT 846.3m / Invested Capital 22.0b)
WACC = 3.47% (E(1.88b)/V(21.3b) * Re(8.94%) + D(19.4b)/V(21.3b) * Rd(3.72%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.94% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 97.26 | Cagr: 54.31%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈297.3m ; Y1≈340.8m ; Y5≈501.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 7.55b - Net Debt 19.4b = -11.8b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -84.04 | EPS CAGR: -26.56% | SUE: 0.09 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 74.99 | Revenue CAGR: 140.7% | SUE: 0.40 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.72 | Chg30d=-1.99% | Revisions=-38% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.91 | Chg30d=-0.47% | Revisions=-44% | GrowthEPS=-4.8% | GrowthRev=+98.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.93 | Chg30d=-2.67% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=+0.7% | GrowthRev=+18.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -53% (up=3, down=13)