ARX Stock Analysis: Accelerant Holdings | NYSE
Insurance Brokers | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.751m USD | 12M Return: -53.8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 21.9M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.3%
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 0.9 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Accelerant Holdings operates a data-driven risk exchange that links selected specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners, generating revenue primarily through fixed-percentage, volume-based fees paid by those partners for sourcing, managing, and monitoring the business they write. The company reports through three segments: Exchange Services (the technology and agency platform connecting members and capital partners), MGA Operations (fees earned by members for originating and underwriting insurance portfolios, net of related expenses), and Underwriting (direct property and casualty insurance and reinsurance assumed through consolidated insurance and reinsurance entities). Its core customer base consists of small-to-medium sized commercial clients across the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom.
The business model combines elements of a Managing General Agent (MGA) and an insurance exchange, with the risk exchange platform functioning as a marketplace that aggregates specialty underwriting data and capital, allowing partners to participate in niche or non-standard commercial lines without taking on the full operating infrastructure themselves. Founded in 2018 and headquartered in the Cayman Islands, Accelerant completed its NYSE IPO in July 2025 and is classified within the Financials sector as an Insurance Broker.
- Risk exchange premium volume growth drives volume-based fee revenue higher
- Underwriting segment loss ratio trends pressure combined ratio and margins
- MGA portfolio expansion and new member additions accelerate origination fee income
| Net Income: -1.37b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -6.75 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 55.21% < 20% (prev -13.21%; Δ 68.42% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 331.9m > Net Income -1.37b |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (222.0m) vs 12m ago 2.45% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 65.75% > 18% (prev 58.25%; Δ 7.50% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 11.62% > 50% (prev 9.33%; Δ 2.29% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -18.78 > 6 (EBIT TTM -1.28b / Interest Expense TTM 68.1m) |
| A: 0.06 (Total Current Assets 8.06b - Total Current Liabilities 7.57b) / Total Assets 8.60b |
| B: -0.18 (Retained Earnings -1.54b / Total Assets 8.60b) |
| C: -0.17 (EBIT TTM -1.28b / Avg Total Assets 7.63b) |
| D: 0.09 (Book Value of Equity 692.6m / Total Liabilities 7.88b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.24 = CCC |
As of July 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.77 with a total of 1,672,700 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.52%, over one month by -5.75%, over three months by +4.56% and over the past year by -53.78%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 11.70 (which is 15% or 2.3 ATR below the current price).
Accelerant Holdings has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Forward = 18.0505
P/S = 2.8836
P/B = 3.979
Revenue TTM = 887.1m USD
EBIT TTM = -1.28b USD
EBITDA TTM = -1.24b USD
Long Term Debt = 120.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.10m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 120.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -2.31b USD (calculated: Debt 120.7m - CCE 2.43b)
Enterprise Value = 444.6m USD (2.75b + Debt 120.7m - CCE 2.43b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -18.78 (Ebit TTM -1.28b / Interest Expense TTM 68.1m)
EV/FCF = 1.39x (Enterprise Value 444.6m / FCF TTM 320.2m)
FCF Yield = 72.01% (FCF TTM 320.2m / Enterprise Value 444.6m)
FCF Margin = 36.10% (FCF TTM 320.2m / Revenue TTM 887.1m)
Net Margin = -154.0% (Net Income TTM -1.37b / Revenue TTM 887.1m)
Gross Margin = 65.75% ((Revenue TTM 887.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 303.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 57.57% (prev 62.32%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.05 (Enterprise Value 444.6m / Total Assets 8.60b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 56.42% (Interest Expense 68.1m / Debt 120.7m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -1.01b (EBIT -1.28b * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.06 (Total Current Assets 8.06b / Total Current Liabilities 7.57b)
Debt / Equity = 0.17 (Debt 120.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 692.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.86 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -2.31b / EBITDA -1.24b)
Debt / FCF = -7.20 (Net Debt -2.31b / FCF TTM 320.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 629.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -17.89% (Net Income -1.37b / Total Assets 8.60b)
RoE = -217.1% (Net Income TTM -1.37b / Total Stockholder Equity 629.2m)
RoCE = -170.5% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT -1.28b / Capital Employed (Equity 629.2m + L.T.Debt 120.7m))
RoIC = -102.2% (out of range, set to none) (NOPAT -1.01b / Invested Capital 988.3m)
WACC = 5.32% (E(2.75b)/V(2.87b) * Re(5.55%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 5.55% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 64.45 | Cagr: 6.88%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈471.2m ; Y1≈413.2m ; Y5≈333.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 67.95 (EV 5.36b - Net Debt -2.31b = Equity 7.66b / Shares 112.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.01 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.25 | Revenue CAGR: 63.33% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.20 | Chg30d=+8.29% | Revisions=+69% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.74 | Chg30d=+2.92% | Revisions=+71% | GrowthEPS=-20.3% | GrowthRev=+21.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.93 | Chg30d=+4.39% | Revisions=+69% | GrowthEPS=+25.1% | GrowthRev=+12.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +71%