ASPN Stock Analysis: Aspen Aerogels | NYSE
Building Products & Equipment | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 428m USD | 12M Return: -19.8% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 7.82M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 38.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Aspen Aerogels (NYSE: ASPN) is a U.S.-based aerogel technology company that designs, manufactures, and sells high-performance insulation materials, reporting through two segments: Thermal Barrier and Energy Industrial. Its products, including the PyroThin, Pyrogel, and Cryogel product families, serve diverse applications ranging from EV battery pack thermal management and lithium-ion battery systems to refinery, petrochemical, cryogenic, and subsea oil and gas insulation. The company is headquartered in Northborough, Massachusetts, was founded in 2001, and went public in 2014.
Aerogels are among the lightest solid insulating materials in existence, prized for their extremely low thermal conductivity, which makes them well suited to both extreme-temperature industrial environments and the space- and weight-constrained designs of modern EV battery packs. Despite its GICS classification under Energy Equipment & Services, Aspens business model is increasingly weighted toward EV and energy-storage customers, including battery manufacturers and e-mobility companies, giving it a hybrid exposure to both traditional energy infrastructure and the electric vehicle supply chain.
- PyroThin EV battery thermal barrier revenue accelerates with automaker adoption
- Energy Industrial segment demand tied to oil and gas refinery capex cycles
- Capacity expansion capital raises dilute shareholders amid ongoing cash burn
| Net Income: -112.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 9.47 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 71.55% < 20% (prev 60.07%; Δ 11.48% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 61.4m > Net Income -112.0m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 2.88 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (82.7m) vs 12m ago 0.82% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 11.93% > 18% (prev 39.04%; Δ -27.11% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 47.70% > 50% (prev 78.73%; Δ -31.03% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -8.85 > 6 (EBIT TTM -105.3m / Interest Expense TTM 11.9m) |
| A: 0.40 (Total Current Assets 252.5m - Total Current Liabilities 87.8m) / Total Assets 410.5m |
| B: -2.62 (Retained Earnings -1.07b / Total Assets 410.5m) |
| C: -0.22 (EBIT TTM -105.3m / Avg Total Assets 482.7m) |
| D: 1.08 (Book Value of Equity 213.5m / Total Liabilities 197.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' = -6.22 = D |
| DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 36.4m/77.4m, Revenue 230.3m/436.9m) |
| GMI: 3.27 (GM 39.04% / 11.93%) |
| AQI: 8.25 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.01) |
| SGI: 0.53 (Revenue 230.3m / 436.9m) |
| TATA: -0.42 (NI -112.0m - CFO 61.4m) / TA 410.5m) |
| Beneish M = 2.86 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of July 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 5.27 with a total of 623,268 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.53%, over one month by -12.75%, over three months by +59.21% and over the past year by -19.79%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 4.80 (which is 8.9% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Aspen Aerogels has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.22. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ASPN.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 6.4 | 20.5% |
P/E Forward = 714.2857
P/S = 1.8572
P/B = 2.0031
Revenue TTM = 230.3m USD
EBIT TTM = -105.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = -59.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 68.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 34.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 165.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 36.3m
Net Debt = -10.5m USD (calculated: Debt 165.1m - CCE 175.6m)
Enterprise Value = 417.2m USD (427.6m + Debt 165.1m - CCE 175.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -8.85 (Ebit TTM -105.3m / Interest Expense TTM 11.9m)
EV/FCF = 11.73x (Enterprise Value 417.2m / FCF TTM 35.6m)
FCF Yield = 8.53% (FCF TTM 35.6m / Enterprise Value 417.2m)
FCF Margin = 15.45% (FCF TTM 35.6m / Revenue TTM 230.3m)
Net Margin = -48.64% (Net Income TTM -112.0m / Revenue TTM 230.3m)
Gross Margin = 11.93% ((Revenue TTM 230.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 202.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.29% (prev -55.47%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.02 (Enterprise Value 417.2m / Total Assets 410.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.21% (Interest Expense 11.9m / Debt 165.1m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -83.2m (EBIT -105.3m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.88 (Total Current Assets 252.5m / Total Current Liabilities 87.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.77 (Debt 165.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 213.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.18 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -10.5m / EBITDA -59.5m)
Debt / FCF = -0.29 (Net Debt -10.5m / FCF TTM 35.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 265.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -23.20% (Net Income -112.0m / Total Assets 410.5m)
RoE = -42.12% (Net Income TTM -112.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 265.9m)
RoCE = -31.52% (EBIT -105.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 265.9m + L.T.Debt 68.3m))
RoIC = -24.09% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -83.2m / Invested Capital 345.4m)
WACC = 10.37% (E(427.6m)/V(592.8m) * Re(12.18%) + D(165.1m)/V(592.8m) * Rd(7.21%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 12.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 83.20 | Cagr: 7.70%
[DCF] Terminal Value 68.68% ; FCFF base≈35.6m ; Y1≈35.7m ; Y5≈37.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 5.41 (EV 437.7m - Net Debt -10.5m = Equity 448.2m / Shares 82.9m; r=10.37% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.16 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 38.82 | Revenue CAGR: 13.85% | SUE: 0.14 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.20 | Chg30d=+4.44% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.13 | Chg30d=+24.93% | Revisions=+50% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.72 | Chg30d=+7.72% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=-46.4% | GrowthRev=-27.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.10 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+85.5% | GrowthRev=+44.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +62% (up=9, down=1)