(ATI) Allegheny Technologies - Overview
Stock: Titanium, Nickel-Alloys, Cobalt-Alloys, Zirconium, Powder-Alloys
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 41.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -17.1% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.62 |
| Alpha | 87.24 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.557 |
| Beta Downside | 1.506 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 38.02% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.23 |
Description: ATI Allegheny Technologies January 04, 2026
Allegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ATI) manufactures and sells specialty metals and complex components worldwide, organized into two segments: High-Performance Materials & Components and Advanced Alloys & Solutions. Its product slate spans titanium and titanium-based alloys, nickel- and cobalt-based super-alloys, advanced powder alloys, and a range of long forms (ingot, billet, bar, wire, seamless tubes) as well as precision forgings and machined parts.
The company also produces zirconium, hafnium, niobium, and other specialty alloys in plate, sheet, and precision-rolled strip formats, and it offers hot-rolling conversion services for carbon-steel products. ATI serves a diversified end-market base that includes medical and specialty energy, aerospace & defense, construction & mining, transportation, oil & gas, automotive, and food-equipment/appliance manufacturers.
Key quantitative points (FY 2023): revenue of roughly $3.2 billion, adjusted EBITDA margin near 8 %, and a free-cash-flow conversion of about 1.2 × EBITDA. The business is highly sensitive to aerospace demand cycles and defense-spending trends, while titanium price dynamics-driven by supply constraints in primary producers-remain a material cost driver. Capacity utilization in the Advanced Alloys segment has hovered around 85 % in recent quarters, reflecting steady order flow from aerospace OEMs.
For a deeper quantitative view, you may find ValueRay’s detailed model on ATI useful for assessing these drivers and valuation sensitivities.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 9.5
| Net Income: 444.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.21 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 34.84% < 20% (prev 43.10%; Δ -8.26% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 679.4m > Net Income 444.8m |
| Net Debt (1.53b) to EBITDA (778.9m): 1.97 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.50 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (141.0m) vs 12m ago -3.93% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 21.90% > 18% (prev 0.21%; Δ 2169 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 91.04% > 50% (prev 83.96%; Δ 7.07% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.42 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 778.9m / Interest Expense TTM 99.7m) |
Altman Z'' 3.30
| A: 0.32 (Total Current Assets 2.66b - Total Current Liabilities 1.06b) / Total Assets 5.00b |
| B: 0.07 (Retained Earnings 372.2m / Total Assets 5.00b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 640.5m / Avg Total Assets 5.03b) |
| D: 0.10 (Book Value of Equity 327.6m / Total Liabilities 3.18b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.30 = A |
Beneish M -3.19
| DSRI: 0.91 (Receivables 804.2m/820.7m, Revenue 4.58b/4.25b) |
| GMI: 0.95 (GM 21.90% / 20.85%) |
| AQI: 0.92 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.11) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 4.58b / 4.25b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 444.8m - CFO 679.4m) / TA 5.00b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.19 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of ATI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.13%, over one month by +4.36%, over three months by +18.17% and over the past year by +102.13%.
Is ATI a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ATI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 133 | 9.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 133 | 9.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 176 | 44.6% |
ATI Fundamental Data Overview January 24, 2026
P/E Forward = 31.8471
P/S = 3.7025
P/B = 9.9227
P/EG = 1.1952
Revenue TTM = 4.58b USD
EBIT TTM = 640.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 778.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.72b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 191.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.91b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.53b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 18.50b USD (16.97b + Debt 1.91b - CCE 372.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.42 (Ebit TTM 640.5m / Interest Expense TTM 99.7m)
EV/FCF = 36.52x (Enterprise Value 18.50b / FCF TTM 506.7m)
FCF Yield = 2.74% (FCF TTM 506.7m / Enterprise Value 18.50b)
FCF Margin = 11.06% (FCF TTM 506.7m / Revenue TTM 4.58b)
Net Margin = 9.71% (Net Income TTM 444.8m / Revenue TTM 4.58b)
Gross Margin = 21.90% ((Revenue TTM 4.58b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.58b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.68% (prev 21.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.70 (Enterprise Value 18.50b / Total Assets 5.00b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.37% (Interest Expense 26.1m / Debt 1.91b)
Taxrate = 21.44% (31.0m / 144.6m)
NOPAT = 503.2m (EBIT 640.5m * (1 - 21.44%))
Current Ratio = 2.50 (Total Current Assets 2.66b / Total Current Liabilities 1.06b)
Debt / Equity = 1.12 (Debt 1.91b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.71b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.97 (Net Debt 1.53b / EBITDA 778.9m)
Debt / FCF = 3.03 (Net Debt 1.53b / FCF TTM 506.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.79b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.84% (Net Income 444.8m / Total Assets 5.00b)
RoE = 24.80% (Net Income TTM 444.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.79b)
RoCE = 18.26% (EBIT 640.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.79b + L.T.Debt 1.72b))
RoIC = 13.64% (NOPAT 503.2m / Invested Capital 3.69b)
WACC = 10.58% (E(16.97b)/V(18.88b) * Re(11.65%) + D(1.91b)/V(18.88b) * Rd(1.37%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.65% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.84%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 59.56% ; FCFF base≈383.3m ; Y1≈251.6m ; Y5≈114.8m
Fair Price DCF = 0.20 (EV 1.56b - Net Debt 1.53b = Equity 26.9m / Shares 135.9m; r=10.58% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 82.87 | EPS CAGR: 38.59% | SUE: 1.35 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 83.74 | Revenue CAGR: 10.83% | SUE: 0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.87 | Chg30d=+0.007 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.88 | Chg30d=+0.004 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+21.9% | Growth Revenue=+8.2%