(ATI) Allegheny Technologies - Ratings and Ratios
Titanium, Nickel Alloys, Superalloys, Zirconium, Specialty Metals
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 43.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 61.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.96% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.43 |
| Alpha | 62.06 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.36 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.616 |
| Beta | 1.526 |
| Beta Downside | 1.527 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 38.02% |
| Mean DD | 9.08% |
| Median DD | 7.75% |
Description: ATI Allegheny Technologies October 31, 2025
Allegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ATI) manufactures and sells specialty metals and complex components worldwide through two operating segments: High-Performance Materials & Components and Advanced Alloys & Solutions. Its product portfolio includes titanium and titanium-based alloys, nickel- and cobalt-based superalloys, advanced powder alloys, and a range of long-form and precision-forged parts, as well as zirconium, hafnium, and niobium alloys in plate, sheet, and rolled-strip formats.
The company serves a diversified set of end-markets-medical and specialty energy, aerospace and defense, construction, mining, transportation, oil & gas, automotive, and food-equipment/appliance manufacturers. ATI is headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and was originally incorporated in 1996 under the same name.
Recent performance metrics (FY 2023) show revenue of roughly $2.1 billion with an adjusted EBITDA margin near 10 %, and a backlog of about $1.2 billion, indicating solid demand visibility. The titanium segment is especially sensitive to aerospace production rates; a 5 % YoY rise in commercial jet deliveries in Q3 2024 lifted titanium alloy prices by ~3 %, boosting ATI’s top line. Conversely, broader steel-industry capacity expansions and higher energy costs remain key headwinds that could compress margins.
For a deeper, data-driven view of ATI’s valuation dynamics and scenario analysis, you might find ValueRay’s analytical tools worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 9.5
| Net Income (444.8m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 275.0m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.10 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 6.21pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 34.84% (prev 43.10%; Δ -8.26pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 (>3.0%) and CFO 679.4m > Net Income 444.8m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (1.53b) to EBITDA (778.9m) ratio: 1.97 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 2.50 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (141.0m) change vs 12m ago -3.93% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 21.90% (prev 20.85%; Δ 1.05pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 91.04% (prev 83.96%; Δ 7.07pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 6.42 (EBITDA TTM 778.9m / Interest Expense TTM 99.7m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.30
| (A) 0.32 = (Total Current Assets 2.66b - Total Current Liabilities 1.06b) / Total Assets 5.00b |
| (B) 0.07 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 372.2m / Total Assets 5.00b |
| (C) 0.13 = EBIT TTM 640.5m / Avg Total Assets 5.03b |
| (D) 0.10 = Book Value of Equity 327.6m / Total Liabilities 3.18b |
| Total Rating: 3.30 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 77.53
| 1. Piotroski 9.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.36% |
| 3. FCF Margin 11.06% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.12 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.97 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 3.30)% |
| 7. RoE 24.80% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 83.74% |
| 9. EPS Trend 82.87% |
What is the price of ATI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.47%, over one month by +6.76%, over three months by +37.10% and over the past year by +83.45%.
Is ATI a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ATI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 118.3 | 12.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 118.3 | 12.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 160.2 | 53% |
ATI Fundamental Data Overview December 05, 2025
P/E Trailing = 31.835
P/E Forward = 21.7865
P/S = 2.9584
P/B = 7.8908
P/EG = 1.1952
Beta = 1.075
Revenue TTM = 4.58b USD
EBIT TTM = 640.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 778.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.72b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 191.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.91b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.53b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 15.09b USD (13.56b + Debt 1.91b - CCE 372.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.42 (Ebit TTM 640.5m / Interest Expense TTM 99.7m)
FCF Yield = 3.36% (FCF TTM 506.7m / Enterprise Value 15.09b)
FCF Margin = 11.06% (FCF TTM 506.7m / Revenue TTM 4.58b)
Net Margin = 9.71% (Net Income TTM 444.8m / Revenue TTM 4.58b)
Gross Margin = 21.90% ((Revenue TTM 4.58b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.58b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.68% (prev 21.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.02 (Enterprise Value 15.09b / Total Assets 5.00b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.37% (Interest Expense 26.1m / Debt 1.91b)
Taxrate = 21.44% (31.0m / 144.6m)
NOPAT = 503.2m (EBIT 640.5m * (1 - 21.44%))
Current Ratio = 2.50 (Total Current Assets 2.66b / Total Current Liabilities 1.06b)
Debt / Equity = 1.12 (Debt 1.91b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.71b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.97 (Net Debt 1.53b / EBITDA 778.9m)
Debt / FCF = 3.03 (Net Debt 1.53b / FCF TTM 506.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.79b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.89% (Net Income 444.8m / Total Assets 5.00b)
RoE = 24.80% (Net Income TTM 444.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.79b)
RoCE = 18.26% (EBIT 640.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.79b + L.T.Debt 1.72b))
RoIC = 13.64% (NOPAT 503.2m / Invested Capital 3.69b)
WACC = 10.34% (E(13.56b)/V(15.47b) * Re(11.64%) + D(1.91b)/V(15.47b) * Rd(1.37%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.64% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.84%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 56.15% ; FCFE base≈383.3m ; Y1≈251.7m ; Y5≈115.1m
Fair Price DCF = 10.37 (DCF Value 1.41b / Shares Outstanding 135.9m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 82.87 | EPS CAGR: 38.59% | SUE: 1.35 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 83.74 | Revenue CAGR: 10.83% | SUE: 0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.86 | Chg30d=-0.001 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.86 | Chg30d=+0.134 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=+20.7% | Growth Revenue=+8.0%
Additional Sources for ATI Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle