(ATO) Atmos Energy - Overview
Stock: Natural Gas, Distribution, Pipeline, Storage
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.24% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.61% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 9.03% |
| Payout Consistency | 99.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 68.6% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 16.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -0.89% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.92 |
| Alpha | 13.22 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.164 |
| Beta Downside | 0.152 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 16.87% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.90 |
Description: ATO Atmos Energy December 17, 2025
Atmos Energy (ATO) operates as a regulated natural-gas utility in the United States, split between a Distribution segment that serves roughly 3.4 million customers across eight states via ≈ 76,000 miles of underground mains, and a Pipeline & Storage segment that moves third-party gas and runs five underground storage facilities in Texas, owning about 5,700 miles of transmission lines.
Key metrics from the most recent 10-K (FY 2023) show total revenue of $5.2 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin near 30 %, reflecting the high-margin nature of regulated distribution. The company’s growth is driven primarily by modest demand-side expansion (≈ 1 % annual residential consumption growth) and periodic rate-case approvals that fund infrastructure upgrades. Capital intensity remains a sector hallmark: ATO’s 2023 capex was $1.1 billion, funded largely through regulated earnings and debt at an average cost of 4.5 %.
Broader industry forces that will shape ATO’s outlook include: (1) the transition toward low-carbon gases (e.g., renewable natural gas) that could create new revenue streams; (2) tightening pipeline capacity in key markets, which may increase third-party transport fees; and (3) macro-economic pressure from rising interest rates, which can elevate financing costs for long-term infrastructure projects.
For a deeper quantitative view, the ValueRay platform provides a granular breakdown of ATO’s cash-flow assumptions and sensitivity analyses, which can help you gauge the robustness of its valuation under different scenarios.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 1.20b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.45 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -9.58% < 20% (prev -1.77%; Δ -7.81% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 2.05b > Net Income 1.20b |
| Net Debt (9.10b) to EBITDA (2.38b): 3.82 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.67 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (160.6m) vs 12m ago 4.93% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 52.37% > 18% (prev 0.58%; Δ 5179 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 17.39% > 50% (prev 16.53%; Δ 0.85% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 9.61 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 2.38b / Interest Expense TTM 171.7m) |
Altman Z'' 1.22
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 912.1m - Total Current Liabilities 1.36b) / Total Assets 28.91b |
| B: 0.17 (Retained Earnings 4.86b / Total Assets 28.91b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 1.65b / Avg Total Assets 27.05b) |
| D: 0.35 (Book Value of Equity 5.34b / Total Liabilities 15.35b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.22 = BB |
Beneish M -2.77
| DSRI: 0.90 (Receivables 384.5m/380.2m, Revenue 4.70b/4.17b) |
| GMI: 1.11 (GM 52.37% / 57.92%) |
| AQI: 1.30 (AQ_t 0.08 / AQ_t-1 0.06) |
| SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 4.70b / 4.17b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 1.20b - CFO 2.05b) / TA 28.91b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.77 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of ATO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.18%, over one month by -1.68%, over three months by -3.02% and over the past year by +18.74%.
Is ATO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ATO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 177 | 6.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 177 | 6.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 189.8 | 14% |
ATO Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/E Forward = 21.5517
P/S = 5.7211
P/B = 2.0249
P/EG = 2.7754
Revenue TTM = 4.70b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.65b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.38b USD
Long Term Debt = 8.98b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 65.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 9.30b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 9.10b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 36.01b USD (26.91b + Debt 9.30b - CCE 202.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 9.61 (Ebit TTM 1.65b / Interest Expense TTM 171.7m)
EV/FCF = -23.81x (Enterprise Value 36.01b / FCF TTM -1.51b)
FCF Yield = -4.20% (FCF TTM -1.51b / Enterprise Value 36.01b)
FCF Margin = -32.15% (FCF TTM -1.51b / Revenue TTM 4.70b)
Net Margin = 25.49% (Net Income TTM 1.20b / Revenue TTM 4.70b)
Gross Margin = 52.37% ((Revenue TTM 4.70b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.24b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 56.00% (prev 44.95%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.25 (Enterprise Value 36.01b / Total Assets 28.91b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.35% (Interest Expense 32.3m / Debt 9.30b)
Taxrate = 17.94% (38.2m / 213.1m)
NOPAT = 1.35b (EBIT 1.65b * (1 - 17.94%))
Current Ratio = 0.67 (Total Current Assets 912.1m / Total Current Liabilities 1.36b)
Debt / Equity = 0.69 (Debt 9.30b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 13.56b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.82 (Net Debt 9.10b / EBITDA 2.38b)
Debt / FCF = -6.02 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 9.10b / FCF TTM -1.51b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 13.22b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.43% (Net Income 1.20b / Total Assets 28.91b)
RoE = 9.07% (Net Income TTM 1.20b / Total Stockholder Equity 13.22b)
RoCE = 7.43% (EBIT 1.65b / Capital Employed (Equity 13.22b + L.T.Debt 8.98b))
RoIC = 6.16% (NOPAT 1.35b / Invested Capital 21.97b)
WACC = 4.92% (E(26.91b)/V(36.21b) * Re(6.52%) + D(9.30b)/V(36.21b) * Rd(0.35%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 6.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 3.53%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -1.51b)
EPS Correlation: 4.03 | EPS CAGR: -13.71% | SUE: 0.85 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -10.58 | Revenue CAGR: -8.11% | SUE: -0.08 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=3.34 | Chg30d=+0.081 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=8.20 | Chg30d=+0.090 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=+9.9% | Growth Revenue=+17.0%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=8.76 | Chg30d=+0.085 | Revisions Net=+5 | Growth EPS=+6.9% | Growth Revenue=+9.7%