AVB Stock Analysis: AvalonBay Communities | NYSE
REIT - Residential | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 26.505m USD | 12M Return: 7.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 149M
EPS Trend: -49.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (NYSE: AVB) is a large-cap equity REIT and S&P 500 constituent that develops, redevelops, acquires, and manages apartment communities concentrated in high-barrier coastal metropolitan areas, including New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, with expansion markets in Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte (NC), Southeast Florida, Dallas and Austin (TX), and Denver (CO). As of December 31, 2025, the company held ownership interests in 320 communities containing 98,694 apartment homes across 11 states and the District of Columbia, with 24 communities in active development. The company was incorporated in 1978 in Maryland and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.
As a multi-family residential REIT, AvalonBay generates revenue primarily through rental income from its owned apartment portfolio, with the development pipeline providing a source of future growth. Equity REITs like AVB are required by U.S. tax law to distribute at least 90% of their taxable income to shareholders as dividends, which generally makes REITs income-oriented investments compared to broader equities.
- Same-store NOI growth driven by coastal market rent gains
- Sunbelt expansion regions deliver new supply and development pipeline
- Higher interest rates pressure borrowing costs and cap rate spreads
| Net Income: 1.03b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.88 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -53.80% < 20% (prev -38.37%; Δ -15.42% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 1.66b > Net Income 1.03b |
| Net Debt (9.41b) to EBITDA (1.89b): 4.99 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.05 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (141.8m) vs 12m ago -1.02% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 52.69% > 18% (prev 63.00%; Δ -10.31% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 13.96% > 50% (prev 13.65%; Δ 0.31% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.46 > 6 (EBIT TTM 956.3m / Interest Expense TTM 276.1m) |
| A: -0.07 (Total Current Assets 80.7m - Total Current Liabilities 1.74b) / Total Assets 22.3b |
| B: 0.01 (Retained Earnings 242.2m / Total Assets 22.3b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 956.3m / Avg Total Assets 22.1b) |
| D: 1.19 (Book Value of Equity 12.0b / Total Liabilities 10.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.09 = BB |
As of August 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 188.78 with a total of 394,503 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.65%, over one month by -2.87%, over three months by +4.44% and over the past year by +7.42%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 183.60 (which is 2.7% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
AvalonBay Communities has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.63. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AVB.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 14
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 201.3 | 6.6% |
P/E Trailing = 25.4959
P/E Forward = 40.9836
P/S = 8.5991
P/B = 2.2046
P/EG = 6.972
Revenue TTM = 3.08b USD
EBIT TTM = 956.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.89b USD
Long Term Debt = 8.11b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 915.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 9.49b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year) + Leases 162.4m
Net Debt = 9.41b USD (calculated: Debt 9.49b - CCE 80.7m)
Enterprise Value = 35.9b USD (26.5b + Debt 9.49b - CCE 80.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.46 (Ebit TTM 956.3m / Interest Expense TTM 276.1m)
EV/FCF = 22.28x (Enterprise Value 35.9b / FCF TTM 1.61b)
FCF Yield = 4.49% (FCF TTM 1.61b / Enterprise Value 35.9b)
FCF Margin = 52.32% (FCF TTM 1.61b / Revenue TTM 3.08b)
Net Margin = 33.39% (Net Income TTM 1.03b / Revenue TTM 3.08b)
Gross Margin = 52.69% ((Revenue TTM 3.08b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.46b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 3.33% (prev 67.73%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.61 (Enterprise Value 35.9b / Total Assets 22.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.91% (Interest Expense 276.1m / Debt 9.49b)
Taxrate = 0.04% (70.0k / 157.0m)
NOPAT = 955.8m (EBIT 956.3m * (1 - 0.04%))
Current Ratio = 0.05 (Total Current Assets 80.7m / Total Current Liabilities 1.74b)
Debt / Equity = 0.79 (Debt 9.49b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 12.0b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.99 (Net Debt 9.41b / EBITDA 1.89b)
Debt / FCF = 5.84 (Net Debt 9.41b / FCF TTM 1.61b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 11.8b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.66% (Net Income 1.03b / Total Assets 22.3b)
RoE = 8.74% (Net Income TTM 1.03b / Total Stockholder Equity 11.8b)
RoCE = 4.81% (EBIT 956.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 11.8b + L.T.Debt 8.11b))
RoIC = 4.50% (NOPAT 955.8m / Invested Capital 21.2b)
WACC = 5.66% (E(26.5b)/V(36.0b) * Re(6.65%) + D(9.49b)/V(36.0b) * Rd(2.91%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 6.65% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -33.36 | Cagr: -0.12%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈1.52b ; Y1≈1.74b ; Y5≈2.57b
[DCF] Fair Price = 204.7 (EV 38.6b - Net Debt 9.41b = Equity 29.2b / Shares 142.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -49.93 | EPS CAGR: -8.03% | SUE: 0.12 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.57 | Revenue CAGR: 4.57% | SUE: 0.72 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.10 | Chg30d=-0.43% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.53 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-9.7% | GrowthRev=+2.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.87 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+7.7% | GrowthRev=+3.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=1, down=6)