AVB Stock Analysis: AvalonBay Communities | NYSE
REIT - Residential | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 27.330m USD | 12M Return: -0.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 223M
EPS Trend: -67.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (NYSE: AVB) is a large-cap equity REIT and S&P 500 constituent that develops, redevelops, acquires, and manages apartment communities concentrated in high-barrier coastal metropolitan areas, including New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, with expansion markets in Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte (NC), Southeast Florida, Dallas and Austin (TX), and Denver (CO). As of December 31, 2025, the company held ownership interests in 320 communities containing 98,694 apartment homes across 11 states and the District of Columbia, with 24 communities in active development. The company was incorporated in 1978 in Maryland and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.
As a multi-family residential REIT, AvalonBay generates revenue primarily through rental income from its owned apartment portfolio, with the development pipeline providing a source of future growth. Equity REITs like AVB are required by U.S. tax law to distribute at least 90% of their taxable income to shareholders as dividends, which generally makes REITs income-oriented investments compared to broader equities.
- Same-store NOI growth driven by coastal market rent gains
- Sunbelt expansion regions deliver new supply and development pipeline
- Higher interest rates pressure borrowing costs and cap rate spreads
| Net Income: 1.14b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.18 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -17.62% < 20% (prev -26.02%; Δ 8.40% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 1.67b > Net Income 1.14b |
| Net Debt (9.40b) to EBITDA (1.99b): 4.72 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.35 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (140.8m) vs 12m ago -1.17% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 67.92% > 18% (prev 63.13%; Δ 4.79% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 14.14% > 50% (prev 13.89%; Δ 0.25% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.93 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.06b / Interest Expense TTM 270.8m) |
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 291.1m - Total Current Liabilities 830.9m) / Total Assets 22.1b |
| B: 0.02 (Retained Earnings 339.6m / Total Assets 22.1b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 1.06b / Avg Total Assets 21.7b) |
| D: 1.10 (Book Value of Equity 11.5b / Total Liabilities 10.4b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.38 = BB |
As of July 05, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 193.96 with a total of 659,200 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.18%, over one month by +6.87%, over three months by +17.60% and over the past year by -0.45%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 184.10 (which is 5.1% or 2.6 ATR below the current price).
AvalonBay Communities has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.63. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AVB.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 14
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 196.8 | 1.5% |
P/E Trailing = 23.8711
P/E Forward = 42.0168
P/S = 8.8144
P/B = 2.3473
P/EG = 6.972
Revenue TTM = 3.06b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.06b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.99b USD
Long Term Debt = 8.59b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 769.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 9.52b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 163.5m
Net Debt = 9.40b USD (calculated: Debt 9.52b - CCE 121.2m)
Enterprise Value = 36.7b USD (27.3b + Debt 9.52b - CCE 121.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.93 (Ebit TTM 1.06b / Interest Expense TTM 270.8m)
EV/FCF = 24.44x (Enterprise Value 36.7b / FCF TTM 1.50b)
FCF Yield = 4.09% (FCF TTM 1.50b / Enterprise Value 36.7b)
FCF Margin = 49.07% (FCF TTM 1.50b / Revenue TTM 3.06b)
Net Margin = 37.27% (Net Income TTM 1.14b / Revenue TTM 3.06b)
Gross Margin = 67.92% ((Revenue TTM 3.06b - Cost of Revenue TTM 982.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 67.73% (prev 68.23%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.66 (Enterprise Value 36.7b / Total Assets 22.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.84% (Interest Expense 270.8m / Debt 9.52b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 840.1m (EBIT 1.06b * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.35 (Total Current Assets 291.1m / Total Current Liabilities 830.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.83 (Debt 9.52b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 11.5b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.72 (Net Debt 9.40b / EBITDA 1.99b)
Debt / FCF = 6.25 (Net Debt 9.40b / FCF TTM 1.50b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 11.7b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.27% (Net Income 1.14b / Total Assets 22.1b)
RoE = 9.72% (Net Income TTM 1.14b / Total Stockholder Equity 11.7b)
RoCE = 5.23% (EBIT 1.06b / Capital Employed (Equity 11.7b + L.T.Debt 8.59b))
RoIC = 3.83% (NOPAT 840.1m / Invested Capital 21.9b)
WACC = 5.47% (E(27.3b)/V(36.9b) * Re(6.59%) + D(9.52b)/V(36.9b) * Rd(2.84%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.59% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 11.11 | Cagr: -0.44%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.34% ; FCFF base≈1.46b ; Y1≈1.56b ; Y5≈1.85b
[DCF] Fair Price = 134.1 (EV 28.4b - Net Debt 9.40b = Equity 19.0b / Shares 141.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 7.15% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -67.80 | EPS CAGR: -12.47% | SUE: -0.27 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.80 | Revenue CAGR: 4.81% | SUE: 0.45 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.09 | Chg30d=-6.67% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.10 | Chg30d=-2.48% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.52 | Chg30d=-3.05% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-9.7% | GrowthRev=+2.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.87 | Chg30d=-1.43% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+7.7% | GrowthRev=+3.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -58% (up=1, down=8)