(AVB) AvalonBay Communities - Ratings and Ratios
Apartment Homes, Development, Redevelopment, Property Management
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.82% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.94% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 1.69% |
| Payout Consistency | 97.9% |
| Payout Ratio | 116.0% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 19.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 31.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 0.14% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.09 |
| Alpha | -30.49 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.23 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.512 |
| Beta | 0.613 |
| Beta Downside | 0.758 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 24.36% |
| Mean DD | 7.69% |
| Median DD | 6.66% |
Description: AVB AvalonBay Communities October 14, 2025
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (AVB) is a S&P 500-listed equity REIT that develops, redevelops, acquires, and manages multifamily apartment assets across 11 states and the District of Columbia. As of June 30 2025 the firm owned or held interests in 315 communities comprising 97,212 apartment homes, with 20 additional projects under construction, concentrated in high-growth metros such as New England, New York/New Jersey, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, California, and emerging markets like Raleigh-Durham, Charlotte, Southeast Florida, Dallas, Austin, and Denver.
Key operating metrics that investors watch include an occupancy rate that has consistently hovered around 96% in 2024-25, reflecting strong demand in the company’s core markets. Rent growth has outpaced the national average, averaging roughly 4% year-over-year in 2024, driven by limited supply and robust job growth in tech-heavy regions. The REIT’s weighted-average lease-up cost remains below industry peers at about $12,000 per unit, supporting higher net operating income margins. On the macro side, the sector is sensitive to Federal Reserve policy; a 25-basis-point rise in rates typically compresses cap rates by 5-10 bps, which can modestly depress AVB’s valuation multiples.
For a deeper, data-driven view of AVB’s valuation dynamics and scenario analysis, you may find ValueRay’s interactive dashboards worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (1.17b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 180.7m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.07 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.35pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -24.78% (prev -0.56%; Δ -24.22pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.60b > Net Income 1.17b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (8.77b) to EBITDA (2.32b) ratio: 3.79 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.30 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (143.5m) change vs 12m ago 0.71% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 65.44% (prev 63.79%; Δ 1.66pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 13.92% (prev 13.51%; Δ 0.42pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 5.70 (EBITDA TTM 2.32b / Interest Expense TTM 249.1m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.38
| (A) -0.03 = (Total Current Assets 321.9m - Total Current Liabilities 1.07b) / Total Assets 21.95b |
| (B) 0.03 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 638.9m / Total Assets 21.95b |
| (C) 0.07 = EBIT TTM 1.42b / Avg Total Assets 21.63b |
| (D) 0.07 = Book Value of Equity 666.5m / Total Liabilities 9.79b |
| Total Rating: 0.38 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 68.03
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 4.53% |
| 3. FCF Margin 51.22% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.74 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.79 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 0.67)% |
| 7. RoE 9.79% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 97.64% |
| 9. EPS Trend 0.40% |
What is the price of AVB shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.70%, over one month by -1.18%, over three months by -5.66% and over the past year by -20.05%.
Is AVB a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 14
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AVB price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 207.4 | 14% |
| Analysts Target Price | 207.4 | 14% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 175.8 | -3.4% |
AVB Fundamental Data Overview November 20, 2025
P/E Trailing = 21.6354
P/E Forward = 33.7838
P/S = 8.2399
P/B = 2.1054
P/EG = 6.972
Beta = 0.748
Revenue TTM = 3.01b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.42b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.32b USD
Long Term Debt = 8.49b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 235.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 8.89b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 8.77b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 34.03b USD (25.26b + Debt 8.89b - CCE 123.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.70 (Ebit TTM 1.42b / Interest Expense TTM 249.1m)
FCF Yield = 4.53% (FCF TTM 1.54b / Enterprise Value 34.03b)
FCF Margin = 51.22% (FCF TTM 1.54b / Revenue TTM 3.01b)
Net Margin = 38.81% (Net Income TTM 1.17b / Revenue TTM 3.01b)
Gross Margin = 65.44% ((Revenue TTM 3.01b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.04b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 72.12% (prev 63.57%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.55 (Enterprise Value 34.03b / Total Assets 21.95b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.74% (Interest Expense 65.4m / Debt 8.89b)
Taxrate = -0.05% (negative due to tax credits) (-193.0k / 384.0m)
NOPAT = 1.42b (EBIT 1.42b * (1 - -0.05%)) [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 0.30 (Total Current Assets 321.9m / Total Current Liabilities 1.07b)
Debt / Equity = 0.74 (Debt 8.89b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 11.94b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.79 (Net Debt 8.77b / EBITDA 2.32b)
Debt / FCF = 5.69 (Net Debt 8.77b / FCF TTM 1.54b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 11.94b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.32% (Net Income 1.17b / Total Assets 21.95b)
RoE = 9.79% (Net Income TTM 1.17b / Total Stockholder Equity 11.94b)
RoCE = 6.96% (EBIT 1.42b / Capital Employed (Equity 11.94b + L.T.Debt 8.49b))
RoIC = 6.98% (NOPAT 1.42b / Invested Capital 20.38b)
WACC = 6.31% (E(25.26b)/V(34.15b) * Re(8.27%) + D(8.89b)/V(34.15b) * Rd(0.74%) * (1-Tc(-0.00)))
Discount Rate = 8.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.46%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 78.62% ; FCFE base≈1.49b ; Y1≈1.62b ; Y5≈2.01b
Fair Price DCF = 237.0 (DCF Value 33.55b / Shares Outstanding 141.6m; 5y FCF grow 9.27% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 0.40 | EPS CAGR: -13.36% | SUE: -0.55 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.64 | Revenue CAGR: 6.63% | SUE: -0.58 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for AVB Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle