(AVB) AvalonBay Communities - Overview
Stock: Apartment, Communities, Development, Management, Rental
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.56% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.78% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 2.43% |
| Payout Consistency | 98.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 139.9% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 28.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -0.57% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.98 |
| Alpha | -31.00 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.623 |
| Beta Downside | 0.802 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 25.49% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.09 |
Description: AVB AvalonBay Communities December 17, 2025
AvalonBay Communities (AVB) is a S&P 500-listed equity REIT focused on the development, acquisition, redevelopment, and management of multifamily apartments across premium U.S. metros. As of September 30 2025 the company controlled 314 communities-totaling 97,219 units-in 11 states and D.C., with 21 projects still under construction, spanning markets from New England and the NY/NJ metro to growth corridors such as Raleigh-Durham, Charlotte, Dallas, Austin, and Denver.
Key performance indicators that shape AVB’s outlook include a FY 2024 occupancy rate of roughly 96 % and an average rent growth of about 4 % year-over-year, driven by tight supply in high-cost cities and robust household formation among millennials and Gen Z. The REIT reported FY 2024 funds-from-operations (FFO) of $5.30 per share, reflecting both stable cash flow and disciplined capital allocation. Sector-wide, the multifamily market remains sensitive to Federal Reserve policy; higher interest rates can pressure cap rates but also limit new construction, preserving AVB’s inventory advantage in constrained markets.
For a deeper, data-driven analysis of AVB’s valuation metrics and scenario modeling, you might find ValueRay’s research platform useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 1.05b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.18 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -18.18% < 20% (prev -16.45%; Δ -1.73% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 1.60b > Net Income 1.05b |
| Net Debt (9.14b) to EBITDA (2.22b): 4.12 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.25 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (142.0m) vs 12m ago -0.50% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 66.99% > 18% (prev 0.63%; Δ 6636 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 14.07% > 50% (prev 13.87%; Δ 0.20% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.05 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 2.22b / Interest Expense TTM 259.2m) |
Altman Z'' 1.54
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 187.2m - Total Current Liabilities 739.6m) / Total Assets 22.19b |
| B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 638.9m / Total Assets 22.19b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 1.31b / Avg Total Assets 21.60b) |
| D: 1.14 (Book Value of Equity 11.83b / Total Liabilities 10.36b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.54 = BB |
What is the price of AVB shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.16%, over one month by -5.39%, over three months by +0.14% and over the past year by -18.80%.
Is AVB a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 14
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AVB price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 200.1 | 15.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 200.1 | 15.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 175.8 | 1.1% |
AVB Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 33.8983
P/S = 7.8381
P/B = 2.109
P/EG = 6.972
Revenue TTM = 3.04b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.31b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.22b USD
Long Term Debt = 8.49b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 739.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 9.33b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 9.14b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 33.17b USD (24.03b + Debt 9.33b - CCE 187.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.05 (Ebit TTM 1.31b / Interest Expense TTM 259.2m)
EV/FCF = 21.50x (Enterprise Value 33.17b / FCF TTM 1.54b)
FCF Yield = 4.65% (FCF TTM 1.54b / Enterprise Value 33.17b)
FCF Margin = 50.76% (FCF TTM 1.54b / Revenue TTM 3.04b)
Net Margin = 34.64% (Net Income TTM 1.05b / Revenue TTM 3.04b)
Gross Margin = 66.99% ((Revenue TTM 3.04b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.00b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 68.23% (prev 72.12%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.49 (Enterprise Value 33.17b / Total Assets 22.19b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.74% (Interest Expense 69.1m / Debt 9.33b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 1.03b (EBIT 1.31b * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.25 (Total Current Assets 187.2m / Total Current Liabilities 739.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.79 (Debt 9.33b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 11.83b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.12 (Net Debt 9.14b / EBITDA 2.22b)
Debt / FCF = 5.93 (Net Debt 9.14b / FCF TTM 1.54b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 11.91b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.87% (Net Income 1.05b / Total Assets 22.19b)
RoE = 8.84% (Net Income TTM 1.05b / Total Stockholder Equity 11.91b)
RoCE = 6.41% (EBIT 1.31b / Capital Employed (Equity 11.91b + L.T.Debt 8.49b))
RoIC = 5.04% (NOPAT 1.03b / Invested Capital 20.50b)
WACC = 6.08% (E(24.03b)/V(33.36b) * Re(8.21%) + D(9.33b)/V(33.36b) * Rd(0.74%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.21% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.08%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 86.38% ; FCFF base≈1.49b ; Y1≈1.62b ; Y5≈2.00b
Fair Price DCF = 331.4 (EV 55.91b - Net Debt 9.14b = Equity 46.77b / Shares 141.1m; r=6.08% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 9.27% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 7.56 | EPS CAGR: 9.76% | SUE: -0.25 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.91 | Revenue CAGR: 6.15% | SUE: 0.77 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.27 | Chg30d=-0.065 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.26 | Chg30d=+0.074 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+5.0% | Growth Revenue=+3.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.49 | Chg30d=-0.179 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+4.4% | Growth Revenue=+5.8%