(AVB) AvalonBay Communities - Overview
Stock: Apartment, Communities, Development, Management, Rental
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.56% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.81% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 2.43% |
| Payout Consistency | 98.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 116.8% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 20.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -0.95% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.98 |
| Alpha | -29.77 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.608 |
| Beta Downside | 0.777 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 24.36% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.11 |
Description: AVB AvalonBay Communities December 17, 2025
AvalonBay Communities (AVB) is a S&P 500-listed equity REIT focused on the development, acquisition, redevelopment, and management of multifamily apartments across premium U.S. metros. As of September 30 2025 the company controlled 314 communities-totaling 97,219 units-in 11 states and D.C., with 21 projects still under construction, spanning markets from New England and the NY/NJ metro to growth corridors such as Raleigh-Durham, Charlotte, Dallas, Austin, and Denver.
Key performance indicators that shape AVB’s outlook include a FY 2024 occupancy rate of roughly 96 % and an average rent growth of about 4 % year-over-year, driven by tight supply in high-cost cities and robust household formation among millennials and Gen Z. The REIT reported FY 2024 funds-from-operations (FFO) of $5.30 per share, reflecting both stable cash flow and disciplined capital allocation. Sector-wide, the multifamily market remains sensitive to Federal Reserve policy; higher interest rates can pressure cap rates but also limit new construction, preserving AVB’s inventory advantage in constrained markets.
For a deeper, data-driven analysis of AVB’s valuation metrics and scenario modeling, you might find ValueRay’s research platform useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 1.17b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.35 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -24.78% < 20% (prev -0.56%; Δ -24.22% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 1.60b > Net Income 1.17b |
| Net Debt (8.77b) to EBITDA (2.32b): 3.79 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.30 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (143.5m) vs 12m ago 0.71% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 65.44% > 18% (prev 0.64%; Δ 6480 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 13.92% > 50% (prev 13.51%; Δ 0.42% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.70 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 2.32b / Interest Expense TTM 249.1m) |
Altman Z'' 0.38
| A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 321.9m - Total Current Liabilities 1.07b) / Total Assets 21.95b |
| B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 638.9m / Total Assets 21.95b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 1.42b / Avg Total Assets 21.63b) |
| D: 0.07 (Book Value of Equity 666.5m / Total Liabilities 9.79b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.38 = B |
What is the price of AVB shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.99%, over one month by -3.32%, over three months by +0.33% and over the past year by -18.04%.
Is AVB a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 14
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AVB price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 200.2 | 14.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 200.2 | 14.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 176.6 | 1.3% |
AVB Fundamental Data Overview January 29, 2026
P/E Forward = 33.557
P/S = 8.1758
P/B = 2.0879
P/EG = 6.4907
Revenue TTM = 3.01b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.42b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.32b USD
Long Term Debt = 8.49b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 235.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 8.89b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 8.77b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 33.83b USD (25.06b + Debt 8.89b - CCE 123.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.70 (Ebit TTM 1.42b / Interest Expense TTM 249.1m)
EV/FCF = 21.94x (Enterprise Value 33.83b / FCF TTM 1.54b)
FCF Yield = 4.56% (FCF TTM 1.54b / Enterprise Value 33.83b)
FCF Margin = 51.22% (FCF TTM 1.54b / Revenue TTM 3.01b)
Net Margin = 38.81% (Net Income TTM 1.17b / Revenue TTM 3.01b)
Gross Margin = 65.44% ((Revenue TTM 3.01b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.04b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 72.12% (prev 63.57%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.54 (Enterprise Value 33.83b / Total Assets 21.95b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.74% (Interest Expense 65.4m / Debt 8.89b)
Taxrate = 0.04% (445.0k / 1.08b)
NOPAT = 1.42b (EBIT 1.42b * (1 - 0.04%))
Current Ratio = 0.30 (Total Current Assets 321.9m / Total Current Liabilities 1.07b)
Debt / Equity = 0.74 (Debt 8.89b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 11.94b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.79 (Net Debt 8.77b / EBITDA 2.32b)
Debt / FCF = 5.69 (Net Debt 8.77b / FCF TTM 1.54b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 11.94b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.40% (Net Income 1.17b / Total Assets 21.95b)
RoE = 9.79% (Net Income TTM 1.17b / Total Stockholder Equity 11.94b)
RoCE = 6.96% (EBIT 1.42b / Capital Employed (Equity 11.94b + L.T.Debt 8.49b))
RoIC = 6.97% (NOPAT 1.42b / Invested Capital 20.38b)
WACC = 6.22% (E(25.06b)/V(33.96b) * Re(8.16%) + D(8.89b)/V(33.96b) * Rd(0.74%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 8.16% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.46%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.84% ; FCFF base≈1.49b ; Y1≈1.62b ; Y5≈2.00b
Fair Price DCF = 316.4 (EV 53.57b - Net Debt 8.77b = Equity 44.80b / Shares 141.6m; r=6.22% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 9.27% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -21.23 | EPS CAGR: -41.48% | SUE: -2.70 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.53 | Revenue CAGR: 6.63% | SUE: -0.58 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.27 | Chg30d=-0.065 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.13 | Chg30d=-0.089 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+6.0% | Growth Revenue=+3.7%