AWR Stock Analysis: American States Water | NYSE

Water, Electricity, Wastewater, Contracted Services

Total Rating 67

Safety 68

Buy Signal -0.34

Utilities - Regulated Water
Industry Rotation: +2.9

Market Cap: 3.46B
Avg Turnover: 16.6M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility20.8%

VaR 5^th Pctl3.54%

VaR vs Median3.49%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.87

Rel. Str. IBD71.3

Rel. Str. Peer Group93.1

Character TTM

Beta-0.268

Beta Downside-0.199

Hurst Exponent0.411

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD20.49%

CAGR/Max DD0.22

CAGR/Mean DD0.52

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 10.22%
EPS Trend: 98.0%

Last SUE: 3.09
Qual. Beats: 1

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 6.82%
Rev. Trend: 87.3%

Last SUE: 0.04
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Fakeout

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan -1.7% 31

Feb -3.8% 20

Mar +1.3% 11

Apr +0.3% 5

May +1.1% 32

Jun +0.6% 2

Jul +1.9% 33

Aug -0.1% 0

Sep -1.1% 36

Oct +0.3% 0

Nov +4.4% 51

Dec -0.3% 13

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: AWR American States Water

American States Water Company (NYSE: AWR) is a U.S. utility holding company that provides water and electric services to residential, commercial, industrial, and other customers through three operating segments: Water, Electric, and Contracted Services. The company purchases, produces, distributes, and sells water, and also distributes electricity. As a regulated water utility (GICS Sub Industry: Water Utilities), AWR operates under a rate-regulated business model in which returns are typically determined by state public utility commissions based on an authorized rate base, providing relatively stable, predictable cash flows characteristic of the utilities sector.

AWR serves approximately 265,100 water customers and distributes electricity to approximately 24,900 customers in several San Bernardino County Mountain communities in California. In addition to its regulated utility operations, the company provides water and/or wastewater services at various military installations through its Contracted Services segment, which represents a non-regulated, contract-based business line that distinguishes AWR from pure-play regulated water utilities.

The company was founded in 1929, is headquartered in San Dimas, California, and trades on the NYSE as a mid-cap stock with a market capitalization of approximately $3.0 billion USD. Water utilities typically appeal to income-oriented investors due to their defensive characteristics, recurring revenue streams, and consistent dividend payments.

Headlines to Watch Out For

CPUC rate case decision lifts authorized return on equity
Military base contracts drive contracted services revenue growth
California drought accelerates water infrastructure capital expenditure

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 4.0

Net Income: 143.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.87 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -0.66% < 20% (prev 14.65%; Δ -15.31% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 236.6m > Net Income 143.1m
Net Debt (898.2m) to EBITDA (261.5m): 3.43 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.98 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (39.5m) vs 12m ago 2.16% < -2%
Gross Margin: 57.02% > 18% (prev 74.68%; Δ -17.66% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 25.90% > 50% (prev 23.60%; Δ 2.31% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.50 > 6 (EBIT TTM 210.7m / Interest Expense TTM 46.9m)

Altman Z'' 2.00

A: -0.00 (Total Current Assets 226.5m - Total Current Liabilities 231.1m) / Total Assets 2.77b
B: 0.24 (Retained Earnings 654.0m / Total Assets 2.77b)
C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 210.7m / Avg Total Assets 2.69b)
D: 0.68 (Book Value of Equity 1.12b / Total Liabilities 1.65b)
Altman-Z'' = 2.00 = BBB

Beneish M -2.94

DSRI: 0.62 (Receivables 106.5m/152.0m, Revenue 697.5m/616.0m)
GMI: 1.31 (GM 74.68% / 57.02%)
AQI: 1.04 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.06)
SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 697.5m / 616.0m)
TATA: -0.03 (NI 143.1m - CFO 236.6m) / TA 2.77b)
Beneish M = -2.94 (Cap -4..+1) = A

What is the price of AWR shares?

As of September 21, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 85.57 with a total of 511,462 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.05%, over one month by -3.76%, over three months by +11.66% and over the past year by +22.17%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 83.40 (which is 2.5% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is AWR a buy, sell or hold?

American States Water has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AWR.

StrongBuy: 1
Buy: 0
Hold: 1
Sell: 1
StrongSell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the AWR price?

Analysts Target Price	84	-1.8%

American States Water (AWR) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 17 September 2026

Market Cap USD = 3.46b (3.46b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 23.6233
P/E Forward = 22.9885
P/S = 4.9536
P/B = 3.0553
P/EG = 2.9777
Revenue TTM = 697.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 210.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 261.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 836.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 75.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 919.8m USD (corrected: LT Debt 836.7m + ST Debt 75.6m) + Leases 7.53m
Net Debt = 898.2m USD (calculated: Debt 919.8m - CCE 21.7m)
Enterprise Value = 4.35b USD (3.46b + Debt 919.8m - CCE 21.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.50 (Ebit TTM 210.7m / Interest Expense TTM 46.9m)
EV/FCF = 209.8x (Enterprise Value 4.35b / FCF TTM 20.7m)
FCF Yield = 0.48% (FCF TTM 20.7m / Enterprise Value 4.35b)
FCF Margin = 2.97% (FCF TTM 20.7m / Revenue TTM 697.5m)
Net Margin = 20.52% (Net Income TTM 143.1m / Revenue TTM 697.5m)
Gross Margin = 57.02% ((Revenue TTM 697.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 299.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 70.06% (prev 51.75%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.57 (Enterprise Value 4.35b / Total Assets 2.77b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.10% (Interest Expense 46.9m / Debt 919.8m)
Taxrate = 23.92% (45.0m / 188.1m)
NOPAT = 160.3m (EBIT 210.7m * (1 - 23.92%))
Current Ratio = 0.98 (Total Current Assets 226.5m / Total Current Liabilities 231.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.82 (Debt 919.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.12b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.43 (Net Debt 898.2m / EBITDA 261.5m)
Debt / FCF = 43.30 (Net Debt 898.2m / FCF TTM 20.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.06b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.32% (Net Income 143.1m / Total Assets 2.77b)
RoE = 13.50% (Net Income TTM 143.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.06b)
RoCE = 11.11% (EBIT 210.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.06b + L.T.Debt 836.7m))
RoIC = 6.17% (NOPAT 160.3m / Invested Capital 2.60b)
WACC = 4.80% (E(3.46b)/V(4.37b) * Re(5.04%) + D(919.8m)/V(4.37b) * Rd(5.10%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 5.04% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 98.44 | Cagr: 2.79%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈20.7m ; Y1≈20.8m ; Y5≈22.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 343.2m - Net Debt 898.2m = -555.0m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 98.01 | EPS CAGR: 10.22% | SUE: 3.09 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 87.30 | Revenue CAGR: 6.82% | SUE: 0.04 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.09 | Chg30d=-1.80% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.68 | Chg30d=+1.94% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+9.2% | GrowthRev=+0.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.80 | Chg30d=+0.26% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+3.3% | GrowthRev=+4.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -17% (up=1, down=2)