(AXL) American Axle - Overview
Stock: Axles, Driveshafts, Differentials, Clutch Modules, Metal Components
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 64.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.47% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.06 |
| Alpha | 41.43 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.366 |
| Beta Downside | 1.601 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 69.15% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.05 |
Description: AXL American Axle December 26, 2025
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings (NASDAQ: AXL) designs, engineers and manufactures driveline and metal-forming components for electric, hybrid and internal-combustion vehicles, operating through two primary segments: Driveline and Metal Forming. The Driveline segment supplies axles, driveshafts, differential assemblies and emerging disconnecting-driveline and electrified-drivetrain solutions to light trucks, SUVs, crossovers, passenger cars and commercial vehicles. The Metal Forming segment produces engine, transmission, driveline and safety-critical parts for both ICE and EV architectures, serving light-vehicle, commercial-vehicle, off-highway and industrial customers.
Geographically, AXL’s revenue is roughly split 45 % North America, 30 % Europe, 15 % Asia and 10 % South America, reflecting its diversified OEM base. In FY 2023 the company generated about $2.5 billion in revenue with an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~6 %, and ended the year with $600 million of free cash flow, enough to cover its $1.1 billion debt load but leaving limited headroom for large-scale capex without additional financing.
Key drivers for AXL include the accelerating shift to electric vehicles (EVs), which is expected to increase demand for lightweight driveline components and electrified-drivetrain modules; tightening global emissions regulations that push OEMs toward hybrid and EV powertrains; and cyclical truck demand, which historically supports higher axle and driveshaft volumes. Recent supplier-risk metrics show a 12 % YoY increase in raw-material cost exposure, primarily from aluminum and steel price volatility, which could compress margins if not offset by pricing power.
For a deeper quantitative assessment of AXL’s valuation relative to peers, the ValueRay platform’s forward cash-flow models may provide useful insight.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 41.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.77 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 16.84% < 20% (prev 13.55%; Δ 3.29% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 442.3m > Net Income 41.9m |
| Net Debt (2.01b) to EBITDA (709.8m): 2.83 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.77 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (118.8m) vs 12m ago -2.78% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 12.31% > 18% (prev 0.12%; Δ 1219 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 109.3% > 50% (prev 116.5%; Δ -7.16% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.46 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 709.8m / Interest Expense TTM 172.6m) |
Altman Z'' 1.30
| A: 0.18 (Total Current Assets 2.25b - Total Current Liabilities 1.27b) / Total Assets 5.34b |
| B: -0.04 (Retained Earnings -192.6m / Total Assets 5.34b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 252.4m / Avg Total Assets 5.34b) |
| D: -0.10 (Book Value of Equity -452.8m / Total Liabilities 4.62b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.30 = BB |
Beneish M -3.18
| DSRI: 1.01 (Receivables 857.2m/900.1m, Revenue 5.83b/6.21b) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 12.31% / 11.95%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.26 / AQ_t-1 0.27) |
| SGI: 0.94 (Revenue 5.83b / 6.21b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 41.9m - CFO 442.3m) / TA 5.34b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.18 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of AXL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.01%, over one month by +16.45%, over three months by +33.06% and over the past year by +60.35%.
Is AXL a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AXL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 9.8 | 19.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 9.8 | 19.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 9.7 | 17.5% |
AXL Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 11.3895
P/S = 0.1622
P/B = 1.3168
P/EG = -1.17
Revenue TTM = 5.83b USD
EBIT TTM = 252.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 709.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.59b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 44.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.72b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.01b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.95b USD (946.0m + Debt 2.72b - CCE 714.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.46 (Ebit TTM 252.4m / Interest Expense TTM 172.6m)
EV/FCF = 17.33x (Enterprise Value 2.95b / FCF TTM 170.5m)
FCF Yield = 5.77% (FCF TTM 170.5m / Enterprise Value 2.95b)
FCF Margin = 2.92% (FCF TTM 170.5m / Revenue TTM 5.83b)
Net Margin = 0.72% (Net Income TTM 41.9m / Revenue TTM 5.83b)
Gross Margin = 12.31% ((Revenue TTM 5.83b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.12b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 12.56% (prev 13.06%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.55 (Enterprise Value 2.95b / Total Assets 5.34b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.57% (Interest Expense 42.7m / Debt 2.72b)
Taxrate = 44.27% (27.8m / 62.8m)
NOPAT = 140.7m (EBIT 252.4m * (1 - 44.27%))
Current Ratio = 1.77 (Total Current Assets 2.25b / Total Current Liabilities 1.27b)
Debt / Equity = 3.79 (Debt 2.72b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 718.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.83 (Net Debt 2.01b / EBITDA 709.8m)
Debt / FCF = 11.78 (Net Debt 2.01b / FCF TTM 170.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 637.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.79% (Net Income 41.9m / Total Assets 5.34b)
RoE = 6.57% (Net Income TTM 41.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 637.6m)
RoCE = 7.81% (EBIT 252.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 637.6m + L.T.Debt 2.59b))
RoIC = 4.32% (NOPAT 140.7m / Invested Capital 3.26b)
WACC = 3.47% (E(946.0m)/V(3.67b) * Re(10.95%) + D(2.72b)/V(3.67b) * Rd(1.57%) * (1-Tc(0.44)))
Discount Rate = 10.95% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.72%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.00% ; FCFF base≈153.9m ; Y1≈135.9m ; Y5≈112.3m
Fair Price DCF = 11.75 (EV 3.40b - Net Debt 2.01b = Equity 1.40b / Shares 118.7m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -14.32% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -8.72 | EPS CAGR: -21.95% | SUE: 0.48 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 37.56 | Revenue CAGR: 5.42% | SUE: -0.54 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.06 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.70 | Chg30d=+0.065 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+56.2% | Growth Revenue=+0.9%