AXP Stock Analysis: American Express | NYSE
Credit Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 206.240m USD | 12M Return: -6.2% | US0258161092 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 1.00B
EPS Trend: 96.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) is an integrated payments company headquartered in New York and founded in 1850, operating across the United States, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Asia Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, Latin America, Canada, the Caribbean, and other international markets. The company reports through four segments: U.S. Consumer Services, Commercial Services, International Card Services, and Global Merchant and Network Services. Its core offerings include credit and charge cards, along with complementary products such as travel, dining, lifestyle, and expense management services, as well as banking products like deposits and non-card lending. American Express also provides merchant acquisition and processing, servicing and settlement, fraud prevention, and point-of-sale marketing and information services, distributing through mobile and online applications, affiliate marketing, direct sales teams, direct mail, and other channels to consumers, small businesses, mid-sized companies, and large corporations.
The company is classified within the GICS Financials sector under the Consumer Finance sub-industry and carries a mega-cap market capitalization. Unlike open-loop network operators such as Visa and Mastercard, American Express historically operates a largely closed-loop payments model, meaning it both issues its own cards and directly processes transactions on its proprietary network-a structural distinction that allows it to capture both cardholder spending economics and merchant fee revenue.
- Premium card spending drives discount revenue higher
- Net interest income benefits from elevated rate environment
- Cardmember credit losses rise as delinquencies normalize
| Net Income: 11.4b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.13 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 114.4% < 20% (prev -138.1%; Δ 252.5% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 18.5b > Net Income 11.4b |
| Net Debt (13.5b) to EBITDA (24.7b): 0.55 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.55 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (678.0m) vs 12m ago -3.00% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 84.35% > 18% (prev 82.53%; Δ 1.82% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 27.85% > 50% (prev 26.01%; Δ 1.84% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.81 > 6 (EBIT TTM 22.9b / Interest Expense TTM 8.12b) |
| A: 0.31 (Total Current Assets 271b - Total Current Liabilities 174b) / Total Assets 308b |
| B: 0.09 (Retained Earnings 26.4b / Total Assets 308b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 22.9b / Avg Total Assets 302b) |
| D: 0.13 (Book Value of Equity 34.3b / Total Liabilities 274b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.97 = A |
| DSRI: 3.0 (Receivables 223b/59.4b, Revenue 84.1b/76.9b) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 82.53% / 84.35%) |
| AQI: 0.12 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.78) |
| SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 84.1b / 76.9b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 11.4b - CFO 18.5b) / TA 308b) |
| Beneish M = -1.85 (Cap -4..+1) = B |
As of October 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 304.25 with a total of 3,398,030 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.05%, over one month by -6.70%, over three months by -12.97% and over the past year by -6.24%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 291.20 (which is 4.3% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).
American Express has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.53. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AXP.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 18
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 377.9 | 24.2% |
P/E Trailing = 18.5879
P/E Forward = 15.0602
P/S = 2.9083
P/B = 5.9486
P/EG = 1.2238
Revenue TTM = 84.1b USD
EBIT TTM = 22.9b USD
EBITDA TTM = 24.7b USD
Long Term Debt = 57.0b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.03b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 59.1b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 3.00m
Net Debt = 13.5b USD (calculated: Debt 59.1b - CCE 45.6b)
Enterprise Value = 220b USD (206b + Debt 59.1b - CCE 45.6b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.81 (Ebit TTM 22.9b / Interest Expense TTM 8.12b)
EV/FCF = 14.60x (Enterprise Value 220b / FCF TTM 15.1b)
FCF Yield = 6.85% (FCF TTM 15.1b / Enterprise Value 220b)
FCF Margin = 17.90% (FCF TTM 15.1b / Revenue TTM 84.1b)
Net Margin = 13.61% (Net Income TTM 11.4b / Revenue TTM 84.1b)
Gross Margin = 84.35% ((Revenue TTM 84.1b - Cost of Revenue TTM 13.2b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 85.91% (prev 84.56%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.71 (Enterprise Value 220b / Total Assets 308b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 13.75% (Interest Expense 8.12b / Debt 59.1b)
Taxrate = 22.48% (3.32b / 14.8b)
NOPAT = 17.7b (EBIT 22.9b * (1 - 22.48%))
Current Ratio = 1.55 (Total Current Assets 271b / Total Current Liabilities 174b)
Debt / Equity = 1.72 (Debt 59.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 34.3b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.55 (Net Debt 13.5b / EBITDA 24.7b)
Debt / FCF = 0.90 (Net Debt 13.5b / FCF TTM 15.1b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 33.5b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.79% (Net Income 11.4b / Total Assets 308b)
RoE = 34.12% (Net Income TTM 11.4b / Total Stockholder Equity 33.5b)
RoCE = 25.23% (EBIT 22.9b / Capital Employed (Equity 33.5b + L.T.Debt 57.0b))
RoIC = 13.46% (NOPAT 17.7b / Invested Capital 132b)
WACC = 10.40% (E(206b)/V(265b) * Re(10.33%) + D(59.1b)/V(265b) * Rd(13.75%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 10.33% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -99.29 | Cagr: -2.76%
[DCF] Terminal Value 71.62% ; FCFF base≈13.5b ; Y1≈15.4b ; Y5≈22.7b
[DCF] Fair Price = 351.4 (EV 251b - Net Debt 13.5b = Equity 237b / Shares 675.3m; r=10.40% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 96.54 | EPS CAGR: 15.60% | SUE: 0.42 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.15 | Revenue CAGR: 9.62% | SUE: 0.68 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=4.59 | Chg30d=-0.11% | Revisions=-48% | Analysts=22
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=17.68 | Chg30d=+0.05% | Revisions=-27% | GrowthEPS=+15.0% | GrowthRev=+10.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=20.14 | Chg30d=+0.16% | Revisions=-19% | GrowthEPS=+13.9% | GrowthRev=+9.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -34% (up=22, down=46)