BABA Stock Analysis: Alibaba Holding | NYSE

Internet Retail | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 289.103m USD | 12M Return: 0.4% | US01609W1027 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

E-Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media, Logistics
Total Rating 30
Safety 64
Buy Signal -0.18
Internet Retail
Industry Rotation: -0.4
Market Cap: 289B
Avg Turnover: 1.49B
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility43.4%
VaR 5th Pctl6.52%
VaR vs Median-8.70%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.14
Rel. Str. IBD12
Rel. Str. Peer Group34.2
Character TTM
Beta1.285
Beta Downside1.258
Hurst Exponent0.553
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD49.47%
CAGR/Max DD0.20
CAGR/Mean DD0.53
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of BABA over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 16.6, "2021-09": 11.2, "2021-12": 16.87, "2022-03": 7.95, "2022-06": 11.68, "2022-09": 12.92, "2022-12": 19.26, "2023-03": 10.71, "2023-06": 17.37, "2023-09": 15.63, "2023-12": 18.97, "2024-03": 10.14, "2024-06": 16.44, "2024-09": 15.06, "2024-12": 21.39, "2025-03": 1.57, "2025-06": 14.75, "2025-09": 4.36, "2025-12": 7.09, "2026-03": 0.62, "2026-06": 1.01,
EPS CAGR: -36.97%
EPS Trend: -83.7%
Last SUE: -0.31
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of BABA over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 205740, 2021-09: 200690, 2021-12: 242580, 2022-03: 204052, 2022-06: 205555, 2022-09: 207176, 2022-12: 247756, 2023-03: 208200, 2023-06: 234156, 2023-09: 224790, 2023-12: 260348, 2024-03: 221874, 2024-06: 243236, 2024-09: 236503, 2024-12: 280154, 2025-03: 236454, 2025-06: 247652, 2025-09: 247795, 2025-12: 284843, 2026-03: 243380, 2026-06: 268193.757,
Rev. CAGR: 4.77%
Rev. Trend: 99.2%
Last SUE: 0.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan +11.8% 39
Feb -1.0% 17
Mar +1.2% 8
Apr +0.4% 5
May +0.1% 5
Jun +1.7% 18
Jul +5.0% 41
Aug +4.8% 16
Sep -3.6% 30
Oct -4.0% 29
Nov -7.9% 31
Dec -4.8% 28

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: BABA Alibaba Holding

Alibaba Group Holding Limited is a Chinese multinational technology company founded in 1999 and headquartered in Hangzhou. It operates a diversified portfolio of digital commerce, cloud computing, and lifestyle services organized into four main segments: Alibaba China E-Commerce Group (which includes Taobao, Tmall, 1688.com, and Xianyu), Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (which includes AliExpress, Trendyol, Lazada, Daraz, and Alibaba.com), Cloud Intelligence Group (offering infrastructure, platform, and model-as-a-service cloud solutions), and All Others (encompassing Amap, Cainiao logistics, Youku, Freshippo, and Alibaba Health).

The company is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sector under the Broadline Retail sub-industry, reflecting its core identity as a broadline online retailer, though its business model extends well beyond traditional retail into advertising, logistics, cloud infrastructure, and digital media. Alibaba generates revenue primarily through merchant commissions, advertising services, subscription fees, and cloud computing offerings, serving both domestic Chinese consumers and international markets. Listed on the NYSE under the ticker BABA since its 2014 IPO, the company is one of the largest listed equities globally by market capitalization.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Cloud Intelligence revenue accelerates on enterprise AI demand
  • Taobao Tmall margins pressured by PDD and Douyin competition
  • Share buyback program accelerates capital returns to holders
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.0
Net Income: 73.5b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -6.00 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 18.45% < 20% (prev 21.23%; Δ -2.78% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 78.0b > Net Income 73.5b
Net Debt (-140b) to EBITDA (88.1b): -1.59 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.36 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (2.42b) vs 12m ago 0.89% < -2%
Gross Margin: 38.14% > 18% (prev 41.18%; Δ -3.05% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 54.82% > 50% (prev 54.18%; Δ 0.64% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.45 > 6 (EBIT TTM 72.0b / Interest Expense TTM 9.66b)
Altman Z'' 3.36
A: 0.10 (Total Current Assets 725b - Total Current Liabilities 532b) / Total Assets 1963b
B: 0.36 (Retained Earnings 702b / Total Assets 1963b)
C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 72.0b / Avg Total Assets 1905b)
D: 1.24 (Book Value of Equity 1049b / Total Liabilities 849b)
Altman-Z'' = 3.36 = A
What is the price of BABA shares?

As of August 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 118.90 with a total of 9,660,747 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.37%, over one month by +3.22%, over three months by -4.89% and over the past year by +0.35%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 112.70 (which is 5.2% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).

Is BABA a buy, sell or hold?

Alibaba Holding has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.70. Therefore, it is recommended to buy BABA.

  • StrongBuy: 30
  • Buy: 8
  • Hold: 2
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the BABA price?
Analysts Target Price 187 57.3%
Alibaba Holding (BABA) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 29 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 289b (289b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
Market Cap CNY = 1943b (289b USD * 6.7199 USD.CNY)
P/E Trailing = 27.1752
P/E Forward = 19.5313
P/S = 0.2767
P/B = 1.9087
P/EG = 0.5609
Revenue TTM = 1044b CNY
EBIT TTM = 72.0b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 88.1b CNY
Long Term Debt = 232b CNY (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 30.6b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 288b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 21.7b
Net Debt = -140b CNY (calculated: Debt 288b - CCE 428b)
Enterprise Value = 1803b CNY (1943b + Debt 288b - CCE 428b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.45 (Ebit TTM 72.0b / Interest Expense TTM 9.66b)
EV/FCF = -23.27x (Enterprise Value 1803b / FCF TTM -77.5b)
FCF Yield = -4.30% (FCF TTM -77.5b / Enterprise Value 1803b)
FCF Margin = -7.42% (FCF TTM -77.5b / Revenue TTM 1044b)
Net Margin = 7.04% (Net Income TTM 73.5b / Revenue TTM 1044b)
Gross Margin = 38.14% ((Revenue TTM 1044b - Cost of Revenue TTM 646b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.00% (prev 34.51%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.92 (Enterprise Value 1803b / Total Assets 1963b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.35% (Interest Expense 9.66b / Debt 288b)
Taxrate = 26.54% (27.8b / 105b)
NOPAT = 52.9b (EBIT 72.0b * (1 - 26.54%))
Current Ratio = 1.36 (Total Current Assets 725b / Total Current Liabilities 532b)
Debt / Equity = 0.27 (Debt 288b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1049b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.59 (Net Debt -140b / EBITDA 88.1b)
 Debt / FCF = 1.81 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -140b / FCF TTM -77.5b)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 1045b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.86% (Net Income 73.5b / Total Assets 1963b)
RoE = 7.04% (Net Income TTM 73.5b / Total Stockholder Equity 1045b)
RoCE = 5.64% (EBIT 72.0b / Capital Employed (Equity 1045b + L.T.Debt 232b))
RoIC = 3.76% (NOPAT 52.9b / Invested Capital 1409b)
WACC = 9.46% (E(1943b)/V(2231b) * Re(10.50%) + D(288b)/V(2231b) * Rd(3.35%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 10.50% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -56.22 | Cagr: -0.33%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -77.5b)
 EPS Correlation: -83.70 | EPS CAGR: -36.97% | SUE: -0.31 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.18 | Revenue CAGR: 4.77% | SUE: -0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=10.90 | Chg30d=+10.60% | Revisions=+44% | Analysts=16
EPS next Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=15.18 | Chg30d=+11.51% | Revisions=+44% | Analysts=14
EPS current Year (2027-03-31): EPS=44.68 | Chg30d=-0.29% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+66.7% | GrowthRev=+9.6%
EPS next Year (2028-03-31): EPS=62.56 | Chg30d=+1.48% | Revisions=+35% | GrowthEPS=+40.0% | GrowthRev=+12.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +39% (up=29, down=12)