BABA Stock Analysis: Alibaba Holding | NYSE
Internet Retail | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 228.217m USD | 12M Return: -12.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 1.36B
EPS Trend: -81.0%
Qual. Beats: -3
Rev. Trend: 99.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited is a Chinese multinational technology company founded in 1999 and headquartered in Hangzhou. It operates a diversified portfolio of digital commerce, cloud computing, and lifestyle services organized into four main segments: Alibaba China E-Commerce Group (which includes Taobao, Tmall, 1688.com, and Xianyu), Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group (which includes AliExpress, Trendyol, Lazada, Daraz, and Alibaba.com), Cloud Intelligence Group (offering infrastructure, platform, and model-as-a-service cloud solutions), and All Others (encompassing Amap, Cainiao logistics, Youku, Freshippo, and Alibaba Health).
The company is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sector under the Broadline Retail sub-industry, reflecting its core identity as a broadline online retailer, though its business model extends well beyond traditional retail into advertising, logistics, cloud infrastructure, and digital media. Alibaba generates revenue primarily through merchant commissions, advertising services, subscription fees, and cloud computing offerings, serving both domestic Chinese consumers and international markets. Listed on the NYSE under the ticker BABA since its 2014 IPO, the company is one of the largest listed equities globally by market capitalization.
- Cloud Intelligence revenue accelerates on enterprise AI demand
- Taobao Tmall margins pressured by PDD and Douyin competition
- Share buyback program accelerates capital returns to holders
| Net Income: 104b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -6.93 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 13.08% < 20% (prev 23.46%; Δ -10.38% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 75.4b > Net Income 104b |
| Net Debt (-76.8b) to EBITDA (110b): -0.70 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.28 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (2.40b) vs 12m ago 0.43% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 39.81% > 18% (prev 39.95%; Δ -0.14% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 55.19% > 50% (prev 55.14%; Δ 0.05% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 10.77 > 6 (EBIT TTM 105b / Interest Expense TTM 9.79b) |
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 608b - Total Current Liabilities 475b) / Total Assets 1902b |
| B: 0.37 (Retained Earnings 706b / Total Assets 1902b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 105b / Avg Total Assets 1855b) |
| D: 1.35 (Book Value of Equity 1057b / Total Liabilities 780b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.48 = A |
| DSRI: 0.46 (Receivables 36.0b/76.2b, Revenue 1024b/996b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 39.95% / 39.81%) |
| AQI: 1.08 (AQ_t 0.53 / AQ_t-1 0.49) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 1024b / 996b) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 104b - CFO 75.4b) / TA 1902b) |
| Beneish M = -3.40 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 96.14 with a total of 10,816,201 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.13%, over one month by -25.83%, over three months by -20.51% and over the past year by -12.36%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 91.80 (which is 4.5% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Alibaba Holding has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.70. Therefore, it is recommended to buy BABA.
- StrongBuy: 30
- Buy: 8
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 190.2 | 97.9% |
Market Cap CNY = 1549b (228b USD * 6.7855 USD.CNY)
P/E Trailing = 14.6713
P/E Forward = 14.881
P/S = 0.2229
P/B = 1.4609
P/EG = 0.3867
Revenue TTM = 1024b CNY
EBIT TTM = 105b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 110b CNY
Long Term Debt = 232b CNY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 28.1b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 281b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 21.7b
Net Debt = -76.8b CNY (calculated: Debt 281b - CCE 358b)
Enterprise Value = 1472b CNY (1549b + Debt 281b - CCE 358b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 10.77 (Ebit TTM 105b / Interest Expense TTM 9.79b)
EV/FCF = -29.17x (Enterprise Value 1472b / FCF TTM -50.5b)
FCF Yield = -3.43% (FCF TTM -50.5b / Enterprise Value 1472b)
FCF Margin = -4.93% (FCF TTM -50.5b / Revenue TTM 1024b)
Net Margin = 10.12% (Net Income TTM 104b / Revenue TTM 1024b)
Gross Margin = 39.81% ((Revenue TTM 1024b - Cost of Revenue TTM 616b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 34.51% (prev 40.48%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.77 (Enterprise Value 1472b / Total Assets 1902b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.49% (Interest Expense 9.79b / Debt 281b)
Taxrate = 18.00% (23.9b / 133b)
NOPAT = 86.5b (EBIT 105b * (1 - 18.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.28 (Total Current Assets 608b / Total Current Liabilities 475b)
Debt / Equity = 0.27 (Debt 281b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1057b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.70 (Net Debt -76.8b / EBITDA 110b)
Debt / FCF = 1.52 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -76.8b / FCF TTM -50.5b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1036b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.59% (Net Income 104b / Total Assets 1902b)
RoE = 10.00% (Net Income TTM 104b / Total Stockholder Equity 1036b)
RoCE = 8.32% (EBIT 105b / Capital Employed (Equity 1036b + L.T.Debt 232b))
RoIC = 6.16% (NOPAT 86.5b / Invested Capital 1405b)
WACC = 8.64% (E(1549b)/V(1829b) * Re(9.69%) + D(281b)/V(1829b) * Rd(3.49%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 9.69% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -43.19 | Cagr: -2.41%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -50.5b)
EPS Correlation: -80.98 | EPS CAGR: -24.60% | SUE: -2.80 | # QB: -3
Revenue Correlation: 99.00 | Revenue CAGR: 4.99% | SUE: -0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=9.55 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-20% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2027-03-31): EPS=45.02 | Chg30d=-2.27% | Revisions=-52% | GrowthEPS=+68.0% | GrowthRev=+10.0%
EPS next Year (2028-03-31): EPS=61.60 | Chg30d=-1.56% | Revisions=-23% | GrowthEPS=+36.8% | GrowthRev=+11.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -52%