BABA Stock Analysis: Alibaba Holding | NYSE
Internet Retail | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 275.067m USD | 12M Return: -43.6% | US01609W1027 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 869M
EPS Trend: -83.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE: BABA) is a Chinese multinational technology company founded in 1999 and headquartered in Hangzhou, China. It provides technology infrastructure and marketing services to merchants, brands, and retailers operating in China and internationally. The company is organized into four business segments. The Alibaba China E-Commerce Group operates Taobao, a consumer-to-consumer marketplace, and Tmall, a business-to-consumer platform for brands and retailers, along with Taobao Instant Commerce, the domestic wholesale platform 1688.com, and the idle goods marketplace Xianyu. The Alibaba International Digital Commerce Group runs global and regional retail platforms including AliExpress, Trendyol (Turkey), Lazada (Southeast Asia), Daraz (South Asia), as well as the international wholesale marketplace Alibaba.com. The Cloud Intelligence Group delivers infrastructure-as-a-service, platform-as-a-service, and model-as-a-service offerings, positioning Alibaba as one of the major public cloud providers in China. The All Others segment includes Amap (digital maps and navigation), Cainiao (logistics), Youku (online video), Freshippo (grocery retail), and Alibaba Health (pharmaceutical and healthcare services).
- Cloud Intelligence segment revenue accelerates on AI demand
- China e-commerce core takes share amid rising competition from PDD and Douyin
- International Digital Commerce growth driven by AliExpress and Trendyol expansion
- Regulatory environment in China stabilizes supporting valuation recovery
| Net Income: 73.5b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -6.00 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 18.45% < 20% (prev 21.23%; Δ -2.78% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 78.0b > Net Income 73.5b |
| Net Debt (-140b) to EBITDA (88.1b): -1.59 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.36 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (2.42b) vs 12m ago 0.89% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 38.14% > 18% (prev 41.18%; Δ -3.05% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 54.82% > 50% (prev 54.18%; Δ 0.64% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.45 > 6 (EBIT TTM 72.0b / Interest Expense TTM 9.66b) |
| A: 0.10 (Total Current Assets 725b - Total Current Liabilities 532b) / Total Assets 1963b |
| B: 0.36 (Retained Earnings 702b / Total Assets 1963b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 72.0b / Avg Total Assets 1905b) |
| D: 1.24 (Book Value of Equity 1049b / Total Liabilities 849b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.36 = A |
As of October 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 105.85 with a total of 7,768,242 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.54%, over one month by -5.33%, over three months by +10.10% and over the past year by -43.58%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 102.50 (which is 3.2% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Alibaba Holding has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.70. Therefore, it is recommended to buy BABA.
- StrongBuy: 30
- Buy: 8
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 185.4 | 75.2% |
Market Cap CNY = 1844b (275b USD * 6.70455 USD.CNY)
P/E Trailing = 24.9729
P/E Forward = 17.9211
P/S = 0.2632
P/B = 1.7583
P/EG = 0.5141
Revenue TTM = 1044b CNY
EBIT TTM = 72.0b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 88.1b CNY
Long Term Debt = 236b CNY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 30.6b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 288b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 21.7b
Net Debt = -140b CNY (calculated: Debt 288b - CCE 428b)
Enterprise Value = 1704b CNY (1844b + Debt 288b - CCE 428b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.45 (Ebit TTM 72.0b / Interest Expense TTM 9.66b)
EV/FCF = -22.00x (Enterprise Value 1704b / FCF TTM -77.5b)
FCF Yield = -4.55% (FCF TTM -77.5b / Enterprise Value 1704b)
FCF Margin = -7.42% (FCF TTM -77.5b / Revenue TTM 1044b)
Net Margin = 7.04% (Net Income TTM 73.5b / Revenue TTM 1044b)
Gross Margin = 38.14% ((Revenue TTM 1044b - Cost of Revenue TTM 646b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.00% (prev 34.51%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.87 (Enterprise Value 1704b / Total Assets 1963b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.35% (Interest Expense 9.66b / Debt 288b)
Taxrate = 26.54% (27.8b / 105b)
NOPAT = 52.9b (EBIT 72.0b * (1 - 26.54%))
Current Ratio = 1.36 (Total Current Assets 725b / Total Current Liabilities 532b)
Debt / Equity = 0.27 (Debt 288b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1049b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.59 (Net Debt -140b / EBITDA 88.1b)
Debt / FCF = 1.81 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -140b / FCF TTM -77.5b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1045b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.86% (Net Income 73.5b / Total Assets 1963b)
RoE = 7.04% (Net Income TTM 73.5b / Total Stockholder Equity 1045b)
RoCE = 5.62% (EBIT 72.0b / Capital Employed (Equity 1045b + L.T.Debt 236b))
RoIC = 3.76% (NOPAT 52.9b / Invested Capital 1409b)
WACC = 9.53% (E(1844b)/V(2133b) * Re(10.63%) + D(288b)/V(2133b) * Rd(3.35%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 10.63% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -56.22 | Cagr: -0.33%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -77.5b)
EPS Correlation: -83.70 | EPS CAGR: -36.97% | SUE: -0.31 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.18 | Revenue CAGR: 4.77% | SUE: -0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=10.86 | Chg30d=-0.20% | Revisions=+47% | Analysts=17
EPS next Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=14.66 | Chg30d=-3.99% | Revisions=+53% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2027-03-31): EPS=44.05 | Chg30d=-1.79% | Revisions=-19% | GrowthEPS=+64.4% | GrowthRev=+9.6%
EPS next Year (2028-03-31): EPS=61.76 | Chg30d=-1.62% | Revisions=+21% | GrowthEPS=+40.2% | GrowthRev=+12.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +19% (up=48, down=32)