BBAI Stock Analysis: BigBearai Holdings | NYSE
Information Technology Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.679m USD | 12M Return: -55% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 113M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -69.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 5.2 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: BBAI) is a small-cap U.S. information technology company that provides artificial intelligence-powered decision intelligence solutions across three core markets: national security, supply chain management, and digital identity. The company is headquartered in McLean, Virginia, and traces its origins to 1988, with its current publicly traded form established through a 2021 IPO.
Its product portfolio spans supply chain and logistics offerings such as Data Conflation at Scale, Discrete Event Simulation, and Next-Gen Decision Support; cybersecurity solutions including AI-driven binary analysis, cyber-physical systems vulnerability testing, and vulnerability assessment as a service; and autonomous systems and AI orchestration capabilities. The company also delivers digital identity services covering biometrics, advanced analytics, and software for global trade and travel applications, alongside the Ask Sage Platform, a generative AI solution designed for secure AI deployment in defense, intelligence, and other regulated environments.
BigBear.ai serves a customer base that includes the U.S. Department of Defense and the broader intelligence community, making government and defense contracting a central pillar of its revenue model. Its placement within the Internet Services & Infrastructure sub-industry reflects the infrastructure-style nature of its decision intelligence and orchestration platforms, while its McLean, Virginia headquarters situates it within a regional cluster of government technology and defense contractors near Washington, D.C.
- DoD contract awards drive quarterly revenue beats
- Ask Sage platform bookings accelerate across defense agencies
- Capital raises dilute shareholders amid ongoing cash burn
| Net Income: -288.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.11 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 258.5% < 20% (prev 36.98%; Δ 221.6% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.06 > 3% & CFO -53.3m > Net Income -288.7m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 6.08 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (4.73b) vs 12m ago 1.79k% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 25.76% > 18% (prev 28.54%; Δ -2.77% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 20.25% > 50% (prev 40.34%; Δ -20.10% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -20.68 > 6 (EBIT TTM -275.4m / Interest Expense TTM 13.3m) |
| A: 0.38 (Total Current Assets 394.0m - Total Current Liabilities 64.8m) / Total Assets 861.7m |
| B: -1.07 (Retained Earnings -922.3m / Total Assets 861.7m) |
| C: -0.44 (EBIT TTM -275.4m / Avg Total Assets 629.0m) |
| D: 11.09 (Book Value of Equity 790.4m / Total Liabilities 71.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 7.72 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.82 (Receivables 22.8m/35.1m, Revenue 127.3m/159.9m) |
| GMI: 1.11 (GM 28.54% / 25.76%) |
| AQI: 0.89 (AQ_t 0.53 / AQ_t-1 0.60) |
| SGI: 0.80 (Revenue 127.3m / 159.9m) |
| TATA: -0.27 (NI -288.7m - CFO -53.3m) / TA 861.7m) |
| Beneish M = -3.32 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 3.32 with a total of 19,545,692 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -8.79%, over one month by -16.79%, over three months by +0.91% and over the past year by -54.95%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 3.00 (which is 9.6% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
BigBearai Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold BBAI.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 5.3 | 60.5% |
P/S = 13.1819
P/B = 2.139
Revenue TTM = 127.3m USD
EBIT TTM = -275.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = -256.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 90.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 17.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 115.6m USD (corrected: LT Debt 90.5m + ST Debt 17.6m) + Leases 7.51m
Net Debt = 14.9m USD (calculated: Debt 115.6m - CCE 100.7m)
Enterprise Value = 1.69b USD (1.68b + Debt 115.6m - CCE 100.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -20.68 (Ebit TTM -275.4m / Interest Expense TTM 13.3m)
EV/FCF = -30.05x (Enterprise Value 1.69b / FCF TTM -56.4m)
FCF Yield = -3.33% (FCF TTM -56.4m / Enterprise Value 1.69b)
FCF Margin = -44.25% (FCF TTM -56.4m / Revenue TTM 127.3m)
Net Margin = -226.7% (Net Income TTM -288.7m / Revenue TTM 127.3m)
Gross Margin = 25.76% ((Revenue TTM 127.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 94.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 34.04% (prev 20.32%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.97 (Enterprise Value 1.69b / Total Assets 861.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 11.52% (Interest Expense 13.3m / Debt 115.6m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -217.6m (EBIT -275.4m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 6.08 (Total Current Assets 394.0m / Total Current Liabilities 64.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.15 (Debt 115.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 790.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.06 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 14.9m / EBITDA -256.5m)
Debt / FCF = -0.26 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 14.9m / FCF TTM -56.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 569.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -45.90% (Net Income -288.7m / Total Assets 861.7m)
RoE = -50.67% (Net Income TTM -288.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 569.7m)
RoCE = -41.71% (EBIT -275.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 569.7m + L.T.Debt 90.5m))
RoIC = -26.92% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -217.6m / Invested Capital 808.1m)
WACC = 19.10% (E(1.68b)/V(1.79b) * Re(19.79%) + D(115.6m)/V(1.79b) * Rd(11.52%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 19.79% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 98.88 | Cagr: 354.5%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -56.4m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.16 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -69.27 | Revenue CAGR: -5.97% | SUE: 0.20 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.05 | Chg30d=+39.11% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=-0.05 | Chg30d=+33.29% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.25 | Chg30d=+16.67% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+69.5% | GrowthRev=+12.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=-0.19 | Chg30d=+49.33% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+24.0% | GrowthRev=+11.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -57% (up=0, down=4)