(BFS) Saul Centers - Overview
Stock: Shopping Centers, Mixed-Use Properties, Development Land
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 7.37% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 9.79% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 2.24% |
| Payout Consistency | 94.7% |
| Payout Ratio | 2.0% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 23.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -1.05% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.07 |
| Alpha | -8.27 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.397 |
| Beta Downside | 0.518 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 24.07% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.00 |
Description: BFS Saul Centers January 19, 2026
Saul Centers, Inc. (NYSE:BFS) is a self-managed equity REIT based in Bethesda, Maryland, that owns and operates 62 properties-including 50 community-scale shopping centers, eight mixed-use assets, and four undeveloped parcels-totaling roughly 10.2 million sq ft of leasable space. More than 85 % of its net operating income (NOI) comes from assets concentrated in the Washington, D.C./Baltimore metro region, giving the REIT a highly localized revenue base.
Key performance indicators (as of FY 2024) show an occupancy rate near 95 % and a funds-from-operations (FFO) yield of about 6.2 %, supported by a modest leverage ratio of 3.5× debt-to-EBITDA. The REIT’s cash flow is sensitive to regional economic health-particularly employment trends and consumer spending in the D.C. corridor-and to macro-level factors such as Fed policy, which influences borrowing costs for both tenants and the REIT itself. Additionally, the shift toward mixed-use development aligns with broader retail-real-estate trends that favor experiential tenants and residential components to mitigate e-commerce pressure.
For a deeper, data-driven look at how these dynamics translate into valuation metrics, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboards useful as a next step in your research.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: 39.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.01 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -345.0% < 20% (prev -75.69%; Δ -269.3% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 106.4m > Net Income 39.1m |
| Net Debt (1.01b) to EBITDA (171.2m): 5.90 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.07 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (24.2m) vs 12m ago 0.26% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 75.86% > 18% (prev 0.69%; Δ 7517 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 13.20% > 50% (prev 12.68%; Δ 0.52% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.71 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 171.2m / Interest Expense TTM 66.8m) |
Altman Z'' -3.29
| A: -0.45 (Total Current Assets 70.8m - Total Current Liabilities 1.05b) / Total Assets 2.17b |
| B: -0.15 (Retained Earnings -327.0m / Total Assets 2.17b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 114.1m / Avg Total Assets 2.14b) |
| D: -0.19 (Book Value of Equity -325.7m / Total Liabilities 1.68b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -3.29 = D |
Beneish M -3.73
| DSRI: 0.93 (Receivables 59.0m/59.8m, Revenue 282.6m/268.0m) |
| GMI: 0.91 (GM 75.86% / 69.25%) |
| AQI: 0.02 (AQ_t 0.02 / AQ_t-1 0.97) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 282.6m / 268.0m) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 39.1m - CFO 106.4m) / TA 2.17b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.73 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of BFS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +9.14%, over one month by +11.68%, over three months by +18.04% and over the past year by +0.45%.
Is BFS a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the BFS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 45.5 | 31.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 45.5 | 31.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 39.9 | 15.2% |
BFS Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 3.8649
P/B = 5.8663
Revenue TTM = 282.6m USD
EBIT TTM = 114.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 171.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.40b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.02b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.02b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.01b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.04b USD (1.03b + Debt 1.02b - CCE 11.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.71 (Ebit TTM 114.1m / Interest Expense TTM 66.8m)
EV/FCF = 19.17x (Enterprise Value 2.04b / FCF TTM 106.4m)
FCF Yield = 5.22% (FCF TTM 106.4m / Enterprise Value 2.04b)
FCF Margin = 37.64% (FCF TTM 106.4m / Revenue TTM 282.6m)
Net Margin = 13.83% (Net Income TTM 39.1m / Revenue TTM 282.6m)
Gross Margin = 75.86% ((Revenue TTM 282.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 68.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 88.68% (prev 72.56%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.94 (Enterprise Value 2.04b / Total Assets 2.17b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.67% (Interest Expense 17.1m / Debt 1.02b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 90.1m (EBIT 114.1m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.07 (Total Current Assets 70.8m / Total Current Liabilities 1.05b)
Debt / Equity = 3.23 (Debt 1.02b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 316.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.90 (Net Debt 1.01b / EBITDA 171.2m)
Debt / FCF = 9.50 (Net Debt 1.01b / FCF TTM 106.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 325.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.83% (Net Income 39.1m / Total Assets 2.17b)
RoE = 12.00% (Net Income TTM 39.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 325.8m)
RoCE = 6.60% (EBIT 114.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 325.8m + L.T.Debt 1.40b))
RoIC = 5.31% (NOPAT 90.1m / Invested Capital 1.70b)
WACC = 4.36% (E(1.03b)/V(2.05b) * Re(7.38%) + D(1.02b)/V(2.05b) * Rd(1.67%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.38% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.28%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 86.37% ; FCFF base≈113.9m ; Y1≈114.2m ; Y5≈121.7m
Fair Price DCF = 107.3 (EV 3.63b - Net Debt 1.01b = Equity 2.62b / Shares 24.4m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -0.19% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -61.33 | EPS CAGR: -47.68% | SUE: -3.06 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.83 | Revenue CAGR: 4.87% | SUE: 0.02 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.20 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.81 | Chg30d=-0.300 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-22.9% | Growth Revenue=+4.9%