BGS Stock Analysis: B&G Foods | NYSE
Packaged Foods | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 319m USD | 12M Return: 8.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 7.21M
EPS Trend: -77.0%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: -99.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
B&G Foods, Inc. (NYSE: BGS) is a U.S.-based packaged foods company that manufactures, sells, and distributes a diverse portfolio of shelf-stable and frozen foods, along with a small set of household products, across the United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico. The company reports through four operating segments: Specialty, Meals, Frozen & Vegetables, and Spices & Flavor Solutions.
Its product range spans dozens of categories-including canned and frozen vegetables, cooking oils, hot cereals, canned meats and beans, spices, seasonings, hot sauces, syrups and molasses, salad dressings, pizza crusts, taco kits, salsas, pickles, crackers, and baking ingredients-marketed under a large portfolio of owned and licensed brands such as Crisco, Green Giant, Ortega, Cream of Wheat, Spice Islands, Weber, Dash, Polaner, Bear Creek, Maple Grove Farms of Vermont, and Las Palmas. Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods & Meats), B&G follows a roll-up brand-acquisition model typical of the sub-industry, layering new labels onto a shared manufacturing, sales, and distribution platform.
Products reach customers through a mixed channel structure: direct sales supplemented by independent brokers and distributors serving supermarket chains, foodservice operators, mass merchants, warehouse clubs, non-food outlets, and specialty distributors. The shelf-stable focus is central to the business model, as long shelf life supports centralized production, broad geographic shipping, and lower cold-chain costs relative to fully fresh-food peers. Founded in 1889 and headquartered in Parsippany, New Jersey, the company was previously named B&G Foods Holdings Corp. before adopting its current name in October 2004.
- Leveraged balance sheet refinancing pressures interest expense and free cash flow
- Private label competition erodes pricing power and volumes across shelf-stable brands
- Commodity input costs for grains, oils, and packaging squeeze gross margins
| Net Income: -76.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.35 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 24.74% < 20% (prev 28.13%; Δ -3.39% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 72.2m > Net Income -76.6m |
| Net Debt (2.05b) to EBITDA (130.5m): 15.68 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.99 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (80.2m) vs 12m ago 0.67% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 20.53% > 18% (prev 21.24%; Δ -0.71% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 62.60% > 50% (prev 63.74%; Δ -1.14% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.38 > 6 (EBIT TTM 56.1m / Interest Expense TTM 148.4m) |
| A: 0.16 (Total Current Assets 673.6m - Total Current Liabilities 225.2m) / Total Assets 2.84b |
| B: 0.14 (Retained Earnings 389.2m / Total Assets 2.84b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 56.1m / Avg Total Assets 2.90b) |
| D: 0.17 (Book Value of Equity 403.4m / Total Liabilities 2.43b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.79 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.22 (Receivables 174.4m/148.0m, Revenue 1.81b/1.88b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 21.24% / 20.53%) |
| AQI: 1.04 (AQ_t 0.66 / AQ_t-1 0.63) |
| SGI: 0.96 (Revenue 1.81b / 1.88b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI -76.6m - CFO 72.2m) / TA 2.84b) |
| Beneish M = -2.82 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 3.93 with a total of 1,137,504 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.68%, over one month by -0.17%, over three months by -25.77% and over the past year by +8.17%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 3.70 (which is 5.9% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
B&G Foods has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.43. Therefore, it is recommended to sell BGS.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 2
| Analysts Target Price | 5.2 | 32.3% |
P/E Forward = 6.5488
P/S = 0.176
P/B = 0.7907
P/EG = 4.5532
Revenue TTM = 1.81b USD
EBIT TTM = 56.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 130.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.00b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 20.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.11b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 53.0m
Net Debt = 2.05b USD (calculated: Debt 2.11b - CCE 64.5m)
Enterprise Value = 2.37b USD (319.0m + Debt 2.11b - CCE 64.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.38 (Ebit TTM 56.1m / Interest Expense TTM 148.4m)
EV/FCF = 50.22x (Enterprise Value 2.37b / FCF TTM 47.1m)
FCF Yield = 1.99% (FCF TTM 47.1m / Enterprise Value 2.37b)
FCF Margin = 2.60% (FCF TTM 47.1m / Revenue TTM 1.81b)
Net Margin = -4.23% (Net Income TTM -76.6m / Revenue TTM 1.81b)
Gross Margin = 20.53% ((Revenue TTM 1.81b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.44b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 18.47% (prev 22.03%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.83 (Enterprise Value 2.37b / Total Assets 2.84b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.03% (Interest Expense 148.4m / Debt 2.11b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 44.3m (EBIT 56.1m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 2.99 (Total Current Assets 673.6m / Total Current Liabilities 225.2m)
Debt / Equity = 5.23 (Debt 2.11b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 403.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 15.68 (Net Debt 2.05b / EBITDA 130.5m)
Debt / FCF = 43.45 (Net Debt 2.05b / FCF TTM 47.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 457.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.65% (Net Income -76.6m / Total Assets 2.84b)
RoE = -16.76% (Net Income TTM -76.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 457.2m)
RoCE = 2.28% (EBIT 56.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 457.2m + L.T.Debt 2.00b))
RoIC = 1.73% (NOPAT 44.3m / Invested Capital 2.57b)
WACC = 5.66% (E(319.0m)/V(2.43b) * Re(6.35%) + D(2.11b)/V(2.43b) * Rd(7.03%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 82.22 | Cagr: 0.89%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈75.7m ; Y1≈66.4m ; Y5≈53.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 860.6m - Net Debt 2.05b = -1.19b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -77.04 | EPS CAGR: -47.84% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: -99.33 | Revenue CAGR: -6.08% | SUE: 0.67 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.06 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-57% | Analysts=5
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.18 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.60 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=+18.4% | GrowthRev=-5.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.65 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=+8.1% | GrowthRev=+1.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -53% (up=3, down=13)