BGS Stock Analysis: B&G Foods | NYSE
Packaged Foods | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 289m USD | 12M Return: -11.2% | US05508R1068 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 7.66M
EPS Trend: -82.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -99.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
B&G Foods, Inc. (NYSE: BGS) is a U.S.-based packaged foods company that manufactures, sells, and distributes a diverse portfolio of shelf-stable and frozen foods, along with a small set of household products, across the United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico. The company reports through four operating segments: Specialty, Meals, Frozen & Vegetables, and Spices & Flavor Solutions.
Its product range spans dozens of categories-including canned and frozen vegetables, cooking oils, hot cereals, canned meats and beans, spices, seasonings, hot sauces, syrups and molasses, salad dressings, pizza crusts, taco kits, salsas, pickles, crackers, and baking ingredients-marketed under a large portfolio of owned and licensed brands such as Crisco, Green Giant, Ortega, Cream of Wheat, Spice Islands, Weber, Dash, Polaner, Bear Creek, Maple Grove Farms of Vermont, and Las Palmas. Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods & Meats), B&G follows a roll-up brand-acquisition model typical of the sub-industry, layering new labels onto a shared manufacturing, sales, and distribution platform.
Products reach customers through a mixed channel structure: direct sales supplemented by independent brokers and distributors serving supermarket chains, foodservice operators, mass merchants, warehouse clubs, non-food outlets, and specialty distributors. The shelf-stable focus is central to the business model, as long shelf life supports centralized production, broad geographic shipping, and lower cold-chain costs relative to fully fresh-food peers. Founded in 1889 and headquartered in Parsippany, New Jersey, the company was previously named B&G Foods Holdings Corp. before adopting its current name in October 2004.
- Leveraged balance sheet refinancing pressures interest expense and free cash flow
- Private label competition erodes pricing power and volumes across shelf-stable brands
- Commodity input costs for grains, oils, and packaging squeeze gross margins
| Net Income: -70.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.35 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 25.98% < 20% (prev 26.99%; Δ -1.02% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 88.8m > Net Income -70.8m |
| Net Debt (2.04b) to EBITDA (136.3m): 14.95 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.62 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (81.2m) vs 12m ago 1.64% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 20.76% > 18% (prev 21.03%; Δ -0.27% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 56.26% > 50% (prev 63.42%; Δ -7.16% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.46 > 6 (EBIT TTM 69.0m / Interest Expense TTM 151.1m) |
| A: 0.14 (Total Current Assets 1.21b - Total Current Liabilities 747.0m) / Total Assets 3.36b |
| B: 0.11 (Retained Earnings 381.2m / Total Assets 3.36b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 69.0m / Avg Total Assets 3.15b) |
| D: 0.13 (Book Value of Equity 395.1m / Total Liabilities 2.96b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.56 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.17 (Receivables 157.0m/141.5m, Revenue 1.77b/1.86b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 21.03% / 20.76%) |
| AQI: 0.88 (AQ_t 0.56 / AQ_t-1 0.64) |
| SGI: 0.95 (Revenue 1.77b / 1.86b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI -70.8m - CFO 88.8m) / TA 3.36b) |
| Beneish M = -2.99 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of August 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 3.47 with a total of 1,484,047 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.20%, over one month by -3.07%, over three months by -14.41% and over the past year by -11.24%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 3.20 (which is 7.8% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
B&G Foods has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.43. Therefore, it is recommended to sell BGS.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 2
| Analysts Target Price | 4.2 | 21% |
P/E Forward = 6.2735
P/S = 0.1629
P/B = 0.7098
P/EG = 4.5532
Revenue TTM = 1.77b USD
EBIT TTM = 69.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 136.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.95b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 529.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.63b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 53.0m
Net Debt = 2.04b USD (calculated: Debt 2.63b - CCE 591.6m)
Enterprise Value = 2.33b USD (288.5m + Debt 2.63b - CCE 591.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.46 (Ebit TTM 69.0m / Interest Expense TTM 151.1m)
EV/FCF = 36.39x (Enterprise Value 2.33b / FCF TTM 63.9m)
FCF Yield = 2.75% (FCF TTM 63.9m / Enterprise Value 2.33b)
FCF Margin = 3.61% (FCF TTM 63.9m / Revenue TTM 1.77b)
Net Margin = -4.00% (Net Income TTM -70.8m / Revenue TTM 1.77b)
Gross Margin = 20.76% ((Revenue TTM 1.77b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.40b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 20.78% (prev 18.47%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.69 (Enterprise Value 2.33b / Total Assets 3.36b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.75% (Interest Expense 151.1m / Debt 2.63b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 54.5m (EBIT 69.0m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.62 (Total Current Assets 1.21b / Total Current Liabilities 747.0m)
Debt / Equity = 6.65 (Debt 2.63b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 395.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 14.95 (Net Debt 2.04b / EBITDA 136.3m)
Debt / FCF = 31.87 (Net Debt 2.04b / FCF TTM 63.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 430.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.25% (Net Income -70.8m / Total Assets 3.36b)
RoE = -16.45% (Net Income TTM -70.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 430.6m)
RoCE = 2.90% (EBIT 69.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 430.6m + L.T.Debt 1.95b))
RoIC = 1.79% (NOPAT 54.5m / Invested Capital 3.05b)
WACC = 4.65% (E(288.5m)/V(2.92b) * Re(5.60%) + D(2.63b)/V(2.92b) * Rd(5.75%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 5.60% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 89.20 | Cagr: 1.41%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈88.3m ; Y1≈77.4m ; Y5≈62.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.00b - Net Debt 2.04b = -1.03b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -82.29 | EPS CAGR: -56.78% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -99.30 | Revenue CAGR: -5.95% | SUE: -0.81 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.06 | Chg30d=-3.44% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.55 | Chg30d=-8.97% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+7.8% | GrowthRev=-5.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.52 | Chg30d=-20.93% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-6.2% | GrowthRev=-0.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -44% (up=1, down=5)