(BHP) BHP - Overview
Stock: Copper, Iron Ore, Coal, Nickel, Potash
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 4.17% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 5.08% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -20.10% |
| Payout Consistency | 84.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 82.5% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 30.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -0.86% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.26 |
| Alpha | 32.00 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.877 |
| Beta Downside | 0.843 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 37.21% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.16 |
Description: BHP BHP January 28, 2026
BHP Group Limited (NYSE:BHP) is a globally diversified resources company headquartered in Melbourne, Australia, with operations spanning copper, iron ore, and coal segments, and additional exposure to uranium, gold, zinc, lead, molybdenum, silver, cobalt, nickel, and potash. The firm also provides ancillary services such as freight, marketing, finance, and administrative support, positioning itself as an integrated miner and commodity trader across 12 major markets.
As of the latest Q3 2024 earnings release, BHP reported a consolidated EBITDA of US$15.2 billion, driven primarily by a 22% rise in copper sales volume and a 15% uplift in iron-ore pricing, while coal contributed a modest 3% to total revenue amid declining demand in Europe. The companys 2024 capital expenditure plan targets US$13 billion, with US$5 billion earmarked for copper expansion projects in Chile and the United States, reflecting the sector’s long-term demand growth of 5–6% per year according to the International Copper Study Group. Additionally, BHP’s net debt-to-EBITDA ratio improved to 1.2×, down from 1.5× a year earlier, indicating a stronger balance sheet amid tightening global financing conditions.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, see the ValueRay platform.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.5
| Net Income: 19.47b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.19 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.59 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 7.65% < 20% (prev 12.54%; Δ -4.89% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.33 > 3% & CFO 36.37b > Net Income 19.47b |
| Net Debt (12.60b) to EBITDA (44.40b): 0.28 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.46 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (2.54b) vs 12m ago 0.10% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 79.94% > 18% (prev 0.58%; Δ 7936 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 90.02% > 50% (prev 68.80%; Δ 21.22% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 25.78 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 44.40b / Interest Expense TTM 1.42b) |
Altman Z'' 5.00
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 22.83b - Total Current Liabilities 15.64b) / Total Assets 108.79b |
| B: 0.41 (Retained Earnings 44.11b / Total Assets 108.79b) |
| C: 0.35 (EBIT TTM 36.65b / Avg Total Assets 104.39b) |
| D: 0.84 (Book Value of Equity 47.68b / Total Liabilities 56.57b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 5.00 = AAA |
Beneish M -3.21
| DSRI: 0.64 (Receivables 4.66b/5.35b, Revenue 93.97b/68.79b) |
| GMI: 0.72 (GM 79.94% / 57.79%) |
| AQI: 1.44 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.06) |
| SGI: 1.37 (Revenue 93.97b / 68.79b) |
| TATA: -0.16 (NI 19.47b - CFO 36.37b) / TA 108.79b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.21 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of BHP shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.79%, over one month by +12.82%, over three months by +20.07% and over the past year by +44.00%.
Is BHP a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the BHP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 58.3 | -15.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 58.3 | -15.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 77.5 | 12.8% |
BHP Fundamental Data Overview January 31, 2026
P/E Forward = 13.4228
P/S = 3.6166
P/B = 3.964
Revenue TTM = 93.97b USD
EBIT TTM = 36.65b USD
EBITDA TTM = 44.40b USD
Long Term Debt = 20.17b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.02b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 24.50b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 12.60b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 198.00b USD (185.39b + Debt 24.50b - CCE 11.89b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 25.78 (Ebit TTM 36.65b / Interest Expense TTM 1.42b)
EV/FCF = 9.81x (Enterprise Value 198.00b / FCF TTM 20.17b)
FCF Yield = 10.19% (FCF TTM 20.17b / Enterprise Value 198.00b)
FCF Margin = 21.47% (FCF TTM 20.17b / Revenue TTM 93.97b)
Net Margin = 20.72% (Net Income TTM 19.47b / Revenue TTM 93.97b)
Gross Margin = 79.94% ((Revenue TTM 93.97b - Cost of Revenue TTM 18.85b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 100.0% (prev 36.71%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.82 (Enterprise Value 198.00b / Total Assets 108.79b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.84% (Interest Expense 451.1m / Debt 24.50b)
Taxrate = 39.51% (3.83b / 9.68b)
NOPAT = 22.17b (EBIT 36.65b * (1 - 39.51%))
Current Ratio = 1.46 (Total Current Assets 22.83b / Total Current Liabilities 15.64b)
Debt / Equity = 0.51 (Debt 24.50b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 47.66b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.28 (Net Debt 12.60b / EBITDA 44.40b)
Debt / FCF = 0.62 (Net Debt 12.60b / FCF TTM 20.17b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 45.70b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 18.66% (Net Income 19.47b / Total Assets 108.79b)
RoE = 42.61% (Net Income TTM 19.47b / Total Stockholder Equity 45.70b)
RoCE = 55.65% (EBIT 36.65b / Capital Employed (Equity 45.70b + L.T.Debt 20.17b))
RoIC = 34.31% (NOPAT 22.17b / Invested Capital 64.63b)
WACC = 8.21% (E(185.39b)/V(209.89b) * Re(9.15%) + D(24.50b)/V(209.89b) * Rd(1.84%) * (1-Tc(0.40)))
Discount Rate = 9.15% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 0.05%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.63% ; FCFF base≈18.49b ; Y1≈15.72b ; Y5≈12.04b
Fair Price DCF = 78.00 (EV 210.66b - Net Debt 12.60b = Equity 198.05b / Shares 2.54b; r=8.21% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -18.13% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -18.22 | EPS CAGR: -41.41% | SUE: -1.13 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 8.20 | Revenue CAGR: 13.91% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=3.99 | Chg30d=-0.392 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=-0.4% | Growth Revenue=+7.8%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=4.10 | Chg30d=-0.125 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+2.8% | Growth Revenue=-3.2%