(BHP) BHP - Ratings and Ratios
Copper, Iron, Coal, Nickel, Potash
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 25.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 41.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -1.64% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.20 |
| Alpha | -5.21 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.363 |
| Beta | 0.827 |
| Beta Downside | 0.865 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 37.21% |
| Mean DD | 14.91% |
| Median DD | 14.95% |
Description: BHP BHP September 25, 2025
BHP Group Limited (NYSE:BHP) is a globally diversified resources company headquartered in Melbourne, Australia, with operations spanning Australia, Europe, Asia, and the Americas. Its primary business segments are Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal, and it extracts a broad portfolio of commodities including copper, uranium, gold, zinc, lead, molybdenum, silver, iron ore, cobalt, metallurgical and energy coal, nickel, and potash.
Beyond extraction, BHP engages in downstream activities such as smelting and refining (notably nickel), as well as ancillary services including towing, freight, marketing, trading, finance, and administration, supporting its integrated value chain.
Key recent performance indicators (FY 2023) show adjusted EBITDA of roughly US$45 billion, free cash flow of US$15 billion, and a dividend yield near 5.5%, reflecting strong cash generation despite volatile commodity prices. Capital expenditures were directed toward expanding copper and nickel projects, with total capex of about US$13 billion.
Strategic economic drivers for BHP include the accelerating demand for copper driven by electric-vehicle and renewable-energy infrastructure (global copper consumption is projected to grow ~5 % CAGR through 2030), constrained iron-ore supply from Brazil’s logistical bottlenecks that support higher pricing, and the gradual decline of thermal-coal demand in Europe and North America, which pressures BHP’s coal segment and incentivizes diversification into metallurgical coal and low-carbon assets.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, the ValueRay platform offers a granular breakdown of BHP’s valuation metrics and scenario analyses.
BHP Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 137,974m |
| Sub-Industry | Diversified Metals & Mining |
| IPO / Inception | 1987-05-28 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -6.88% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.0 of 5 |
BHP Dividends
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 4.09% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 6.30% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 8.12% |
| Payout Consistency | 84.6% |
| Payout Ratio | 58.4% |
BHP Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | 1.19% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 0.03 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 0.08 |
| Current Volume | 1907.6k |
| Average Volume | 2796.3k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.5
| Net Income (19.47b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 5.64b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.19 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 2.59pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 7.65% (prev 12.54%; Δ -4.89pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.33 (>3.0%) and CFO 36.37b > Net Income 19.47b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (12.60b) to EBITDA (44.40b) ratio: 0.28 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.46 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (2.54b) change vs 12m ago 0.10% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 79.94% (prev 57.79%; Δ 22.15pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 90.02% (prev 68.80%; Δ 21.22pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 25.78 (EBITDA TTM 44.40b / Interest Expense TTM 1.42b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 5.00
| (A) 0.07 = (Total Current Assets 22.83b - Total Current Liabilities 15.64b) / Total Assets 108.79b |
| (B) 0.41 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 44.11b / Total Assets 108.79b |
| (C) 0.35 = EBIT TTM 36.65b / Avg Total Assets 104.39b |
| (D) 0.84 = Book Value of Equity 47.68b / Total Liabilities 56.57b |
| Total Rating: 5.00 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 85.43
| 1. Piotroski 8.50pt = 3.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield 13.42% = 5.0 |
| 3. FCF Margin 21.47% = 5.37 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.51 = 2.37 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.28 = 2.44 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 26.45)% = 12.50 |
| 7. RoE 42.61% = 2.50 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 15.86% = 1.19 |
| 9. EPS Trend 11.25% = 0.56 |
What is the price of BHP shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.06%, over one month by -5.86%, over three months by +1.74% and over the past year by +5.80%.
Is BHP a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the BHP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 53.3 | -0.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 53.3 | -0.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 56.5 | 5.7% |
BHP Fundamental Data Overview November 20, 2025
P/E Trailing = 15.3897
P/E Forward = 12.6422
P/S = 2.6915
P/B = 2.9984
Beta = 0.676
Revenue TTM = 93.97b USD
EBIT TTM = 36.65b USD
EBITDA TTM = 44.40b USD
Long Term Debt = 20.17b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.66b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 24.50b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 12.60b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 150.30b USD (137.97b + Debt 24.50b - CCE 12.17b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 25.78 (Ebit TTM 36.65b / Interest Expense TTM 1.42b)
FCF Yield = 13.42% (FCF TTM 20.17b / Enterprise Value 150.30b)
FCF Margin = 21.47% (FCF TTM 20.17b / Revenue TTM 93.97b)
Net Margin = 20.72% (Net Income TTM 19.47b / Revenue TTM 93.97b)
Gross Margin = 79.94% ((Revenue TTM 93.97b - Cost of Revenue TTM 18.85b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 100.0% (prev 36.71%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.38 (Enterprise Value 150.30b / Total Assets 108.79b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.84% (Interest Expense 451.1m / Debt 24.50b)
Taxrate = 39.51% (3.83b / 9.68b)
NOPAT = 22.17b (EBIT 36.65b * (1 - 39.51%))
Current Ratio = 1.46 (Total Current Assets 22.83b / Total Current Liabilities 15.64b)
Debt / Equity = 0.51 (Debt 24.50b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 47.66b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.28 (Net Debt 12.60b / EBITDA 44.40b)
Debt / FCF = 0.62 (Net Debt 12.60b / FCF TTM 20.17b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 45.70b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 17.90% (Net Income 19.47b / Total Assets 108.79b)
RoE = 42.61% (Net Income TTM 19.47b / Total Stockholder Equity 45.70b)
RoCE = 55.65% (EBIT 36.65b / Capital Employed (Equity 45.70b + L.T.Debt 20.17b))
RoIC = 34.31% (NOPAT 22.17b / Invested Capital 64.63b)
WACC = 7.86% (E(137.97b)/V(162.47b) * Re(9.06%) + D(24.50b)/V(162.47b) * Rd(1.84%) * (1-Tc(0.40)))
Discount Rate = 9.06% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 0.05%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 71.74% ; FCFE base≈18.49b ; Y1≈15.73b ; Y5≈12.07b
Fair Price DCF = 73.01 (DCF Value 185.37b / Shares Outstanding 2.54b; 5y FCF grow -18.13% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 11.25 | EPS CAGR: -47.51% | SUE: -1.11 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 15.86 | Revenue CAGR: 17.88% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for BHP Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle