BHP Stock Analysis: BHP | NYSE

Other Industrial Metals & Mining | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 211.687m USD | 12M Return: 65.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Iron Ore, Copper, Coal, Nickel
Total Rating 65
Safety 76
Buy Signal 0.47
Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Industry Rotation: -2.2
Market Cap: 212B
Avg Turnover: 230M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility32.8%
VaR 5th Pctl5.85%
VaR vs Median8.32%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.58
Rel. Str. IBD82.3
Rel. Str. Peer Group84.7
Character TTM
Beta1.206
Beta Downside1.198
Hurst Exponent0.453
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD37.21%
CAGR/Max DD0.40
CAGR/Mean DD1.14
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of BHP over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 2.9319, "2021-09": null, "2021-12": 3.7236, "2022-03": null, "2022-06": 8.4643, "2022-12": 2.5456, "2023-06": 2.5484, "2023-12": 0.3651, "2024-06": 2.7463, "2024-12": 1.7376, "2025-06": 1.8111, "2025-12": 2.2204,
EPS CAGR: -1.21%
EPS Trend: -5.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of BHP over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 33072, 2021-09: 15415.5, 2021-12: 30831, 2022-03: 17290, 2022-06: 34580, 2022-12: 25984, 2023-06: 27833, 2023-12: 27232, 2024-06: 28426, 2024-12: 25176, 2025-06: 26086, 2025-12: 27950.363,
Rev. CAGR: -1.32%
Rev. Trend: -43.6%
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

No concerns identified

Tailwinds

Idiosyncratic Leader
Confidence

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +4.7% 30
Feb -3.5% 12
Mar -1.4% 0
Apr -1.9% 27
May +2.5% 18
Jun -1.3% 17
Jul +1.7% 20
Aug -2.7% 33
Sep +1.5% 9
Oct -2.1% 21
Nov +1.6% 20
Dec +6.2% 41

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: BHP BHP

BHP Group Limited is a global resources company headquartered in Melbourne, Australia, founded in 1851. It operates across Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, the rest of Asia, North America, South America, and other international markets through three primary segments: Copper, Iron Ore, and Coal.

In addition to copper, iron ore, and metallurgical and energy coal, the company mines uranium, gold, zinc, lead, molybdenum, silver, and cobalt. It also engages in nickel mining, smelting, and refining, and holds potash development activities. BHP further provides towing, freight, marketing and trading, marketing support, finance, and administrative services.

As a member of the GICS Materials sector and Diversified Metals & Mining sub-industry, BHPs business model spans the full mining value chain, from exploration and extraction to processing, refining, and downstream marketing of mineral commodities. Listed on the NYSE under the ticker BHP since 1987, the company is classified as a mega-cap stock.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Chinese steel demand drives iron ore segment revenue
  • Copper output growth benefits from electrification demand
  • Capital returns expand through record dividends and buybacks
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.0
Net Income: 10.3b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.61 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 18.88% < 20% (prev 15.97%; Δ 2.91% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 19.8b > Net Income 10.3b
Net Debt (21.0b) to EBITDA (26.9b): 0.78 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.65 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (2.54b) vs 12m ago 0.26% < -2%
Gross Margin: 83.05% > 18% (prev 58.15%; Δ 24.90% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 49.86% > 50% (prev 53.22%; Δ -3.35% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 24.93 > 6 (EBIT TTM 21.8b / Interest Expense TTM 874.9m)
Altman Z'' 4.08
A: 0.09 (Total Current Assets 25.9b - Total Current Liabilities 15.7b) / Total Assets 116b
B: 0.39 (Retained Earnings 45.3b / Total Assets 116b)
C: 0.20 (EBIT TTM 21.8b / Avg Total Assets 108b)
D: 0.83 (Book Value of Equity 50.4b / Total Liabilities 60.5b)
Altman-Z'' = 4.08 = AA
Beneish M -2.98
DSRI: 1.16 (Receivables 5.87b/5.04b, Revenue 54.0b/53.6b)
GMI: 0.70 (GM 58.15% / 83.05%)
AQI: 1.32 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.07)
SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 54.0b / 53.6b)
TATA: -0.08 (NI 10.3b - CFO 19.8b) / TA 116b)
Beneish M = -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of BHP shares?

As of July 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 81.68 with a total of 1,287,077 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.98%, over one month by -1.53%, over three months by +6.34% and over the past year by +65.22%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 75.10 (which is 8.1% or 2.7 ATR below the current price).

Is BHP a buy, sell or hold?

BHP has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy BHP.

  • StrongBuy: 3
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the BHP price?
Analysts Target Price 73.8 -9.7%
BHP (BHP) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 05 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 212b (212b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 20.7289
P/E Forward = 15.625
P/S = 3.921
P/B = 4.1436
P/EG = 5.9512
Revenue TTM = 54.0b USD
EBIT TTM = 21.8b USD
EBITDA TTM = 26.9b USD
Long Term Debt = 24.6b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.43b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 34.5b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 2.95b
Net Debt = 21.0b USD (calculated: Debt 34.5b - CCE 13.5b)
Enterprise Value = 233b USD (212b + Debt 34.5b - CCE 13.5b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 24.93 (Ebit TTM 21.8b / Interest Expense TTM 874.9m)
EV/FCF = 22.60x (Enterprise Value 233b / FCF TTM 10.3b)
FCF Yield = 4.42% (FCF TTM 10.3b / Enterprise Value 233b)
FCF Margin = 19.05% (FCF TTM 10.3b / Revenue TTM 54.0b)
Net Margin = 18.97% (Net Income TTM 10.3b / Revenue TTM 54.0b)
Gross Margin = 83.05% ((Revenue TTM 54.0b - Cost of Revenue TTM 9.16b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 42.85% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.01 (Enterprise Value 233b / Total Assets 116b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.54% (Interest Expense 874.9m / Debt 34.5b)
Taxrate = 38.88% (8.26b / 21.3b)
NOPAT = 13.3b (EBIT 21.8b * (1 - 38.88%))
Current Ratio = 1.65 (Total Current Assets 25.9b / Total Current Liabilities 15.7b)
Debt / Equity = 0.68 (Debt 34.5b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 50.4b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.78 (Net Debt 21.0b / EBITDA 26.9b)
Debt / FCF = 2.04 (Net Debt 21.0b / FCF TTM 10.3b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 47.1b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.46% (Net Income 10.3b / Total Assets 116b)
RoE = 21.77% (Net Income TTM 10.3b / Total Stockholder Equity 47.1b)
RoCE = 30.42% (EBIT 21.8b / Capital Employed (Equity 47.1b + L.T.Debt 24.6b))
RoIC = 13.20% (NOPAT 13.3b / Invested Capital 101b)
WACC = 9.01% (E(212b)/V(246b) * Re(10.22%) + D(34.5b)/V(246b) * Rd(2.54%) * (1-Tc(0.39)))
Discount Rate = 10.22% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 74.00 | Cagr: 0.14%
[DCF] Terminal Value 72.80% ; FCFF base≈10.4b ; Y1≈10.2b ; Y5≈10.4b
[DCF] Fair Price = 49.18 (EV 146b - Net Debt 21.0b = Equity 125b / Shares 2.54b; r=9.01% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -2.53% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -5.27 | EPS CAGR: -1.21% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -43.60 | Revenue CAGR: -1.32% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=5.10 | Chg30d=+2.79% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+27.3% | GrowthRev=+12.2%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=5.53 | Chg30d=+3.98% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+8.6% | GrowthRev=-0.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +40% (up=2, down=0)