(BKD) Brookdale Senior Living - Overview
Stock: Independent Living, Assisted Living, Memory Care, Skilled Nursing, CCRC
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 54.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -18.4% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.98 |
| Alpha | 229.64 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.864 |
| Beta Downside | 0.739 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 43.55% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.87 |
Description: BKD Brookdale Senior Living January 16, 2026
Brookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) owns, manages, and operates a portfolio of senior-living communities across the United States, organized into three core segments: Independent Living (middle- to upper-income seniors in mixed independent/assisted units), Assisted Living & Memory Care (freestanding facilities providing 24-hour support and dementia-specific services), and Continuing Care Retirement Communities (CCRCs) that combine independent, assisted, memory-care, and skilled-nursing options, often under management-contract arrangements.
As of Q3 2024, Brookdale reported an overall occupancy of roughly 87% and an average daily rate (ADR) of about $3,500, reflecting strong demand from the aging Baby Boomer cohort. However, the company faces sector-wide pressures from rising labor costs, inflation-linked operating expenses, and tighter Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement rules-factors that compress margins unless offset by higher ADRs or cost-efficiency initiatives. The senior-housing market’s growth rate remains anchored to demographic trends, with the U.S. population aged 65+ projected to increase by 10% over the next five years, supporting long-term demand for both independent and higher-level care.
For a deeper dive into how Brookdale’s valuation stacks up against peers and the broader senior-care landscape, you might find ValueRay’s analytical tools useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: -232.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.67 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -3.18% < 20% (prev -3.73%; Δ 0.55% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 228.7m > Net Income -232.2m |
| Net Debt (5.24b) to EBITDA (3.20b): 1.64 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.84 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (234.3m) vs 12m ago 2.72% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 28.38% > 18% (prev 0.27%; Δ 2810 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 53.03% > 50% (prev 49.75%; Δ 3.28% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 9.32 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 3.20b / Interest Expense TTM 306.0m) |
Altman Z'' 0.04
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 536.9m - Total Current Liabilities 637.8m) / Total Assets 6.01b |
| B: -0.71 (Retained Earnings -4.26b / Total Assets 6.01b) |
| C: 0.48 (EBIT TTM 2.85b / Avg Total Assets 5.98b) |
| D: -0.71 (Book Value of Equity -4.26b / Total Liabilities 6.02b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.04 = B |
Beneish M -2.89
| DSRI: 1.19 (Receivables 67.6m/53.0m, Revenue 3.17b/2.95b) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 28.38% / 27.21%) |
| AQI: 1.08 (AQ_t 0.02 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 3.17b / 2.95b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI -232.2m - CFO 228.7m) / TA 6.01b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.89 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of BKD shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.00%, over one month by +43.93%, over three months by +62.66% and over the past year by +257.43%.
Is BKD a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the BKD price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 19 | 17.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 19 | 17.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 20.5 | 26.9% |
BKD Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/S = 1.1918
P/B = 18.976
P/EG = -0.75
Revenue TTM = 3.17b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.85b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.20b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.16b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 186.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.50b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 5.24b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 8.92b USD (3.67b + Debt 5.50b - CCE 253.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 9.32 (Ebit TTM 2.85b / Interest Expense TTM 306.0m)
EV/FCF = 220.2x (Enterprise Value 8.92b / FCF TTM 40.5m)
FCF Yield = 0.45% (FCF TTM 40.5m / Enterprise Value 8.92b)
FCF Margin = 1.28% (FCF TTM 40.5m / Revenue TTM 3.17b)
Net Margin = -7.33% (Net Income TTM -232.2m / Revenue TTM 3.17b)
Gross Margin = 28.38% ((Revenue TTM 3.17b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.27b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.86% (prev 26.56%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.48 (Enterprise Value 8.92b / Total Assets 6.01b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.18% (Interest Expense 119.7m / Debt 5.50b)
Taxrate = 0.01% (167.0k / 3.00b)
NOPAT = 2.85b (EBIT 2.85b * (1 - 0.01%))
Current Ratio = 0.84 (Total Current Assets 536.9m / Total Current Liabilities 637.8m)
Debt / Equity = -816.7 (out of range, set to none) (Debt 5.50b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -6.73m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.64 (Net Debt 5.24b / EBITDA 3.20b)
Debt / FCF = 129.5 (Net Debt 5.24b / FCF TTM 40.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 114.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.89% (Net Income -232.2m / Total Assets 6.01b)
RoE = -202.9% (Net Income TTM -232.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 114.5m)
RoCE = 66.69% (EBIT 2.85b / Capital Employed (Equity 114.5m + L.T.Debt 4.16b))
RoIC = 65.56% (NOPAT 2.85b / Invested Capital 4.35b)
WACC = 4.95% (E(3.67b)/V(9.17b) * Re(9.10%) + D(5.50b)/V(9.17b) * Rd(2.18%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 9.10% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.95%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈40.5m ; Y1≈26.6m ; Y5≈12.1m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 386.5m - Net Debt 5.24b = -4.86b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 42.49 | EPS CAGR: 143.5% | SUE: 2.45 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 92.40 | Revenue CAGR: 5.94% | SUE: -0.18 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.09 | Chg30d=+0.030 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.43 | Chg30d=+0.120 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+61.3% | Growth Revenue=-4.6%