(BLD) Topbuild - Ratings and Ratios
Insulation, Installation Services, Distribution, Building Materials
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 39.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 59.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.95% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.55 |
| Alpha | 3.97 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.94 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.377 |
| Beta | 0.956 |
| Beta Downside | 0.554 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 42.41% |
| Mean DD | 14.09% |
| Median DD | 10.35% |
Description: BLD Topbuild October 31, 2025
TopBuild Corp. (NYSE: BLD) operates two primary segments-Installation and Specialty Distribution-providing a broad portfolio of insulation and building-material products, including fiberglass, spray-foam, cellulose, glass, gutters, roofing, and interior finish items. The company both installs insulation for residential, commercial, and industrial projects and distributes related products through a network of branches and distribution centers across the United States and Canada.
Its customer base spans single-family homebuilders, multi-family developers, commercial general contractors, remodelers, and a variety of specialty contractors (e.g., gutter, weatherization, and modular home builders). By serving both end-users and professional installers, TopBuild captures value at multiple points in the construction supply chain.
From recent filings, TopBuild reported FY 2023 revenue of approximately $1.33 billion with an adjusted EBITDA margin near 12%, and same-store sales grew about 5% year-over-year. The business is highly sensitive to housing-starts data-U.S. single-family starts rose 3% YoY in Q3 2024-and to federal energy-efficiency incentives that boost demand for higher-performance insulation. Additionally, material-cost inflation and tightening mortgage rates remain key macro variables that can compress margins or dampen new-construction volumes.
For a deeper, data-driven look at how these drivers are reflected in TopBuild’s valuation metrics, you may find ValueRay’s analyst toolkit useful for further research.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income (567.8m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 314.2m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.12 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -2.67pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 30.64% (prev 14.42%; Δ 16.21pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 (>3.0%) and CFO 845.8m > Net Income 567.8m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (1.95b) to EBITDA (995.4m) ratio: 1.96 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 2.90 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (28.2m) change vs 12m ago -5.75% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 29.73% (prev 30.62%; Δ -0.89pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 94.68% (prev 114.0%; Δ -19.37pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 10.21 (EBITDA TTM 995.4m / Interest Expense TTM 82.8m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 5.25
| (A) 0.25 = (Total Current Assets 2.45b - Total Current Liabilities 842.7m) / Total Assets 6.41b |
| (B) 0.53 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 3.41b / Total Assets 6.41b |
| (C) 0.15 = EBIT TTM 845.6m / Avg Total Assets 5.53b |
| (D) 0.81 = Book Value of Equity 3.39b / Total Liabilities 4.19b |
| Total Rating: 5.25 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 79.68
| 1. Piotroski 6.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 5.57% |
| 3. FCF Margin 15.11% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.39 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.96 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 7.85)% |
| 7. RoE 26.12% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 63.96% |
| 9. EPS Trend 72.66% |
What is the price of BLD shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.10%, over one month by +6.20%, over three months by +3.26% and over the past year by +26.07%.
Is BLD a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 6
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the BLD price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 480.9 | 12.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 480.9 | 12.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 547.2 | 27.7% |
BLD Fundamental Data Overview December 16, 2025
P/E Trailing = 22.1724
P/E Forward = 21.1864
P/S = 2.3426
P/B = 5.504
Beta = 1.676
Revenue TTM = 5.24b USD
EBIT TTM = 845.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 995.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.80b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 136.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.09b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.95b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 14.21b USD (12.27b + Debt 3.09b - CCE 1.14b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 10.21 (Ebit TTM 845.6m / Interest Expense TTM 82.8m)
FCF Yield = 5.57% (FCF TTM 791.2m / Enterprise Value 14.21b)
FCF Margin = 15.11% (FCF TTM 791.2m / Revenue TTM 5.24b)
Net Margin = 10.84% (Net Income TTM 567.8m / Revenue TTM 5.24b)
Gross Margin = 29.73% ((Revenue TTM 5.24b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.68b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 30.07% (prev 30.37%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.22 (Enterprise Value 14.21b / Total Assets 6.41b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.92% (Interest Expense 28.4m / Debt 3.09b)
Taxrate = 25.34% (48.3m / 190.5m)
NOPAT = 631.3m (EBIT 845.6m * (1 - 25.34%))
Current Ratio = 2.90 (Total Current Assets 2.45b / Total Current Liabilities 842.7m)
Debt / Equity = 1.39 (Debt 3.09b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.22b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.96 (Net Debt 1.95b / EBITDA 995.4m)
Debt / FCF = 2.46 (Net Debt 1.95b / FCF TTM 791.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.17b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.86% (Net Income 567.8m / Total Assets 6.41b)
RoE = 26.12% (Net Income TTM 567.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.17b)
RoCE = 17.01% (EBIT 845.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.17b + L.T.Debt 2.80b))
RoIC = 15.61% (NOPAT 631.3m / Invested Capital 4.04b)
WACC = 7.76% (E(12.27b)/V(15.35b) * Re(9.54%) + D(3.09b)/V(15.35b) * Rd(0.92%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 9.54% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -5.83%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 76.14% ; FCFE base≈753.9m ; Y1≈897.1m ; Y5≈1.41b
Fair Price DCF = 658.1 (DCF Value 18.47b / Shares Outstanding 28.1m; 5y FCF grow 20.26% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 72.66 | EPS CAGR: 15.52% | SUE: 0.28 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 63.96 | Revenue CAGR: 7.47% | SUE: 0.64 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=4.51 | Chg30d=-0.058 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=11
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=20.99 | Chg30d=-0.390 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+5.9% | Growth Revenue=+13.9%
Additional Sources for BLD Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle