(BLD) Topbuild - Overview
Insulation, Glass, Gutters, Garage Doors, Fireplaces
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 40.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.89% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.97 |
| Alpha | 20.04 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.953 |
| Beta Downside | 0.572 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 42.41% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.79 |
Description: BLD Topbuild January 03, 2026
TopBuild Corp. (NYSE: BLD) operates two core segments-Installation and Specialty Distribution-providing a broad portfolio of insulation, building-material, and related products (e.g., glass, gutters, garage doors, fireplaces, roofing, and closet shelving) to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across the United States and Canada. The Installation segment installs fiberglass batts, blown-in loose-fill fiberglass and cellulose, and polyurethane spray-foam insulation, while the Specialty Distribution segment supplies mechanical insulation, accessories, and other building-product materials to homebuilders, remodelers, contractors, dealers, and modular-home manufacturers.
Key recent data points: FY 2023 revenue was approximately $2.1 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of roughly 10% and a backlog of about $500 million, indicating steady demand despite higher material-cost inflation. The business is sensitive to housing-starts trends-U.S. single-family starts rose 3.5% YoY in Q4 2023-and to federal weatherization incentives, which have boosted demand for energy-efficiency retrofits. Additionally, the company’s geographic expansion in Canada adds a diversification benefit, as Canadian residential construction grew 2.2% YoY in 2023.
For a deeper, data-driven dive into TopBuild’s valuation dynamics, you may find ValueRay’s analytical toolkit useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 567.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.67 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 30.64% < 20% (prev 14.42%; Δ 16.21% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 845.8m > Net Income 567.8m |
| Net Debt (1.95b) to EBITDA (995.4m): 1.96 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.90 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (28.2m) vs 12m ago -5.75% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 29.73% > 18% (prev 0.31%; Δ 2942 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 94.68% > 50% (prev 114.0%; Δ -19.37% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 10.21 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 995.4m / Interest Expense TTM 82.8m) |
Altman Z'' 5.25
| A: 0.25 (Total Current Assets 2.45b - Total Current Liabilities 842.7m) / Total Assets 6.41b |
| B: 0.53 (Retained Earnings 3.41b / Total Assets 6.41b) |
| C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 845.6m / Avg Total Assets 5.53b) |
| D: 0.81 (Book Value of Equity 3.39b / Total Liabilities 4.19b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 5.25 = AAA |
Beneish M -3.03
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 874.3m/827.8m, Revenue 5.24b/5.30b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 29.73% / 30.62%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.54 / AQ_t-1 0.57) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 5.24b / 5.30b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 567.8m - CFO 845.8m) / TA 6.41b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.03 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of BLD shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.44%, over one month by +12.73%, over three months by +8.61% and over the past year by +41.35%.
Is BLD a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the BLD price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 491 | 1.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 491 | 1.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 614.7 | 27.5% |
BLD Fundamental Data Overview January 29, 2026
P/E Forward = 23.31
P/S = 2.5825
P/B = 6.0676
Revenue TTM = 5.24b USD
EBIT TTM = 845.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 995.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.80b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 136.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.09b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.95b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 15.47b USD (13.52b + Debt 3.09b - CCE 1.14b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 10.21 (Ebit TTM 845.6m / Interest Expense TTM 82.8m)
EV/FCF = 19.55x (Enterprise Value 15.47b / FCF TTM 791.2m)
FCF Yield = 5.12% (FCF TTM 791.2m / Enterprise Value 15.47b)
FCF Margin = 15.11% (FCF TTM 791.2m / Revenue TTM 5.24b)
Net Margin = 10.84% (Net Income TTM 567.8m / Revenue TTM 5.24b)
Gross Margin = 29.73% ((Revenue TTM 5.24b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.68b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 30.07% (prev 30.37%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.41 (Enterprise Value 15.47b / Total Assets 6.41b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.92% (Interest Expense 28.4m / Debt 3.09b)
Taxrate = 25.34% (48.3m / 190.5m)
NOPAT = 631.3m (EBIT 845.6m * (1 - 25.34%))
Current Ratio = 2.90 (Total Current Assets 2.45b / Total Current Liabilities 842.7m)
Debt / Equity = 1.39 (Debt 3.09b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.22b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.96 (Net Debt 1.95b / EBITDA 995.4m)
Debt / FCF = 2.46 (Net Debt 1.95b / FCF TTM 791.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.17b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.27% (Net Income 567.8m / Total Assets 6.41b)
RoE = 26.12% (Net Income TTM 567.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.17b)
RoCE = 17.01% (EBIT 845.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.17b + L.T.Debt 2.80b))
RoIC = 15.61% (NOPAT 631.3m / Invested Capital 4.04b)
WACC = 7.80% (E(13.52b)/V(16.61b) * Re(9.43%) + D(3.09b)/V(16.61b) * Rd(0.92%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 9.43% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -5.83%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.42% ; FCFF base≈753.9m ; Y1≈897.1m ; Y5≈1.41b
Fair Price DCF = 817.1 (EV 24.88b - Net Debt 1.95b = Equity 22.94b / Shares 28.1m; r=7.80% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 20.26% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -28.82 | EPS CAGR: -43.10% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 63.96 | Revenue CAGR: 7.47% | SUE: 0.64 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=4.41 | Chg30d=-0.076 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=12
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=20.95 | Chg30d=+0.003 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+5.7% | Growth Revenue=+13.8%