(BRSL) Brightstar Lottery - Ratings and Ratios
Lottery, Terminal, Ticket, iLottery, Retail
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 18.00% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 25.16% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 41.42% |
| Payout Consistency | 79.1% |
| Payout Ratio | - |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 30.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 45.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.07% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.49 |
| Alpha | -1.55 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.04 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.451 |
| Beta | 0.871 |
| Beta Downside | 0.931 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 54.45% |
| Mean DD | 27.94% |
| Median DD | 34.63% |
Description: BRSL Brightstar Lottery November 14, 2025
Brightstar Lottery PLC (NYSE:BRSL) designs, sells, operates, and leases point-of-sale (POS) lottery terminals across the United States, Italy, the rest of Europe, and other international markets. Its portfolio also includes instant-ticket production, iLottery platforms, and a suite of ancillary services such as prepaid mobile recharges, bill-payment processing, e-voucher issuance, and retail-focused marketing campaigns. The company, originally International Game Technology PLC, rebranded to Brightstar Lottery PLC in July 2025 and is headquartered in London.
Key industry metrics that shape Brightstar’s outlook include: (1) the U.S. lottery market, which generated roughly $80 billion in ticket sales in 2023 and is growing at ~3 % CAGR, driven by expanding digital-lottery channels; (2) European regulated gambling revenues, projected to reach €30 billion by 2026, with Italy accounting for about 15 % of that total; and (3) a sector-wide shift toward cashless transactions, where prepaid and e-voucher services now represent ~12 % of total lottery-related transaction volume, providing a steady ancillary revenue stream for operators like Brightstar.
Assuming FY2023 revenue of $1.2 billion and an EBITDA margin of 15 % (consistent with peers in the regulated gambling space), Brightstar’s earnings profile appears modestly resilient to macro-economic swings, but remains sensitive to regulatory changes in key jurisdictions such as the U.S. “lottery-as-a-service” licensing framework and Italy’s recent tightening of instant-ticket advertising rules. A material shift in any of these regulatory environments would materially alter the company’s growth trajectory.
For a deeper quantitative dive, you might explore ValueRay’s detailed valuation model for BRSL.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income (304.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 149.6m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -8.34pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -36.25% (prev 137.4%; Δ -173.7pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 (>3.0%) and CFO 398.0m > Net Income 304.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (2.61b) to EBITDA (933.0m) ratio: 2.80 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.74 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (196.0m) change vs 12m ago -2.97% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 45.63% (prev 47.03%; Δ -1.40pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 25.53% (prev 24.79%; Δ 0.74pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 3.12 (EBITDA TTM 933.0m / Interest Expense TTM 182.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -0.44
| (A) -0.10 = (Total Current Assets 2.52b - Total Current Liabilities 3.42b) / Total Assets 9.29b |
| (B) -0.06 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -574.0m / Total Assets 9.29b |
| (C) 0.06 = EBIT TTM 568.0m / Avg Total Assets 9.77b |
| (D) 0.01 = Book Value of Equity 70.0m / Total Liabilities 7.93b |
| Total Rating: -0.44 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 45.95
| 1. Piotroski 5.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 1.68% |
| 3. FCF Margin 4.13% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 4.94 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.80 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 1.34)% |
| 7. RoE 21.35% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -44.01% |
| 9. EPS Trend -52.21% |
What is the price of BRSL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.06%, over one month by +0.19%, over three months by -7.48% and over the past year by +15.47%.
Is BRSL a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the BRSL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | - | - |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 20 | 27.5% |
BRSL Fundamental Data Overview December 19, 2025
P/E Trailing = 157.2727
P/E Forward = 16.835
P/S = 1.4323
P/B = 2.1154
Beta = None
Revenue TTM = 2.49b USD
EBIT TTM = 568.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 933.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.06b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 151.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.31b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.61b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.12b USD (3.51b + Debt 4.31b - CCE 1.70b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.12 (Ebit TTM 568.0m / Interest Expense TTM 182.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.68% (FCF TTM 103.1m / Enterprise Value 6.12b)
FCF Margin = 4.13% (FCF TTM 103.1m / Revenue TTM 2.49b)
Net Margin = 12.19% (Net Income TTM 304.0m / Revenue TTM 2.49b)
Gross Margin = 45.63% ((Revenue TTM 2.49b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.36b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.19% (prev 43.49%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.66 (Enterprise Value 6.12b / Total Assets 9.29b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.84% (Interest Expense 36.0m / Debt 4.31b)
Taxrate = 29.85% (40.0m / 134.0m)
NOPAT = 398.4m (EBIT 568.0m * (1 - 29.85%))
Current Ratio = 0.74 (Total Current Assets 2.52b / Total Current Liabilities 3.42b)
Debt / Equity = 4.94 (Debt 4.31b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 871.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.80 (Net Debt 2.61b / EBITDA 933.0m)
Debt / FCF = 25.34 (Net Debt 2.61b / FCF TTM 103.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.42b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.27% (Net Income 304.0m / Total Assets 9.29b)
RoE = 21.35% (Net Income TTM 304.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.42b)
RoCE = 10.35% (EBIT 568.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.42b + L.T.Debt 4.06b))
RoIC = 5.80% (NOPAT 398.4m / Invested Capital 6.87b)
WACC = 4.46% (E(3.51b)/V(7.82b) * Re(9.22%) + D(4.31b)/V(7.82b) * Rd(0.84%) * (1-Tc(0.30)))
Discount Rate = 9.22% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.01%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 65.32% ; FCFE base≈449.4m ; Y1≈295.0m ; Y5≈134.9m
Fair Price DCF = 10.90 (DCF Value 2.20b / Shares Outstanding 202.0m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -52.21 | EPS CAGR: 5.65% | SUE: 0.63 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -44.01 | Revenue CAGR: -4.44% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for BRSL Stock
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