BRSP Stock Analysis: Brightspire Capital | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 480m USD | 12M Return: -15.3% | US10949T1097 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 7.94M
EPS Trend: -97.1%
Qual. Beats: -2
Rev. Trend: -93.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 8.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (NYSE: BRSP) is a commercial real estate (CRE) credit real estate investment trust (REIT) that originates, acquires, finances, and manages a diversified portfolio of CRE debt investments, including senior mortgage loans, mezzanine loans, preferred equity investments, net leased real estate, and CRE debt securities. The company operates through three segments: Senior and Mezzanine Loans and Preferred Equity; Net Leased and Other Real Estate; and Corporate and Other, with operations spanning the United States and Norway.
As a REIT, BrightSpire benefits from a pass-through tax structure, avoiding federal corporate income tax provided it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders. CRE credit REITs like BrightSpire typically generate income from interest payments and lease revenue rather than direct property appreciation, distinguishing them from equity REITs that own and operate properties. The company was incorporated in 2017, is headquartered in New York, and was previously known as Colony Credit Real Estate, Inc. before rebranding in June 2021.
- Net interest margin compresses amid Fed rate cuts
- Office sector distress pressures CRE loan portfolio valuations
- REIT distribution requirements limit retained capital flexibility
| Net Income: -26.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.18 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2.87% < 20% (prev 744.5%; Δ -741.6% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 85.4m > Net Income -26.9m |
| Net Debt (2.60b) to EBITDA (76.1m): 34.16 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.04 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (126.7m) vs 12m ago -0.42% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 43.24% > 18% (prev 52.42%; Δ -9.18% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 9.23% > 50% (prev 9.71%; Δ -0.48% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.34 > 6 (EBIT TTM 44.1m / Interest Expense TTM 128.2m) |
| A: 0.00 (Total Current Assets 221.1m - Total Current Liabilities 211.6m) / Total Assets 3.75b |
| B: -0.53 (Retained Earnings -1.98b / Total Assets 3.75b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 44.1m / Avg Total Assets 3.58b) |
| D: 0.30 (Book Value of Equity 863.0m / Total Liabilities 2.90b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.31 = CCC |
| DSRI: 0.10 (Receivables 51.4m/2.32b, Revenue 330.3m/331.0m) |
| GMI: 1.21 (GM 52.42% / 43.24%) |
| AQI: 4.08 (AQ_t 0.94 / AQ_t-1 0.23) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 330.3m / 331.0m) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI -26.9m - CFO 85.4m) / TA 3.75b) |
| Beneish M = -1.75 (Cap -4..+1) = CCC |
As of October 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 3.81 with a total of 1,586,604 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.00%, over one month by -12.99%, over three months by -25.42% and over the past year by -15.32%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 3.60 (which is 5.5% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
Brightspire Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy BRSP.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 6.1 | 59.8% |
P/E Forward = 15.5763
P/S = 1.4409
P/B = 0.5938
Revenue TTM = 330.3m USD
EBIT TTM = 44.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 76.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.55b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 211.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.77b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 12.9m
Net Debt = 2.60b USD (calculated: Debt 2.77b - CCE 169.7m)
Enterprise Value = 3.08b USD (479.5m + Debt 2.77b - CCE 169.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.34 (Ebit TTM 44.1m / Interest Expense TTM 128.2m)
EV/FCF = 36.05x (Enterprise Value 3.08b / FCF TTM 85.4m)
FCF Yield = 2.77% (FCF TTM 85.4m / Enterprise Value 3.08b)
FCF Margin = 25.87% (FCF TTM 85.4m / Revenue TTM 330.3m)
Net Margin = -8.13% (Net Income TTM -26.9m / Revenue TTM 330.3m)
Gross Margin = 43.24% ((Revenue TTM 330.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 187.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 50.31% (prev 34.92%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.82 (Enterprise Value 3.08b / Total Assets 3.75b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.63% (Interest Expense 128.2m / Debt 2.77b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 34.9m (EBIT 44.1m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.04 (Total Current Assets 221.1m / Total Current Liabilities 211.6m)
Debt / Equity = 3.21 (Debt 2.77b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 863.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 34.16 (Net Debt 2.60b / EBITDA 76.1m)
Debt / FCF = 30.44 (Net Debt 2.60b / FCF TTM 85.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 923.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.75% (Net Income -26.9m / Total Assets 3.75b)
RoE = -2.91% (Net Income TTM -26.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 923.9m)
RoCE = 1.27% (EBIT 44.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 923.9m + L.T.Debt 2.55b))
RoIC = 0.93% (NOPAT 34.9m / Invested Capital 3.73b)
WACC = 4.38% (E(479.5m)/V(3.25b) * Re(8.57%) + D(2.77b)/V(3.25b) * Rd(4.63%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.57% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -12.29 | Cagr: -0.22%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.68% ; FCFF base≈84.8m ; Y1≈86.5m ; Y5≈94.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.46b - Net Debt 2.60b = -1.14b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -97.08 | EPS CAGR: -22.65% | SUE: -0.85 | # QB: -2
Revenue Correlation: -93.30 | Revenue CAGR: -8.09% | SUE: 0.45 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.14 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-62% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.57 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-62% | GrowthEPS=-10.9% | GrowthRev=+34.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.66 | Chg30d=+0.64% | Revisions=-57% | GrowthEPS=+15.3% | GrowthRev=+0.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -82% (up=0, down=14)