BRSP Stock Analysis: Brightspire Capital | NYSE

REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 709m USD | 12M Return: 18% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Senior Loans, Mezzanine Loans, Preferred Equity, Net Leased Real Estate
Total Rating 35
Safety 69
Buy Signal -0.83
REIT - Mortgage
Industry Rotation: +2.1
Market Cap: 709M
Avg Turnover: 10.7M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility25.2%
VaR 5th Pctl4.49%
VaR vs Median8.21%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.67
Rel. Str. IBD37
Rel. Str. Peer Group54.8
Character TTM
Beta0.847
Beta Downside1.041
Hurst Exponent0.437
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD35.31%
CAGR/Max DD0.06
CAGR/Mean DD0.17
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of BRSP over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": -0.2, "2021-09": 0.26, "2021-12": 0.27, "2022-03": 0.22, "2022-06": 0.24, "2022-09": 0.25, "2022-12": 0.27, "2023-03": 0.27, "2023-06": 0.25, "2023-09": 0.28, "2023-12": 0.28, "2024-03": 0.23, "2024-06": 0.22, "2024-09": 0.14, "2024-12": 0.18, "2025-03": 0.16, "2025-06": 0.18, "2025-09": 0.16, "2025-12": 0.15, "2026-03": 0.14,
EPS CAGR: -20.87%
EPS Trend: -95.3%
Last SUE: -0.87
Qual. Beats: -1
Revenue Revenue of BRSP over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 74.11, 2021-09: 84.264, 2021-12: 121.557, 2022-03: 78.113, 2022-06: 84.585, 2022-09: 95.533, 2022-12: 100.305, 2023-03: 98.167, 2023-06: 96.066, 2023-09: 99.877, 2023-12: 102.759, 2024-03: 92.668, 2024-06: 88.496, 2024-09: 85.638, 2024-12: 83.469, 2025-03: 77.562, 2025-06: 84.331, 2025-09: 81.425, 2025-12: 83.163, 2026-03: 82.169,
Rev. CAGR: -8.26%
Rev. Trend: -94.2%
Last SUE: 0.41
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage
Interest Coverage Ratio Critical
Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 8.4 years of data

Jan +1.1% 10
Feb +0.8% 25
Mar -4.8% 16
Apr -1.0% 14
May +1.1% 15
Jun +1.7% 15
Jul +4.3% 25
Aug -0.3% 6
Sep -5.3% 43
Oct +0.0% 8
Nov +5.3% 10
Dec +0.3% 9

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: BRSP Brightspire Capital

BrightSpire Capital, Inc. (BRSP) is a New York-based commercial real estate (CRE) credit REIT that originates, acquires, finances, and manages a diversified portfolio of CRE debt investments, including senior mortgage loans, mezzanine loans, preferred equity, net leased properties, and CRE debt securities, with operations in the United States and Norway. The company reports through three segments-Senior and Mezzanine Loans and Preferred Equity; Net Leased and Other Real Estate; and Corporate and Other-and also engages in money market activities and private equity fund investments. As a REIT, BrightSpire is required to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders in order to avoid federal corporate income tax. The company was incorporated in 2017, IPOd in February 2018, and was renamed from Colony Credit Real Estate in June 2021.

CRE credit REITs such as BrightSpire typically focus on middle-market commercial real estate financing, a niche that sits between large bank lenders and direct private credit funds, and often concentrate on transitional or value-add assets. Net leased properties, one of the companys investment categories, are generally structured as long-term single-tenant arrangements where the tenant is responsible for most property-level operating expenses, providing more predictable cash flow compared to multi-tenant commercial properties.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Office loan defaults weigh on CRE credit portfolio
  • Floating-rate loans lift net interest margin higher
  • Capital return program supports dividend amid CRE headwinds
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 0.5
Net Income: -31.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.50 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 836.4% < 20% (prev 756.2%; Δ 80.26% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 73.5m > Net Income -31.6m
Current Ratio: 22.74 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (128.9m) vs 12m ago -0.72% < -2%
Gross Margin: 41.24% > 18% (prev 53.79%; Δ -12.56% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 9.20% > 50% (prev 9.44%; Δ -0.24% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.11 > 6 (EBIT TTM -10.6m / Interest Expense TTM 100.2m)
Altman Z'' 3.57
A: 0.76 (Total Current Assets 2.90b - Total Current Liabilities 127.4m) / Total Assets 3.65b
B: -0.53 (Retained Earnings -1.94b / Total Assets 3.65b)
C: -0.00 (EBIT TTM -10.6m / Avg Total Assets 3.60b)
D: 0.33 (Book Value of Equity 917.9m / Total Liabilities 2.74b)
Altman-Z'' = 3.57 = A
Beneish M -2.72
DSRI: 1.16 (Receivables 2.71b/2.36b, Revenue 331.1m/335.2m)
GMI: 1.30 (GM 53.79% / 41.24%)
AQI: 0.84 (AQ_t 0.20 / AQ_t-1 0.24)
SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 331.1m / 335.2m)
TATA: -0.03 (NI -31.6m - CFO 73.5m) / TA 3.65b)
Beneish M = -2.72 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of BRSP shares?

As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 5.36 with a total of 1,092,318 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.47%, over one month by -1.93%, over three months by -5.13% and over the past year by +18.02%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 5.10 (which is 4.9% or 2.2 ATR below the current price).

Is BRSP a buy, sell or hold?

Brightspire Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.86. Therefore, it is recommended to buy BRSP.

  • StrongBuy: 3
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 2
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the BRSP price?
Analysts Target Price 6.5 21.3%
Brightspire Capital (BRSP) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 12 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 708.7m (708.7m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 24.8756
P/S = 2.1095
P/B = 0.7763
Revenue TTM = 331.1m USD
EBIT TTM = -10.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 23.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.59b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 412.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.63b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 19.8m
Net Debt = 2.54b USD (calculated: Debt 2.63b - CCE 96.6m)
Enterprise Value = 3.25b USD (708.7m + Debt 2.63b - CCE 96.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.11 (Ebit TTM -10.6m / Interest Expense TTM 100.2m)
EV/FCF = 44.19x (Enterprise Value 3.25b / FCF TTM 73.5m)
FCF Yield = 2.26% (FCF TTM 73.5m / Enterprise Value 3.25b)
FCF Margin = 22.19% (FCF TTM 73.5m / Revenue TTM 331.1m)
Net Margin = -9.56% (Net Income TTM -31.6m / Revenue TTM 331.1m)
Gross Margin = 41.24% ((Revenue TTM 331.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 194.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 34.92% (prev 50.15%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.89 (Enterprise Value 3.25b / Total Assets 3.65b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.80% (Interest Expense 100.2m / Debt 2.63b)
Taxrate = 2.92% (94.0k / 3.22m)
NOPAT = -10.3m (EBIT -10.6m * (1 - 2.92%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 22.74 (Total Current Assets 2.90b / Total Current Liabilities 127.4m)
Debt / Equity = 2.87 (Debt 2.63b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 917.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 106.6 (Net Debt 2.54b / EBITDA 23.8m)
Debt / FCF = 34.54 (Net Debt 2.54b / FCF TTM 73.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 956.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.88% (Net Income -31.6m / Total Assets 3.65b)
RoE = -3.31% (Net Income TTM -31.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 956.8m)
RoCE = -0.30% (EBIT -10.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 956.8m + L.T.Debt 2.59b))
 RoIC = -0.26% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -10.3m / Invested Capital 3.92b)
 WACC = 4.81% (E(708.7m)/V(3.34b) * Re(8.96%) + D(2.63b)/V(3.34b) * Rd(3.80%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Discount Rate = 8.96% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 21.08 | Cagr: 0.70%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈79.8m ; Y1≈70.0m ; Y5≈56.5m
 [DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 907.6m - Net Debt 2.54b = -1.63b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
 EPS Correlation: -95.30 | EPS CAGR: -20.87% | SUE: -0.87 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: -94.18 | Revenue CAGR: -8.26% | SUE: 0.41 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.15 | Chg30d=-2.81% | Revisions=-62% | Analysts=7
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.15 | Chg30d=-2.67% | Revisions=-67% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.61 | Chg30d=-1.31% | Revisions=-67% | GrowthEPS=-4.9% | GrowthRev=+34.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.70 | Chg30d=-2.19% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+15.0% | GrowthRev=-2.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -87% (up=0, down=20)