BTE Stock Analysis: Baytex Energy | NYSE
Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.125m USD | 12M Return: 83.5% | CA07317Q1054 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 84.8M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -70.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Baytex Energy Corp. is a Canada-based energy company focused on the acquisition, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. Its operations are concentrated in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, where it produces light oil and condensate, heavy oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. The company holds 100% working interests in the Duvernay and Peace River properties in Alberta, as well as the Lloydminster property spanning Alberta and Saskatchewan. Founded in 1993 and headquartered in Calgary, Baytex trades on the NYSE under the ticker BTE and is classified within the Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sub-industry.
As an upstream exploration and production (E&P) operator, Baytexs business model centers on locating, extracting, and selling hydrocarbons rather than refining or retail distribution. The Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin is one of the largest petroleum-producing regions in North America, and the Duvernay shale formation is recognized as a liquids-rich resource play, while the Lloydminster area is historically associated with heavy oil production.
- WTI crude price rally lifts heavy oil revenue
- Duvernay shale production growth expands condensate volumes
- Debt reduction accelerates following Ranger Oil acquisition
| Net Income: -716.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.43 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 169.9% < 20% (prev -6.17%; Δ 176.0% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.33 > 3% & CFO 1.05b > Net Income -716.9m |
| Net Debt (-510.6m) to EBITDA (104.5m): -4.89 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.82 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (726.0m) vs 12m ago -5.97% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 4.70% > 18% (prev 24.84%; Δ -20.14% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 6.83% > 50% (prev 41.82%; Δ -35.00% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.18 > 6 (EBIT TTM -26.7m / Interest Expense TTM 146.2m) |
| A: 0.20 (Total Current Assets 964.0m - Total Current Liabilities 342.4m) / Total Assets 3.17b |
| B: -1.27 (Retained Earnings -4.02b / Total Assets 3.17b) |
| C: -0.00 (EBIT TTM -26.7m / Avg Total Assets 5.36b) |
| D: 2.12 (Book Value of Equity 2.15b / Total Liabilities 1.02b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.66 = B |
| DSRI: 3.0 (Receivables 188.3m/363.5m, Revenue 365.9m/3.16b) |
| GMI: 5.28 (GM 24.84% / 4.70%) |
| AQI: 0.48 (AQ_t 0.01 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 0.12 (Revenue 365.9m / 3.16b) |
| TATA: -0.56 (NI -716.9m - CFO 1.05b) / TA 3.17b) |
| Beneish M = 1.50 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of October 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 4.58 with a total of 25,032,989 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.10%, over one month by -6.04%, over three months by +14.58% and over the past year by +83.45%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 4.30 (which is 6.1% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Baytex Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.73. Therefore, it is recommended to hold BTE.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 6.7 | 46.1% |
Market Cap CAD = 4.46b (3.13b USD * 1.4261 USD.CAD)
P/E Forward = 14.9477
P/S = 1.8925
P/B = 2.0871
P/EG = -0.98
Revenue TTM = 365.9m CAD
EBIT TTM = -26.7m CAD
EBITDA TTM = 104.5m CAD
Long Term Debt = 89.2m CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 10.4m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 209.7m CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 60.3m
Net Debt = -510.6m CAD (calculated: Debt 209.7m - CCE 720.3m)
Enterprise Value = 3.95b CAD (4.46b + Debt 209.7m - CCE 720.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.18 (Ebit TTM -26.7m / Interest Expense TTM 146.2m)
EV/FCF = 14.97x (Enterprise Value 3.95b / FCF TTM 263.5m)
FCF Yield = 6.68% (FCF TTM 263.5m / Enterprise Value 3.95b)
FCF Margin = 72.02% (FCF TTM 263.5m / Revenue TTM 365.9m)
Net Margin = -195.9% (Net Income TTM -716.9m / Revenue TTM 365.9m)
Gross Margin = 4.70% ((Revenue TTM 365.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 348.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 40.73% (prev 22.84%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.24 (Enterprise Value 3.95b / Total Assets 3.17b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 69.73% (Interest Expense 146.2m / Debt 209.7m)
Taxrate = 24.61% (55.1m / 223.7m)
NOPAT = -20.1m (EBIT -26.7m * (1 - 24.61%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.82 (Total Current Assets 964.0m / Total Current Liabilities 342.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.10 (Debt 209.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.15b)
Debt / EBITDA = -4.89 (Net Debt -510.6m / EBITDA 104.5m)
Debt / FCF = -1.94 (Net Debt -510.6m / FCF TTM 263.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.72b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -13.37% (Net Income -716.9m / Total Assets 3.17b)
RoE = -26.39% (Net Income TTM -716.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.72b)
RoCE = -0.95% (EBIT -26.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.72b + L.T.Debt 89.2m))
RoIC = -0.71% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -20.1m / Invested Capital 2.82b)
WACC = 8.00% (E(4.46b)/V(4.67b) * Re(8.38%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 8.38% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -96.68 | Cagr: -5.36%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈366.0m ; Y1≈321.0m ; Y5≈259.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 6.68 (EV 4.16b - Net Debt -510.6m = Equity 4.67b / Shares 699.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.71 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -70.17 | Revenue CAGR: -46.33% | SUE: 0.26 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.15 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.32 | Chg30d=+6.67% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+370.6% | GrowthRev=-45.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.40 | Chg30d=+3.95% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+23.4% | GrowthRev=-11.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -38% (up=1, down=4)