BTE Stock Analysis: Baytex Energy | NYSE
Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.772m USD | 12M Return: 115.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 80.5M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -47.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Baytex Energy Corp. is a Calgary-based energy company that acquires, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas, primarily from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. Its production portfolio spans light oil and condensate, heavy oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas, with core assets including 100% working interests in the Duvernay and Peace River properties in Alberta, as well as the Lloydminster property spanning Alberta and Saskatchewan. The company has been operating since its incorporation in 1993 and trades on the NYSE under the ticker BTE.
As an oil and gas exploration and production company, Baytex operates in one of the worlds largest hydrocarbon basins, the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, which supplies a significant share of North American crude. The Duvernay shale play is recognized as one of Canadas most prospective liquids-rich resource plays, while the Peace River and Lloydminster areas are known for heavy oil and bitumen development, giving the company exposure to both light and heavy crude markets.
- WTI crude price weakness pressures Canadian heavy oil margins
- Ranger Oil acquisition expands US Eagle Ford light oil production
- WCS heavy differential narrows on TMX pipeline startup boosting egress
| Net Income: -739.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.85 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 101.6% < 20% (prev -7.34%; Δ 108.9% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.36 > 3% & CFO 1.18b > Net Income -739.6m |
| Net Debt (-555.4m) to EBITDA (316.4m): -1.76 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.15 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (747.2m) vs 12m ago -3.50% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -15.41% > 18% (prev 27.68%; Δ -43.09% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 9.54% > 50% (prev 42.66%; Δ -33.12% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.05 > 6 (EBIT TTM -10.1m / Interest Expense TTM 187.1m) |
| A: 0.16 (Total Current Assets 1.00b - Total Current Liabilities 466.9m) / Total Assets 3.26b |
| B: -1.28 (Retained Earnings -4.19b / Total Assets 3.26b) |
| C: -0.00 (EBIT TTM -10.1m / Avg Total Assets 5.54b) |
| D: 1.90 (Book Value of Equity 2.14b / Total Liabilities 1.12b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -1.12 = CCC |
| DSRI: 3.0 (Receivables 195.5m/391.9m, Revenue 528.8m/3.34b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 2.59 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 0.16 (Revenue 528.8m / 3.34b) |
| TATA: -0.59 (NI -739.6m - CFO 1.18b) / TA 3.26b) |
| Beneish M = -1.10 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of July 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 4.15 with a total of 20,719,983 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.75%, over one month by -15.19%, over three months by +0.10% and over the past year by +115.10%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 3.90 (which is 6% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Baytex Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.73. Therefore, it is recommended to hold BTE.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 5.1 | 22.9% |
Market Cap CAD = 3.94b (2.77b USD * 1.4196 USD.CAD)
P/E Forward = 22.6757
P/S = 1.8638
P/B = 1.8452
P/EG = -0.98
Revenue TTM = 528.8m CAD
EBIT TTM = -10.1m CAD
EBITDA TTM = 316.4m CAD
Long Term Debt = 87.6m CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 9.44m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 204.4m CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 58.2m
Net Debt = -555.4m CAD (calculated: Debt 204.4m - CCE 759.8m)
Enterprise Value = 3.38b CAD (3.94b + Debt 204.4m - CCE 759.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.05 (Ebit TTM -10.1m / Interest Expense TTM 187.1m)
EV/FCF = 17.57x (Enterprise Value 3.38b / FCF TTM 192.3m)
FCF Yield = 5.69% (FCF TTM 192.3m / Enterprise Value 3.38b)
FCF Margin = 36.37% (FCF TTM 192.3m / Revenue TTM 528.8m)
Net Margin = -139.9% (Net Income TTM -739.6m / Revenue TTM 528.8m)
Gross Margin = -15.41% ((Revenue TTM 528.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 610.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.84% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.04 (Enterprise Value 3.38b / Total Assets 3.26b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 91.55% (Interest Expense 187.1m / Debt 204.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -7.97m (EBIT -10.1m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.15 (Total Current Assets 1.00b / Total Current Liabilities 466.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.10 (Debt 204.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.14b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.76 (Net Debt -555.4m / EBITDA 316.4m)
Debt / FCF = -2.89 (Net Debt -555.4m / FCF TTM 192.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.20b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -13.34% (Net Income -739.6m / Total Assets 3.26b)
RoE = -23.11% (Net Income TTM -739.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.20b)
RoCE = -0.31% (EBIT -10.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.20b + L.T.Debt 87.6m))
RoIC = -0.29% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -7.97m / Invested Capital 2.78b)
WACC = 9.14% (E(3.94b)/V(4.14b) * Re(9.62%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 9.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -94.39 | Cagr: -4.79%
[DCF] Terminal Value 70.17% ; FCFF base≈389.3m ; Y1≈341.4m ; Y5≈275.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 6.27 (EV 3.91b - Net Debt -555.4m = Equity 4.47b / Shares 712.6m; r=9.14% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.65 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -47.76 | Revenue CAGR: -27.03% | SUE: 0.09 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.08 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.15 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.38 | Chg30d=-14.61% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+458.8% | GrowthRev=-44.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.37 | Chg30d=-9.76% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=-2.6% | GrowthRev=-14.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -22% (up=2, down=4)