BTU Stock Analysis: Peabody Energy | NYSE

Thermal Coal | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.334m USD | 12M Return: 17% | US7045511000 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Metallurgical Coal, Thermal Coal, Sub-Bituminous Coal
Total Rating 35
Safety 21
Buy Signal -1.39
Thermal Coal
Industry Rotation: -22.9
Market Cap: 3.33B
Avg Turnover: 60.5M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility57.7%
VaR 5th Pctl9.68%
VaR vs Median1.79%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.49
Rel. Str. IBD22.1
Rel. Str. Peer Group70
Character TTM
Beta0.906
Beta Downside1.353
Hurst Exponent0.627
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD65.14%
CAGR/Max DD0.07
CAGR/Mean DD0.19
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of BTU over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-09": 2.04, "2021-12": 3.46, "2022-03": -0.88, "2022-06": 2.81, "2022-09": 1.93, "2022-12": 3.92, "2023-03": 1.26, "2023-06": 1.17, "2023-09": 0.89, "2023-12": 1.3, "2024-03": 0.47, "2024-06": 1.39, "2024-09": 0.77, "2024-12": 0.34, "2025-03": 0.33, "2025-06": 0.09, "2025-09": 0.03, "2025-12": 0.05, "2026-03": -0.18, "2026-06": -0.74,
Last SUE: -1.45
Qual. Beats: -2
Revenue Revenue of BTU over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-09: 679, 2021-12: 1264.6, 2022-03: 691.4, 2022-06: 1321.9, 2022-09: 1342.5, 2022-12: 1626.1, 2023-03: 1364, 2023-06: 1268.8, 2023-09: 1078.9, 2023-12: 1235, 2024-03: 983.6, 2024-06: 1042, 2024-09: 1088, 2024-12: 1123.1, 2025-03: 937, 2025-06: 890.1, 2025-09: 1012.1, 2025-12: 1022.3, 2026-03: 973.3, 2026-06: 1003.2,
Rev. CAGR: -9.52%
Rev. Trend: -91.1%
Last SUE: -0.60
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Interest Coverage Ratio Critical
Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation
Fakeout
Below Avwap Earnings
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 9.3 years of data

Jan +6.6% 16
Feb -3.8% 29
Mar -1.5% 26
Apr -3.7% 26
May +5.9% 6
Jun +3.4% 19
Jul +1.2% 8
Aug +2.0% 6
Sep -1.0% 11
Oct -5.6% 43
Nov +0.5% 0
Dec +0.7% 0

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: BTU Peabody Energy

Peabody Energy Corporation is a U.S.-based coal producer that mines and sells both metallurgical coal (used in steelmaking) and thermal coal (used for power generation) through four operating segments: Seaborne Thermal, Seaborne Metallurgical, Powder River Basin, and Other U.S. Thermal. The company operates surface mining operations in New South Wales and Queensland in Australia, as well as in Alabama and Wyoming in the United States, and supplies its coal primarily to electricity generators, industrial facilities, and steel manufacturers.

Founded in 1883 and headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri, Peabody produces sub-bituminous coal deposits with lower sulfur content and Btu values typical of Powder River Basin output, a region that ranks among the largest coal-producing areas in the United States. The company is listed on the NYSE under the ticker BTU and is classified within the GICS Coal & Consumable Fuels sub-industry of the Energy sector.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Metallurgical coal margins expand on tight seaborne supply and Asian demand
  • Powder River Basin volumes pressured by gas competition and plant retirements
  • Shareholder returns boost as debt declines and free cash flow grows
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.0
Net Income: -182.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.93 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 20.28% < 20% (prev 22.05%; Δ -1.77% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.16 > 3% & CFO 849.7m > Net Income -182.7m
Net Debt (-15.5m) to EBITDA (284.4m): -0.05 < 3
Current Ratio: 2.01 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (122.0m) vs 12m ago 0.25% < -2%
Gross Margin: 2.18% > 18% (prev 16.74%; Δ -14.55% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 71.54% > 50% (prev 70.07%; Δ 1.48% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -3.46 > 6 (EBIT TTM -154.5m / Interest Expense TTM 44.7m)
Altman Z'' 3.11
A: 0.15 (Total Current Assets 1.62b - Total Current Liabilities 806.2m) / Total Assets 5.45b
B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 1.21b / Total Assets 5.45b)
C: -0.03 (EBIT TTM -154.5m / Avg Total Assets 5.61b)
D: 1.51 (Book Value of Equity 3.25b / Total Liabilities 2.15b)
Altman-Z'' = 3.11 = A
Beneish M 1.00
DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 328.8m/322.7m, Revenue 4.01b/4.04b)
GMI: 7.66 (GM 16.74% / 2.18%)
AQI: 0.79 (AQ_t 0.14 / AQ_t-1 0.17)
SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 4.01b / 4.04b)
TATA: -0.19 (NI -182.7m - CFO 849.7m) / TA 5.45b)
Beneish M = 2.88 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of BTU shares?

As of September 21, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 25.22 with a total of 9,324,268 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -10.60%, over one month by +0.16%, over three months by +2.01% and over the past year by +17.01%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 23.60 (which is 6.4% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is BTU a buy, sell or hold?

Peabody Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.33. Therefore, it is recommended to buy BTU.

  • StrongBuy: 4
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 2
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the BTU price?
Analysts Target Price 30.8 21.9%
Peabody Energy (BTU) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 17 September 2026
Market Cap USD = 3.33b (3.33b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Forward = 24.6914
P/S = 0.8312
P/B = 1.0004
Revenue TTM = 4.01b USD
EBIT TTM = -154.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 284.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 325.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 13.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 510.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 85.9m
Net Debt = -15.5m USD (calculated: Debt 510.8m - CCE 526.3m)
Enterprise Value = 3.32b USD (3.33b + Debt 510.8m - CCE 526.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -3.46 (Ebit TTM -154.5m / Interest Expense TTM 44.7m)
EV/FCF = 7.33x (Enterprise Value 3.32b / FCF TTM 452.5m)
FCF Yield = 13.64% (FCF TTM 452.5m / Enterprise Value 3.32b)
FCF Margin = 11.28% (FCF TTM 452.5m / Revenue TTM 4.01b)
Net Margin = -4.56% (Net Income TTM -182.7m / Revenue TTM 4.01b)
Gross Margin = 2.18% ((Revenue TTM 4.01b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.92b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -7.18% (prev 11.16%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.61 (Enterprise Value 3.32b / Total Assets 5.45b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.75% (Interest Expense 44.7m / Debt 510.8m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = -122.1m (EBIT -154.5m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.01 (Total Current Assets 1.62b / Total Current Liabilities 806.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.16 (Debt 510.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.25b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.05 (Net Debt -15.5m / EBITDA 284.4m)
Debt / FCF = -0.03 (Net Debt -15.5m / FCF TTM 452.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.46b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -3.26% (Net Income -182.7m / Total Assets 5.45b)
RoE = -5.29% (Net Income TTM -182.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.46b)
RoCE = -4.09% (EBIT -154.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.46b + L.T.Debt 325.5m))
 RoIC = -2.74% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -122.1m / Invested Capital 4.46b)
 WACC = 8.87% (E(3.33b)/V(3.84b) * Re(9.17%) + D(510.8m)/V(3.84b) * Rd(8.75%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.17% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -90.39 | Cagr: -7.36%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.30% ; FCFF base≈349.3m ; Y1≈400.4m ; Y5≈589.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 66.77 (EV 8.12b - Net Debt -15.5m = Equity 8.14b / Shares 121.9m; r=8.87% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -1.45 | # QB: -2
Revenue Correlation: -91.08 | Revenue CAGR: -9.52% | SUE: -0.60 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.04 | Chg30d=-95.47% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.26 | Chg30d=-133.33% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-156.2% | GrowthRev=+10.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.84 | Chg30d=-27.16% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+1179.8% | GrowthRev=+8.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -67% (up=0, down=6)