BXMT Stock Analysis: Blackstone Mortgage Trust | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.888m USD | 12M Return: -36% | US09257W1009 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 35.6M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -95.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is a real estate finance company that originates, acquires, and manages loans and other debt or credit-oriented investments secured by commercial real estate. Its investment portfolio consists primarily of senior floating-rate mortgage loans backed by first-priority mortgages on commercial properties across the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, Spain, Sweden, Canada, and other European and international markets. The company operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) for U.S. federal income tax purposes, was incorporated in 1998, and is headquartered in New York, New York. It was formerly known as Capital Trust, Inc. before adopting its current name in May 2013.
As a mortgage REIT, BXMT generates revenue primarily through interest income on its loan portfolio rather than rental income from owned properties. The senior floating-rate structure of its loans typically ties interest payments to a benchmark rate, which can help offset interest rate risk on the companys funding side.
- Commercial real estate loan defaults rise as office sector struggles
- Net interest margin pressured by Fed rate cuts on floating rate loans
- Dividend sustainability concerns grow amid CRE refinancing wave
| Net Income: 15.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.99 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -544.6% < 20% (prev 993.7%; Δ -1.54k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 118.1m > Net Income 15.3m |
| Net Debt (15.4b) to EBITDA (941.8m): 16.33 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (169.0m) vs 12m ago -1.70% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 66.64% > 18% (prev 84.84%; Δ -18.20% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 7.62% > 50% (prev 7.69%; Δ -0.07% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.94 > 6 (EBIT TTM 873.0m / Interest Expense TTM 929.9m) |
| A: -0.43 (Total Current Assets 569.6m - Total Current Liabilities 8.86b) / Total Assets 19.4b |
| B: -0.11 (Retained Earnings -2.19b / Total Assets 19.4b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 873.0m / Avg Total Assets 20.0b) |
| D: 0.20 (Book Value of Equity 3.26b / Total Liabilities 16.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -2.67 = D |
| DSRI: 0.83 (Receivables 136.2m/169.8m, Revenue 1.52b/1.58b) |
| GMI: 1.27 (GM 84.84% / 66.64%) |
| AQI: 16.39 (AQ_t 0.97 / AQ_t-1 0.06) |
| SGI: 0.96 (Revenue 1.52b / 1.58b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 15.3m - CFO 118.1m) / TA 19.4b) |
| Beneish M = 6.18 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of October 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.58 with a total of 3,352,766 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.54%, over one month by -16.48%, over three months by -35.67% and over the past year by -36.01%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 10.00 (which is 5.5% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Blackstone Mortgage Trust has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy BXMT.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 18.9 | 78.3% |
P/E Trailing = 140.0
P/E Forward = 57.1429
P/S = 4.6889
P/B = 0.679
P/EG = 254.8
Revenue TTM = 1.52b USD
EBIT TTM = 873.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 941.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 7.11b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 8.71b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 15.8b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 15.4b USD (calculated: Debt 15.8b - CCE 432.8m)
Enterprise Value = 17.3b USD (1.89b + Debt 15.8b - CCE 432.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.94 (Ebit TTM 873.0m / Interest Expense TTM 929.9m)
EV/FCF = 146.2x (Enterprise Value 17.3b / FCF TTM 118.1m)
FCF Yield = 0.68% (FCF TTM 118.1m / Enterprise Value 17.3b)
FCF Margin = 7.76% (FCF TTM 118.1m / Revenue TTM 1.52b)
Net Margin = 1.01% (Net Income TTM 15.3m / Revenue TTM 1.52b)
Gross Margin = 66.64% ((Revenue TTM 1.52b - Cost of Revenue TTM 508.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 20.37%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.89 (Enterprise Value 17.3b / Total Assets 19.4b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.88% (Interest Expense 929.9m / Debt 15.8b)
Taxrate = 27.00% (5.71m / 21.1m)
NOPAT = 637.3m (EBIT 873.0m * (1 - 27.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.06 (Total Current Assets 569.6m / Total Current Liabilities 8.86b)
Debt / Equity = 4.85 (Debt 15.8b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.26b)
Debt / EBITDA = 16.33 (Net Debt 15.4b / EBITDA 941.8m)
Debt / FCF = 130.2 (Net Debt 15.4b / FCF TTM 118.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.44b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.08% (Net Income 15.3m / Total Assets 19.4b)
RoE = 0.45% (Net Income TTM 15.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.44b)
RoCE = 8.28% (EBIT 873.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.44b + L.T.Debt 7.11b))
RoIC = 3.32% (NOPAT 637.3m / Invested Capital 19.2b)
WACC = 4.59% (E(1.89b)/V(17.7b) * Re(7.04%) + D(15.8b)/V(17.7b) * Rd(5.88%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 7.04% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -96.59 | Cagr: -1.31%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈202.6m ; Y1≈177.7m ; Y5≈143.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 2.30b - Net Debt 15.4b = -13.1b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.11 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -95.27 | Revenue CAGR: -11.84% | SUE: 0.69 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.25 | Chg30d=-4.70% | Revisions=-62% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.27 | Chg30d=+0.33% | Revisions=-62% | GrowthEPS=+188.9% | GrowthRev=-12.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.49 | Chg30d=-4.10% | Revisions=-67% | GrowthEPS=+16.8% | GrowthRev=-3.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -84% (up=0, down=16)