BXMT Stock Analysis: Blackstone Mortgage Trust | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.945m USD | 12M Return: -5.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 26.0M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -87.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is a real estate finance company that originates, acquires, and manages loans and other debt-oriented investments collateralized by commercial real estate. Its investment portfolio consists primarily of senior floating-rate mortgage loans secured by first-priority liens on commercial real estate assets, and the company operates internationally across the United States, United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, Spain, Sweden, Canada, and other European markets. BXMT is structured as a real estate investment trust (REIT) for federal income tax purposes, which generally requires it to distribute the majority of its taxable income to shareholders as dividends.
As a mortgage REIT, BXMT functions as an externally managed commercial real estate debt platform within the broader Financials sector. The company was originally incorporated in 1998 under the name Capital Trust, Inc. and was renamed Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. in May 2013. It is headquartered in New York, New York, and its common stock trades on the NYSE under the ticker BXMT.
- Floating-rate loan portfolio benefits from elevated SOFR environment
- Office sector loan defaults pressure credit quality and earnings
- Dividend sustainability in focus after recent payout reductions
| Net Income: 103.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.11 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -557.4% < 20% (prev 929.9%; Δ -1.49k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 345.1m > Net Income 103.6m |
| Net Debt (15.3b) to EBITDA (964.5m): 15.91 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.07 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (169.1m) vs 12m ago -1.70% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 62.56% > 18% (prev 89.25%; Δ -26.69% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 7.76% > 50% (prev 8.27%; Δ -0.51% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.93 > 6 (EBIT TTM 895.7m / Interest Expense TTM 967.5m) |
| A: -0.44 (Total Current Assets 688.8m - Total Current Liabilities 9.25b) / Total Assets 19.6b |
| B: -0.10 (Retained Earnings -2.03b / Total Assets 19.6b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 895.7m / Avg Total Assets 19.8b) |
| D: 0.21 (Book Value of Equity 3.41b / Total Liabilities 16.2b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -2.67 = D |
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 137.0m/146.6m, Revenue 1.54b/1.65b) |
| GMI: 1.43 (GM 89.25% / 62.56%) |
| AQI: 19.89 (AQ_t 0.96 / AQ_t-1 0.05) |
| SGI: 0.93 (Revenue 1.54b / 1.65b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 103.6m - CFO 345.1m) / TA 19.6b) |
| Beneish M = 8.51 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 17.05 with a total of 1,017,175 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.16%, over one month by -4.56%, over three months by -11.41% and over the past year by -5.26%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 16.50 (which is 3.2% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Blackstone Mortgage Trust has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold BXMT.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 20.9 | 22.5% |
P/E Trailing = 29.1
P/E Forward = 57.1429
P/S = 6.3073
P/B = 0.8521
P/EG = 254.8
Revenue TTM = 1.54b USD
EBIT TTM = 895.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 964.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 6.80b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 9.09b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 15.9b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 15.3b USD (calculated: Debt 15.9b - CCE 549.2m)
Enterprise Value = 18.3b USD (2.95b + Debt 15.9b - CCE 549.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.93 (Ebit TTM 895.7m / Interest Expense TTM 967.5m)
EV/FCF = 53.00x (Enterprise Value 18.3b / FCF TTM 345.1m)
FCF Yield = 1.89% (FCF TTM 345.1m / Enterprise Value 18.3b)
FCF Margin = 22.47% (FCF TTM 345.1m / Revenue TTM 1.54b)
Net Margin = 6.75% (Net Income TTM 103.6m / Revenue TTM 1.54b)
Gross Margin = 62.56% ((Revenue TTM 1.54b - Cost of Revenue TTM 574.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 20.37% (prev 70.26%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.93 (Enterprise Value 18.3b / Total Assets 19.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.09% (Interest Expense 967.5m / Debt 15.9b)
Taxrate = 3.81% (4.11m / 107.8m)
NOPAT = 861.5m (EBIT 895.7m * (1 - 3.81%))
Current Ratio = 0.07 (Total Current Assets 688.8m / Total Current Liabilities 9.25b)
Debt / Equity = 4.65 (Debt 15.9b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.41b)
Debt / EBITDA = 15.91 (Net Debt 15.3b / EBITDA 964.5m)
Debt / FCF = 44.47 (Net Debt 15.3b / FCF TTM 345.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.53b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.52% (Net Income 103.6m / Total Assets 19.6b)
RoE = 2.94% (Net Income TTM 103.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.53b)
RoCE = 8.67% (EBIT 895.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.53b + L.T.Debt 6.80b))
RoIC = 4.44% (NOPAT 861.5m / Invested Capital 19.4b)
WACC = 6.22% (E(2.95b)/V(18.8b) * Re(8.21%) + D(15.9b)/V(18.8b) * Rd(6.09%) * (1-Tc(0.04)))
Discount Rate = 8.21% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -86.67 | Cagr: -1.07%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.39% ; FCFF base≈356.0m ; Y1≈335.5m ; Y5≈313.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 4.94b - Net Debt 15.3b = -10.4b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.22 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -87.20 | Revenue CAGR: -10.31% | SUE: 0.70 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.37 | Chg30d=-7.01% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=7
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.37 | Chg30d=-7.82% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.45 | Chg30d=-0.07% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+201.7% | GrowthRev=+2.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.94 | Chg30d=-1.13% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+33.7% | GrowthRev=-8.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -22% (up=2, down=4)