BXMT Stock Analysis: Blackstone Mortgage Trust | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.405m USD | 12M Return: -20.6% | US09257W1009 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 36.4M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -95.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT) is a real estate finance company that originates, acquires, and manages loans and other debt-oriented investments collateralized by commercial real estate. Its investment portfolio consists primarily of senior floating-rate mortgage loans secured by first-priority liens on commercial real estate assets, and the company operates internationally across the United States, United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, Spain, Sweden, Canada, and other European markets. BXMT is structured as a real estate investment trust (REIT) for federal income tax purposes, which generally requires it to distribute the majority of its taxable income to shareholders as dividends.
As a mortgage REIT, BXMT functions as an externally managed commercial real estate debt platform within the broader Financials sector. The company was originally incorporated in 1998 under the name Capital Trust, Inc. and was renamed Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. in May 2013. It is headquartered in New York, New York, and its common stock trades on the NYSE under the ticker BXMT.
- Floating-rate loan portfolio benefits from elevated SOFR environment
- Office sector loan defaults pressure credit quality and earnings
- Dividend sustainability in focus after recent payout reductions
| Net Income: 15.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.99 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -544.1% < 20% (prev 993.7%; Δ -1.54k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 118.1m > Net Income 15.4m |
| Net Debt (15.4b) to EBITDA (832.6m): 18.48 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (169.0m) vs 12m ago -1.70% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 43.90% > 18% (prev 84.84%; Δ -40.94% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 7.62% > 50% (prev 7.69%; Δ -0.07% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.82 > 6 (EBIT TTM 763.7m / Interest Expense TTM 929.9m) |
| A: -0.43 (Total Current Assets 569.6m - Total Current Liabilities 8.86b) / Total Assets 19.4b |
| B: -0.11 (Retained Earnings -2.19b / Total Assets 19.4b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 763.7m / Avg Total Assets 20.0b) |
| D: 0.20 (Book Value of Equity 3.26b / Total Liabilities 16.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -2.70 = D |
| DSRI: 0.83 (Receivables 136.2m/169.8m, Revenue 1.52b/1.58b) |
| GMI: 1.93 (GM 84.84% / 43.90%) |
| AQI: 16.39 (AQ_t 0.97 / AQ_t-1 0.06) |
| SGI: 0.96 (Revenue 1.52b / 1.58b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 15.4m - CFO 118.1m) / TA 19.4b) |
| Beneish M = 6.78 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of August 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.92 with a total of 2,087,772 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.73%, over one month by -16.25%, over three months by -21.57% and over the past year by -20.58%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 13.30 (which is 4.5% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Blackstone Mortgage Trust has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold BXMT.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 18.9 | 35.5% |
P/E Trailing = 178.375
P/E Forward = 57.1429
P/S = 5.9742
P/B = 0.7374
P/EG = 254.8
Revenue TTM = 1.52b USD
EBIT TTM = 763.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 832.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 7.11b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 8.71b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 15.8b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 15.4b USD (calculated: Debt 15.8b - CCE 432.8m)
Enterprise Value = 17.8b USD (2.41b + Debt 15.8b - CCE 432.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.82 (Ebit TTM 763.7m / Interest Expense TTM 929.9m)
EV/FCF = 150.6x (Enterprise Value 17.8b / FCF TTM 118.1m)
FCF Yield = 0.66% (FCF TTM 118.1m / Enterprise Value 17.8b)
FCF Margin = 7.75% (FCF TTM 118.1m / Revenue TTM 1.52b)
Net Margin = 1.01% (Net Income TTM 15.4m / Revenue TTM 1.52b)
Gross Margin = 43.90% ((Revenue TTM 1.52b - Cost of Revenue TTM 855.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 5.35% (prev 20.37%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.92 (Enterprise Value 17.8b / Total Assets 19.4b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.88% (Interest Expense 929.9m / Debt 15.8b)
Taxrate = 27.00% (5.71m / 21.1m)
NOPAT = 557.5m (EBIT 763.7m * (1 - 27.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.06 (Total Current Assets 569.6m / Total Current Liabilities 8.86b)
Debt / Equity = 4.85 (Debt 15.8b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.26b)
Debt / EBITDA = 18.48 (Net Debt 15.4b / EBITDA 832.6m)
Debt / FCF = 130.2 (Net Debt 15.4b / FCF TTM 118.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.44b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.08% (Net Income 15.4m / Total Assets 19.4b)
RoE = 0.45% (Net Income TTM 15.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.44b)
RoCE = 7.24% (EBIT 763.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.44b + L.T.Debt 7.11b))
RoIC = 2.91% (NOPAT 557.5m / Invested Capital 19.2b)
WACC = 4.66% (E(2.41b)/V(18.2b) * Re(7.09%) + D(15.8b)/V(18.2b) * Rd(5.88%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 7.09% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -96.59 | Cagr: -1.31%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈202.6m ; Y1≈177.7m ; Y5≈143.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 2.30b - Net Debt 15.4b = -13.1b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.11 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -95.24 | Revenue CAGR: -11.83% | SUE: 0.69 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.27 | Chg30d=-28.78% | Revisions=-57% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.23 | Chg30d=-15.43% | Revisions=-62% | GrowthEPS=+186.0% | GrowthRev=-2.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.55 | Chg30d=-20.28% | Revisions=-67% | GrowthEPS=+26.0% | GrowthRev=-18.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -83% (up=0, down=15)