CAE Stock Analysis: CAE | NYSE
Aerospace & Defense | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 8.577m USD | 12M Return: -12.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 17.0M
EPS Trend: 65.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 97.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
CAE Inc. is a Canada-based global provider of training, simulation, and critical operation solutions, operating across two segments: Civil Aviation and Defense and Security. The Civil Aviation segment offers flight, cabin, maintenance, and air traffic control training, along with flight simulation training devices, ab initio pilot training, crew sourcing, and airline operations digital solutions. The Defense and Security segment delivers platform-independent training and simulation solutions to defense forces, OEMs, government agencies, and public safety organizations worldwide. The company, originally incorporated in 1947 and renamed CAE Inc. in 1993, is headquartered in Saint-Laurent, Canada, and trades on the NYSE as a mid-cap Industrials stock within the Aerospace & Defense sub-industry.
CAE operates within the aerospace and defense training services sector, which is characterized by high regulatory barriers and long-term customer relationships driven by certification requirements and recurring training mandates. The business model is anchored in a large installed base of flight simulation devices, generating recurring revenue through crew training, simulator upgrades, and support services.
- Pilot shortage drives sustained Civil Aviation training demand
- Defense backlog expands on rising NATO spending commitments
- L3Harris Link acquisition debt pressures profit margins
| Net Income: 313.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.05 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.96% < 20% (prev -11.53%; Δ 9.57% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 760.7m > Net Income 313.3m |
| Net Debt (3.45b) to EBITDA (1.02b): 3.40 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.96 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (323.2m) vs 12m ago 0.65% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 28.30% > 18% (prev 27.62%; Δ 0.69% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 43.92% > 50% (prev 41.98%; Δ 1.94% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.62 > 6 (EBIT TTM 555.6m / Interest Expense TTM 212.1m) |
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 2.27b - Total Current Liabilities 2.37b) / Total Assets 11.2b |
| B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 2.49b / Total Assets 11.2b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 555.6m / Avg Total Assets 11.2b) |
| D: 0.92 (Book Value of Equity 5.32b / Total Liabilities 5.77b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.97 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 1.17b/1.15b, Revenue 4.92b/4.71b) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 27.62% / 28.30%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.46 / AQ_t-1 0.47) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 4.92b / 4.71b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 313.3m - CFO 760.7m) / TA 11.2b) |
| Beneish M = -3.05 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 25.83 with a total of 257,281 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.38%, over one month by +0.98%, over three months by -6.14% and over the past year by -12.56%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 24.80 (which is 4% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
CAE has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CAE.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 32.1 | 24.1% |
Market Cap CAD = 12.2b (8.58b USD * 1.417 USD.CAD)
P/E Trailing = 39.2206
P/E Forward = 28.9855
P/S = 1.7453
P/B = 2.1955
P/EG = 1.8268
Revenue TTM = 4.92b CAD
EBIT TTM = 555.6m CAD
EBITDA TTM = 1.02b CAD
Long Term Debt = 2.29b CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 252.7m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.00b CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 762.2m
Net Debt = 3.45b CAD (calculated: Debt 4.00b - CCE 553.8m)
Enterprise Value = 15.6b CAD (12.2b + Debt 4.00b - CCE 553.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.62 (Ebit TTM 555.6m / Interest Expense TTM 212.1m)
EV/FCF = 33.76x (Enterprise Value 15.6b / FCF TTM 462.3m)
FCF Yield = 2.96% (FCF TTM 462.3m / Enterprise Value 15.6b)
FCF Margin = 9.40% (FCF TTM 462.3m / Revenue TTM 4.92b)
Net Margin = 6.37% (Net Income TTM 313.3m / Revenue TTM 4.92b)
Gross Margin = 28.30% ((Revenue TTM 4.92b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.53b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 30.23% (prev 28.93%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.40 (Enterprise Value 15.6b / Total Assets 11.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.30% (Interest Expense 212.1m / Debt 4.00b)
Taxrate = 19.36% (77.5m / 400.4m)
NOPAT = 448.1m (EBIT 555.6m * (1 - 19.36%))
Current Ratio = 0.96 (Total Current Assets 2.27b / Total Current Liabilities 2.37b)
Debt / Equity = 0.75 (Debt 4.00b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.32b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.40 (Net Debt 3.45b / EBITDA 1.02b)
Debt / FCF = 7.47 (Net Debt 3.45b / FCF TTM 462.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.12b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.80% (Net Income 313.3m / Total Assets 11.2b)
RoE = 6.12% (Net Income TTM 313.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.12b)
RoCE = 7.50% (EBIT 555.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.12b + L.T.Debt 2.29b))
RoIC = 5.08% (NOPAT 448.1m / Invested Capital 8.82b)
WACC = 7.96% (E(12.2b)/V(16.2b) * Re(9.18%) + D(4.00b)/V(16.2b) * Rd(5.30%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 9.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 86.67 | Cagr: 0.57%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.23% ; FCFF base≈465.1m ; Y1≈461.1m ; Y5≈476.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 12.35 (EV 7.42b - Net Debt 3.45b = Equity 3.97b / Shares 321.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -1.54% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 65.01 | EPS CAGR: 9.47% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.64 | Revenue CAGR: 10.09% | SUE: 0.14 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.24 | Chg30d=-0.75% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=11
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.27 | Chg30d=-0.04% | Revisions=+29% | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2027-03-31): EPS=1.26 | Chg30d=+1.81% | Revisions=-7% | GrowthEPS=+5.1% | GrowthRev=+0.6%
EPS next Year (2028-03-31): EPS=1.52 | Chg30d=+2.17% | Revisions=-21% | GrowthEPS=+20.4% | GrowthRev=+2.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -9% (up=13, down=16)