(CEPU) Central Puerto S.A. - Ratings and Ratios
Electricity, Renewable, Natural Gas, Forestry
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 55.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 82.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.21% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.38 |
| Alpha | -2.95 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.04 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.521 |
| Beta | 1.244 |
| Beta Downside | 1.242 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 51.70% |
| Mean DD | 14.38% |
| Median DD | 12.58% |
Description: CEPU Central Puerto S.A. November 12, 2025
Central Puerto S.A. (NYSE: CEPU) is an Argentine-based independent power producer that generates electricity from a diversified mix of conventional (combined-cycle, gas- and steam-turbine, cogeneration) and renewable (hydro, wind, solar) assets, while also operating natural-gas transport and distribution, forestry, and mining businesses. The firm was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Buenos Aires.
Key operational metrics (as of FY 2023) show an installed generation capacity of roughly 5 GW, of which about 70 % is gas-fired and 30 % renewable-a composition that aligns with Argentina’s ongoing shift toward cleaner energy under the “RenovAr” program. CEPU’s EBITDA for 2023 was approximately US$ 400 million, but the company carries a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio near 3.5×, reflecting the high-cost financing environment in the country. The firm’s revenue is highly sensitive to Argentine electricity tariffs, which are indexed to inflation and subject to periodic regulatory adjustments, and to the peso-dollar exchange rate, which has been volatile (annual inflation > 150 % in 2023). A sector-wide driver is the government’s push to increase renewable capacity to 20 % of the generation mix by 2030, creating both growth opportunities for CEPU’s wind and solar projects and competitive pressure from new entrants.
If you want a data-rich, unbiased assessment of how these macro- and company-specific factors translate into valuation risk and upside, a deeper dive on ValueRay could be worthwhile.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income (286.37b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 58.36b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.00 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -4.26pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 28.19% (prev 33.25%; Δ -5.07pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 (>3.0%) and CFO 79.44b <= Net Income 286.37b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (213.19b) to EBITDA (522.65b) ratio: 0.41 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.40 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (150.3m) change vs 12m ago 0.01% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 37.67% (prev 38.18%; Δ -0.51pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 31.23% (prev 31.61%; Δ -0.38pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 4.75 (EBITDA TTM 522.65b / Interest Expense TTM 82.94b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 5.06
| (A) 0.07 = (Total Current Assets 953.14b - Total Current Liabilities 679.00b) / Total Assets 3655.51b |
| (B) 0.52 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 1896.20b / Total Assets 3655.51b |
| (C) 0.13 = EBIT TTM 393.99b / Avg Total Assets 3113.97b |
| (D) 1.93 = Book Value of Equity 2371.02b / Total Liabilities 1227.25b |
| Total Rating: 5.06 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 73.40
| 1. Piotroski 3.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 0.37% |
| 3. FCF Margin 1.41% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.12 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.41 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 8.13)% |
| 7. RoE 13.59% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 86.45% |
| 9. EPS Trend 34.37% |
What is the price of CEPU shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.44%, over one month by +8.02%, over three months by +88.90% and over the past year by +8.16%.
Is CEPU a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CEPU price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 17.8 | 10.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 17.8 | 10.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 22.8 | 40.9% |
CEPU Fundamental Data Overview December 12, 2025
P/E Trailing = 13.4127
P/S = 0.0032
P/B = 1.5361
Beta = 0.002
Revenue TTM = 972.62b ARS
EBIT TTM = 393.99b ARS
EBITDA TTM = 522.65b ARS
Long Term Debt = 337.71b ARS (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 280.09b ARS (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 280.09b ARS (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 213.19b ARS (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3750.16b ARS (3869.31b + Debt 280.09b - CCE 399.24b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.75 (Ebit TTM 393.99b / Interest Expense TTM 82.94b)
FCF Yield = 0.37% (FCF TTM 13.74b / Enterprise Value 3750.16b)
FCF Margin = 1.41% (FCF TTM 13.74b / Revenue TTM 972.62b)
Net Margin = 29.44% (Net Income TTM 286.37b / Revenue TTM 972.62b)
Gross Margin = 37.67% ((Revenue TTM 972.62b - Cost of Revenue TTM 606.26b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 41.17% (prev 27.83%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.03 (Enterprise Value 3750.16b / Total Assets 3655.51b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.00% (Interest Expense 11.5m / Debt 280.09b)
Taxrate = -17.53% (negative due to tax credits) (-20.88b / 119.07b)
NOPAT = 463.08b (EBIT 393.99b * (1 - -17.53%)) [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 1.40 (Total Current Assets 953.14b / Total Current Liabilities 679.00b)
Debt / Equity = 0.12 (Debt 280.09b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2371.02b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.41 (Net Debt 213.19b / EBITDA 522.65b)
Debt / FCF = 15.52 (Net Debt 213.19b / FCF TTM 13.74b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2107.77b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.83% (Net Income 286.37b / Total Assets 3655.51b)
RoE = 13.59% (Net Income TTM 286.37b / Total Stockholder Equity 2107.77b)
RoCE = 16.11% (EBIT 393.99b / Capital Employed (Equity 2107.77b + L.T.Debt 337.71b))
RoIC = 18.02% (NOPAT 463.08b / Invested Capital 2569.88b)
WACC = 9.88% (E(3869.31b)/V(4149.39b) * Re(10.60%) + D(280.09b)/V(4149.39b) * Rd(0.00%) * (1-Tc(-0.18)))
Discount Rate = 10.60% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.00%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 59.87% ; FCFE base≈55.91b ; Y1≈36.71b ; Y5≈16.79b
Fair Price DCF = 1528 (DCF Value 229.60b / Shares Outstanding 150.3m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 34.37 | EPS CAGR: 9.04% | SUE: -0.00 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 86.45 | Revenue CAGR: 115.1% | SUE: 0.17 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.79 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+1.1% | Growth Revenue=+4.0%
Additional Sources for CEPU Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle