(CF) CF Industries Holdings - NYSE
Sector: Basic Materials | Industry: Agricultural Inputs | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 16.819m USD | Total Return: 4.8% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 305M
EPS Trend: 2.5%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: -20.6%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
Idiosyncratic Leader, Confidence
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a global manufacturer of nitrogen-based fertilizers and industrial products. The company operates a large-scale production network focused on ammonia, which serves as the fundamental building block for its downstream nitrogen offerings, including granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and ammonium nitrate (AN).
The business model relies on converting natural gas, which acts as both a fuel source and a primary feedstock, into nitrogen fertilizers. As a result, the company’s profit margins are heavily influenced by the spread between regional natural gas prices and global nitrogen market prices. CF Industries serves a broad customer base ranging from agricultural cooperatives and independent retailers to industrial users of diesel exhaust fluid and nitric acid.
Consulting ValueRay can provide further clarity on how energy price shifts impact this sector. The companys strategic focus currently includes decarbonizing its ammonia production to meet growing demand for low-carbon energy sources.
- Natural gas price volatility directly impacts nitrogen fertilizer production costs
- Global ammonia supply tightness supports elevated nitrogen product pricing
- Strategic investment in clean ammonia production drives long-term decarbonization growth
- Agricultural commodity prices influence North American farmer demand for fertilizer
- Geopolitical tensions disrupt global nitrogen export flows and trade dynamics
| Net Income: 1.76b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.88 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 32.85% < 20% (prev 24.38%; Δ 8.47% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 2.66b > Net Income 1.76b |
| Net Debt (1.98b) to EBITDA (3.71b): 0.53 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.54 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (154.5m) vs 12m ago -8.47% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 40.41% > 18% (prev 37.93%; Δ 2.47% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 53.07% > 50% (prev 46.06%; Δ 7.01% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 17.85 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.80b / Interest Expense TTM 157.0m) |
| A: 0.17 (Total Current Assets 3.39b - Total Current Liabilities 958.0m) / Total Assets 14.6b |
| B: 0.30 (Retained Earnings 4.41b / Total Assets 14.6b) |
| C: 0.20 (EBIT TTM 2.80b / Avg Total Assets 14.0b) |
| D: 0.84 (Book Value of Equity 5.34b / Total Liabilities 6.35b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.31 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 726.0m/582.0m, Revenue 7.41b/6.13b) |
| GMI: 0.94 (GM 37.93% / 40.41%) |
| AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.28 / AQ_t-1 0.30) |
| SGI: 1.21 (Revenue 7.41b / 6.13b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 1.76b - CFO 2.66b) / TA 14.6b) |
| Beneish M = -2.95 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of June 20, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 102.93 with a total of 5,337,453 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.41%,
over one month by -17.80%,
over three months by -18.45% and
over the past year by +4.81%.
CF Industries Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.10. Therefore, it is recommended to hold CF.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 18
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 127.6 | 24% |
P/E Trailing = 9.8631
P/E Forward = 6.3052
P/S = 2.2707
P/B = 3.1485
P/EG = 3.2507
Revenue TTM = 7.41b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.80b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.71b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.22b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 107.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.02b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 404.0m
Net Debt = 1.98b USD (calculated: Debt 4.02b - CCE 2.04b)
Enterprise Value = 18.8b USD (16.8b + Debt 4.02b - CCE 2.04b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 17.85 (Ebit TTM 2.80b / Interest Expense TTM 157.0m)
EV/FCF = 11.60x (Enterprise Value 18.8b / FCF TTM 1.62b)
FCF Yield = 8.62% (FCF TTM 1.62b / Enterprise Value 18.8b)
FCF Margin = 21.88% (FCF TTM 1.62b / Revenue TTM 7.41b)
Net Margin = 23.73% (Net Income TTM 1.76b / Revenue TTM 7.41b)
Gross Margin = 40.41% ((Revenue TTM 7.41b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.41b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.56% (prev 41.08%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.29 (Enterprise Value 18.8b / Total Assets 14.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.90% (Interest Expense 157.0m / Debt 4.02b)
Taxrate = 19.77% (523.0m / 2.65b)
NOPAT = 2.25b (EBIT 2.80b * (1 - 19.77%))
Current Ratio = 3.54 (Total Current Assets 3.39b / Total Current Liabilities 958.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.75 (Debt 4.02b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.34b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.53 (Net Debt 1.98b / EBITDA 3.71b)
Debt / FCF = 1.22 (Net Debt 1.98b / FCF TTM 1.62b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.00b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.59% (Net Income 1.76b / Total Assets 14.6b)
RoE = 35.17% (Net Income TTM 1.76b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.00b)
RoCE = 34.12% (EBIT 2.80b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.00b + L.T.Debt 3.22b))
RoIC = 16.80% (NOPAT 2.25b / Invested Capital 13.4b)
WACC = 6.21% (E(16.8b)/V(20.8b) * Re(6.95%) + D(4.02b)/V(20.8b) * Rd(3.90%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 6.95% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -100.00 | Cagr: -8.91%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.48% ; FCFF base≈1.72b ; Y1≈1.54b ; Y5≈1.29b
[DCF] Fair Price = 121.7 (EV 20.7b - Net Debt 1.98b = Equity 18.7b / Shares 153.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -12.85% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 2.48 | EPS CAGR: 0.69% | SUE: 3.59 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -20.62 | Revenue CAGR: -2.75% | SUE: 2.43 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=5.91 | Chg30d=+48.55% | Revisions=+33% | Analysts=5
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=4.75 | Chg30d=+92.06% | Revisions=+56% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=18.23 | Chg30d=+17.98% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+103.2% | GrowthRev=+21.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=11.16 | Chg30d=-0.16% | Revisions=+56% | GrowthEPS=-38.8% | GrowthRev=-14.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +56%