(CF) CF Industries Holdings - Ratings and Ratios
Exchange: NYSE •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US1252691001
Ammonia, Urea, Nitrate Solutions, Nitric Acid
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.36% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 5.13% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 13.62% |
| Payout Consistency | 97.6% |
| Payout Ratio | 24.1% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 30.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 49.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -1.61% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.06 |
| Alpha | -11.73 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.17 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.349 |
| Beta | 0.386 |
| Beta Downside | 0.520 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 32.72% |
| Mean DD | 12.55% |
| Median DD | 11.84% |
Description: CF CF Industries Holdings January 03, 2026
CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF) manufactures and sells hydrogen-based nitrogen products-including anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, UAN, and ammonium nitrate-serving agricultural cooperatives, retailers, distributors, traders, and industrial users across North America, Europe, and other global markets. The firm operates through five segments (Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other) and also offers ancillary chemicals such as diesel-exhaust fluid, nitric acid, and aqua-ammonia.
Key operating metrics (FY 2023) show roughly 22 million tons of ammonia capacity, net income of $1.2 billion, and an EBITDA margin near 23 %, while total debt sits at about $9 billion (≈ 1.5× EBITDA). The companys earnings are highly sensitive to natural-gas prices-its primary input cost-and to global nitrogen fertilizer demand, which is driven by rising crop-yield targets and government fertilizer-subsidy programs in major agricultural economies.
For a deeper, data-driven look at CF Industries’ valuation scenarios and risk factors, you might explore its profile on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 9.0
| Net Income: 1.38b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 7.77 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 24.76% < 20% (prev 30.70%; Δ -5.94% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 2.63b > Net Income 1.38b |
| Net Debt (1.56b) to EBITDA (3.12b): 0.50 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.27 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (161.2m) vs 12m ago -9.74% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 39.76% > 18% (prev 0.35%; Δ 3941 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 48.04% > 50% (prev 43.22%; Δ 4.81% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 13.86 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 3.12b / Interest Expense TTM 161.0m) |
Altman Z'' (< 1.1 .. > 2.6) 3.44
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 2.98b - Total Current Liabilities 1.31b) / Total Assets 14.20b |
| B: 0.30 (Retained Earnings 4.20b / Total Assets 14.20b) |
| C: 0.16 (EBIT TTM 2.23b / Avg Total Assets 14.02b) |
| D: 0.61 (Book Value of Equity 3.97b / Total Liabilities 6.51b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.44 = A |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 76.07
| 1. Piotroski: 9.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield: 10.02% |
| 3. FCF Margin: 25.42% |
| 4. Debt/Equity: 0.70 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda: 0.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC: 16.99% |
| 7. RoE: 28.18% |
| 8. Revenue Trend: -71.96% |
| 9. EPS Trend: -66.13% |
What is the price of CF shares?
As of January 22, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 91.86 with a total of 2,053,274 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.01%, over one month by +18.64%, over three months by +10.95% and over the past year by +0.44%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.01%, over one month by +18.64%, over three months by +10.95% and over the past year by +0.44%.
Is CF a buy, sell or hold?
CF Industries Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.10.
Therefor, it is recommend to hold CF.
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 18
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CF price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 90.8 | -1.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 90.8 | -1.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 96.2 | 4.7% |
CF Fundamental Data Overview January 18, 2026
P/E Trailing = 10.4897
P/E Forward = 11.0865
P/S = 2.086
P/B = 2.7856
P/EG = 2.4195
Revenue TTM = 6.74b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.23b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.12b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.97b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 108.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.40b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.56b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 17.08b USD (14.05b + Debt 3.40b - CCE 366.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 13.86 (Ebit TTM 2.23b / Interest Expense TTM 161.0m)
EV/FCF = 9.98x (Enterprise Value 17.08b / FCF TTM 1.71b)
FCF Yield = 10.02% (FCF TTM 1.71b / Enterprise Value 17.08b)
FCF Margin = 25.42% (FCF TTM 1.71b / Revenue TTM 6.74b)
Net Margin = 20.47% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Revenue TTM 6.74b)
Gross Margin = 39.76% ((Revenue TTM 6.74b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.06b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.10% (prev 44.76%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.20 (Enterprise Value 17.08b / Total Assets 14.20b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.21% (Interest Expense 41.0m / Debt 3.40b)
Taxrate = 18.58% (105.0m / 565.0m)
NOPAT = 1.82b (EBIT 2.23b * (1 - 18.58%))
Current Ratio = 2.27 (Total Current Assets 2.98b / Total Current Liabilities 1.31b)
Debt / Equity = 0.70 (Debt 3.40b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.85b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.50 (Net Debt 1.56b / EBITDA 3.12b)
Debt / FCF = 0.91 (Net Debt 1.56b / FCF TTM 1.71b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.89b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.83% (Net Income 1.38b / Total Assets 14.20b)
RoE = 28.18% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Total Stockholder Equity 4.89b)
RoCE = 28.35% (EBIT 2.23b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.89b + L.T.Debt 2.97b))
RoIC = 23.09% (NOPAT 1.82b / Invested Capital 7.87b)
WACC = 6.10% (E(14.05b)/V(17.45b) * Re(7.34%) + D(3.40b)/V(17.45b) * Rd(1.21%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 7.34% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -8.04%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 83.54% ; FCFF base≈1.26b ; Y1≈1.07b ; Y5≈809.7m
Fair Price DCF = 138.5 (EV 23.16b - Net Debt 1.56b = Equity 21.60b / Shares 156.0m; r=6.10% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -18.69% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -66.13 | EPS CAGR: -54.94% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -71.96 | Revenue CAGR: -10.74% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.07 | Chg30d=-0.044 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.86 | Chg30d=-0.242 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-21.2% | Growth Revenue=-5.9%
P/E Forward = 11.0865
P/S = 2.086
P/B = 2.7856
P/EG = 2.4195
Revenue TTM = 6.74b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.23b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.12b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.97b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 108.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.40b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.56b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 17.08b USD (14.05b + Debt 3.40b - CCE 366.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 13.86 (Ebit TTM 2.23b / Interest Expense TTM 161.0m)
EV/FCF = 9.98x (Enterprise Value 17.08b / FCF TTM 1.71b)
FCF Yield = 10.02% (FCF TTM 1.71b / Enterprise Value 17.08b)
FCF Margin = 25.42% (FCF TTM 1.71b / Revenue TTM 6.74b)
Net Margin = 20.47% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Revenue TTM 6.74b)
Gross Margin = 39.76% ((Revenue TTM 6.74b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.06b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.10% (prev 44.76%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.20 (Enterprise Value 17.08b / Total Assets 14.20b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.21% (Interest Expense 41.0m / Debt 3.40b)
Taxrate = 18.58% (105.0m / 565.0m)
NOPAT = 1.82b (EBIT 2.23b * (1 - 18.58%))
Current Ratio = 2.27 (Total Current Assets 2.98b / Total Current Liabilities 1.31b)
Debt / Equity = 0.70 (Debt 3.40b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.85b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.50 (Net Debt 1.56b / EBITDA 3.12b)
Debt / FCF = 0.91 (Net Debt 1.56b / FCF TTM 1.71b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.89b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.83% (Net Income 1.38b / Total Assets 14.20b)
RoE = 28.18% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Total Stockholder Equity 4.89b)
RoCE = 28.35% (EBIT 2.23b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.89b + L.T.Debt 2.97b))
RoIC = 23.09% (NOPAT 1.82b / Invested Capital 7.87b)
WACC = 6.10% (E(14.05b)/V(17.45b) * Re(7.34%) + D(3.40b)/V(17.45b) * Rd(1.21%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 7.34% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -8.04%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 83.54% ; FCFF base≈1.26b ; Y1≈1.07b ; Y5≈809.7m
Fair Price DCF = 138.5 (EV 23.16b - Net Debt 1.56b = Equity 21.60b / Shares 156.0m; r=6.10% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -18.69% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -66.13 | EPS CAGR: -54.94% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -71.96 | Revenue CAGR: -10.74% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.07 | Chg30d=-0.044 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.86 | Chg30d=-0.242 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-21.2% | Growth Revenue=-5.9%
Additional Sources for CF Stock
News:
Wall Street Journal |
Benzinga |
Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle