CF Stock Analysis: CF Industries Holdings | NYSE
Agricultural Inputs | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 16.880m USD | 12M Return: 47.7% | US1252691001 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 312M
EPS Trend: 50.5%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 38.4%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
The companys product portfolio includes ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution (UAN), ammonium nitrate, diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, and nitric acid. CF Industries sells these products to cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, retailers, and industrial users.
As a major player in the GICS Materials sector under Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals, CF Industries benefits from the agricultural industrys consistent demand for nitrogen fertilizers, which are essential for crop yields. Ammonia production is heavily dependent on natural gas as a primary feedstock, making access to low-cost natural gas a significant competitive factor in the nitrogen fertilizer industry. The company trades on the NYSE under the ticker CF and has been publicly listed since 2005.
- North American gas costs sustain nitrogen margin advantage
- European ammonia supply cuts tighten global nitrogen prices
- Corn prices drive nitrogen fertilizer demand at spring planting
| Net Income: 2.10b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.35 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 38.51% < 20% (prev 28.63%; Δ 9.87% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.20 > 3% & CFO 2.98b > Net Income 2.10b |
| Net Debt (1.53b) to EBITDA (4.16b): 0.37 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.86 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (153.9m) vs 12m ago -5.64% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 42.54% > 18% (prev 38.65%; Δ 3.88% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 53.65% > 50% (prev 46.89%; Δ 6.76% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 19.15 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.27b / Interest Expense TTM 171.0m) |
| A: 0.20 (Total Current Assets 3.75b - Total Current Liabilities 772.0m) / Total Assets 15.1b |
| B: 0.32 (Retained Earnings 4.83b / Total Assets 15.1b) |
| C: 0.23 (EBIT TTM 3.27b / Avg Total Assets 14.4b) |
| D: 0.93 (Book Value of Equity 5.75b / Total Liabilities 6.18b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.84 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 718.0m/586.0m, Revenue 7.74b/6.45b) |
| GMI: 0.91 (GM 38.65% / 42.54%) |
| AQI: 1.05 (AQ_t 0.30 / AQ_t-1 0.29) |
| SGI: 1.20 (Revenue 7.74b / 6.45b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 2.10b - CFO 2.98b) / TA 15.1b) |
| Beneish M = -2.93 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 18, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 120.85 with a total of 1,725,032 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.35%, over one month by -9.69%, over three months by +0.04% and over the past year by +47.71%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 114.80 (which is 5% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
CF Industries Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.18. Therefore, it is recommended to hold CF.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 13
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 2
| Analysts Target Price | 127.7 | 5.7% |
P/E Trailing = 8.2745
P/E Forward = 12.21
P/S = 2.1812
P/B = 3.5233
P/EG = 0.603
Revenue TTM = 7.74b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.27b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.16b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.22b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 104.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.01b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 397.0m
Net Debt = 1.53b USD (calculated: Debt 4.01b - CCE 2.48b)
Enterprise Value = 18.4b USD (16.9b + Debt 4.01b - CCE 2.48b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 19.15 (Ebit TTM 3.27b / Interest Expense TTM 171.0m)
EV/FCF = 9.64x (Enterprise Value 18.4b / FCF TTM 1.91b)
FCF Yield = 10.37% (FCF TTM 1.91b / Enterprise Value 18.4b)
FCF Margin = 24.68% (FCF TTM 1.91b / Revenue TTM 7.74b)
Net Margin = 27.12% (Net Income TTM 2.10b / Revenue TTM 7.74b)
Gross Margin = 42.54% ((Revenue TTM 7.74b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.45b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.53% (prev 37.56%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.22 (Enterprise Value 18.4b / Total Assets 15.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.26% (Interest Expense 171.0m / Debt 4.01b)
Taxrate = 19.46% (604.0m / 3.10b)
NOPAT = 2.64b (EBIT 3.27b * (1 - 19.46%))
Current Ratio = 4.86 (Total Current Assets 3.75b / Total Current Liabilities 772.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.70 (Debt 4.01b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.75b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.37 (Net Debt 1.53b / EBITDA 4.16b)
Debt / FCF = 0.80 (Net Debt 1.53b / FCF TTM 1.91b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.19b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.55% (Net Income 2.10b / Total Assets 15.1b)
RoE = 40.41% (Net Income TTM 2.10b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.19b)
RoCE = 38.94% (EBIT 3.27b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.19b + L.T.Debt 3.22b))
RoIC = 18.78% (NOPAT 2.64b / Invested Capital 14.0b)
WACC = 4.92% (E(16.9b)/V(20.9b) * Re(5.27%) + D(4.01b)/V(20.9b) * Rd(4.26%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 5.27% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.70 | Cagr: -8.53%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.30% ; FCFF base≈1.86b ; Y1≈1.98b ; Y5≈2.34b
[DCF] Fair Price = 227.4 (EV 35.9b - Net Debt 1.53b = Equity 34.4b / Shares 151.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 6.88% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 50.54 | EPS CAGR: 14.11% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 38.39 | Revenue CAGR: 4.41% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.02 | Chg30d=+0.23% | Revisions=-38% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=15.31 | Chg30d=+1.63% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+70.7% | GrowthRev=+17.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=11.18 | Chg30d=+4.92% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-27.0% | GrowthRev=-11.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -38% (up=1, down=4)