CF Stock Analysis: CF Industries Holdings | NYSE
Agricultural Inputs | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 17.714m USD | 12M Return: 50.2% | US1252691001 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 261M
EPS Trend: 50.5%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 38.4%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a leading global manufacturer of nitrogen-based fertilizers, with operations spanning North America, Europe, and other international markets. The company produces ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution (UAN), ammonium nitrate, diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, and nitric acid, serving a diverse customer base that includes agricultural cooperatives, retailers, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users.
Headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, and founded in 1946, CF Industries is classified within the Materials sector under the Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals sub-industry. As a large-cap company, it plays a significant role in the global nitrogen fertilizer supply chain, which is essential for agricultural productivity and food security. The production of nitrogen fertilizers is energy-intensive, particularly ammonia, making natural gas pricing a critical factor influencing industry profitability.
- Natural gas prices determine ammonia production cost advantage
- Global nitrogen supply tightens on Russian export curbs
- Capital returns expand via ongoing share buybacks and dividend hikes
| Net Income: 2.10b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.35 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 38.51% < 20% (prev 28.63%; Δ 9.87% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.20 > 3% & CFO 2.98b > Net Income 2.10b |
| Net Debt (1.53b) to EBITDA (3.84b): 0.40 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.86 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (153.9m) vs 12m ago -5.64% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 42.54% > 18% (prev 38.65%; Δ 3.88% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 53.65% > 50% (prev 46.89%; Δ 6.76% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 17.25 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.95b / Interest Expense TTM 171.0m) |
| A: 0.20 (Total Current Assets 3.75b - Total Current Liabilities 772.0m) / Total Assets 15.1b |
| B: 0.32 (Retained Earnings 4.83b / Total Assets 15.1b) |
| C: 0.20 (EBIT TTM 2.95b / Avg Total Assets 14.4b) |
| D: 0.93 (Book Value of Equity 5.75b / Total Liabilities 6.18b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.69 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 718.0m/586.0m, Revenue 7.74b/6.45b) |
| GMI: 0.91 (GM 38.65% / 42.54%) |
| AQI: 1.05 (AQ_t 0.30 / AQ_t-1 0.29) |
| SGI: 1.20 (Revenue 7.74b / 6.45b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 2.10b - CFO 2.98b) / TA 15.1b) |
| Beneish M = -2.93 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of August 21, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 125.70 with a total of 3,315,324 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.94%, over one month by +2.25%, over three months by +2.47% and over the past year by +50.18%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 118.10 (which is 6% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
CF Industries Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.10. Therefore, it is recommended to hold CF.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 18
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 125.6 | -0.1% |
P/E Trailing = 8.9079
P/E Forward = 7.4239
P/S = 2.2889
P/B = 3.1984
P/EG = 2.1216
Revenue TTM = 7.74b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.95b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.84b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.22b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 104.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.01b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 397.0m
Net Debt = 1.53b USD (calculated: Debt 4.01b - CCE 2.48b)
Enterprise Value = 19.2b USD (17.7b + Debt 4.01b - CCE 2.48b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 17.25 (Ebit TTM 2.95b / Interest Expense TTM 171.0m)
EV/FCF = 10.08x (Enterprise Value 19.2b / FCF TTM 1.91b)
FCF Yield = 9.93% (FCF TTM 1.91b / Enterprise Value 19.2b)
FCF Margin = 24.68% (FCF TTM 1.91b / Revenue TTM 7.74b)
Net Margin = 27.12% (Net Income TTM 2.10b / Revenue TTM 7.74b)
Gross Margin = 42.54% ((Revenue TTM 7.74b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.45b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.53% (prev 37.56%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.27 (Enterprise Value 19.2b / Total Assets 15.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.26% (Interest Expense 171.0m / Debt 4.01b)
Taxrate = 19.46% (604.0m / 3.10b)
NOPAT = 2.38b (EBIT 2.95b * (1 - 19.46%))
Current Ratio = 4.86 (Total Current Assets 3.75b / Total Current Liabilities 772.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.70 (Debt 4.01b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.75b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.40 (Net Debt 1.53b / EBITDA 3.84b)
Debt / FCF = 0.80 (Net Debt 1.53b / FCF TTM 1.91b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.19b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.55% (Net Income 2.10b / Total Assets 15.1b)
RoE = 40.41% (Net Income TTM 2.10b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.19b)
RoCE = 35.08% (EBIT 2.95b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.19b + L.T.Debt 3.22b))
RoIC = 16.92% (NOPAT 2.38b / Invested Capital 14.0b)
WACC = 5.35% (E(17.7b)/V(21.7b) * Re(5.78%) + D(4.01b)/V(21.7b) * Rd(4.26%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 5.78% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.70 | Cagr: -8.53%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.30% ; FCFF base≈1.86b ; Y1≈1.98b ; Y5≈2.34b
[DCF] Fair Price = 227.4 (EV 35.9b - Net Debt 1.53b = Equity 34.4b / Shares 151.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 6.88% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 50.54 | EPS CAGR: 14.11% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 38.39 | Revenue CAGR: 4.41% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.07 | Chg30d=-30.92% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=15.09 | Chg30d=-15.15% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+68.2% | GrowthRev=+16.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=10.34 | Chg30d=-6.49% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-31.4% | GrowthRev=-11.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -44% (up=1, down=5)