CGAU Stock Analysis: Centerra Gold | NYSE
Gold | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.382m USD | 12M Return: 170.1% | CA1520061021 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 24.4M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 87.8%
Qual. Beats: 3
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Centerra Gold Inc. (NYSE: CGAU) is a Canadian-based mining company incorporated in 2002 and headquartered in Toronto. It engages in the operation, development, exploration, and acquisition of gold and copper properties, with a geographic footprint spanning North America, Turkey, and other international regions. In addition to its precious metals portfolio, Centerra maintains a molybdenum business unit that includes a metallurgical processing facility and two primary molybdenum properties.
The companys principal assets include the Mount Milligan gold-copper mine in British Columbia, the Öksüt gold mine in Türkiye, the Kemess project in British Columbia, the Goldfield District project in Nevada, the Thompson Creek Mine in Idaho, and a 75% interest in the Endako Mine in British Columbia. Centerra is classified within the Materials sector under the Diversified Metals & Mining sub-industry, reflecting its multi-commodity exposure across gold, copper, and molybdenum.
Its diversified commodity mix is notable within the gold mining industry, where peers often focus exclusively on precious metals; the inclusion of copper and molybdenum operations provides exposure to industrial and base metals demand cycles alongside traditional gold production.
- Gold and copper prices drive Mount Milligan revenue
- Turkish permit risk weighs on Öksüt gold mine outlook
- Molybdenum segment provides cash flow diversification
| Net Income: 639.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.01 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 38.18% < 20% (prev 56.63%; Δ -18.45% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 448.8m > Net Income 639.5m |
| Net Debt (-411.4m) to EBITDA (1.02b): -0.40 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.42 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (201.9m) vs 12m ago -4.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 35.97% > 18% (prev 31.14%; Δ 4.82% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 62.78% > 50% (prev 52.39%; Δ 10.39% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 52.21 > 6 (EBIT TTM 889.2m / Interest Expense TTM 17.0m) |
| A: 0.21 (Total Current Assets 1.11b - Total Current Liabilities 457.0m) / Total Assets 3.10b |
| B: 0.48 (Retained Earnings 1.48b / Total Assets 3.10b) |
| C: 0.33 (EBIT TTM 889.2m / Avg Total Assets 2.71b) |
| D: 2.34 (Book Value of Equity 2.17b / Total Liabilities 927.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 7.60 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.82 (Receivables 210.0m/182.6m, Revenue 1.70b/1.21b) |
| GMI: 0.87 (GM 31.14% / 35.97%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.08) |
| SGI: 1.40 (Revenue 1.70b / 1.21b) |
| TATA: 0.06 (NI 639.5m - CFO 448.8m) / TA 3.10b) |
| Beneish M = -3.03 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of August 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 19.81 with a total of 1,151,657 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.13%, over one month by +19.99%, over three months by +10.33% and over the past year by +170.06%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 18.60 (which is 6.1% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Centerra Gold has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold CGAU.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 23.3 | 17.4% |
P/E Trailing = 5.1763
P/E Forward = 9.5147
P/S = 2.1221
P/B = 1.5218
Revenue TTM = 1.70b USD
EBIT TTM = 889.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.02b USD
Long Term Debt = 36.9m USD (estimated: total debt 45.8m - short term 8.88m)
Short Term Debt = 8.88m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 45.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 45.8m already included)
Net Debt = -411.4m USD (calculated: Debt 45.8m - CCE 457.2m)
Enterprise Value = 2.97b USD (3.38b + Debt 45.8m - CCE 457.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 52.21 (Ebit TTM 889.2m / Interest Expense TTM 17.0m)
EV/FCF = 32.18x (Enterprise Value 2.97b / FCF TTM 92.3m)
FCF Yield = 3.11% (FCF TTM 92.3m / Enterprise Value 2.97b)
FCF Margin = 5.43% (FCF TTM 92.3m / Revenue TTM 1.70b)
Net Margin = 37.64% (Net Income TTM 639.5m / Revenue TTM 1.70b)
Gross Margin = 35.97% ((Revenue TTM 1.70b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.09b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 35.92% (prev 40.77%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.96 (Enterprise Value 2.97b / Total Assets 3.10b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 37.21% (Interest Expense 17.0m / Debt 45.8m)
Taxrate = 26.68% (232.7m / 872.2m)
NOPAT = 652.0m (EBIT 889.2m * (1 - 26.68%))
Current Ratio = 2.42 (Total Current Assets 1.11b / Total Current Liabilities 457.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 45.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.17b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.40 (Net Debt -411.4m / EBITDA 1.02b)
Debt / FCF = -4.46 (Net Debt -411.4m / FCF TTM 92.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.07b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 23.63% (Net Income 639.5m / Total Assets 3.10b)
RoE = 30.94% (Net Income TTM 639.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.07b)
RoCE = 42.27% (EBIT 889.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.07b + L.T.Debt 36.9m))
RoIC = 25.45% (NOPAT 652.0m / Invested Capital 2.56b)
WACC = 9.53% (E(3.38b)/V(3.43b) * Re(9.29%) + D(45.8m)/V(3.43b) * Rd(37.21%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 9.29% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -93.96 | Cagr: -3.54%
[DCF] Terminal Value 74.25% ; FCFF base≈83.0m ; Y1≈95.1m ; Y5≈140.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 10.85 (EV 1.74b - Net Debt -411.4m = Equity 2.16b / Shares 198.6m; r=9.53% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.21 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 87.78 | Revenue CAGR: 15.35% | SUE: 0.98 | # QB: 3
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.51 | Chg30d=-4.08% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.70 | Chg30d=-9.66% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+53.0% | GrowthRev=+15.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.98 | Chg30d=-3.50% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+16.9% | GrowthRev=+3.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -25% (up=3, down=6)