CGAU Stock Analysis: Centerra Gold | NYSE

Gold, Copper, Molybdenum

Total Rating 81

Safety 79

Buy Signal 0.33

Gold
Industry Rotation: -43.6

Market Cap: 4.26B
Avg Turnover: 26.7M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility53.3%

VaR 5^th Pctl9.26%

VaR vs Median5.44%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio1.39

Rel. Str. IBD91.8

Rel. Str. Peer Group97.2

Character TTM

Beta0.861

Beta Downside0.536

Hurst Exponent0.429

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD29.50%

CAGR/Max DD2.44

CAGR/Mean DD7.23

EPS (Earnings per Share)

Last SUE: 0.21
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 15.53%
Rev. Trend: 88.4%

Last SUE: 0.98
Qual. Beats: 3

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

Rs Leader

Idiosyncratic Leader

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan +5.1% 23

Feb -0.7% 5

Mar -0.9% 5

Apr +4.4% 9

May -0.4% 7

Jun +0.1% 2

Jul -0.4% 7

Aug +4.0% 8

Sep -1.1% 25

Oct +0.1% 5

Nov +5.1% 29

Dec -2.3% 15

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: CGAU Centerra Gold

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Headlines to Watch Out For

Gold prices rally boosts Mount Milligan and Öksüt revenue
Mount Milligan copper byproduct sales improve overall mine margins
Öksüt mine in Türkiye exposed to lira depreciation and permit risk

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 7.5

Net Income: 639.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.01 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 38.18% < 20% (prev 56.63%; Δ -18.45% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 448.8m > Net Income 639.5m
Net Debt (-411.4m) to EBITDA (1.02b): -0.40 < 3
Current Ratio: 2.42 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (201.9m) vs 12m ago -4.04% < -2%
Gross Margin: 35.97% > 18% (prev 28.91%; Δ 7.06% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 62.78% > 50% (prev 52.39%; Δ 10.39% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 52.21 > 6 (EBIT TTM 889.2m / Interest Expense TTM 17.0m)

Altman Z'' 7.60

A: 0.21 (Total Current Assets 1.11b - Total Current Liabilities 457.0m) / Total Assets 3.10b
B: 0.48 (Retained Earnings 1.48b / Total Assets 3.10b)
C: 0.33 (EBIT TTM 889.2m / Avg Total Assets 2.71b)
D: 2.34 (Book Value of Equity 2.17b / Total Liabilities 927.7m)
Altman-Z'' = 7.60 = AAA

Beneish M -3.09

DSRI: 0.82 (Receivables 210.0m/182.6m, Revenue 1.70b/1.21b)
GMI: 0.80 (GM 28.91% / 35.97%)
AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.08)
SGI: 1.40 (Revenue 1.70b / 1.21b)
TATA: 0.06 (NI 639.5m - CFO 448.8m) / TA 3.10b)
Beneish M = -3.09 (Cap -4..+1) = AA

What is the price of CGAU shares?

As of October 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 21.43 with a total of 886,967 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.01%, over one month by -3.73%, over three months by +29.56% and over the past year by +91.47%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 20.20 (which is 5.7% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).

Is CGAU a buy, sell or hold?

Centerra Gold has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold CGAU.

StrongBuy: 3
Buy: 5
Hold: 2
Sell: 2
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the CGAU price?

Analysts Target Price	17.5	-18.3%

Centerra Gold (CGAU) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 30 September 2026

Market Cap USD = 4.26b (4.26b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 7.2053
P/E Forward = 12.6103
P/S = 2.4687
P/B = 2.0406
Revenue TTM = 1.70b USD
EBIT TTM = 889.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.02b USD
Long Term Debt = 36.9m USD (estimated: total debt 45.8m - short term 8.88m)
Short Term Debt = 8.88m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 45.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 45.8m already included)
Net Debt = -411.4m USD (calculated: Debt 45.8m - CCE 457.2m)
Enterprise Value = 3.84b USD (4.26b + Debt 45.8m - CCE 457.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 52.21 (Ebit TTM 889.2m / Interest Expense TTM 17.0m)
EV/FCF = 41.65x (Enterprise Value 3.84b / FCF TTM 92.3m)
FCF Yield = 2.40% (FCF TTM 92.3m / Enterprise Value 3.84b)
FCF Margin = 5.43% (FCF TTM 92.3m / Revenue TTM 1.70b)
Net Margin = 37.64% (Net Income TTM 639.5m / Revenue TTM 1.70b)
Gross Margin = 35.97% ((Revenue TTM 1.70b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.09b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 35.92% (prev 40.77%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.24 (Enterprise Value 3.84b / Total Assets 3.10b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 37.21% (Interest Expense 17.0m / Debt 45.8m)
Taxrate = 26.68% (232.7m / 872.2m)
NOPAT = 652.0m (EBIT 889.2m * (1 - 26.68%))
Current Ratio = 2.42 (Total Current Assets 1.11b / Total Current Liabilities 457.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 45.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.17b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.40 (Net Debt -411.4m / EBITDA 1.02b)
Debt / FCF = -4.46 (Net Debt -411.4m / FCF TTM 92.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.07b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 23.63% (Net Income 639.5m / Total Assets 3.10b)
RoE = 30.94% (Net Income TTM 639.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.07b)
RoCE = 42.27% (EBIT 889.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.07b + L.T.Debt 36.9m))
RoIC = 25.45% (NOPAT 652.0m / Invested Capital 2.56b)
WACC = 9.20% (E(4.26b)/V(4.30b) * Re(9.01%) + D(45.8m)/V(4.30b) * Rd(37.21%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 9.01% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -93.96 | Cagr: -3.54%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.25% ; FCFF base≈83.0m ; Y1≈95.1m ; Y5≈140.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 11.46 (EV 1.83b - Net Debt -411.4m = Equity 2.24b / Shares 195.6m; r=9.20% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.21 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 88.36 | Revenue CAGR: 15.53% | SUE: 0.98 | # QB: 3
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.40 | Chg30d=+1.92% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.62 | Chg30d=-0.78% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+46.1% | GrowthRev=+31.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.90 | Chg30d=-1.55% | Revisions=+15% | GrowthEPS=+17.2% | GrowthRev=+6.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +4% (up=12, down=11)