CGAU Stock Analysis: Centerra Gold | NYSE
Gold | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.279m USD | 12M Return: 130.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 26.8M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 85.4%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Centerra Gold Inc. (NYSE: CGAU) is a Canadian-based mining company incorporated in 2002 and headquartered in Toronto. It engages in the operation, development, exploration, and acquisition of gold and copper properties, with a geographic footprint spanning North America, Turkey, and other international regions. In addition to its precious metals portfolio, Centerra maintains a molybdenum business unit that includes a metallurgical processing facility and two primary molybdenum properties.
The companys principal assets include the Mount Milligan gold-copper mine in British Columbia, the Öksüt gold mine in Türkiye, the Kemess project in British Columbia, the Goldfield District project in Nevada, the Thompson Creek Mine in Idaho, and a 75% interest in the Endako Mine in British Columbia. Centerra is classified within the Materials sector under the Diversified Metals & Mining sub-industry, reflecting its multi-commodity exposure across gold, copper, and molybdenum.
Its diversified commodity mix is notable within the gold mining industry, where peers often focus exclusively on precious metals; the inclusion of copper and molybdenum operations provides exposure to industrial and base metals demand cycles alongside traditional gold production.
- Gold and copper prices drive Mount Milligan revenue
- Turkish permit risk weighs on Öksüt gold mine outlook
- Molybdenum segment provides cash flow diversification
| Net Income: 635.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.01 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 42.98% < 20% (prev 57.34%; Δ -14.36% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 407.9m > Net Income 635.9m |
| Net Debt (-510.0m) to EBITDA (949.0m): -0.54 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.41 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (201.5m) vs 12m ago -5.72% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.93% > 18% (prev 31.70%; Δ 3.23% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 57.26% > 50% (prev 52.31%; Δ 4.95% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 51.90 > 6 (EBIT TTM 828.3m / Interest Expense TTM 16.0m) |
| A: 0.22 (Total Current Assets 1.14b - Total Current Liabilities 472.3m) / Total Assets 3.09b |
| B: 0.46 (Retained Earnings 1.43b / Total Assets 3.09b) |
| C: 0.31 (EBIT TTM 828.3m / Avg Total Assets 2.70b) |
| D: 2.14 (Book Value of Equity 2.10b / Total Liabilities 981.3m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 7.23 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.67 (Receivables 134.7m/157.7m, Revenue 1.54b/1.21b) |
| GMI: 0.91 (GM 31.70% / 34.93%) |
| AQI: 1.31 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.07) |
| SGI: 1.28 (Revenue 1.54b / 1.21b) |
| TATA: 0.07 (NI 635.9m - CFO 407.9m) / TA 3.09b) |
| Beneish M = -2.99 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 16.21 with a total of 1,273,531 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.31%, over one month by +5.26%, over three months by -15.36% and over the past year by +130.56%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 14.50 (which is 10.5% or 2 ATR below the current price).
Centerra Gold has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold CGAU.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 17.8 | 9.5% |
P/E Trailing = 5.3258
P/E Forward = 8.3126
P/S = 2.0887
P/B = 1.5701
Revenue TTM = 1.54b USD
EBIT TTM = 828.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 949.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 35.6m USD (estimated: total debt 43.9m - short term 8.23m)
Short Term Debt = 8.23m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 43.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 43.7m already included)
Net Debt = -510.0m USD (calculated: Debt 43.9m - CCE 553.9m)
Enterprise Value = 2.77b USD (3.28b + Debt 43.9m - CCE 553.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 51.90 (Ebit TTM 828.3m / Interest Expense TTM 16.0m)
EV/FCF = 30.87x (Enterprise Value 2.77b / FCF TTM 89.7m)
FCF Yield = 3.24% (FCF TTM 89.7m / Enterprise Value 2.77b)
FCF Margin = 5.81% (FCF TTM 89.7m / Revenue TTM 1.54b)
Net Margin = 41.17% (Net Income TTM 635.9m / Revenue TTM 1.54b)
Gross Margin = 34.93% ((Revenue TTM 1.54b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.01b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 40.77% (prev 31.35%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.90 (Enterprise Value 2.77b / Total Assets 3.09b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 36.37% (Interest Expense 16.0m / Debt 43.9m)
Taxrate = 21.71% (176.4m / 812.3m)
NOPAT = 648.4m (EBIT 828.3m * (1 - 21.71%))
Current Ratio = 2.41 (Total Current Assets 1.14b / Total Current Liabilities 472.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 43.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.10b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.54 (Net Debt -510.0m / EBITDA 949.0m)
Debt / FCF = -5.69 (Net Debt -510.0m / FCF TTM 89.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.95b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 23.58% (Net Income 635.9m / Total Assets 3.09b)
RoE = 32.60% (Net Income TTM 635.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.95b)
RoCE = 41.70% (EBIT 828.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.95b + L.T.Debt 35.6m))
RoIC = 25.49% (NOPAT 648.4m / Invested Capital 2.54b)
WACC = 9.77% (E(3.28b)/V(3.32b) * Re(9.52%) + D(43.9m)/V(3.32b) * Rd(36.37%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 9.52% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -80.90 | Cagr: -2.94%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.51% ; FCFF base≈80.8m ; Y1≈92.6m ; Y5≈136.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 10.83 (EV 1.64b - Net Debt -510.0m = Equity 2.15b / Shares 198.6m; r=9.77% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.10 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 85.42 | Revenue CAGR: 17.27% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.48 | Chg30d=-6.16% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.53 | Chg30d=-0.43% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.87 | Chg30d=-3.20% | Revisions=-7% | GrowthEPS=+68.3% | GrowthRev=+23.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.05 | Chg30d=-3.03% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+10.0% | GrowthRev=+7.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -3% (up=13, down=14)