CMC Stock Analysis: Commercial Metals | NYSE
Metal Fabrication | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 6.651m USD | 12M Return: 22.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 99.0M
EPS Trend: -43.0%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: -20.0%
Qual. Beats: 4
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Commercial Metals Company (NYSE: CMC) is a global steel manufacturer, recycler, and fabricator headquartered in Irving, Texas, operating across the United States, Poland, China, and other international markets. Founded in 1915, the company runs three reporting segments: North America Steel Group, Europe Steel Group, and Emerging Businesses Group.
CMCs business model spans the full steel value chain, from processing ferrous and nonferrous scrap metals to producing finished long steel products such as reinforcing bar (rebar), merchant bar, light structural sections, wire rod, and semi-finished billets. It also fabricates rebar and other construction-related products for commercial, infrastructure, and institutional projects, and supplies specialized products like strength bars for truck trailers, bar steels for the energy market, and armor plates for military vehicles.
As a major producer using electric arc furnace (EAF) mini-mill technology, CMC relies heavily on recycled scrap metal as its primary raw material input, which differentiates its cost structure and environmental profile from traditional blast furnace integrated steelmakers. The companys revenue is closely tied to cyclical end-markets, including non-residential construction, infrastructure, energy, and industrial manufacturing, making it a leveraged play on broader economic and construction activity within the Materials sector.
- US infrastructure bill drives rebar demand and pricing power
- Hot-rolled coil prices swing North America Steel segment margins
- European steel demand weakness pressures Poland operations profitability
| Net Income: 595.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.25 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 22.30% < 20% (prev 28.43%; Δ -6.13% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 918.2m > Net Income 595.1m |
| Net Debt (2.87b) to EBITDA (1.15b): 2.50 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.33 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (112.0m) vs 12m ago -1.39% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 18.56% > 18% (prev 14.98%; Δ 3.59% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 105.4% > 50% (prev 109.8%; Δ -4.39% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.71 > 6 (EBIT TTM 792.9m / Interest Expense TTM 118.1m) |
| A: 0.20 (Total Current Assets 3.46b - Total Current Liabilities 1.49b) / Total Assets 9.80b |
| B: 0.50 (Retained Earnings 4.89b / Total Assets 9.80b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 792.9m / Avg Total Assets 8.40b) |
| D: 0.86 (Book Value of Equity 4.53b / Total Liabilities 5.26b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.49 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 1.39b/1.16b, Revenue 8.85b/7.68b) |
| GMI: 0.81 (GM 14.98% / 18.56%) |
| AQI: 2.27 (AQ_t 0.31 / AQ_t-1 0.14) |
| SGI: 1.15 (Revenue 8.85b / 7.68b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 595.1m - CFO 918.2m) / TA 9.80b) |
| Beneish M = -2.31 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of July 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 62.64 with a total of 1,095,530 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.80%, over one month by -19.18%, over three months by -5.14% and over the past year by +22.30%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 58.60 (which is 6.4% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Commercial Metals has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.45. Therefore, it is recommended to hold CMC.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 80.4 | 28.3% |
P/E Trailing = 11.7422
P/E Forward = 10.7643
P/S = 0.7515
P/B = 1.5154
P/EG = 12.2526
Revenue TTM = 8.85b USD
EBIT TTM = 792.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.15b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.31b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 88.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.43b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 28.3m
Net Debt = 2.87b USD (calculated: Debt 3.43b - CCE 559.8m)
Enterprise Value = 9.52b USD (6.65b + Debt 3.43b - CCE 559.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.71 (Ebit TTM 792.9m / Interest Expense TTM 118.1m)
EV/FCF = 23.50x (Enterprise Value 9.52b / FCF TTM 405.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.25% (FCF TTM 405.0m / Enterprise Value 9.52b)
FCF Margin = 4.58% (FCF TTM 405.0m / Revenue TTM 8.85b)
Net Margin = 6.72% (Net Income TTM 595.1m / Revenue TTM 8.85b)
Gross Margin = 18.56% ((Revenue TTM 8.85b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.21b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 18.33% (prev 18.19%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.97 (Enterprise Value 9.52b / Total Assets 9.80b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.45% (Interest Expense 118.1m / Debt 3.43b)
Taxrate = 11.80% (79.6m / 674.7m)
NOPAT = 699.3m (EBIT 792.9m * (1 - 11.80%))
Current Ratio = 2.33 (Total Current Assets 3.46b / Total Current Liabilities 1.49b)
Debt / Equity = 0.76 (Debt 3.43b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.53b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.50 (Net Debt 2.87b / EBITDA 1.15b)
Debt / FCF = 7.08 (Net Debt 2.87b / FCF TTM 405.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.36b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.09% (Net Income 595.1m / Total Assets 9.80b)
RoE = 13.65% (Net Income TTM 595.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.36b)
RoCE = 10.33% (EBIT 792.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 4.36b + L.T.Debt 3.31b))
RoIC = 8.79% (NOPAT 699.3m / Invested Capital 7.95b)
WACC = 8.48% (E(6.65b)/V(10.1b) * Re(11.28%) + D(3.43b)/V(10.1b) * Rd(3.45%) * (1-Tc(0.12)))
Discount Rate = 11.28% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.56 | Cagr: -2.12%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.96% ; FCFF base≈393.5m ; Y1≈420.2m ; Y5≈503.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 42.43 (EV 7.56b - Net Debt 2.87b = Equity 4.69b / Shares 110.6m; r=8.48% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 7.63% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -43.00 | EPS CAGR: -14.99% | SUE: 0.89 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -19.95 | Revenue CAGR: -1.11% | SUE: 1.89 | # QB: 4
EPS current Quarter (2026-11-30): EPS=1.65 | Chg30d=+6.19% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-08-31): EPS=6.36 | Chg30d=-0.28% | Revisions=-8% | GrowthEPS=+103.2% | GrowthRev=+19.2%
EPS next Year (2027-08-31): EPS=7.10 | Chg30d=+2.50% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+11.6% | GrowthRev=+7.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +5% (up=10, down=9)