Overview Dividends

(CMG) Chipotle Mexican Grill - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US1696561059

Burrito, Taco, Quesadilla, Bowl, Salad

CMG EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3Y CAGR): 22.55%
EPS Trend (3Y Correlation): 77.6%

CMG Revenue

Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR): 12.35%
Revenue Trend (3Y Correlation): 93.5%

Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility	39.8%
Value at Risk 5%th	57.8%
Relative Tail Risk	-11.71%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-1.57
Alpha	-60.76

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.592
Beta	0.899
Beta Downside	0.968

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	56.51%
Mean DD	13.92%
Median DD	12.34%

Description: CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill September 26, 2025

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) operates a fast-casual restaurant chain that serves a menu of burritos, bowls, tacos, salads and related items, with a growing emphasis on “lifestyle” bowls and kid-focused meals. The brand also runs a digital ordering ecosystem-including an app and website-that powers delivery and curb-side pickup across its footprint.

Founded in 1993 and headquartered in Newport Beach, California, Chipotle now runs more than 3,000 restaurants in the United States and select international markets (Canada, France, Germany, Dubai, and the United Kingdom). The company’s expansion strategy continues to prioritize same-store sales growth (comps) and incremental unit openings, while leveraging its digital platform to capture a higher share of the total ticket.

Key performance indicators from the most recent quarter show comparable restaurant sales up roughly 13% year-over-year, digital sales representing about 65% of total revenue, and an average ticket size near $10.5. Labor and commodity costs remain material drivers, with pork and avocados tracking broader food-price inflation, while the fast-casual sector benefits from consumer preference for higher-quality, “food-with-integrity” concepts.

For a deeper quantitative breakdown of CMG’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform offers a useful toolkit for further research.

CMG Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	43,619m
Sub-Industry	Restaurants
IPO / Inception	2006-01-26
Return 12m vs S&P 500	-54.0%
Analyst Rating	4.29 of 5

CMG Dividends

Currently no dividends paid

CMG Growth Ratios

CAGR 3y	1.67%
CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio	0.03
CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio	0.12
Current Volume	18542k
Average Volume	30048.4k

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5

Net Income (1.54b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 707.2m TTM)

FCFTA 0.17 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 3.06pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 5.29% (prev 5.85%; Δ -0.56pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.24 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.21b > Net Income 1.54b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (4.28b) to EBITDA (2.35b) ratio: 1.82 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 1.54 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (1.34b) change vs 12m ago -2.55% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 25.72% (prev 26.87%; Δ -1.15pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 128.9% (prev 121.9%; Δ 6.97pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio -112.2 (EBITDA TTM 2.35b / Interest Expense TTM -17.8m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 2.45

(A) 0.07 = (Total Current Assets 1.77b - Total Current Liabilities 1.15b) / Total Assets 9.28b

(B) 0.11 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 1.04b / Total Assets 9.28b

(D) 0.17 = Book Value of Equity 1.04b / Total Liabilities 6.06b

Total Rating: 2.45 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 85.13

1. Piotroski 7.50pt = 2.50

2. FCF Yield 3.28% = 1.64

3. FCF Margin 13.35% = 3.34

4. Debt/Equity 1.55 = 1.41

5. Debt/Ebitda 1.82 = 0.35

6. ROIC - WACC (= 34.77)% = 12.50

7. RoE 44.23% = 2.50

8. Rev. Trend 93.54% = 7.02

9. EPS Trend 77.59% = 3.88

What is the price of CMG shares?

As of November 15, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 31.57 with a total of 18,542,000 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.20%, over one month by -25.01%, over three months by -26.87% and over the past year by -47.30%.

Is Chipotle Mexican Grill a good stock to buy?

Yes, based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) is currently (November 2025) a good stock to buy. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 85.13 and therefor a positive outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of CMG is around 23.61 USD . This means that CMG is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -25.21%.

Is CMG a buy, sell or hold?

Chipotle Mexican Grill has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.29. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CMG.

Strong Buy: 20
Buy: 4
Hold: 10
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the CMG price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	46.2	46.5%
Analysts Target Price	46.2	46.5%
ValueRay Target Price	26.3	-16.7%

CMG Fundamental Data Overview November 01, 2025

Market Cap USD = 43.62b (43.62b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 28.7876
P/E Forward = 28.49
P/S = 3.7676
P/B = 15.3046
P/EG = 1.732
Beta = 0.994
Revenue TTM = 11.79b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.00b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.35b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.54b USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 293.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.98b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4.28b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 47.90b USD (43.62b + Debt 4.98b - CCE 698.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -112.2 (Ebit TTM 2.00b / Interest Expense TTM -17.8m)
FCF Yield = 3.28% (FCF TTM 1.57b / Enterprise Value 47.90b)
FCF Margin = 13.35% (FCF TTM 1.57b / Revenue TTM 11.79b)
Net Margin = 13.04% (Net Income TTM 1.54b / Revenue TTM 11.79b)
Gross Margin = 25.72% ((Revenue TTM 11.79b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.76b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.49% (prev 27.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.16 (Enterprise Value 47.90b / Total Assets 9.28b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.18% (Interest Expense 8.95m / Debt 4.98b)
Taxrate = 23.11% (114.9m / 497.0m)
NOPAT = 1.54b (EBIT 2.00b * (1 - 23.11%))
Current Ratio = 1.54 (Total Current Assets 1.77b / Total Current Liabilities 1.15b)
Debt / Equity = 1.55 (Debt 4.98b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.22b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.82 (Net Debt 4.28b / EBITDA 2.35b)
Debt / FCF = 2.72 (Net Debt 4.28b / FCF TTM 1.57b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.47b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 16.55% (Net Income 1.54b / Total Assets 9.28b)
RoE = 44.23% (Net Income TTM 1.54b / Total Stockholder Equity 3.47b)
RoCE = 24.92% (EBIT 2.00b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.47b + L.T.Debt 4.54b))
RoIC = 43.16% (NOPAT 1.54b / Invested Capital 3.56b)
WACC = 8.39% (E(43.62b)/V(48.60b) * Re(9.33%) + D(4.98b)/V(48.60b) * Rd(0.18%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 9.33% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.51%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.17% ; FCFE base≈1.44b ; Y1≈1.76b ; Y5≈2.91b
Fair Price DCF = 29.31 (DCF Value 39.31b / Shares Outstanding 1.34b; 5y FCF grow 23.27% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 77.59 | EPS CAGR: 22.55% | SUE: -0.89 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 93.54 | Revenue CAGR: 12.35% | SUE: -0.49 | # QB: 0

Additional Sources for CMG Stock

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