(CMG) Chipotle Mexican Grill - Ratings and Ratios
Exchange: NYSE •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US1696561059
Burritos, Bowls, Tacos, Salads
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 41.8% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 57.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -16.22% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.45 |
| Alpha | -57.67 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.13 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.596 |
| Beta | 0.897 |
| Beta Downside | 0.942 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 56.51% |
| Mean DD | 14.88% |
| Median DD | 12.64% |
Description: CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill December 02, 2025
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) operates a chain of fast-casual restaurants serving a menu of burritos, bowls, tacos, salads and related items, with additional delivery and digital ordering via its app and website. The brand is present in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Dubai, and the United Kingdom, and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.
Key performance indicators to watch include same-store sales (comps) which have been growing ~12% YoY in 2023, digital sales now representing roughly 55% of total revenue, and average ticket size hovering around $12.5. Primary economic drivers are discretionary consumer spending trends, commodity price volatility (especially avocados and meat), and labor cost inflation, while sector-wide pressures such as rising rent and competition from other fast-casual concepts also shape results.
For a deeper, data-driven valuation framework, consider exploring the CMG analysis on ValueRay to complement your own modeling.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income (1.54b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 707.2m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.17 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 3.06pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 5.29% (prev 5.85%; Δ -0.56pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.24 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.21b > Net Income 1.54b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (4.28b) to EBITDA (2.35b) ratio: 1.82 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.54 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (1.34b) change vs 12m ago -2.55% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 25.72% (prev 26.87%; Δ -1.15pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 128.9% (prev 121.9%; Δ 6.97pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -112.2 (EBITDA TTM 2.35b / Interest Expense TTM -17.8m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.45
| (A) 0.07 = (Total Current Assets 1.77b - Total Current Liabilities 1.15b) / Total Assets 9.28b |
| (B) 0.11 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 1.04b / Total Assets 9.28b |
| (C) 0.22 = EBIT TTM 2.00b / Avg Total Assets 9.15b |
| (D) 0.17 = Book Value of Equity 1.04b / Total Liabilities 6.06b |
| Total Rating: 2.45 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 85.82
| 1. Piotroski 7.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.18% |
| 3. FCF Margin 13.35% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.55 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.82 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 35.79)% |
| 7. RoE 44.23% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 96.88% |
| 9. EPS Trend 87.33% |
What is the price of CMG shares?
As of December 14, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 36.14 with a total of 27,991,588 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.48%, over one month by +15.39%, over three months by -6.45% and over the past year by -45.37%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.48%, over one month by +15.39%, over three months by -6.45% and over the past year by -45.37%.
Is CMG a buy, sell or hold?
Chipotle Mexican Grill has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.29.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy CMG.
- Strong Buy: 20
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CMG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 43.2 | 19.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 43.2 | 19.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 32.9 | -8.9% |
CMG Fundamental Data Overview December 11, 2025
Market Cap USD = 45.23b (45.23b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 29.8496
P/E Forward = 27.8552
P/S = 3.837
P/B = 13.7939
P/EG = 1.6951
Beta = 0.991
Revenue TTM = 11.79b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.00b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.35b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.98b USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 293.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.98b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4.28b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 49.51b USD (45.23b + Debt 4.98b - CCE 698.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -112.2 (Ebit TTM 2.00b / Interest Expense TTM -17.8m)
FCF Yield = 3.18% (FCF TTM 1.57b / Enterprise Value 49.51b)
FCF Margin = 13.35% (FCF TTM 1.57b / Revenue TTM 11.79b)
Net Margin = 13.04% (Net Income TTM 1.54b / Revenue TTM 11.79b)
Gross Margin = 25.72% ((Revenue TTM 11.79b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.76b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.49% (prev 27.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.33 (Enterprise Value 49.51b / Total Assets 9.28b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.18% (Interest Expense 8.95m / Debt 4.98b)
Taxrate = 23.11% (114.9m / 497.0m)
NOPAT = 1.54b (EBIT 2.00b * (1 - 23.11%))
Current Ratio = 1.54 (Total Current Assets 1.77b / Total Current Liabilities 1.15b)
Debt / Equity = 1.55 (Debt 4.98b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.22b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.82 (Net Debt 4.28b / EBITDA 2.35b)
Debt / FCF = 2.72 (Net Debt 4.28b / FCF TTM 1.57b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.47b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 16.55% (Net Income 1.54b / Total Assets 9.28b)
RoE = 44.23% (Net Income TTM 1.54b / Total Stockholder Equity 3.47b)
RoCE = 23.62% (EBIT 2.00b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.47b + L.T.Debt 4.98b))
RoIC = 44.20% (NOPAT 1.54b / Invested Capital 3.47b)
WACC = 8.41% (E(45.23b)/V(50.21b) * Re(9.32%) + D(4.98b)/V(50.21b) * Rd(0.18%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 9.32% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.51%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.20% ; FCFE base≈1.44b ; Y1≈1.76b ; Y5≈2.91b
Fair Price DCF = 29.77 (DCF Value 39.37b / Shares Outstanding 1.32b; 5y FCF grow 23.27% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 87.33 | EPS CAGR: 29.00% | SUE: -0.89 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.88 | Revenue CAGR: 12.05% | SUE: -0.49 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.27 | Chg30d=-0.002 | Revisions Net=-22 | Analysts=28
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.22 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=-33 | Growth EPS=+5.5% | Growth Revenue=+9.8%
P/E Trailing = 29.8496
P/E Forward = 27.8552
P/S = 3.837
P/B = 13.7939
P/EG = 1.6951
Beta = 0.991
Revenue TTM = 11.79b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.00b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.35b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.98b USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 293.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.98b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4.28b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 49.51b USD (45.23b + Debt 4.98b - CCE 698.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -112.2 (Ebit TTM 2.00b / Interest Expense TTM -17.8m)
FCF Yield = 3.18% (FCF TTM 1.57b / Enterprise Value 49.51b)
FCF Margin = 13.35% (FCF TTM 1.57b / Revenue TTM 11.79b)
Net Margin = 13.04% (Net Income TTM 1.54b / Revenue TTM 11.79b)
Gross Margin = 25.72% ((Revenue TTM 11.79b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.76b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.49% (prev 27.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.33 (Enterprise Value 49.51b / Total Assets 9.28b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.18% (Interest Expense 8.95m / Debt 4.98b)
Taxrate = 23.11% (114.9m / 497.0m)
NOPAT = 1.54b (EBIT 2.00b * (1 - 23.11%))
Current Ratio = 1.54 (Total Current Assets 1.77b / Total Current Liabilities 1.15b)
Debt / Equity = 1.55 (Debt 4.98b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.22b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.82 (Net Debt 4.28b / EBITDA 2.35b)
Debt / FCF = 2.72 (Net Debt 4.28b / FCF TTM 1.57b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.47b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 16.55% (Net Income 1.54b / Total Assets 9.28b)
RoE = 44.23% (Net Income TTM 1.54b / Total Stockholder Equity 3.47b)
RoCE = 23.62% (EBIT 2.00b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.47b + L.T.Debt 4.98b))
RoIC = 44.20% (NOPAT 1.54b / Invested Capital 3.47b)
WACC = 8.41% (E(45.23b)/V(50.21b) * Re(9.32%) + D(4.98b)/V(50.21b) * Rd(0.18%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 9.32% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.51%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.20% ; FCFE base≈1.44b ; Y1≈1.76b ; Y5≈2.91b
Fair Price DCF = 29.77 (DCF Value 39.37b / Shares Outstanding 1.32b; 5y FCF grow 23.27% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 87.33 | EPS CAGR: 29.00% | SUE: -0.89 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.88 | Revenue CAGR: 12.05% | SUE: -0.49 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.27 | Chg30d=-0.002 | Revisions Net=-22 | Analysts=28
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.22 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=-33 | Growth EPS=+5.5% | Growth Revenue=+9.8%
Additional Sources for CMG Stock
News:
Wall Street Journal |
Benzinga |
Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle