Overview Dividends

(CMG) Chipotle Mexican Grill - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US1696561059

Burrito, Taco, Quesadilla, Bowl, Salad

CMG EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3Y CAGR): -52.15%
EPS Trend (3Y Correlation): -2.3%

CMG Revenue

Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR): 12.42%
Revenue Trend (3Y Correlation): 95.0%

Description: CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) operates a fast-casual restaurant chain that serves a menu of burritos, bowls, tacos, salads and related items, with a growing emphasis on “lifestyle” bowls and kid-focused meals. The brand also runs a digital ordering ecosystem-including an app and website-that powers delivery and curb-side pickup across its footprint.

Founded in 1993 and headquartered in Newport Beach, California, Chipotle now runs more than 3,000 restaurants in the United States and select international markets (Canada, France, Germany, Dubai, and the United Kingdom). The company’s expansion strategy continues to prioritize same-store sales growth (comps) and incremental unit openings, while leveraging its digital platform to capture a higher share of the total ticket.

Key performance indicators from the most recent quarter show comparable restaurant sales up roughly 13% year-over-year, digital sales representing about 65% of total revenue, and an average ticket size near $10.5. Labor and commodity costs remain material drivers, with pork and avocados tracking broader food-price inflation, while the fast-casual sector benefits from consumer preference for higher-quality, “food-with-integrity” concepts.

For a deeper quantitative breakdown of CMG’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform offers a useful toolkit for further research.

CMG Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	55,995m
Sub-Industry	Restaurants
IPO / Inception	2006-01-26

CMG Stock Ratings

Growth Rating	0.46%
Fundamental	82.2%
Dividend Rating	-
Return 12m vs S&P 500	-38.1%
Analyst Rating	4.29 of 5

CMG Dividends

Currently no dividends paid

CMG Growth Ratios

Growth Correlation 3m	-79.3%
Growth Correlation 12m	-84.9%
Growth Correlation 5y	81.8%
CAGR 5y	10.99%
CAGR/Max DD 3y (Calmar Ratio)	0.25
CAGR/Mean DD 3y (Pain Ratio)	0.87
Sharpe Ratio 12m	-1.45
Alpha	-44.10
Beta	0.994
Volatility	32.41%
Current Volume	18176.6k
Average Volume 20d	19388.9k
Stop Loss	40.8 (-3.1%)
Signal	1.05

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.5

Net Income (1.54b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 694.7m TTM)

FCFTA 0.16 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.22pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 6.36% (prev 6.97%; Δ -0.60pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.23 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.09b > Net Income 1.54b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (3.94b) to EBITDA (2.35b) ratio: 1.68 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 1.65 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (1.35b) change vs 12m ago -2.26% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 37.34% (prev 27.10%; Δ 10.24pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 127.3% (prev 119.5%; Δ 7.76pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio -104.5 (EBITDA TTM 2.35b / Interest Expense TTM -19.1m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 2.73

(A) 0.08 = (Total Current Assets 1.87b - Total Current Liabilities 1.13b) / Total Assets 9.27b

(B) 0.15 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 1.37b / Total Assets 9.27b

(D) 0.24 = Book Value of Equity 1.37b / Total Liabilities 5.74b

Total Rating: 2.73 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 82.17

1. Piotroski 8.50pt = 3.50

2. FCF Yield 2.45% = 1.22

3. FCF Margin 12.66% = 3.17

4. Debt/Equity 1.35 = 1.65

5. Debt/Ebitda 1.68 = 0.63

6. ROIC - WACC (= 33.39)% = 12.50

7. RoE 43.16% = 2.50

8. Rev. Trend 94.99% = 7.12

9. EPS Trend -2.30% = -0.12

What is the price of CMG shares?

As of October 16, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 42.10 with a total of 18,176,580 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.81%, over one month by +9.12%, over three months by -23.20% and over the past year by -28.98%.

Is Chipotle Mexican Grill a good stock to buy?

Yes, based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG) is currently (October 2025) a good stock to buy. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 82.17 and therefor a positive outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of CMG is around 35.04 USD . This means that CMG is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -16.77%.

Is CMG a buy, sell or hold?

Chipotle Mexican Grill has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.29. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CMG.

Strong Buy: 20
Buy: 4
Hold: 10
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the CMG price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	56.9	35.2%
Analysts Target Price	56.9	35.2%
ValueRay Target Price	39.2	-6.8%

Last update: 2025-10-04 03:48

CMG Fundamental Data Overview

Market Cap USD = 56.00b (56.00b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 36.9558
P/E Forward = 28.49
P/S = 4.8366
P/B = 15.3046
P/EG = 1.732
Beta = 0.994
Revenue TTM = 11.58b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.00b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.35b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.78b USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 287.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.78b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.94b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 59.93b USD (56.00b + Debt 4.78b - CCE 844.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -104.5 (Ebit TTM 2.00b / Interest Expense TTM -19.1m)
FCF Yield = 2.45% (FCF TTM 1.47b / Enterprise Value 59.93b)
FCF Margin = 12.66% (FCF TTM 1.47b / Revenue TTM 11.58b)
Net Margin = 13.32% (Net Income TTM 1.54b / Revenue TTM 11.58b)
Gross Margin = 37.34% ((Revenue TTM 11.58b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.25b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 70.28% (prev 26.21%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 6.47 (Enterprise Value 59.93b / Total Assets 9.27b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.19% (Interest Expense 8.95m / Debt 4.78b)
Taxrate = 24.47% (141.3m / 577.4m)
NOPAT = 1.51b (EBIT 2.00b * (1 - 24.47%))
Current Ratio = 1.65 (Total Current Assets 1.87b / Total Current Liabilities 1.13b)
Debt / Equity = 1.35 (Debt 4.78b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.53b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.68 (Net Debt 3.94b / EBITDA 2.35b)
Debt / FCF = 2.69 (Net Debt 3.94b / FCF TTM 1.47b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.57b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 16.64% (Net Income 1.54b / Total Assets 9.27b)
RoE = 43.16% (Net Income TTM 1.54b / Total Stockholder Equity 3.57b)
RoCE = 23.96% (EBIT 2.00b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.57b + L.T.Debt 4.78b))
RoIC = 42.32% (NOPAT 1.51b / Invested Capital 3.57b)
WACC = 8.93% (E(56.00b)/V(60.78b) * Re(9.68%) + D(4.78b)/V(60.78b) * Rd(0.19%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 9.68% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.12%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 76.09% ; FCFE base≈1.40b ; Y1≈1.70b ; Y5≈2.82b
Fair Price DCF = 26.87 (DCF Value 36.04b / Shares Outstanding 1.34b; 5y FCF grow 23.27% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -2.30 | EPS CAGR: -52.15% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 94.99 | Revenue CAGR: 12.42% | SUE: -1.54 | # QB: 0

Additional Sources for CMG Stock

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