(CMG) Chipotle Mexican Grill - Overview

Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Restaurants | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 42.382m USD | Total Return: -35.5% in 12m

Burritos, Bowls, Tacos, Quesadillas, Salads
Total Rating 50
Safety 71
Buy Signal -0.62
Restaurants
Industry Rotation: -0.7
Market Cap: 42.4B
Avg Turnover: 556M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility40.9%
VaR 5th Pctl6.69%
VaR vs Median-0.77%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-1.06
Rel. Str. IBD12.4
Rel. Str. Peer Group33.8
Character TTM
Beta0.714
Beta Downside0.952
Hurst Exponent0.624
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD56.51%
CAGR/Max DD-0.13
CAGR/Mean DD-0.35
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of CMG over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": 0.1072, "2021-06": 0.1492, "2021-09": 0.1404, "2021-12": 0.1116, "2022-03": 0.114, "2022-06": 0.186, "2022-09": 0.1902, "2022-12": 0.1658, "2023-03": 0.21, "2023-06": 0.253, "2023-09": 0.2272, "2023-12": 0.2072, "2024-03": 0.2674, "2024-06": 0.34, "2024-09": 0.27, "2024-12": 0.25, "2025-03": 0.29, "2025-06": 0.33, "2025-09": 0.29, "2025-12": 0.25, "2026-03": 0.24,
EPS CAGR: 13.57%
EPS Trend: 90.0%
Last SUE: 0.24
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of CMG over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 1741.575, 2021-06: 1892.538, 2021-09: 1952.315, 2021-12: 1960.633, 2022-03: 2020.539, 2022-06: 2213.339, 2022-09: 2220.175, 2022-12: 2180.599, 2023-03: 2368.58, 2023-06: 2514.801, 2023-09: 2471.948, 2023-12: 2516.32, 2024-03: 2701.848, 2024-06: 2973.117, 2024-09: 2793.576, 2024-12: 2845.31, 2025-03: 2875.253, 2025-06: 3063.393, 2025-09: 3003.444, 2025-12: 2983.511, 2026-03: 3088.242,
Rev. CAGR: 10.42%
Rev. Trend: 97.8%
Last SUE: 0.62
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Description: CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) operates a global chain of fast-casual restaurants specializing in Mexican-inspired cuisine, including burritos, bowls, and tacos. The company utilizes a company-owned business model rather than franchising, allowing for direct control over its supply chain and the implementation of its Responsibly Raised meat standards. Founded in 1993, the firm has expanded its footprint beyond the United States into Canada and select European markets.

The business leverages a dual-make line kitchen configuration to separate in-restaurant orders from digital sales generated via its mobile app and third-party delivery partners. Within the broader restaurant sector, this fast-casual segment focuses on higher-quality ingredients and a quicker service format compared to traditional full-service dining. Investors can find more detailed performance metrics and valuation data on ValueRay.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Digital sales growth and Chipotlane expansion drive higher restaurant throughput
  • Rising labor costs and commodity inflation pressure quarterly operating margins
  • Same-store sales growth depends on menu innovation and price hike acceptance
  • Aggressive new restaurant openings fuel long-term revenue and market share gains
  • Food safety incidents pose significant reputational and regulatory downside risks
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 8.5
Net Income: 1.45b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.17 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.67 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -0.82% < 20% (prev 4.96%; Δ -5.79% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.25 > 3% & CFO 2.21b > Net Income 1.45b
Net Debt (4.37b) to EBITDA (2.29b): 1.91 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.92 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.30b) vs 12m ago -4.33% < -2%
Gross Margin: 36.13% > 18% (prev 0.26%; Δ 3.59k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 136.0% > 50% (prev 127.0%; Δ 9.01% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 791.2 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 2.29b / Interest Expense TTM 2.42m)
Altman Z'' 1.46
A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 1.14b - Total Current Liabilities 1.24b) / Total Assets 8.80b
B: 0.02 (Retained Earnings 167.7m / Total Assets 8.80b)
C: 0.21 (EBIT TTM 1.92b / Avg Total Assets 8.92b)
D: 0.03 (Book Value of Equity 172.5m / Total Liabilities 6.40b)
Altman-Z'' = 1.46 = BB
Beneish M -3.81
DSRI: 0.88 (Receivables 94.9m/101.6m, Revenue 12.1b/11.5b)
GMI: 0.73 (GM 36.13% / 26.37%)
AQI: 0.34 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.10)
SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 12.1b / 11.5b)
TATA: -0.09 (NI 1.45b - CFO 2.21b) / TA 8.80b)
Beneish M = -3.81 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA
What is the price of CMG shares?

As of May 26, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 32.89 with a total of 18,624,200 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.74%, over one month by -3.86%, over three months by -9.87% and over the past year by -35.50%.

Is CMG a buy, sell or hold?

Chipotle Mexican Grill has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.30. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CMG.

  • StrongBuy: 22
  • Buy: 4
  • Hold: 11
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the CMG price?
Analysts Target Price 43.4 31.9%
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 26 May 2026
Market Cap USD = 42.4b (42.4b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 30.3119
P/E Forward = 28.2486
P/S = 3.4915
P/B = 17.3099
P/EG = 1.7467
Revenue TTM = 12.1b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.92b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.29b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.94b USD (estimated: total debt 5.25b - short term 310.2m)
Short Term Debt = 310.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.25b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 5.25b already included)
Net Debt = 4.37b USD (calculated: Debt 5.25b - CCE 871.4m)
Enterprise Value = 46.8b USD (42.4b + Debt 5.25b - CCE 871.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 791.2 (Ebit TTM 1.92b / Interest Expense TTM 2.42m)
EV/FCF = 31.04x (Enterprise Value 46.8b / FCF TTM 1.51b)
FCF Yield = 3.22% (FCF TTM 1.51b / Enterprise Value 46.8b)
FCF Margin = 12.41% (FCF TTM 1.51b / Revenue TTM 12.1b)
Net Margin = 11.96% (Net Income TTM 1.45b / Revenue TTM 12.1b)
Gross Margin = 36.13% ((Revenue TTM 12.1b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.75b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 68.42% (prev 23.42%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.31 (Enterprise Value 46.8b / Total Assets 8.80b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.05% (Interest Expense 2.42m / Debt 5.25b)
Taxrate = 25.38% (103.0m / 405.8m)
NOPAT = 1.43b (EBIT 1.92b * (1 - 25.38%))
Current Ratio = 0.92 (Total Current Assets 1.14b / Total Current Liabilities 1.24b)
Debt / Equity = 2.18 (Debt 5.25b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.41b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.91 (Net Debt 4.37b / EBITDA 2.29b)
Debt / FCF = 2.90 (Net Debt 4.37b / FCF TTM 1.51b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.00b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 16.27% (Net Income 1.45b / Total Assets 8.80b)
RoE = 48.45% (Net Income TTM 1.45b / Total Stockholder Equity 3.00b)
RoCE = 24.16% (EBIT 1.92b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.00b + L.T.Debt 4.94b))
RoIC = 18.16% (NOPAT 1.43b / Invested Capital 7.88b)
WACC = 7.56% (E(42.4b)/V(47.6b) * Re(8.49%) + D(5.25b)/V(47.6b) * Rd(0.05%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 8.49% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -86.67 | Cagr: -2.59%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.61% ; FCFF base≈1.50b ; Y1≈1.52b ; Y5≈1.65b
[DCF] Fair Price = 16.50 (EV 25.5b - Net Debt 4.37b = Equity 21.2b / Shares 1.28b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 1.29% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 90.02 | EPS CAGR: 13.57% | SUE: 0.24 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.85 | Revenue CAGR: 10.42% | SUE: 0.62 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.32 | Chg30d=-3.14% | Revisions=-65% | Analysts=34
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.29 | Chg30d=-0.72% | Revisions=-33% | Analysts=34
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.13 | Chg30d=-0.67% | Revisions=-24% | GrowthEPS=-3.1% | GrowthRev=+8.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.36 | Chg30d=-0.33% | Revisions=+12% | GrowthEPS=+19.7% | GrowthRev=+10.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -65%