(CMG) Chipotle Mexican Grill - NYSE
Sector: Consumer Cyclical | Industry: Restaurants | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 41.830m USD | Total Return: -43.2% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 650M
EPS Trend: 90.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 97.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) operates a global chain of fast-casual restaurants specializing in Mexican-inspired cuisine, including burritos, bowls, and tacos. The company utilizes a company-owned business model rather than franchising, allowing for direct control over its supply chain and the implementation of its Responsibly Raised meat standards. Founded in 1993, the firm has expanded its footprint beyond the United States into Canada and select European markets.
The business leverages a dual-make line kitchen configuration to separate in-restaurant orders from digital sales generated via its mobile app and third-party delivery partners. Within the broader restaurant sector, this fast-casual segment focuses on higher-quality ingredients and a quicker service format compared to traditional full-service dining. Investors can find more detailed performance metrics and valuation data on ValueRay.
- Digital sales growth and Chipotlane expansion drive higher restaurant throughput
- Rising labor costs and commodity inflation pressure quarterly operating margins
- Same-store sales growth depends on menu innovation and price hike acceptance
- Aggressive new restaurant openings fuel long-term revenue and market share gains
- Food safety incidents pose significant reputational and regulatory downside risks
| Net Income: 1.45b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.17 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.67 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.82% < 20% (prev 4.96%; Δ -5.79% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.25 > 3% & CFO 2.21b > Net Income 1.45b |
| Net Debt (4.37b) to EBITDA (2.28b): 1.91 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.92 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.30b) vs 12m ago -4.33% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 36.13% > 18% (prev 26.37%; Δ 9.76% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 136.0% > 50% (prev 127.0%; Δ 9.01% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 1.14b - Total Current Liabilities 1.24b) / Total Assets 8.80b |
| B: 0.02 (Retained Earnings 167.7m / Total Assets 8.80b) |
| C: 0.21 (EBIT TTM 1.91b / Avg Total Assets 8.92b) |
| D: 0.38 (Book Value of Equity 2.41b / Total Liabilities 6.40b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.82 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.88 (Receivables 94.9m/101.6m, Revenue 12.1b/11.5b) |
| GMI: 0.73 (GM 26.37% / 36.13%) |
| AQI: 0.34 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.10) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 12.1b / 11.5b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 1.45b - CFO 2.21b) / TA 8.80b) |
| Beneish M = -3.73 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of June 23, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 30.54 with a total of 18,140,202 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.24%, over one month by -7.15%, over three months by -8.45% and over the past year by -43.21%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 29.10 (which is 4.7% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Chipotle Mexican Grill has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.30. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CMG.
- StrongBuy: 22
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 11
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 42.9 | 40.4% |
P/E Trailing = 29.9174
P/E Forward = 28.49
P/S = 3.446
P/B = 17.4378
P/EG = 1.7596
Revenue TTM = 12.1b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.91b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.28b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.94b USD (estimated: total debt 5.25b - short term 310.2m)
Short Term Debt = 310.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.25b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 5.25b already included)
Net Debt = 4.37b USD (calculated: Debt 5.25b - CCE 871.4m)
Enterprise Value = 46.2b USD (41.8b + Debt 5.25b - CCE 871.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 1.91b / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 30.67x (Enterprise Value 46.2b / FCF TTM 1.51b)
FCF Yield = 3.26% (FCF TTM 1.51b / Enterprise Value 46.2b)
FCF Margin = 12.41% (FCF TTM 1.51b / Revenue TTM 12.1b)
Net Margin = 11.96% (Net Income TTM 1.45b / Revenue TTM 12.1b)
Gross Margin = 36.13% ((Revenue TTM 12.1b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.75b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 68.42% (prev 23.42%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.25 (Enterprise Value 46.2b / Total Assets 8.80b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 5.25b)
Taxrate = 24.13% (461.8m / 1.91b)
NOPAT = 1.45b (EBIT 1.91b * (1 - 24.13%))
Current Ratio = 0.92 (Total Current Assets 1.14b / Total Current Liabilities 1.24b)
Debt / Equity = 2.18 (Debt 5.25b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.41b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.91 (Net Debt 4.37b / EBITDA 2.28b)
Debt / FCF = 2.90 (Net Debt 4.37b / FCF TTM 1.51b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.00b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 16.27% (Net Income 1.45b / Total Assets 8.80b)
RoE = 48.45% (Net Income TTM 1.45b / Total Stockholder Equity 3.00b)
RoCE = 24.13% (EBIT 1.91b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.00b + L.T.Debt 4.94b))
RoIC = 19.97% (NOPAT 1.45b / Invested Capital 7.27b)
WACC = 7.14% (E(41.8b)/V(47.1b) * Re(8.04%) + D(5.25b)/V(47.1b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 8.04% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -86.67 | Cagr: -2.59%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.61% ; FCFF base≈1.50b ; Y1≈1.52b ; Y5≈1.65b
[DCF] Fair Price = 16.50 (EV 25.5b - Net Debt 4.37b = Equity 21.2b / Shares 1.28b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 1.29% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 90.02 | EPS CAGR: 13.57% | SUE: 0.27 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.85 | Revenue CAGR: 10.42% | SUE: 0.62 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.32 | Chg30d=-0.03% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=33
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.29 | Chg30d=-0.03% | Revisions=-14% | Analysts=33
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.13 | Chg30d=+0.04% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-3.1% | GrowthRev=+8.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.36 | Chg30d=-0.11% | Revisions=-11% | GrowthEPS=+19.6% | GrowthRev=+10.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -25%