CMG Stock Analysis: Chipotle Mexican Grill | NYSE
Restaurants | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 43.613m USD | 12M Return: -38.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 643M
EPS Trend: 90.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 97.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMG) owns and operates a chain of fast-casual restaurants serving Mexican-inspired food, including burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads. The company emphasizes responsibly sourced ingredients, with meats marketed under its Responsibly Raised brand. In addition to dine-in service, Chipotle generates revenue through digital ordering via its website, mobile app, and third-party delivery platforms, reflecting the broader industry shift toward off-premise and digital sales channels in the restaurant sector. Founded in 1993 and headquartered in Newport Beach, California, Chipotle operates in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, and has been publicly traded since its 2006 IPO.
- Digital sales surge drives traffic and revenue growth
- Menu price increases offset food and labor cost pressures
- New restaurant unit growth accelerates in US and Europe
| Net Income: 1.45b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.17 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.67 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.82% < 20% (prev 4.96%; Δ -5.79% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.25 > 3% & CFO 2.21b > Net Income 1.45b |
| Net Debt (4.37b) to EBITDA (2.28b): 1.91 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.92 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.30b) vs 12m ago -4.33% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 36.13% > 18% (prev 26.37%; Δ 9.76% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 136.0% > 50% (prev 127.0%; Δ 9.01% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 1.14b - Total Current Liabilities 1.24b) / Total Assets 8.80b |
| B: 0.02 (Retained Earnings 167.7m / Total Assets 8.80b) |
| C: 0.21 (EBIT TTM 1.91b / Avg Total Assets 8.92b) |
| D: 0.38 (Book Value of Equity 2.41b / Total Liabilities 6.40b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.82 = BBB |
| DSRI: 0.88 (Receivables 94.9m/101.6m, Revenue 12.1b/11.5b) |
| GMI: 0.73 (GM 26.37% / 36.13%) |
| AQI: 0.34 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.10) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 12.1b / 11.5b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 1.45b - CFO 2.21b) / TA 8.80b) |
| Beneish M = -3.73 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of July 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 33.98 with a total of 16,927,460 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.92%, over one month by +16.09%, over three months by +1.43% and over the past year by -38.73%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 31.10 (which is 8.5% or 2.6 ATR below the current price).
Chipotle Mexican Grill has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.30. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CMG.
- StrongBuy: 22
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 11
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 42.9 | 26.2% |
P/E Trailing = 31.1927
P/E Forward = 29.5858
P/S = 3.5929
P/B = 18.1144
P/EG = 1.8278
Revenue TTM = 12.1b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.91b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.28b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.94b USD (estimated: total debt 5.25b - short term 310.2m)
Short Term Debt = 310.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.25b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 5.25b already included)
Net Debt = 4.37b USD (calculated: Debt 5.25b - CCE 871.4m)
Enterprise Value = 48.0b USD (43.6b + Debt 5.25b - CCE 871.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 1.91b / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 31.86x (Enterprise Value 48.0b / FCF TTM 1.51b)
FCF Yield = 3.14% (FCF TTM 1.51b / Enterprise Value 48.0b)
FCF Margin = 12.41% (FCF TTM 1.51b / Revenue TTM 12.1b)
Net Margin = 11.96% (Net Income TTM 1.45b / Revenue TTM 12.1b)
Gross Margin = 36.13% ((Revenue TTM 12.1b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.75b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 68.42% (prev 23.42%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.45 (Enterprise Value 48.0b / Total Assets 8.80b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 5.25b)
Taxrate = 24.13% (461.8m / 1.91b)
NOPAT = 1.45b (EBIT 1.91b * (1 - 24.13%))
Current Ratio = 0.92 (Total Current Assets 1.14b / Total Current Liabilities 1.24b)
Debt / Equity = 2.18 (Debt 5.25b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.41b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.91 (Net Debt 4.37b / EBITDA 2.28b)
Debt / FCF = 2.90 (Net Debt 4.37b / FCF TTM 1.51b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.00b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 16.27% (Net Income 1.45b / Total Assets 8.80b)
RoE = 48.45% (Net Income TTM 1.45b / Total Stockholder Equity 3.00b)
RoCE = 24.13% (EBIT 1.91b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.00b + L.T.Debt 4.94b))
RoIC = 19.97% (NOPAT 1.45b / Invested Capital 7.27b)
WACC = 7.40% (E(43.6b)/V(48.9b) * Re(8.29%) + D(5.25b)/V(48.9b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 8.29% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -86.67 | Cagr: -2.59%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.61% ; FCFF base≈1.50b ; Y1≈1.52b ; Y5≈1.65b
[DCF] Fair Price = 16.50 (EV 25.5b - Net Debt 4.37b = Equity 21.2b / Shares 1.28b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 1.29% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 90.02 | EPS CAGR: 13.57% | SUE: 0.27 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.85 | Revenue CAGR: 10.42% | SUE: 0.62 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.32 | Chg30d=-0.03% | Revisions=-29% | Analysts=33
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.29 | Chg30d=-0.03% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=33
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.13 | Chg30d=+0.04% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=-3.1% | GrowthRev=+8.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.36 | Chg30d=-0.11% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=+19.6% | GrowthRev=+10.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -21% (up=6, down=10)