CMG Stock Analysis: Chipotle Mexican Grill | NYSE
Restaurants | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 38.937m USD | 12M Return: -25.7% | US1696561059 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 553M
EPS Trend: 82.1%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 97.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) is a large-cap U.S. restaurant company that owns and operates fast-casual Mexican-inspired restaurants across six countries: the United States, Canada, France, Germany, South Korea, and the United Kingdom. Its menu centers on customizable items such as burritos, burrito bowls, tacos, quesadillas, and salads, and it emphasizes responsibly sourced proteins under its Responsibly Raised brand. The company was founded in 1993, is headquartered in Newport Beach, California, and went public in January 2006.
The company operates in the Consumer Discretionary sector within the restaurants sub-industry, a segment that includes fast-casual chains positioned between traditional quick-service and full-service dining on price, speed, and food quality. Chipotle also generates sales through digital channels, including its website, mobile app, and third-party delivery platforms-an increasingly important revenue stream across the restaurant industry, where digital ordering has reshaped how large chains interact with customers.
- Digital sales growth drives same-store traffic gains
- Menu price increases support restaurant margin expansion
- International expansion into Europe and Korea adds new units
- Beef and avocado input costs pressure food costs
| Net Income: 1.42b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.18 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.88 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -3.01% < 20% (prev 6.36%; Δ -9.38% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.26 > 3% & CFO 2.33b > Net Income 1.42b |
| Net Debt (4.74b) to EBITDA (2.27b): 2.08 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.72 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.29b) vs 12m ago -4.43% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 24.13% > 18% (prev 25.98%; Δ -1.85% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 137.0% > 50% (prev 124.9%; Δ 12.12% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 72.47 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.90b / Interest Expense TTM 26.2m) |
| A: -0.04 (Total Current Assets 940.7m - Total Current Liabilities 1.32b) / Total Assets 8.86b |
| B: -0.01 (Retained Earnings -67.2m / Total Assets 8.86b) |
| C: 0.21 (EBIT TTM 1.90b / Avg Total Assets 9.07b) |
| D: 0.33 (Book Value of Equity 2.20b / Total Liabilities 6.66b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.45 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.50 (Receivables 100.3m/185.7m, Revenue 12.4b/11.6b) |
| GMI: 1.08 (GM 25.98% / 24.13%) |
| AQI: 0.44 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.07) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 12.4b / 11.6b) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI 1.42b - CFO 2.33b) / TA 8.86b) |
| Beneish M = -3.66 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of October 13, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 30.40 with a total of 28,509,949 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.46%, over one month by -17.90%, over three months by -17.01% and over the past year by -25.67%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 28.80 (which is 5.3% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Chipotle Mexican Grill has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.23. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CMG.
- StrongBuy: 20
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 12
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 43.8 | 43.9% |
P/E Trailing = 28.2294
P/E Forward = 28.49
P/S = 3.1341
P/B = 15.3046
P/EG = 1.732
Revenue TTM = 12.4b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.90b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.27b USD
Long Term Debt = 5.10b USD (estimated: total debt 5.42b - short term 317.0m)
Short Term Debt = 317.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.42b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 5.42b already included)
Net Debt = 4.74b USD (calculated: Debt 5.42b - CCE 677.9m)
Enterprise Value = 43.7b USD (38.9b + Debt 5.42b - CCE 677.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 72.47 (Ebit TTM 1.90b / Interest Expense TTM 26.2m)
EV/FCF = 27.84x (Enterprise Value 43.7b / FCF TTM 1.57b)
FCF Yield = 3.59% (FCF TTM 1.57b / Enterprise Value 43.7b)
FCF Margin = 12.63% (FCF TTM 1.57b / Revenue TTM 12.4b)
Net Margin = 11.42% (Net Income TTM 1.42b / Revenue TTM 12.4b)
Gross Margin = 24.13% ((Revenue TTM 12.4b - Cost of Revenue TTM 9.43b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.22% (prev 23.28%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.93 (Enterprise Value 43.7b / Total Assets 8.86b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.48% (Interest Expense 26.2m / Debt 5.42b)
Taxrate = 24.08% (450.3m / 1.87b)
NOPAT = 1.44b (EBIT 1.90b * (1 - 24.08%))
Current Ratio = 0.72 (Total Current Assets 940.7m / Total Current Liabilities 1.32b)
Debt / Equity = 2.46 (Debt 5.42b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.20b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.08 (Net Debt 4.74b / EBITDA 2.27b)
Debt / FCF = 3.02 (Net Debt 4.74b / FCF TTM 1.57b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.66b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 15.66% (Net Income 1.42b / Total Assets 8.86b)
RoE = 53.26% (Net Income TTM 1.42b / Total Stockholder Equity 2.66b)
RoCE = 24.41% (EBIT 1.90b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.66b + L.T.Debt 5.10b))
RoIC = 19.86% (NOPAT 1.44b / Invested Capital 7.25b)
WACC = 7.07% (E(38.9b)/V(44.4b) * Re(8.0%) + D(5.42b)/V(44.4b) * Rd(0.48%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 8.0% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -96.98 | Cagr: -2.97%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.32% ; FCFF base≈1.53b ; Y1≈1.62b ; Y5≈1.93b
[DCF] Fair Price = 19.65 (EV 29.6b - Net Debt 4.74b = Equity 24.9b / Shares 1.27b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 7.04% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 82.10 | EPS CAGR: 10.04% | SUE: 1.17 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 97.64 | Revenue CAGR: 9.57% | SUE: 0.45 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.29 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+29% | Analysts=32
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.15 | Chg30d=+0.01% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=-1.7% | GrowthRev=+9.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.37 | Chg30d=-0.07% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+19.1% | GrowthRev=+10.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +56% (up=11, down=2)