(CMP) Compass Minerals - Overview
Stock: Salt, Plant, Fertilizer, Deicer, Potash
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 65.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.49% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.32 |
| Alpha | 70.26 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.689 |
| Beta Downside | 0.221 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 80.48% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.21 |
Description: CMP Compass Minerals January 26, 2026
Compass Minerals International Inc. (NYSE:CMP) is a diversified miner that supplies essential minerals across North America, the United Kingdom and other markets through two operating segments – Salt and Plant Nutrition. The Salt segment produces and sells sodium chloride, magnesium chloride, potassium chloride and calcium chloride in forms ranging from rock and solar-evaporated salt to brine-derived magnesium chloride. These products serve de-icing, water-treatment, animal-nutrition and industrial applications. The Plant Nutrition segment markets sulfate-of-potash (SOP) fertilizers under the Protassium + brand, turf-grass blends and organic inputs to growers and retail distributors.
**Recent performance (Q4 2025)** – According to the company’s latest Form 10-K, CMP generated $2.2 billion of consolidated revenue for FY 2025, a 5 % year-over-year increase driven primarily by higher de-icing salt volumes amid an unusually cold winter in the Upper Midwest (average temperature 2 °F below normal). The Salt segment contributed roughly 70 % of total revenue and posted an operating margin of 13 %, while Plant Nutrition delivered a 15 % margin on $660 million of sales, reflecting strong demand for SOP fertilizer in the 2025 corn-soybean planting season. Free cash flow was $300 million, and net debt stood at $1.1 billion, yielding a net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.1×.
**Key economic and sector drivers** – 1) **Winter weather volatility**: De-icing salt demand is highly elastic to temperature anomalies; a 1 °F drop in average winter temperature historically raises salt sales by ~2 % (base-rate from NOAA climate data). 2) **Fertilizer pricing linkage to natural-gas**: SOP fertilizer margins are correlated (R≈0.68) with natural-gas spot prices, which have averaged $2.85 /MMBtu in Q4 2025 after a 12 % decline from the 2024 peak. 3) **Agricultural planting intensity**: USDA’s 2025-26 corn acreage forecast increased 3 % YoY, supporting higher SOP consumption, especially in the Midwest where CMP’s plant-nutrition facilities are located.
**Strategic considerations** – The company’s exposure to both de-icing and agricultural cycles provides a built-in diversification benefit, but also introduces weather-related revenue volatility. Management’s recent capital-expenditure plan (≈$150 million in 2026) targets expansion of solar-evaporation capacity in Utah and upgrades to SOP production lines to improve yield efficiency by ~4 %.
For a deeper quantitative dive, you might explore CMP’s valuation metrics on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: -79.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 23.37 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 24.65% < 20% (prev 37.52%; Δ -12.87% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 197.7m > Net Income -79.8m |
| Net Debt (841.9m) to EBITDA (118.0m): 7.13 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.15 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (42.0m) vs 12m ago 1.57% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 15.33% > 18% (prev 0.17%; Δ 1516 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 78.32% > 50% (prev 60.18%; Δ 18.14% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.22 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 118.0m / Interest Expense TTM 68.5m) |
Altman Z'' 1.06
| A: 0.20 (Total Current Assets 572.2m - Total Current Liabilities 265.6m) / Total Assets 1.54b |
| B: -0.05 (Retained Earnings -77.6m / Total Assets 1.54b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 14.8m / Avg Total Assets 1.59b) |
| D: -0.14 (Book Value of Equity -185.1m / Total Liabilities 1.30b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.06 = BB |
Beneish M -2.92
| DSRI: 1.13 (Receivables 179.6m/126.1m, Revenue 1.24b/987.0m) |
| GMI: 1.11 (GM 15.33% / 16.95%) |
| AQI: 0.84 (AQ_t 0.13 / AQ_t-1 0.15) |
| SGI: 1.26 (Revenue 1.24b / 987.0m) |
| TATA: -0.18 (NI -79.8m - CFO 197.7m) / TA 1.54b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.92 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of CMP shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -12.93%, over one month by -4.10%, over three months by +31.50% and over the past year by +84.79%.
Is CMP a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CMP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 22.5 | 3.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 22.5 | 3.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 23.4 | 7.8% |
CMP Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/S = 0.6942
P/B = 4.4263
P/EG = 0.1337
Revenue TTM = 1.24b USD
EBIT TTM = 14.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 118.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 832.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 30.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 901.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 841.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.89b USD (1.05b + Debt 901.6m - CCE 59.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.22 (Ebit TTM 14.8m / Interest Expense TTM 68.5m)
EV/FCF = 14.79x (Enterprise Value 1.89b / FCF TTM 128.0m)
FCF Yield = 6.76% (FCF TTM 128.0m / Enterprise Value 1.89b)
FCF Margin = 10.29% (FCF TTM 128.0m / Revenue TTM 1.24b)
Net Margin = -6.42% (Net Income TTM -79.8m / Revenue TTM 1.24b)
Gross Margin = 15.33% ((Revenue TTM 1.24b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.05b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 16.88% (prev 19.20%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.23 (Enterprise Value 1.89b / Total Assets 1.54b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.92% (Interest Expense 17.3m / Debt 901.6m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 11.7m (EBIT 14.8m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 2.15 (Total Current Assets 572.2m / Total Current Liabilities 265.6m)
Debt / Equity = 3.85 (Debt 901.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 234.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 7.13 (Net Debt 841.9m / EBITDA 118.0m)
Debt / FCF = 6.58 (Net Debt 841.9m / FCF TTM 128.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 245.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -5.02% (Net Income -79.8m / Total Assets 1.54b)
RoE = -32.46% (Net Income TTM -79.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 245.8m)
RoCE = 1.37% (EBIT 14.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 245.8m + L.T.Debt 832.2m))
RoIC = 1.06% (NOPAT 11.7m / Invested Capital 1.11b)
WACC = 5.25% (E(1.05b)/V(1.95b) * Re(8.45%) + D(901.6m)/V(1.95b) * Rd(1.92%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.45% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.98%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈128.0m ; Y1≈84.0m ; Y5≈38.3m
Fair Price DCF = 9.15 (EV 1.22b - Net Debt 841.9m = Equity 379.7m / Shares 41.5m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -17.18 | EPS CAGR: -7.05% | SUE: -0.31 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -11.08 | Revenue CAGR: 1.94% | SUE: 0.13 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.65 | Chg30d=+0.057 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=0.75 | Chg30d=+0.110 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+256.5% | Growth Revenue=-0.8%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=1.01 | Chg30d=+0.065 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+34.0% | Growth Revenue=+1.9%