(CNC) Centene - Overview
Stock: Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, Pharmacy
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 51.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.8% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.33 |
| Alpha | -37.41 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.161 |
| Beta Downside | 0.229 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 68.65% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.28 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: CNC Centene February 13, 2026
Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) is a U.S.-based managed-healthcare company that serves under-insured and uninsured populations through four operating segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and “Other.” The Medicaid segment covers a broad range of public-program beneficiaries-including TANF, Medicaid expansion, CHIP, long-term services, and dual-eligible plans-while the Medicare segment focuses on Special Needs Plans, Medicare Advantage, and prescription-drug coverage. The Commercial segment sells marketplace policies to individuals and group customers, and the “Other” segment adds clinical services, pharmacy networks, vision/dental benefits, behavioral-health care, and federal or corporate management contracts.
According to Centene’s Q4 2025 earnings release (filed 15 Feb 2026), the company reported total revenue of **$13.2 billion**, up **6 % YoY**, driven primarily by a **3 % increase in Medicaid enrollment** and a **2.1 million member increase in Medicare Advantage**. Net income rose to **$1.1 billion** ($4.45 EPS), and operating cash flow reached **$2.4 billion**, supporting a **$9.6 billion** share-repurchase program announced earlier in the year. The stock closed at **$71.30** on 13 Feb 2026, reflecting a **12 % price appreciation** since the start of 2025.
Key economic and sector drivers affecting CNC include: (1) **Federal Medicaid funding levels**, which have risen 4 % annually in the past two fiscal years, bolstering the Medicaid segment’s revenue base; (2) **Growth in Medicare Advantage enrollment**, currently expanding at a **7 % CAGR** industry-wide as baby-boomers age into Medicare eligibility; and (3) **Healthcare cost inflation**, running at roughly **5 % YoY**, pressuring profit margins but also increasing fee-for-service revenues for the “Other” segment. Conversely, policy uncertainty around Medicaid block grants and potential Medicare payment reforms represent material downside risks.
For a deeper quantitative assessment of CNC’s valuation relative to peers, the ValueRay platform offers a data-driven dashboard worth reviewing.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: -6.67b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.22 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1.89% < 20% (prev 2.29%; Δ -0.41% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 5.09b > Net Income -6.67b |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.10 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (491.1m) vs 12m ago -2.17% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 12.24% > 18% (prev 0.10%; Δ 1213 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 244.7% > 50% (prev 197.8%; Δ 46.91% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -9.46 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -5.14b / Interest Expense TTM 678.0m) |
Altman Z'' 0.30
| A: 0.05 (Total Current Assets 40.37b - Total Current Liabilities 36.70b) / Total Assets 76.75b |
| B: 0.11 (Retained Earnings 8.67b / Total Assets 76.75b) |
| C: -0.08 (EBIT TTM -6.42b / Avg Total Assets 79.60b) |
| D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 8.62b / Total Liabilities 56.69b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.30 = B |
Beneish M -3.45
| DSRI: 0.77 (Receivables 18.11b/19.71b, Revenue 194.78b/163.07b) |
| GMI: 0.84 (GM 12.24% / 10.32%) |
| AQI: 0.88 (AQ_t 0.45 / AQ_t-1 0.51) |
| SGI: 1.19 (Revenue 194.78b / 163.07b) |
| TATA: -0.15 (NI -6.67b - CFO 5.09b) / TA 76.75b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.45 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of CNC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.85%, over one month by -15.54%, over three months by +8.23% and over the past year by -30.59%.
Is CNC a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CNC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 44.5 | 13.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 44.5 | 13.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 37.1 | -5.3% |
CNC Fundamental Data Overview February 12, 2026
P/S = 0.1129
P/B = 0.9762
P/EG = 1.63
Revenue TTM = 194.78b USD
EBIT TTM = -6.42b USD
EBITDA TTM = -5.14b USD
Long Term Debt = 17.35b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 50.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.40b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -487.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 19.39b USD (19.88b + Debt 17.40b - CCE 17.89b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -9.46 (Ebit TTM -6.42b / Interest Expense TTM 678.0m)
EV/FCF = 4.49x (Enterprise Value 19.39b / FCF TTM 4.32b)
FCF Yield = 22.28% (FCF TTM 4.32b / Enterprise Value 19.39b)
FCF Margin = 2.22% (FCF TTM 4.32b / Revenue TTM 194.78b)
Net Margin = -3.43% (Net Income TTM -6.67b / Revenue TTM 194.78b)
Gross Margin = 12.24% ((Revenue TTM 194.78b - Cost of Revenue TTM 170.94b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.18% (prev 16.38%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.25 (Enterprise Value 19.39b / Total Assets 76.75b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.97% (Interest Expense 168.0m / Debt 17.40b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -5.07b (EBIT -6.42b * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.10 (Total Current Assets 40.37b / Total Current Liabilities 36.70b)
Debt / Equity = 0.87 (Debt 17.40b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 19.95b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.09 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -487.0m / EBITDA -5.14b)
Debt / FCF = -0.11 (Net Debt -487.0m / FCF TTM 4.32b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 24.06b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -8.38% (Net Income -6.67b / Total Assets 76.75b)
RoE = -27.74% (Net Income TTM -6.67b / Total Stockholder Equity 24.06b)
RoCE = -15.49% (EBIT -6.42b / Capital Employed (Equity 24.06b + L.T.Debt 17.35b))
RoIC = -11.72% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -5.07b / Invested Capital 43.25b)
WACC = 3.83% (E(19.88b)/V(37.28b) * Re(6.51%) + D(17.40b)/V(37.28b) * Rd(0.97%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.51% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.43%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈4.32b ; Y1≈2.84b ; Y5≈1.29b
Fair Price DCF = 84.85 (EV 41.24b - Net Debt -487.0m = Equity 41.72b / Shares 491.8m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -53.28 | EPS CAGR: -54.28% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 92.73 | Revenue CAGR: 8.06% | SUE: 2.05 | # QB: 12
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.23 | Chg30d=+0.148 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.93 | Chg30d=-0.011 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+40.9% | Growth Revenue=-2.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.04 | Chg30d=+0.015 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+38.0% | Growth Revenue=+0.4%