(CNC) Centene - Overview
Stock: Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, Pharmacy
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 52.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.9% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.22 |
| Alpha | -30.67 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.161 |
| Beta Downside | 0.243 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 68.65% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.22 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: CNC Centene February 13, 2026
Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) is a U.S.-based managed-healthcare company that serves under-insured and uninsured populations through four operating segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Commercial, and “Other.” The Medicaid segment covers a broad range of public-program beneficiaries-including TANF, Medicaid expansion, CHIP, long-term services, and dual-eligible plans-while the Medicare segment focuses on Special Needs Plans, Medicare Advantage, and prescription-drug coverage. The Commercial segment sells marketplace policies to individuals and group customers, and the “Other” segment adds clinical services, pharmacy networks, vision/dental benefits, behavioral-health care, and federal or corporate management contracts.
According to Centene’s Q4 2025 earnings release (filed 15 Feb 2026), the company reported total revenue of **$13.2 billion**, up **6 % YoY**, driven primarily by a **3 % increase in Medicaid enrollment** and a **2.1 million member increase in Medicare Advantage**. Net income rose to **$1.1 billion** ($4.45 EPS), and operating cash flow reached **$2.4 billion**, supporting a **$9.6 billion** share-repurchase program announced earlier in the year. The stock closed at **$71.30** on 13 Feb 2026, reflecting a **12 % price appreciation** since the start of 2025.
Key economic and sector drivers affecting CNC include: (1) **Federal Medicaid funding levels**, which have risen 4 % annually in the past two fiscal years, bolstering the Medicaid segment’s revenue base; (2) **Growth in Medicare Advantage enrollment**, currently expanding at a **7 % CAGR** industry-wide as baby-boomers age into Medicare eligibility; and (3) **Healthcare cost inflation**, running at roughly **5 % YoY**, pressuring profit margins but also increasing fee-for-service revenues for the “Other” segment. Conversely, policy uncertainty around Medicaid block grants and potential Medicare payment reforms represent material downside risks.
For a deeper quantitative assessment of CNC’s valuation relative to peers, the ValueRay platform offers a data-driven dashboard worth reviewing.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: -6.67b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.16 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 7.45% < 20% (prev 2.29%; Δ 5.16% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 5.09b > Net Income -6.67b |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.68 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (491.1m) vs 12m ago -2.17% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 12.24% > 18% (prev 0.10%; Δ 1213 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 243.3% > 50% (prev 197.8%; Δ 45.52% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -9.46 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -5.14b / Interest Expense TTM 678.0m) |
Altman Z'' 1.21
| A: 0.19 (Total Current Assets 35.99b - Total Current Liabilities 21.48b) / Total Assets 77.66b |
| B: 0.11 (Retained Earnings 8.67b / Total Assets 77.66b) |
| C: -0.08 (EBIT TTM -6.42b / Avg Total Assets 80.05b) |
| D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 8.62b / Total Liabilities 57.60b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.21 = BB |
Beneish M -3.38
| DSRI: 0.77 (Receivables 18.11b/19.71b, Revenue 194.78b/163.07b) |
| GMI: 0.84 (GM 12.24% / 10.32%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.51 / AQ_t-1 0.51) |
| SGI: 1.19 (Revenue 194.78b / 163.07b) |
| TATA: -0.15 (NI -6.67b - CFO 5.09b) / TA 77.66b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.38 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of CNC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.88%, over one month by -4.80%, over three months by +13.28% and over the past year by -26.62%.
Is CNC a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CNC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 44.2 | 2.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 44.2 | 2.3% |
CNC Fundamental Data Overview February 22, 2026
P/S = 0.1207
P/B = 1.0001
P/EG = 1.6983
Revenue TTM = 194.78b USD
EBIT TTM = -6.42b USD
EBITDA TTM = -5.14b USD
Long Term Debt = 17.35b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 196.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 18.78b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 889.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 22.15b USD (21.26b + Debt 18.78b - CCE 17.89b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -9.46 (Ebit TTM -6.42b / Interest Expense TTM 678.0m)
EV/FCF = 5.13x (Enterprise Value 22.15b / FCF TTM 4.32b)
FCF Yield = 19.51% (FCF TTM 4.32b / Enterprise Value 22.15b)
FCF Margin = 2.22% (FCF TTM 4.32b / Revenue TTM 194.78b)
Net Margin = -3.43% (Net Income TTM -6.67b / Revenue TTM 194.78b)
Gross Margin = 12.24% ((Revenue TTM 194.78b - Cost of Revenue TTM 170.94b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.18% (prev 16.38%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.29 (Enterprise Value 22.15b / Total Assets 77.66b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.89% (Interest Expense 168.0m / Debt 18.78b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -5.07b (EBIT -6.42b * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.68 (Total Current Assets 35.99b / Total Current Liabilities 21.48b)
Debt / Equity = 0.94 (Debt 18.78b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 19.95b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.17 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 889.0m / EBITDA -5.14b)
Debt / FCF = 0.21 (Net Debt 889.0m / FCF TTM 4.32b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 24.06b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -8.34% (Net Income -6.67b / Total Assets 77.66b)
RoE = -27.74% (Net Income TTM -6.67b / Total Stockholder Equity 24.06b)
RoCE = -15.49% (EBIT -6.42b / Capital Employed (Equity 24.06b + L.T.Debt 17.35b))
RoIC = -11.72% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -5.07b / Invested Capital 43.25b)
WACC = 3.79% (E(21.26b)/V(40.04b) * Re(6.51%) + D(18.78b)/V(40.04b) * Rd(0.89%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.51% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.43%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈4.32b ; Y1≈2.84b ; Y5≈1.29b
Fair Price DCF = 82.05 (EV 41.24b - Net Debt 889.0m = Equity 40.35b / Shares 491.8m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -53.28 | EPS CAGR: -54.28% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 92.73 | Revenue CAGR: 8.06% | SUE: 2.05 | # QB: 12
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.24 | Chg30d=+0.160 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=17
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.97 | Chg30d=-0.026 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+42.7% | Growth Revenue=-3.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.13 | Chg30d=+0.100 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+39.1% | Growth Revenue=+0.8%