(CNI) Canadian National Railway - Ratings and Ratios
Rail, Intermodal, Trucking, Transloading, Logistics
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.35% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.25% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 9.00% |
| Payout Consistency | 94.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 34.7% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 20.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 33.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -0.54% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.74 |
| Alpha | -24.05 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.27 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.554 |
| Beta | 0.571 |
| Beta Downside | 0.391 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 29.13% |
| Mean DD | 13.02% |
| Median DD | 11.15% |
Description: CNI Canadian National Railway September 26, 2025
Canadian National Railway Company (NYSE:CNI) operates a North-American transportation network that spans Canada and the United States, offering rail, intermodal, trucking, and related logistics services. Its portfolio includes equipment leasing, customs brokerage, transloading, door-to-door freight, temperature-controlled cargo, and specialized services such as flatbed and overweight permits, serving sectors ranging from automotive and grain to chemicals and third-party logistics.
Key performance indicators from the most recent fiscal year show revenue of roughly $16.2 billion and an operating ratio of about 58 percent, indicating efficient cost control relative to peers. Intermodal volumes grew double-digit year-over-year, driven by sustained e-commerce demand and a shift of high-value goods from truck to rail. Meanwhile, coal and fertilizer shipments remain material contributors, exposing CN to commodity price cycles and seasonal weather patterns.
Strategic drivers for the business include continued infrastructure investment-CN has earmarked over $15 billion through 2028 for track upgrades, signal modernization, and capacity expansion in high-traffic corridors such as the Midwest grain belt. Macroeconomic factors such as U.S. agricultural export volumes, North-American oil demand, and cross-border trade policies directly affect freight volumes, while regulatory trends around emissions are prompting CN to expand its low-carbon initiatives.
For a deeper quantitative dive into CN’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform offers a useful toolkit.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income (4.30b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 961.4m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.06 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.59pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -10.37% (prev -9.77%; Δ -0.60pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 (>3.0%) and CFO 6.82b > Net Income 4.30b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (20.91b) to EBITDA (8.35b) ratio: 2.50 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.60 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (622.4m) change vs 12m ago -1.28% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 42.16% (prev 41.53%; Δ 0.63pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 28.58% (prev 31.50%; Δ -2.92pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 7.71 (EBITDA TTM 8.35b / Interest Expense TTM 846.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.20
| (A) -0.03 = (Total Current Assets 2.51b - Total Current Liabilities 4.17b) / Total Assets 57.65b |
| (B) 0.33 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 18.79b / Total Assets 57.65b |
| (C) 0.12 = EBIT TTM 6.52b / Avg Total Assets 56.07b |
| (D) 0.52 = Book Value of Equity 18.79b / Total Liabilities 36.38b |
| Total Rating: 2.20 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 66.88
| 1. Piotroski 6.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.33% |
| 3. FCF Margin 21.49% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.00 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 5.13)% |
| 7. RoE 20.11% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -14.40% |
| 9. EPS Trend 15.52% |
What is the price of CNI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.48%, over one month by -0.80%, over three months by -2.02% and over the past year by -12.12%.
Is CNI a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 9
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 14
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the CNI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 108.7 | 15.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 108.7 | 15.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 95.4 | 1.5% |
CNI Fundamental Data Overview November 24, 2025
P/E Trailing = 17.7801
P/E Forward = 16.0772
P/S = 3.3872
P/B = 3.7786
P/EG = 2.0481
Beta = 0.907
Revenue TTM = 16.02b CAD
EBIT TTM = 6.52b CAD
EBITDA TTM = 8.35b CAD
Long Term Debt = 19.55b CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.57b CAD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 21.37b CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 20.91b CAD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 103.35b CAD (82.19b + Debt 21.37b - CCE 214.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.71 (Ebit TTM 6.52b / Interest Expense TTM 846.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.33% (FCF TTM 3.44b / Enterprise Value 103.35b)
FCF Margin = 21.49% (FCF TTM 3.44b / Revenue TTM 16.02b)
Net Margin = 26.82% (Net Income TTM 4.30b / Revenue TTM 16.02b)
Gross Margin = 42.16% ((Revenue TTM 16.02b - Cost of Revenue TTM 9.27b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.90% (prev 42.77%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.79 (Enterprise Value 103.35b / Total Assets 57.65b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.76% (Interest Expense 163.0m / Debt 21.37b)
Taxrate = 24.42% (264.2m / 1.08b)
NOPAT = 4.93b (EBIT 6.52b * (1 - 24.42%))
Current Ratio = 0.60 (Total Current Assets 2.51b / Total Current Liabilities 4.17b)
Debt / Equity = 1.00 (Debt 21.37b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 21.27b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.50 (Net Debt 20.91b / EBITDA 8.35b)
Debt / FCF = 6.07 (Net Debt 20.91b / FCF TTM 3.44b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 21.37b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.45% (Net Income 4.30b / Total Assets 57.65b)
RoE = 20.11% (Net Income TTM 4.30b / Total Stockholder Equity 21.37b)
RoCE = 15.94% (EBIT 6.52b / Capital Employed (Equity 21.37b + L.T.Debt 19.55b))
RoIC = 11.69% (NOPAT 4.93b / Invested Capital 42.18b)
WACC = 6.56% (E(82.19b)/V(103.56b) * Re(8.12%) + D(21.37b)/V(103.56b) * Rd(0.76%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 8.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.96%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.55% ; FCFE base≈3.50b ; Y1≈3.39b ; Y5≈3.37b
Fair Price DCF = 96.15 (DCF Value 59.18b / Shares Outstanding 615.5m; 5y FCF grow -4.34% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 15.52 | EPS CAGR: 1.83% | SUE: 0.99 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -14.40 | Revenue CAGR: -5.88% | SUE: -0.80 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for CNI Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle