(CNQ) Canadian Natural Resources - Overview
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas E&P | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 101.553m USD | Total Return: 57.7% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 382M
EPS Trend: -94.3%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 71.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Beneish M-Score -1.18 > -1.5 - likely earnings manipulation
Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
Idiosyncratic Leader, Confidence
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) is a senior oil and natural gas production company with core operations in Western Canada, the North Sea, and Offshore Africa. The company manages a diversified portfolio of assets, including synthetic crude oil, bitumen, light and medium crude, and natural gas liquids. Its business model is characterized by a high proportion of long-life, low-decline assets, particularly in the oil sands, which require high initial capital investment but offer stable production profiles over several decades.
The company maintains integrated midstream infrastructure, including pipeline systems and power generation assets, to support its upstream activities. In the Canadian energy sector, companies often utilize thermal recovery and mining techniques to extract heavy oil, requiring specialized infrastructure for processing and transport. Evaluating the long-term sustainability of these capital-intensive projects on ValueRay can provide deeper insights into the companys valuation. Headquartered in Calgary, the firm has operated under its current name since 1975 and remains a central figure in the North American energy landscape.
- Oil sands production efficiency and low decline rates drive long-term free cash flow
- WTI-WCS price differentials significantly impact heavy crude revenue and profit margins
- Capital allocation policy targets 100% of free cash flow returns to shareholders
- Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion improves market access and reduces regional price discounting
- Natural gas price volatility affects earnings from Western Canadian sedimentary basin operations
| Net Income: 9.71b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.74 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.27% < 20% (prev -3.15%; Δ 2.88% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 13.2b > Net Income 9.71b |
| Net Debt (17.7b) to EBITDA (23.0b): 0.77 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.98 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (2.10b) vs 12m ago -0.61% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 30.76% > 18% (prev 0.27%; Δ 3.05k% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 53.45% > 50% (prev 52.82%; Δ 0.63% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.97 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 23.0b / Interest Expense TTM 894.8m) |
| A: -0.00 (Total Current Assets 6.73b - Total Current Liabilities 6.84b) / Total Assets 67.6b |
| B: 0.35 (Retained Earnings 23.4b / Total Assets 67.6b) |
| C: 0.18 (EBIT TTM 13.4b / Avg Total Assets 76.2b) |
| D: 0.90 (Book Value of Equity 32.1b / Total Liabilities 35.5b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.25 = A |
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 3.77b/3.86b, Revenue 40.7b/44.8b) |
| GMI: 0.88 (GM 30.76% / 27.20%) |
| AQI: 4.38 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.01) |
| SGI: 0.91 (Revenue 40.7b / 44.8b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 9.71b - CFO 13.2b) / TA 67.6b) |
| Beneish M = -1.18 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of May 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 46.83 with a total of 4,445,633 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.33%,
over one month by +4.02%,
over three months by +9.67% and
over the past year by +57.73%.
Canadian Natural Resources has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.73. Therefore, it is recommended to hold CNQ.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 45.9 | -1.9% |
Market Cap CAD = 140b (102b USD * 1.3805 USD.CAD)
P/E Trailing = 11.7893
P/E Forward = 11.8624
P/S = 2.6287
P/B = 3.1508
P/EG = 3.4186
Revenue TTM = 40.7b CAD
EBIT TTM = 13.4b CAD
EBITDA TTM = 23.0b CAD
Long Term Debt = 16.2b CAD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 579.5m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 18.2b CAD (corrected: LT Debt 16.2b + ST Debt 579.5m) + Leases 1.49b
Net Debt = 17.7b CAD (calculated: Debt 18.2b - CCE 580.9m)
Enterprise Value = 158b CAD (140b + Debt 18.2b - CCE 580.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.97 (Ebit TTM 13.4b / Interest Expense TTM 894.8m)
EV/FCF = 25.53x (Enterprise Value 158b / FCF TTM 6.18b)
FCF Yield = 3.92% (FCF TTM 6.18b / Enterprise Value 158b)
FCF Margin = 15.18% (FCF TTM 6.18b / Revenue TTM 40.7b)
Net Margin = 23.84% (Net Income TTM 9.71b / Revenue TTM 40.7b)
Gross Margin = 30.76% ((Revenue TTM 40.7b - Cost of Revenue TTM 28.2b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 32.09% (prev 19.99%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.33 (Enterprise Value 158b / Total Assets 67.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.91% (Interest Expense 894.8m / Debt 18.2b)
Taxrate = 22.08% (383.0m / 1.73b)
NOPAT = 10.4b (EBIT 13.4b * (1 - 22.08%))
Current Ratio = 0.98 (Total Current Assets 6.73b / Total Current Liabilities 6.84b)
Debt / Equity = 0.57 (Debt 18.2b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 32.1b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.77 (Net Debt 17.7b / EBITDA 23.0b)
Debt / FCF = 2.86 (Net Debt 17.7b / FCF TTM 6.18b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 39.5b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.75% (Net Income 9.71b / Total Assets 67.6b)
RoE = 24.56% (Net Income TTM 9.71b / Total Stockholder Equity 39.5b)
RoCE = 24.04% (EBIT 13.4b / Capital Employed (Equity 39.5b + L.T.Debt 16.2b))
RoIC = 17.15% (NOPAT 10.4b / Invested Capital 60.9b)
WACC = 7.13% (E(140b)/V(158b) * Re(7.56%) + D(18.2b)/V(158b) * Rd(4.91%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 7.56% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -86.67 | Cagr: -1.72%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈7.40b ; Y1≈6.49b ; Y5≈5.25b
[DCF] Fair Price = 31.90 (EV 84.2b - Net Debt 17.7b = Equity 66.5b / Shares 2.09b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -94.33 | EPS CAGR: -30.56% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 71.00 | Revenue CAGR: 4.17% | SUE: 0.32 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.91 | Chg30d=+35.13% | Revisions=+33% | Analysts=7
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.52 | Chg30d=+24.34% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.03 | Chg30d=+17.10% | Revisions=+43% | GrowthEPS=+69.9% | GrowthRev=+18.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.10 | Chg30d=+12.70% | Revisions=+43% | GrowthEPS=-15.5% | GrowthRev=-9.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +43%