(CNQ) Canadian Natural Resources - Ratings and Ratios
Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Natural Gas Liquids, Synthetic Crude Oil, Bitumen
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 6.23% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 23.91% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 11.27% |
| Payout Consistency | 89.9% |
| Payout Ratio | 46.0% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 27.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 45.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 3.42% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.11 |
| Alpha | -12.49 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.25 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.477 |
| Beta | 0.799 |
| Beta Downside | 0.969 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 35.85% |
| Mean DD | 11.83% |
| Median DD | 11.36% |
Description: CNQ Canadian Natural Resources September 26, 2025
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNQ) is an integrated upstream and midstream oil and gas company that acquires, explores, develops, produces, markets, and sells crude oil, natural gas, and natural-gas liquids (NGLs) across three geographic segments: Western Canada, the United Kingdom sector of the North Sea, and offshore Africa.
The firm’s product slate includes light and medium crude, primary heavy crude, Pelican Lake heavy crude, bitumen (thermal oil), and synthetic crude oil (SCO). Its midstream footprint features two crude-oil pipeline systems and a 50 % working interest in an 84-MW cogeneration plant at Primrose, providing on-site power and steam for its oil-sands operations.
Key operating metrics from the most recent fiscal year (2023) show net production of approximately 1.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), a cash flow conversion of 85 %, and capital expenditures of US$5.4 billion, of which roughly US$2.1 billion was allocated to oil-sands expansion projects. The company’s exposure to natural-gas price volatility is modest (≈ 15 % of total revenue) and is partially hedged through long-term contracts.
Sector-wide drivers that materially affect CNQ’s outlook include the differential between Canadian Western Canadian Select (WCS) and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices, which has averaged a 30-cent discount in 2023, and OPEC-plus production decisions that set the global oil price floor. Regulatory risk in Alberta-particularly potential carbon-pricing increases-remains a key uncertainty for the oil-sands segment.
For a data-rich, quantitative assessment of CNQ’s valuation relative to these drivers, you may find it worthwhile to explore the analyst tools on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income (6.66b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 2.58b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.10 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -3.52pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -2.63% (prev -3.05%; Δ 0.41pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 (>3.0%) and CFO 14.77b > Net Income 6.66b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (17.16b) to EBITDA (17.63b) ratio: 0.97 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.86 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (2.07b) change vs 12m ago -3.00% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 31.02% (prev 27.05%; Δ 3.97pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 53.48% (prev 54.77%; Δ -1.29pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 10.83 (EBITDA TTM 17.63b / Interest Expense TTM 812.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.69
| (A) -0.01 = (Total Current Assets 7.18b - Total Current Liabilities 8.31b) / Total Assets 85.59b |
| (B) 0.34 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 28.91b / Total Assets 85.59b |
| (C) 0.11 = EBIT TTM 8.79b / Avg Total Assets 80.33b |
| (D) 0.90 = Book Value of Equity 40.46b / Total Liabilities 45.13b |
| Total Rating: 2.69 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 71.71
| 1. Piotroski 6.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 7.08% |
| 3. FCF Margin 18.93% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.43 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.97 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 10.94)% |
| 7. RoE 16.47% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -19.00% |
| 9. EPS Trend -84.55% |
What is the price of CNQ shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.91%, over one month by +5.78%, over three months by +7.91% and over the past year by +4.72%.
Is CNQ a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 8
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CNQ price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 38 | 13.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 38 | 13.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 37.9 | 13.8% |
CNQ Fundamental Data Overview November 25, 2025
P/E Trailing = 14.8578
P/E Forward = 16.5837
P/S = 1.8044
P/B = 2.4171
P/EG = 12.75
Beta = 1.087
Revenue TTM = 42.97b CAD
EBIT TTM = 8.79b CAD
EBITDA TTM = 17.63b CAD
Long Term Debt = 16.44b CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 829.0m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.27b CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 17.16b CAD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 114.91b CAD (97.76b + Debt 17.27b - CCE 113.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 10.83 (Ebit TTM 8.79b / Interest Expense TTM 812.0m)
FCF Yield = 7.08% (FCF TTM 8.13b / Enterprise Value 114.91b)
FCF Margin = 18.93% (FCF TTM 8.13b / Revenue TTM 42.97b)
Net Margin = 15.49% (Net Income TTM 6.66b / Revenue TTM 42.97b)
Gross Margin = 31.02% ((Revenue TTM 42.97b - Cost of Revenue TTM 29.64b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 48.39% (prev 23.87%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.34 (Enterprise Value 114.91b / Total Assets 85.59b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.54% (Interest Expense 93.0m / Debt 17.27b)
Taxrate = -23.20% (negative due to tax credits) (-113.0m / 487.0m)
NOPAT = 10.83b (EBIT 8.79b * (1 - -23.20%)) [negative tax rate / tax credits]
Current Ratio = 0.86 (Total Current Assets 7.18b / Total Current Liabilities 8.31b)
Debt / Equity = 0.43 (Debt 17.27b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 40.46b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.97 (Net Debt 17.16b / EBITDA 17.63b)
Debt / FCF = 2.11 (Net Debt 17.16b / FCF TTM 8.13b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 40.42b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.78% (Net Income 6.66b / Total Assets 85.59b)
RoE = 16.47% (Net Income TTM 6.66b / Total Stockholder Equity 40.42b)
RoCE = 15.46% (EBIT 8.79b / Capital Employed (Equity 40.42b + L.T.Debt 16.44b))
RoIC = 18.65% (NOPAT 10.83b / Invested Capital 58.07b)
WACC = 7.71% (E(97.76b)/V(115.02b) * Re(8.96%) + D(17.27b)/V(115.02b) * Rd(0.54%) * (1-Tc(-0.23)))
Discount Rate = 8.96% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.57%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.89% ; FCFE base≈8.79b ; Y1≈8.73b ; Y5≈9.13b
Fair Price DCF = 65.84 (DCF Value 137.14b / Shares Outstanding 2.08b; 5y FCF grow -1.45% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -84.55 | EPS CAGR: -22.25% | SUE: 0.69 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -19.00 | Revenue CAGR: -1.81% | SUE: 0.02 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for CNQ Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle