COP Stock Analysis: ConocoPhillips | NYSE
Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 163.046m USD | 12M Return: 52.4% | US20825C1045 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 843M
EPS Trend: -82.6%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 57.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is an independent exploration and production (E&P) company that explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, LNG, and natural gas liquids. Founded in 1917 and headquartered in Houston, Texas, the company operates through five reporting segments: Alaska, Lower 48, Canada, Europe/Middle East/North Africa, and Asia Pacific.
Its asset base spans unconventional plays in North America, conventional fields in Europe, Asia, and Australia, oil sands in Canada, global LNG developments, and an inventory of exploration prospects. The company conducts operations in countries including the United States, Canada, Norway, the United Kingdom, Australia, China, Malaysia, Libya, Equatorial Guinea, and Singapore.
As a pure-play upstream operator within the GICS Energy sector, ConocoPhillips focuses exclusively on hydrocarbon resource development and does not own downstream refining or retail fuel assets. It is classified as a large-cap stock with a market capitalization of approximately $133.6 billion and has been publicly traded since its 1981 IPO.
- Oil prices swing quarterly earnings on Lower 48 production volumes
- LNG export capacity expansion boosts Asia Pacific segment growth
- Capital returns program sustains buybacks and variable dividends
| Net Income: 9.28b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.16 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.12 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 10.64% < 20% (prev 5.12%; Δ 5.52% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 21.9b > Net Income 9.28b |
| Net Debt (16.4b) to EBITDA (27.8b): 0.59 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.54 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.21b) vs 12m ago -3.55% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 27.68% > 18% (prev 27.83%; Δ -0.15% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 51.32% > 50% (prev 47.04%; Δ 4.28% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 13.36 > 6 (EBIT TTM 15.8b / Interest Expense TTM 1.18b) |
| A: 0.05 (Total Current Assets 19.2b - Total Current Liabilities 12.5b) / Total Assets 124b |
| B: 0.59 (Retained Earnings 72.9b / Total Assets 124b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 15.8b / Avg Total Assets 123b) |
| D: 1.11 (Book Value of Equity 65.3b / Total Liabilities 58.9b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.29 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.11 (Receivables 6.96b/5.70b, Revenue 63.3b/57.7b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 27.83% / 27.68%) |
| AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.11 / AQ_t-1 0.11) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 63.3b / 57.7b) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI 9.28b - CFO 21.9b) / TA 124b) |
| Beneish M = -2.86 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 135.04 with a total of 5,001,885 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.92%, over one month by +10.49%, over three months by +14.34% and over the past year by +52.40%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 130.70 (which is 3.2% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
ConocoPhillips has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.15. Therefore, it is recommended to buy COP.
- StrongBuy: 13
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 145.3 | 7.6% |
P/E Trailing = 18.1444
P/E Forward = 13.5318
P/S = 2.5294
P/B = 2.5036
P/EG = 1.1522
Revenue TTM = 63.3b USD
EBIT TTM = 15.8b USD
EBITDA TTM = 27.8b USD
Long Term Debt = 22.8b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 462.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 24.1b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 801.0m
Net Debt = 16.4b USD (calculated: Debt 24.1b - CCE 7.69b)
Enterprise Value = 179b USD (163b + Debt 24.1b - CCE 7.69b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 13.36 (Ebit TTM 15.8b / Interest Expense TTM 1.18b)
EV/FCF = 9.16x (Enterprise Value 179b / FCF TTM 19.6b)
FCF Yield = 10.92% (FCF TTM 19.6b / Enterprise Value 179b)
FCF Margin = 30.93% (FCF TTM 19.6b / Revenue TTM 63.3b)
Net Margin = 14.65% (Net Income TTM 9.28b / Revenue TTM 63.3b)
Gross Margin = 27.68% ((Revenue TTM 63.3b - Cost of Revenue TTM 45.8b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 36.72% (prev 27.26%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.44 (Enterprise Value 179b / Total Assets 124b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.91% (Interest Expense 1.18b / Debt 24.1b)
Taxrate = 36.50% (5.34b / 14.6b)
NOPAT = 10.0b (EBIT 15.8b * (1 - 36.50%))
Current Ratio = 1.54 (Total Current Assets 19.2b / Total Current Liabilities 12.5b)
Debt / Equity = 0.37 (Debt 24.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 65.3b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.59 (Net Debt 16.4b / EBITDA 27.8b)
Debt / FCF = 0.84 (Net Debt 16.4b / FCF TTM 19.6b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 64.8b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.52% (Net Income 9.28b / Total Assets 124b)
RoE = 14.32% (Net Income TTM 9.28b / Total Stockholder Equity 64.8b)
RoCE = 18.03% (EBIT 15.8b / Capital Employed (Equity 64.8b + L.T.Debt 22.8b))
RoIC = 9.20% (NOPAT 10.0b / Invested Capital 109b)
WACC = 5.82% (E(163b)/V(187b) * Re(6.22%) + D(24.1b)/V(187b) * Rd(4.91%) * (1-Tc(0.37)))
Discount Rate = 6.22% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 55.33 | Cagr: 1.27%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈14.5b ; Y1≈16.7b ; Y5≈24.5b
[DCF] Fair Price = 293.3 (EV 369b - Net Debt 16.4b = Equity 352b / Shares 1.20b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -82.57 | EPS CAGR: -11.54% | SUE: 2.96 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 57.62 | Revenue CAGR: 2.78% | SUE: -0.73 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.62 | Chg30d=+9.92% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=16
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=10.44 | Chg30d=+9.95% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+69.5% | GrowthRev=+17.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=9.53 | Chg30d=+6.28% | Revisions=-7% | GrowthEPS=-8.7% | GrowthRev=-7.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +13% (up=16, down=12)