COP Stock Analysis: ConocoPhillips | NYSE
Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 162.733m USD | 12M Return: 56.8% | US20825C1045 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 1.01B
EPS Trend: -39.4%
Qual. Beats: 3
Rev. Trend: 83.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.9 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is a Houston-based, large-cap independent exploration and production (E&P) company founded in 1917. Its core business spans the upstream oil and gas value chain-exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, LNG, and natural gas liquids. Operations are organized across five geographic segments: Alaska, Lower 48, Canada, Europe/Middle East/North Africa, and Asia Pacific, giving the company a geographically diversified upstream footprint.
The companys asset base is notably diversified by resource type, including North American unconventional plays, conventional assets across multiple continents, Canadian oil sands, global LNG developments, and a portfolio of exploration prospects. As a pure-play E&P (distinct from integrated majors like ExxonMobil or Chevron), ConocoPhillips focuses exclusively on upstream activities rather than downstream refining or petrochemicals, which typically ties its financial performance more directly to commodity prices for crude oil and natural gas.
- Oil price swings drive upstream revenue and margins
- Permian production growth boosts Lower 48 segment output
- Shareholder returns accelerate via buybacks and variable dividend
| Net Income: 11.6b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.03 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 10.51% < 20% (prev 6.48%; Δ 4.03% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 23.2b > Net Income 11.6b |
| Net Debt (14.1b) to EBITDA (30.6b): 0.46 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.52 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.20b) vs 12m ago -4.09% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.66% > 18% (prev 27.43%; Δ 7.23% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 54.52% > 50% (prev 48.82%; Δ 5.70% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 18.53 > 6 (EBIT TTM 18.7b / Interest Expense TTM 1.01b) |
| A: 0.06 (Total Current Assets 20.9b - Total Current Liabilities 13.7b) / Total Assets 126b |
| B: 0.60 (Retained Earnings 75.9b / Total Assets 126b) |
| C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 18.7b / Avg Total Assets 124b) |
| D: 1.10 (Book Value of Equity 66.0b / Total Liabilities 60.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.50 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.22 (Receivables 7.92b/5.74b, Revenue 67.7b/59.8b) |
| GMI: 0.79 (GM 27.43% / 34.66%) |
| AQI: 1.04 (AQ_t 0.11 / AQ_t-1 0.11) |
| SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 67.7b / 59.8b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 11.6b - CFO 23.2b) / TA 126b) |
| Beneish M = -2.93 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of November 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 137.86 with a total of 4,760,939 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.67%, over one month by +0.22%, over three months by +10.21% and over the past year by +56.80%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 131.60 (which is 4.5% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
ConocoPhillips has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.10. Therefore, it is recommended to buy COP.
- StrongBuy: 15
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 151.6 | 9.9% |
P/E Trailing = 18.1339
P/E Forward = 12.87
P/S = 2.5246
P/B = 2.5174
P/EG = 1.0094
Revenue TTM = 67.7b USD
EBIT TTM = 18.7b USD
EBITDA TTM = 30.6b USD
Long Term Debt = 22.4b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 878.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 24.1b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 801.0m
Net Debt = 14.1b USD (calculated: Debt 24.1b - CCE 9.93b)
Enterprise Value = 177b USD (163b + Debt 24.1b - CCE 9.93b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 18.53 (Ebit TTM 18.7b / Interest Expense TTM 1.01b)
EV/FCF = 15.91x (Enterprise Value 177b / FCF TTM 11.1b)
FCF Yield = 6.28% (FCF TTM 11.1b / Enterprise Value 177b)
FCF Margin = 16.40% (FCF TTM 11.1b / Revenue TTM 67.7b)
Net Margin = 17.06% (Net Income TTM 11.6b / Revenue TTM 67.7b)
Gross Margin = 34.66% ((Revenue TTM 67.7b - Cost of Revenue TTM 44.3b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 49.25% (prev 36.72%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.40 (Enterprise Value 177b / Total Assets 126b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.19% (Interest Expense 1.01b / Debt 24.1b)
Taxrate = 34.60% (6.12b / 17.7b)
NOPAT = 12.2b (EBIT 18.7b * (1 - 34.60%))
Current Ratio = 1.52 (Total Current Assets 20.9b / Total Current Liabilities 13.7b)
Debt / Equity = 0.36 (Debt 24.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 66.0b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.46 (Net Debt 14.1b / EBITDA 30.6b)
Debt / FCF = 1.27 (Net Debt 14.1b / FCF TTM 11.1b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 65.1b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.30% (Net Income 11.6b / Total Assets 126b)
RoE = 17.75% (Net Income TTM 11.6b / Total Stockholder Equity 65.1b)
RoCE = 21.35% (EBIT 18.7b / Capital Employed (Equity 65.1b + L.T.Debt 22.4b))
RoIC = 11.12% (NOPAT 12.2b / Invested Capital 110b)
WACC = 5.39% (E(163b)/V(187b) * Re(5.78%) + D(24.1b)/V(187b) * Rd(4.19%) * (1-Tc(0.35)))
Discount Rate = 5.78% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 26.82 | Cagr: 0.97%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈9.50b ; Y1≈10.9b ; Y5≈16.0b
[DCF] Fair Price = 189.1 (EV 241b - Net Debt 14.1b = Equity 227b / Shares 1.20b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -39.42 | EPS CAGR: -5.87% | SUE: 1.90 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 83.15 | Revenue CAGR: 5.93% | SUE: 0.53 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=3.02 | Chg30d=+21.25% | Revisions=+71% | Analysts=22
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=11.46 | Chg30d=+8.98% | Revisions=+78% | GrowthEPS=+86.1% | GrowthRev=+19.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=10.92 | Chg30d=+13.63% | Revisions=+71% | GrowthEPS=-4.7% | GrowthRev=-3.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +81% (up=51, down=4)