COP Stock Analysis: ConocoPhillips | NYSE
Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 133.647m USD | 12M Return: 19.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 844M
EPS Trend: -96.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: -20.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
Average return per month, with how dependable it is below — did the month move the same way every year (high) or randomly (low). Above 60 is a pattern worth trusting; under 40 is noise.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is an independent exploration and production (E&P) company that explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, LNG, and natural gas liquids. Founded in 1917 and headquartered in Houston, Texas, the company operates through five reporting segments: Alaska, Lower 48, Canada, Europe/Middle East/North Africa, and Asia Pacific.
Its asset base spans unconventional plays in North America, conventional fields in Europe, Asia, and Australia, oil sands in Canada, global LNG developments, and an inventory of exploration prospects. The company conducts operations in countries including the United States, Canada, Norway, the United Kingdom, Australia, China, Malaysia, Libya, Equatorial Guinea, and Singapore.
As a pure-play upstream operator within the GICS Energy sector, ConocoPhillips focuses exclusively on hydrocarbon resource development and does not own downstream refining or retail fuel assets. It is classified as a large-cap stock with a market capitalization of approximately $133.6 billion and has been publicly traded since its 1981 IPO.
- Oil prices swing quarterly earnings on Lower 48 production volumes
- LNG export capacity expansion boosts Asia Pacific segment growth
- Capital returns program sustains buybacks and variable dividends
| Net Income: 7.32b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.55 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 6.25% < 20% (prev 6.25%; Δ 0.00% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 18.0b > Net Income 7.32b |
| Net Debt (17.8b) to EBITDA (24.5b): 0.73 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.29 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.22b) vs 12m ago -3.92% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 29.18% > 18% (prev 29.33%; Δ -0.14% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 47.22% > 50% (prev 46.10%; Δ 1.12% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 11.21 > 6 (EBIT TTM 12.7b / Interest Expense TTM 1.13b) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 16.2b - Total Current Liabilities 12.6b) / Total Assets 123b |
| B: 0.57 (Retained Earnings 70.0b / Total Assets 123b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 12.7b / Avg Total Assets 123b) |
| D: 1.11 (Book Value of Equity 64.5b / Total Liabilities 58.2b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.91 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.08 (Receivables 7.05b/6.40b, Revenue 58.3b/57.3b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 29.33% / 29.18%) |
| AQI: 1.04 (AQ_t 0.11 / AQ_t-1 0.10) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 58.3b / 57.3b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 7.32b - CFO 18.0b) / TA 123b) |
| Beneish M = -2.93 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 103.96 with a total of 10,026,856 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.47%, over one month by -10.05%, over three months by -20.66% and over the past year by +19.69%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 99.40 (which is 4.4% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
ConocoPhillips has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.15. Therefore, it is recommended to buy COP.
- StrongBuy: 13
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 142.8 | 37.3% |
P/E Trailing = 18.5932
P/E Forward = 10.4603
P/S = 2.2508
P/B = 2.0337
P/EG = 0.9136
Revenue TTM = 58.3b USD
EBIT TTM = 12.7b USD
EBITDA TTM = 24.5b USD
Long Term Debt = 22.3b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.06b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 24.1b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 801.0m
Net Debt = 17.8b USD (calculated: Debt 24.1b - CCE 6.36b)
Enterprise Value = 151b USD (134b + Debt 24.1b - CCE 6.36b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 11.21 (Ebit TTM 12.7b / Interest Expense TTM 1.13b)
EV/FCF = 9.84x (Enterprise Value 151b / FCF TTM 15.4b)
FCF Yield = 10.16% (FCF TTM 15.4b / Enterprise Value 151b)
FCF Margin = 26.38% (FCF TTM 15.4b / Revenue TTM 58.3b)
Net Margin = 12.56% (Net Income TTM 7.32b / Revenue TTM 58.3b)
Gross Margin = 29.18% ((Revenue TTM 58.3b - Cost of Revenue TTM 41.3b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 46.69% (prev 19.64%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.23 (Enterprise Value 151b / Total Assets 123b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.69% (Interest Expense 1.13b / Debt 24.1b)
Taxrate = 36.62% (4.23b / 11.6b)
NOPAT = 8.04b (EBIT 12.7b * (1 - 36.62%))
Current Ratio = 1.29 (Total Current Assets 16.2b / Total Current Liabilities 12.6b)
Debt / Equity = 0.37 (Debt 24.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 64.5b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.73 (Net Debt 17.8b / EBITDA 24.5b)
Debt / FCF = 1.15 (Net Debt 17.8b / FCF TTM 15.4b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 64.9b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.93% (Net Income 7.32b / Total Assets 123b)
RoE = 11.29% (Net Income TTM 7.32b / Total Stockholder Equity 64.9b)
RoCE = 14.56% (EBIT 12.7b / Capital Employed (Equity 64.9b + L.T.Debt 22.3b))
RoIC = 7.42% (NOPAT 8.04b / Invested Capital 108b)
WACC = 6.31% (E(134b)/V(158b) * Re(6.91%) + D(24.1b)/V(158b) * Rd(4.69%) * (1-Tc(0.37)))
Discount Rate = 6.91% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 28.89 | Cagr: 1.30%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈12.7b ; Y1≈14.6b ; Y5≈21.4b
[DCF] Fair Price = 250.1 (EV 322b - Net Debt 17.8b = Equity 305b / Shares 1.22b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -96.29 | EPS CAGR: -15.90% | SUE: 2.22 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -20.13 | Revenue CAGR: -1.18% | SUE: -0.13 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.66 | Chg30d=+9.10% | Revisions=+47% | Analysts=17
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.89 | Chg30d=+4.58% | Revisions=+60% | GrowthEPS=+60.6% | GrowthRev=+16.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=9.20 | Chg30d=+2.43% | Revisions=+44% | GrowthEPS=-7.0% | GrowthRev=-7.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +60%