(COP) ConocoPhillips - Ratings and Ratios
Crude Oil, Bitumen, Natural Gas, Lng, Natural Gas Liquids
COP EPS (Earnings per Share)
COP Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 25.5% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 42.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 0.21% |
| Reward | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.53 |
| Alpha Jensen | -25.47 |
| Character | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.524 |
| Beta | 0.327 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 36.52% |
| Mean DD | 17.28% |
Description: COP ConocoPhillips September 25, 2025
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is an integrated upstream company that explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, LNG, and natural-gas liquids across a diversified global footprint.
The firm’s operations are organized into six geographic segments: Alaska; Lower 48 (contiguous United States); Canada; Europe, Middle East & North Africa (EMENA); Asia Pacific; and “Other International,” which captures its smaller-scale assets and joint-venture interests.
Its asset portfolio blends unconventional shale plays (e.g., the Permian Basin and Bakken) with conventional fields in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia, plus a growing presence in global LNG projects and Canadian oil-sands operations.
ConocoPhillips serves a broad customer base that includes the United States, Canada, China, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Malaysia, Norway, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and other international markets.
Founded in 1917 and headquartered in Houston, Texas, the company is classified under the GICS sub-industry “Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.”
**Key recent metrics (as of Q2 2024):**
• Net production averaged 1.2 million boe/d, with crude oil accounting for roughly 70 % of the mix.
• Adjusted operating cash flow reached $5.8 billion, supporting a dividend yield of ~3.2 % and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.1×.
• Capital expenditures were disciplined at $3.4 billion, emphasizing high-return projects and the de-risking of lower-margin assets.
**Sector drivers that materially affect COP’s outlook:**
• OPEC+ production policies and global crude-price volatility remain the primary macro-risk, with Brent hovering around $85–$90 per barrel in early 2025.
• The accelerating transition to lower-carbon energy sources is pressuring upstream capital allocation, while LNG demand growth-particularly in Europe and Asia-offers a counterbalancing revenue stream.
• Regulatory and ESG considerations, especially around methane emissions and oil-sands development, can affect permitting timelines and cost structures.
For a deeper quantitative assessment of COP’s valuation relative to peers, the ValueRay platform offers a data-driven toolkit you may find useful.
COP Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 107,297m |
| Sub-Industry | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production |
| IPO / Inception | 1981-12-31 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -28.0% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.37 of 5 |
COP Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.62% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 7.24% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 10.50% |
| Payout Consistency | 95.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 44.8% |
COP Growth Ratios
| CAGR | -9.41% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | -0.26 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | -0.54 |
| Current Volume | 4777.8k |
| Average Volume | 6071.4k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income (8.83b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 3.61b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.14 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 4.01pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 6.44% (prev 5.85%; Δ 0.59pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.16 (>3.0%) and CFO 19.93b > Net Income 8.83b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (18.22b) to EBITDA (25.75b) ratio: 0.71 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.32 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (1.25b) change vs 12m ago 7.19% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 29.97% (prev 30.11%; Δ -0.15pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 54.93% (prev 56.90%; Δ -1.96pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 12.89 (EBITDA TTM 25.75b / Interest Expense TTM 1.12b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 4.06
| (A) 0.03 = (Total Current Assets 15.88b - Total Current Liabilities 12.01b) / Total Assets 122.47b |
| (B) 0.56 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 68.46b / Total Assets 122.47b |
| (C) 0.13 = EBIT TTM 14.51b / Avg Total Assets 109.59b |
| (D) 1.08 = Book Value of Equity 62.41b / Total Liabilities 57.55b |
| Total Rating: 4.06 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 68.22
| 1. Piotroski 5.50pt = 0.50 |
| 2. FCF Yield 13.35% = 5.0 |
| 3. FCF Margin 27.61% = 6.90 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.36 = 2.44 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.71 = 2.12 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 3.61)% = 4.51 |
| 7. RoE 13.56% = 1.13 |
| 8. Rev. Trend -7.24% = -0.54 |
| 9. EPS Trend -76.73% = -3.84 |
What is the price of COP shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.39%, over one month by +0.72%, over three months by -5.97% and over the past year by -18.03%.
Is ConocoPhillips a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of COP is around 75.09 USD . This means that COP is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -16.03%.
Is COP a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 14
- Buy: 13
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the COP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 113.5 | 27% |
| Analysts Target Price | 113.5 | 27% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 81.9 | -8.5% |
COP Fundamental Data Overview November 11, 2025
P/E Trailing = 12.2641
P/E Forward = 14.1044
P/S = 1.7509
P/B = 1.7786
P/EG = 9.9261
Beta = 0.327
Revenue TTM = 60.20b USD
EBIT TTM = 14.51b USD
EBITDA TTM = 25.75b USD
Long Term Debt = 22.64b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.02b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 23.48b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 18.22b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 124.52b USD (107.30b + Debt 23.48b - CCE 6.26b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 12.89 (Ebit TTM 14.51b / Interest Expense TTM 1.12b)
FCF Yield = 13.35% (FCF TTM 16.62b / Enterprise Value 124.52b)
FCF Margin = 27.61% (FCF TTM 16.62b / Revenue TTM 60.20b)
Net Margin = 14.67% (Net Income TTM 8.83b / Revenue TTM 60.20b)
Gross Margin = 29.97% ((Revenue TTM 60.20b - Cost of Revenue TTM 42.16b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 35.82% (prev 24.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.02 (Enterprise Value 124.52b / Total Assets 122.47b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.95% (Interest Expense 223.0m / Debt 23.48b)
Taxrate = 41.05% (1.20b / 2.93b)
NOPAT = 8.55b (EBIT 14.51b * (1 - 41.05%))
Current Ratio = 1.32 (Total Current Assets 15.88b / Total Current Liabilities 12.01b)
Debt / Equity = 0.36 (Debt 23.48b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 64.92b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.71 (Net Debt 18.22b / EBITDA 25.75b)
Debt / FCF = 1.10 (Net Debt 18.22b / FCF TTM 16.62b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 65.13b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.21% (Net Income 8.83b / Total Assets 122.47b)
RoE = 13.56% (Net Income TTM 8.83b / Total Stockholder Equity 65.13b)
RoCE = 16.53% (EBIT 14.51b / Capital Employed (Equity 65.13b + L.T.Debt 22.64b))
RoIC = 9.63% (NOPAT 8.55b / Invested Capital 88.77b)
WACC = 6.02% (E(107.30b)/V(130.78b) * Re(7.22%) + D(23.48b)/V(130.78b) * Rd(0.95%) * (1-Tc(0.41)))
Discount Rate = 7.22% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 2.37%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 76.76% ; FCFE base≈13.67b ; Y1≈12.39b ; Y5≈10.79b
Fair Price DCF = 157.6 (DCF Value 194.76b / Shares Outstanding 1.24b; 5y FCF grow -11.66% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -76.73 | EPS CAGR: -17.25% | SUE: 2.55 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -7.24 | Revenue CAGR: -5.43% | SUE: 0.72 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for COP Stock
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