COP Stock Analysis: ConocoPhillips | NYSE
Oil & Gas E&P | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 152.642m USD | 12M Return: 40.6% | US20825C1045 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 854M
EPS Trend: -82.6%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 55.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is a Houston-based, large-cap independent exploration and production (E&P) company founded in 1917. Its core business spans the upstream oil and gas value chain-exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, LNG, and natural gas liquids. Operations are organized across five geographic segments: Alaska, Lower 48, Canada, Europe/Middle East/North Africa, and Asia Pacific, giving the company a geographically diversified upstream footprint.
The companys asset base is notably diversified by resource type, including North American unconventional plays, conventional assets across multiple continents, Canadian oil sands, global LNG developments, and a portfolio of exploration prospects. As a pure-play E&P (distinct from integrated majors like ExxonMobil or Chevron), ConocoPhillips focuses exclusively on upstream activities rather than downstream refining or petrochemicals, which typically ties its financial performance more directly to commodity prices for crude oil and natural gas.
- Oil price swings drive upstream revenue and margins
- Permian production growth boosts Lower 48 segment output
- Shareholder returns accelerate via buybacks and variable dividend
| Net Income: 9.28b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.16 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.12 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 10.64% < 20% (prev 5.11%; Δ 5.54% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 21.9b > Net Income 9.28b |
| Net Debt (16.4b) to EBITDA (27.8b): 0.59 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.54 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.21b) vs 12m ago -3.55% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 27.68% > 18% (prev 28.40%; Δ -0.73% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 51.32% > 50% (prev 47.14%; Δ 4.18% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 13.36 > 6 (EBIT TTM 15.8b / Interest Expense TTM 1.18b) |
| A: 0.05 (Total Current Assets 19.2b - Total Current Liabilities 12.5b) / Total Assets 124b |
| B: 0.59 (Retained Earnings 72.9b / Total Assets 124b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 15.8b / Avg Total Assets 123b) |
| D: 1.11 (Book Value of Equity 65.3b / Total Liabilities 58.9b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.29 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.11 (Receivables 6.96b/5.70b, Revenue 63.3b/57.8b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 28.40% / 27.68%) |
| AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.11 / AQ_t-1 0.11) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 63.3b / 57.8b) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI 9.28b - CFO 21.9b) / TA 124b) |
| Beneish M = -2.84 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 129.35 with a total of 5,839,171 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.12%, over one month by -4.21%, over three months by +25.71% and over the past year by +40.58%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 123.90 (which is 4.2% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
ConocoPhillips has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.26. Therefore, it is recommended to buy COP.
- StrongBuy: 15
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 146.1 | 12.9% |
P/E Trailing = 16.5658
P/E Forward = 12.7389
P/S = 2.368
P/B = 2.3547
P/EG = 1.0836
Revenue TTM = 63.3b USD
EBIT TTM = 15.8b USD
EBITDA TTM = 27.8b USD
Long Term Debt = 22.8b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 462.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 24.1b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 801.0m
Net Debt = 16.4b USD (calculated: Debt 24.1b - CCE 7.69b)
Enterprise Value = 169b USD (153b + Debt 24.1b - CCE 7.69b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 13.36 (Ebit TTM 15.8b / Interest Expense TTM 1.18b)
EV/FCF = 8.63x (Enterprise Value 169b / FCF TTM 19.6b)
FCF Yield = 11.59% (FCF TTM 19.6b / Enterprise Value 169b)
FCF Margin = 30.93% (FCF TTM 19.6b / Revenue TTM 63.3b)
Net Margin = 14.65% (Net Income TTM 9.28b / Revenue TTM 63.3b)
Gross Margin = 27.68% ((Revenue TTM 63.3b - Cost of Revenue TTM 45.8b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 36.72% (prev 27.26%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.36 (Enterprise Value 169b / Total Assets 124b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.91% (Interest Expense 1.18b / Debt 24.1b)
Taxrate = 36.50% (5.34b / 14.6b)
NOPAT = 10.0b (EBIT 15.8b * (1 - 36.50%))
Current Ratio = 1.54 (Total Current Assets 19.2b / Total Current Liabilities 12.5b)
Debt / Equity = 0.37 (Debt 24.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 65.3b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.59 (Net Debt 16.4b / EBITDA 27.8b)
Debt / FCF = 0.84 (Net Debt 16.4b / FCF TTM 19.6b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 64.8b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.52% (Net Income 9.28b / Total Assets 124b)
RoE = 14.32% (Net Income TTM 9.28b / Total Stockholder Equity 64.8b)
RoCE = 18.03% (EBIT 15.8b / Capital Employed (Equity 64.8b + L.T.Debt 22.8b))
RoIC = 9.20% (NOPAT 10.0b / Invested Capital 109b)
WACC = 5.87% (E(153b)/V(177b) * Re(6.30%) + D(24.1b)/V(177b) * Rd(4.91%) * (1-Tc(0.37)))
Discount Rate = 6.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 55.33 | Cagr: 1.27%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈14.5b ; Y1≈16.7b ; Y5≈24.5b
[DCF] Fair Price = 293.3 (EV 369b - Net Debt 16.4b = Equity 352b / Shares 1.20b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -82.57 | EPS CAGR: -11.54% | SUE: 2.96 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 55.05 | Revenue CAGR: 2.63% | SUE: -0.72 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.64 | Chg30d=+1.39% | Revisions=+35% | Analysts=21
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=10.59 | Chg30d=+1.88% | Revisions=+63% | GrowthEPS=+71.9% | GrowthRev=+16.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=9.66 | Chg30d=+1.99% | Revisions=+42% | GrowthEPS=-8.7% | GrowthRev=-6.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +53% (up=36, down=10)