CP Stock Analysis: Canadian Pacific Kansas City | NYSE
Railroads | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 73.517m USD | 12M Return: 12.5% | CA13646K1084 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 187M
EPS Trend: 92.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 83.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (NYSE: CP) is a Class I freight railroad operating a transcontinental network spanning Canada, the United States, and Mexico. Headquartered in Calgary and founded in 1881, the company runs approximately 20,000 miles of track connecting major business centers across North America. It adopted its current name in April 2023 following the merger with Kansas City Southern, making it the only railroad providing single-line service linking all three North American countries.
The companys operations are organized around three core traffic streams: bulk commodities (such as grain, coal, potash, fertilizers, and sulphur), merchandise freight (including forest products, energy, chemicals and plastics, metals, minerals, consumer products, and automotive), and intermodal traffic (retail goods moved in overseas containers). This diversified mix helps balance cyclical exposure across agricultural, industrial, and consumer end markets.
As a Class I carrier in the GICS Rail Transportation sub-industry, CP operates in a sector defined by high capital intensity, significant infrastructure barriers to entry, and an oligopolistic structure dominated by a handful of major North American railroads. The rail freight model benefits from strong operating leverage, as adding incremental traffic onto an existing network typically yields high incremental margins, while fuel efficiency and scale advantages tend to support competitive positioning against long-haul trucking.
- KCS merger synergies target operating ratio improvement
- Grain and potash bulk shipments drive revenue growth
- Mexico intermodal volumes benefit from nearshoring trend
| Net Income: 3.87b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.06 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -15.27% < 20% (prev -1.70%; Δ -13.57% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 6.00b > Net Income 3.87b |
| Net Debt (25.2b) to EBITDA (8.18b): 3.08 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.59 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (887.1m) vs 12m ago -4.08% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 53.40% > 18% (prev 52.32%; Δ 1.07% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 17.71% > 50% (prev 17.51%; Δ 0.20% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.10 > 6 (EBIT TTM 6.13b / Interest Expense TTM 1.00b) |
| A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 3.45b - Total Current Liabilities 5.81b) / Total Assets 89.3b |
| B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 19.7b / Total Assets 89.3b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 6.13b / Avg Total Assets 87.2b) |
| D: 1.12 (Book Value of Equity 46.6b / Total Liabilities 41.7b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.19 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.08 (Receivables 2.25b/2.00b, Revenue 15.4b/14.9b) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 52.32% / 53.40%) |
| AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.32 / AQ_t-1 0.32) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 15.4b / 14.9b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 3.87b - CFO 6.00b) / TA 89.3b) |
| Beneish M = -2.95 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 12, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 84.46 with a total of 1,305,866 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.72%, over one month by -6.02%, over three months by -6.29% and over the past year by +12.50%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 82.30 (which is 2.6% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Canadian Pacific Kansas City has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.20. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CP.
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 9
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 98.4 | 16.5% |
Market Cap CAD = 105b (73.5b USD * 1.4254 USD.CAD)
P/E Trailing = 27.4197
P/E Forward = 20.7469
P/S = 4.7587
P/B = 2.3218
P/EG = 2.2189
Revenue TTM = 15.4b CAD
EBIT TTM = 6.13b CAD
EBITDA TTM = 8.18b CAD
Long Term Debt = 22.2b CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.90b CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 25.6b CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 410.0m
Net Debt = 25.2b CAD (calculated: Debt 25.6b - CCE 366.0m)
Enterprise Value = 130b CAD (105b + Debt 25.6b - CCE 366.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.10 (Ebit TTM 6.13b / Interest Expense TTM 1.00b)
EV/FCF = 50.70x (Enterprise Value 130b / FCF TTM 2.56b)
FCF Yield = 1.97% (FCF TTM 2.56b / Enterprise Value 130b)
FCF Margin = 16.59% (FCF TTM 2.56b / Revenue TTM 15.4b)
Net Margin = 25.03% (Net Income TTM 3.87b / Revenue TTM 15.4b)
Gross Margin = 53.40% ((Revenue TTM 15.4b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.20b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.44% (prev 51.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.46 (Enterprise Value 130b / Total Assets 89.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.93% (Interest Expense 1.00b / Debt 25.6b)
Taxrate = 25.27% (1.31b / 5.17b)
NOPAT = 4.58b (EBIT 6.13b * (1 - 25.27%))
Current Ratio = 0.59 (Total Current Assets 3.45b / Total Current Liabilities 5.81b)
Debt / Equity = 0.55 (Debt 25.6b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 46.6b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.08 (Net Debt 25.2b / EBITDA 8.18b)
Debt / FCF = 9.83 (Net Debt 25.2b / FCF TTM 2.56b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 50.7b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.43% (Net Income 3.87b / Total Assets 89.3b)
RoE = 7.63% (Net Income TTM 3.87b / Total Stockholder Equity 50.7b)
RoCE = 8.40% (EBIT 6.13b / Capital Employed (Equity 50.7b + L.T.Debt 22.2b))
RoIC = 5.32% (NOPAT 4.58b / Invested Capital 86.0b)
WACC = 6.78% (E(105b)/V(130b) * Re(7.72%) + D(25.6b)/V(130b) * Rd(3.93%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 7.72% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -92.06 | Cagr: -2.28%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.77% ; FCFF base≈2.54b ; Y1≈2.60b ; Y5≈2.87b
[DCF] Fair Price = 21.95 (EV 44.5b - Net Debt 25.2b = Equity 19.3b / Shares 879.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 2.51% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 92.37 | EPS CAGR: 7.70% | SUE: 0.95 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 83.72 | Revenue CAGR: 8.89% | SUE: 0.10 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.32 | Chg30d=-1.18% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=25
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.16 | Chg30d=-0.34% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+12.0% | GrowthRev=+8.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.99 | Chg30d=-0.00% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+16.1% | GrowthRev=+6.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=3, down=3)