CPA Stock Analysis: Copa Holdings | NYSE
Airlines | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 5.522m USD | 12M Return: 12% | PAP310761054 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 44.6M
EPS Trend: -23.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 76.1%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Copa Holdings, S.A. is a Panama-based airline group that provides passenger, cargo, and mail transportation services across North America, South America, Central America, and the Caribbean. As of December 31, 2025, the company operated a fleet of 125 aircraft and is headquartered in Panama City. Founded in 1947 and listed on the NYSE under the ticker CPA since its 2005 IPO, Copa Holdings is classified within the passenger airlines sub-industry of the broader industrials sector. The carrier operates a hub-and-spoke network centered on its Panama City base, leveraging the countrys geographic position to connect numerous destinations across the Americas.
- Latin America air travel demand recovery drives revenue growth
- Jet fuel price volatility pressures operating margins
- Panama hub connectivity attracts competing airline capacity
| Net Income: 626.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -7.49 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2.64% < 20% (prev 1.42%; Δ 1.23% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 1.26b > Net Income 626.6m |
| Net Debt (1.17b) to EBITDA (1.21b): 0.97 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (40.9m) vs 12m ago -0.83% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 30.56% > 18% (prev 37.13%; Δ -6.56% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 60.70% > 50% (prev 57.91%; Δ 2.79% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.66 > 6 (EBIT TTM 811.1m / Interest Expense TTM 105.9m) |
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 1.76b - Total Current Liabilities 1.66b) / Total Assets 7.14b |
| B: 0.38 (Retained Earnings 2.70b / Total Assets 7.14b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 811.1m / Avg Total Assets 6.57b) |
| D: 0.67 (Book Value of Equity 2.87b / Total Liabilities 4.26b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.87 = A |
| DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 221.4m/186.4m, Revenue 3.99b/3.48b) |
| GMI: 1.21 (GM 37.13% / 30.56%) |
| AQI: 0.70 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.09) |
| SGI: 1.15 (Revenue 3.99b / 3.48b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 626.6m - CFO 1.26b) / TA 7.14b) |
| Beneish M = -2.89 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of October 19, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 132.92 with a total of 180,815 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.98%, over one month by +1.43%, over three months by -3.14% and over the past year by +12.00%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 124.10 (which is 6.6% or 2.3 ATR below the current price).
Copa Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.53. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CPA.
- StrongBuy: 10
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 178.7 | 34.5% |
P/E Trailing = 8.8935
P/E Forward = 6.7568
P/S = 1.3846
P/B = 1.9199
P/EG = 0.9448
Revenue TTM = 3.99b USD
EBIT TTM = 811.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.21b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.07b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 68.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.43b USD (corrected: LT Debt 2.07b + ST Debt 68.3m) + Leases 293.2m
Net Debt = 1.17b USD (calculated: Debt 2.43b - CCE 1.26b)
Enterprise Value = 6.69b USD (5.52b + Debt 2.43b - CCE 1.26b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.66 (Ebit TTM 811.1m / Interest Expense TTM 105.9m)
EV/FCF = 39.20x (Enterprise Value 6.69b / FCF TTM 170.6m)
FCF Yield = 2.55% (FCF TTM 170.6m / Enterprise Value 6.69b)
FCF Margin = 4.28% (FCF TTM 170.6m / Revenue TTM 3.99b)
Net Margin = 15.71% (Net Income TTM 626.6m / Revenue TTM 3.99b)
Gross Margin = 30.56% ((Revenue TTM 3.99b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.77b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 16.96% (prev 35.88%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.94 (Enterprise Value 6.69b / Total Assets 7.14b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.36% (Interest Expense 105.9m / Debt 2.43b)
Taxrate = 12.85% (92.4m / 719.0m)
NOPAT = 706.9m (EBIT 811.1m * (1 - 12.85%))
Current Ratio = 1.06 (Total Current Assets 1.76b / Total Current Liabilities 1.66b)
Debt / Equity = 0.85 (Debt 2.43b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.87b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.97 (Net Debt 1.17b / EBITDA 1.21b)
Debt / FCF = 6.84 (Net Debt 1.17b / FCF TTM 170.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.80b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.54% (Net Income 626.6m / Total Assets 7.14b)
RoE = 22.40% (Net Income TTM 626.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.80b)
RoCE = 16.67% (EBIT 811.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.80b + L.T.Debt 2.07b))
RoIC = 13.21% (NOPAT 706.9m / Invested Capital 5.35b)
WACC = 7.03% (E(5.52b)/V(7.95b) * Re(8.46%) + D(2.43b)/V(7.95b) * Rd(4.36%) * (1-Tc(0.13)))
Discount Rate = 8.46% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -93.23 | Cagr: -1.22%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈339.5m ; Y1≈297.7m ; Y5≈240.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 90.13 (EV 3.86b - Net Debt 1.17b = Equity 2.69b / Shares 29.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -23.04 | EPS CAGR: -1.47% | SUE: -0.74 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 76.07 | Revenue CAGR: 3.87% | SUE: -1.10 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=4.27 | Chg30d=-1.00% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=16.58 | Chg30d=+0.06% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+1.8% | GrowthRev=+22.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=19.07 | Chg30d=-1.32% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+15.1% | GrowthRev=+6.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -57% (up=0, down=4)