CPA Stock Analysis: Copa Holdings | NYSE
Airlines | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 6.011m USD | 12M Return: 41.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 47.3M
EPS Trend: -2.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 77.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Copa Holdings, S.A. (NYSE: CPA) is a Panama-based holding company that, through its subsidiaries, operates airline passenger, cargo, and mail transportation services across North America, South America, Central America, and the Caribbean. As of December 31, 2025, the company operated a fleet of 125 aircraft. Founded in 1947 and headquartered in Panama City, Copa is publicly traded on the NYSE following its 2005 IPO and is classified as a mid-cap stock within the Industrials sector (Passenger Airlines sub-industry).
The company runs a hub-and-spoke business model centered on Tocumen International Airport in Panama City, often referred to as the Hub of the Americas, which allows it to connect passengers across the region with relatively short connecting times. Cargo and mail services complement the core passenger operations by utilizing the belly-hold capacity of passenger aircraft, providing an incremental revenue stream without dedicated freighter costs.
- Latin American travel demand recovery boosts passenger revenue growth
- Jet fuel price volatility pressures airline operating margins
- Panama hub competition intensifies from LATAM and low-cost carriers
| Net Income: 707.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -15.38 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 6.68% < 20% (prev -0.56%; Δ 7.25% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 1.28b > Net Income 707.3m |
| Net Debt (1.39b) to EBITDA (1.30b): 1.07 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.16 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (41.2m) vs 12m ago -0.26% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 35.29% > 18% (prev 36.97%; Δ -1.68% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 59.66% > 50% (prev 60.06%; Δ -0.40% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 9.08 > 6 (EBIT TTM 916.9m / Interest Expense TTM 101.0m) |
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 1.82b - Total Current Liabilities 1.57b) / Total Assets 6.89b |
| B: 0.43 (Retained Earnings 2.98b / Total Assets 6.89b) |
| C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 916.9m / Avg Total Assets 6.32b) |
| D: 0.71 (Book Value of Equity 2.87b / Total Liabilities 4.02b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.37 = A |
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 207.7m/178.1m, Revenue 3.77b/3.45b) |
| GMI: 1.05 (GM 36.97% / 35.29%) |
| AQI: 0.49 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.10) |
| SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 3.77b / 3.45b) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 707.3m - CFO 1.28b) / TA 6.89b) |
| Beneish M = -3.17 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 16, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 147.46 with a total of 226,897 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.05%, over one month by +2.12%, over three months by +23.68% and over the past year by +41.89%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 140.90 (which is 4.4% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Copa Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.47. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CPA.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 174.1 | 18.1% |
P/E Trailing = 8.3943
P/E Forward = 9.6993
P/S = 1.5939
P/B = 2.0453
P/EG = 0.9448
Revenue TTM = 3.77b USD
EBIT TTM = 916.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.30b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.89b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 285.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.73b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 308.6m
Net Debt = 1.39b USD (calculated: Debt 2.73b - CCE 1.33b)
Enterprise Value = 7.40b USD (6.01b + Debt 2.73b - CCE 1.33b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 9.08 (Ebit TTM 916.9m / Interest Expense TTM 101.0m)
EV/FCF = 68.28x (Enterprise Value 7.40b / FCF TTM 108.4m)
FCF Yield = 1.46% (FCF TTM 108.4m / Enterprise Value 7.40b)
FCF Margin = 2.88% (FCF TTM 108.4m / Revenue TTM 3.77b)
Net Margin = 18.76% (Net Income TTM 707.3m / Revenue TTM 3.77b)
Gross Margin = 35.29% ((Revenue TTM 3.77b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.44b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 35.88% (prev 33.74%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.07 (Enterprise Value 7.40b / Total Assets 6.89b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.71% (Interest Expense 101.0m / Debt 2.73b)
Taxrate = 13.31% (108.6m / 815.9m)
NOPAT = 794.9m (EBIT 916.9m * (1 - 13.31%))
Current Ratio = 1.16 (Total Current Assets 1.82b / Total Current Liabilities 1.57b)
Debt / Equity = 0.95 (Debt 2.73b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.87b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.07 (Net Debt 1.39b / EBITDA 1.30b)
Debt / FCF = 12.84 (Net Debt 1.39b / FCF TTM 108.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.72b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.19% (Net Income 707.3m / Total Assets 6.89b)
RoE = 26.01% (Net Income TTM 707.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.72b)
RoCE = 19.89% (EBIT 916.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.72b + L.T.Debt 1.89b))
RoIC = 14.65% (NOPAT 794.9m / Invested Capital 5.43b)
WACC = 6.95% (E(6.01b)/V(8.74b) * Re(8.65%) + D(2.73b)/V(8.74b) * Rd(3.71%) * (1-Tc(0.13)))
Discount Rate = 8.65% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -4.27 | Cagr: 1.08%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈454.7m ; Y1≈398.8m ; Y5≈322.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 126.6 (EV 5.17b - Net Debt 1.39b = Equity 3.78b / Shares 29.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -2.29 | EPS CAGR: -0.15% | SUE: 2.34 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 77.43 | Revenue CAGR: 2.49% | SUE: 1.10 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.81 | Chg30d=+3.31% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=5
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=4.61 | Chg30d=+18.32% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=16.60 | Chg30d=+3.50% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+2.0% | GrowthRev=+21.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=19.74 | Chg30d=+0.06% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=+18.9% | GrowthRev=+4.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +30% (up=5, down=2)