CRCL Stock Analysis: Circle Internet | NYSE
Capital Markets | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 17.272m USD | 12M Return: -68.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 986M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 95.4%
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 1.1 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Circle Internet Group, Inc. (NYSE: CRCL) operates as a platform, network, and market infrastructure provider for stablecoin and blockchain applications. Its offerings are organized across three pillars: Arc Blockchain and Developer Infrastructure (a layer-1 blockchain network designed for onchain economic activity), Circle Digital Assets and Services (including the USDC and EURC stablecoins, tokenized money market product USYC, plus custody and liquidity infrastructure such as Circle Mint and xReserve), and Circle Applications (payment and FX products like Circle Payments Network and StableFX).
The company is the issuer of USDC, one of the largest U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoins, which are digital tokens designed to maintain a stable value relative to a reference asset such as fiat currency. Founded in 2013 and headquartered in New York, Circle went public on the NYSE in June 2025 and is classified within the Information Technology sector.
- USDC circulation growth drives reserve interest income
- Fed rate cuts compress yield on stablecoin reserves
- Stablecoin regulation clarity accelerates institutional adoption
- Competition intensifies from Tether and bank-issued tokens
| Net Income: -79.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.17 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 88.99% < 20% (prev 63.84%; Δ 25.16% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 506.6m > Net Income -79.0m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.03 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (242.3m) vs 12m ago 220.3% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 7.17% > 18% (prev 24.00%; Δ -16.83% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 4.01% > 50% (prev 3.04%; Δ 0.97% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -147.3 > 6 (EBIT TTM -136.8m / Interest Expense TTM 929k) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 79.6b - Total Current Liabilities 77.1b) / Total Assets 80.5b |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -1.24b / Total Assets 80.5b) |
| C: -0.00 (EBIT TTM -136.8m / Avg Total Assets 71.4b) |
| D: 0.04 (Book Value of Equity 3.43b / Total Liabilities 77.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.19 = B |
| DSRI: 1.15 (Receivables 349.8m/200.3m, Revenue 2.86b/1.89b) |
| GMI: 3.35 (GM 24.00% / 7.17%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.01 / AQ_t-1 0.01) |
| SGI: 1.51 (Revenue 2.86b / 1.89b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI -79.0m - CFO 506.6m) / TA 80.5b) |
| Beneish M = -0.42 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 65.15 with a total of 8,376,381 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -14.23%, over one month by -21.06%, over three months by -30.78% and over the past year by -68.60%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 56.30 (which is 13.6% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Circle Internet has no consensus analysts rating.
| Analysts Target Price | 137.1 | 110.5% |
P/E Forward = 54.0541
P/S = 6.0346
P/B = 4.4933
P/EG = 4.3449
Revenue TTM = 2.86b USD
EBIT TTM = -136.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = -47.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 11.8m USD (estimated: total debt 14.8m - short term 2.95m)
Short Term Debt = 2.95m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 14.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -1.50b USD (calculated: Debt 14.8m - CCE 1.52b)
Enterprise Value = 15.8b USD (17.3b + Debt 14.8m - CCE 1.52b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -147.3 (Ebit TTM -136.8m / Interest Expense TTM 929k)
EV/FCF = 30.98x (Enterprise Value 15.8b / FCF TTM 508.9m)
FCF Yield = 3.23% (FCF TTM 508.9m / Enterprise Value 15.8b)
FCF Margin = 17.78% (FCF TTM 508.9m / Revenue TTM 2.86b)
Net Margin = -2.76% (Net Income TTM -79.0m / Revenue TTM 2.86b)
Gross Margin = 7.17% ((Revenue TTM 2.86b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.66b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 17.64% (prev 22.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.20 (Enterprise Value 15.8b / Total Assets 80.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.29% (Interest Expense 929k / Debt 14.8m)
Taxrate = 2.54% (1.44m / 56.7m)
NOPAT = -133.4m (EBIT -136.8m * (1 - 2.54%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.03 (Total Current Assets 79.6b / Total Current Liabilities 77.1b)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 14.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.43b)
Debt / EBITDA = 31.77 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -1.50b / EBITDA -47.3m)
Debt / FCF = -2.95 (Net Debt -1.50b / FCF TTM 508.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.04b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.11% (Net Income -79.0m / Total Assets 80.5b)
RoE = -2.60% (Net Income TTM -79.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.04b)
RoCE = -4.49% (EBIT -136.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.04b + L.T.Debt 11.8m))
RoIC = -3.99% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -133.4m / Invested Capital 3.34b)
WACC = 16.07% (E(17.3b)/V(17.3b) * Re(16.08%) + D(14.8m)/V(17.3b) * Rd(6.29%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Discount Rate = 16.08% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 87.33 | Cagr: 82.46%
[DCF] Terminal Value 57.01% ; FCFF base≈419.8m ; Y1≈481.2m ; Y5≈708.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 25.92 (EV 4.45b - Net Debt -1.50b = Equity 5.96b / Shares 229.9m; r=16.07% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.36 | Revenue CAGR: 37.61% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.17 | Chg30d=-0.41% | Revisions=-30% | Analysts=13
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.22 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=14
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.82 | Chg30d=+0.09% | Revisions=+15% | GrowthEPS=+286.5% | GrowthRev=+12.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.61 | Chg30d=-1.00% | Revisions=-13% | GrowthEPS=+95.9% | GrowthRev=+39.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -8% (up=16, down=19)