CSAN Stock Analysis: Cosan | NYSE
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.712m USD | 12M Return: 13.3% | US22113B1035 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 27.6M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 15.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 5.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Cosan S.A. is a Brazilian holding company that operates a diversified portfolio of energy, fuel, logistics, and agribusiness businesses through five reportable segments: Raízen, Compass, Moove, Rumo, and Radar. The company is classified within the Energy sector and serves customers across more than a dozen countries spanning Latin America, Europe, Asia, and other regions.
The Raízen segment is Cosans largest business and combines downstream fuel distribution under the Shell brand with the production, marketing, and trading of sugar, ethanol, and bioenergy (including solar and biogas), along with electricity trading. Brazil is the worlds largest producer and exporter of sugarcane-derived ethanol, and integrated players like Raízen typically control the full value chain from sugarcane cultivation through fuel retail.
The Compass segment focuses on the distribution and marketing of piped natural gas to industrial, residential, commercial, automotive, and cogeneration customers, positioning Cosan within Brazils regulated natural gas distribution industry. The Moove segment manufactures and distributes lubricants, base oils, and specialties, operating under the Mobil brand and various proprietary labels for industrial, commercial, and passenger vehicle markets.
The Rumo segment provides rail-based logistics services, including transportation, storage, port loading, and leasing of locomotives and railcars, primarily for agricultural commodities such as grains and sugar. Rail freight is a critical component of Brazils bulk commodity supply chain, particularly for moving harvests from interior production regions to export terminals. The Radar segment complements this by managing agricultural property.
Founded in 1936 and headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil, Cosan began as a fuel distributor before expanding into adjacent infrastructure and commodity businesses. The company has been listed on the NYSE under the ticker CSAN since 2021, with its mid-cap market capitalization reflecting its position as a diversified Brazilian energy and logistics operator.
- Ethanol and sugar margins swing on Brazilian harvest
- Raízen fuel distribution faces Brazilian regulatory pressure
- Rumo rail volumes rise on grain export demand
| Net Income: -8.98b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.58 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 31.37% < 20% (prev 27.93%; Δ 3.44% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 9.27b > Net Income -8.98b |
| Net Debt (48.6b) to EBITDA (12.2b): 3.99 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.67 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (984.1m) vs 12m ago -47.05% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.45% > 18% (prev 31.48%; Δ 2.97% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 31.86% > 50% (prev 34.56%; Δ -2.70% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.17 > 6 (EBIT TTM 8.26b / Interest Expense TTM 7.04b) |
| A: 0.10 (Total Current Assets 31.5b - Total Current Liabilities 18.9b) / Total Assets 126b |
| B: -0.09 (Retained Earnings -11.6b / Total Assets 126b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 8.26b / Avg Total Assets 126b) |
| D: 0.05 (Book Value of Equity 4.96b / Total Liabilities 94.8b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.85 = B |
| DSRI: 1.24 (Receivables 6.91b/6.04b, Revenue 40.2b/43.6b) |
| GMI: 0.91 (GM 31.48% / 34.45%) |
| AQI: 0.86 (AQ_t 0.44 / AQ_t-1 0.52) |
| SGI: 0.92 (Revenue 40.2b / 43.6b) |
| TATA: -0.14 (NI -8.98b - CFO 9.27b) / TA 126b) |
| Beneish M = -3.06 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 5.10 with a total of 145,981,500 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +36.36%, over one month by +70.00%, over three months by +68.32% and over the past year by +13.33%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 4.70 (which is 7.8% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Cosan has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.50. Therefore, it is recommended to hold CSAN.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 3.4 | -33.7% |
Market Cap BRL = 13.5b (2.71b USD * 4.9936 USD.BRL)
P/E Forward = 6.5789
P/S = 0.0677
P/B = 3.0044
Revenue TTM = 40.2b BRL
EBIT TTM = 8.26b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 12.2b BRL
Long Term Debt = 49.3b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.95b BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 67.4b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 6.63b
Net Debt = 48.6b BRL (calculated: Debt 67.4b - CCE 18.9b)
Enterprise Value = 62.1b BRL (13.5b + Debt 67.4b - CCE 18.9b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.17 (Ebit TTM 8.26b / Interest Expense TTM 7.04b)
EV/FCF = 116.4x (Enterprise Value 62.1b / FCF TTM 533.5m)
FCF Yield = 0.86% (FCF TTM 533.5m / Enterprise Value 62.1b)
FCF Margin = 1.33% (FCF TTM 533.5m / Revenue TTM 40.2b)
Net Margin = -22.32% (Net Income TTM -8.98b / Revenue TTM 40.2b)
Gross Margin = 34.45% ((Revenue TTM 40.2b - Cost of Revenue TTM 26.4b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.39% (prev 34.07%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.49 (Enterprise Value 62.1b / Total Assets 126b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 10.44% (Interest Expense 7.04b / Debt 67.4b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 6.53b (EBIT 8.26b * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.67 (Total Current Assets 31.5b / Total Current Liabilities 18.9b)
Debt / Equity = 13.59 (Debt 67.4b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.96b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.99 (Net Debt 48.6b / EBITDA 12.2b)
Debt / FCF = 91.04 (Net Debt 48.6b / FCF TTM 533.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.91b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -7.11% (Net Income -8.98b / Total Assets 126b)
RoE = -182.7% (Net Income TTM -8.98b / Total Stockholder Equity 4.91b)
RoCE = 15.24% (EBIT 8.26b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.91b + L.T.Debt 49.3b))
RoIC = 5.85% (NOPAT 6.53b / Invested Capital 112b)
WACC = 8.56% (E(13.5b)/V(81.0b) * Re(10.13%) + D(67.4b)/V(81.0b) * Rd(10.44%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.13% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -0.49 | Cagr: -24.75%
[DCF] Terminal Value 72.30% ; FCFF base≈1.84b ; Y1≈1.61b ; Y5≈1.30b
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 20.2b - Net Debt 48.6b = -28.4b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.55 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 15.27 | Revenue CAGR: 0.67% | SUE: -0.75 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.36 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+91.3% | GrowthRev=+293.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.60 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+144.1% | GrowthRev=+3.3%