(CSAN) Cosan - NYSE
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 2.623m USD | Total Return: -54.8% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 8.62M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 70.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Share dilution 110.7% YoY
Altman Z'' 0.89 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
Shakeout
Cosan S.A. (CSAN) is a Brazilian conglomerate operating across the energy, logistics, and infrastructure sectors. The company functions as a holding entity for several major subsidiaries, including Raízen, a joint venture with Shell that manages ethanol production and fuel distribution, and Rumo, the largest railway operator in Brazil. Its business model relies on a vertically integrated supply chain that spans from agricultural land management to the international distribution of lubricants and natural gas.
The company operates within the GICS Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sub-industry, where it leverages Brazil’s competitive advantage in biofuels and renewable energy. This diversified structure allows Cosan to capture value across the entire commodity lifecycle, from production and processing to rail transportation and port logistics. Further analysis of these operational segments on ValueRay can help clarify the companys long-term growth trajectory.
Headquartered in São Paulo and founded in 1936, Cosan has expanded its geographic footprint to include operations in Europe, Asia, and North America. Its Moove segment maintains a strategic partnership for the distribution of Mobil-branded products, while its Compass division focuses on the expansion of Brazil’s natural gas infrastructure. The company’s performance is closely tied to global commodity prices and the domestic demand for industrial energy and transportation services.
- Global sugar and ethanol price volatility impacts Raizen segment profit margins
- Brazilian Real exchange rate fluctuations affect US dollar denominated debt servicing
- Rail logistics demand for agricultural commodities drives Rumo segment revenue growth
- Natural gas market deregulation in Brazil influences Compass commercial expansion opportunities
- Global industrial demand for Mobil lubricants dictates Moove segment operational cash flow
| Net Income: -9.61b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.49 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 37.16% < 20% (prev 34.07%; Δ 3.09% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 10.9b > Net Income -9.61b |
| Net Debt (49.5b) to EBITDA (11.1b): 4.47 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.87 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.96b) vs 12m ago 110.7% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 33.62% > 18% (prev 31.23%; Δ 2.39% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 31.38% > 50% (prev 34.33%; Δ -2.95% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.12 > 6 (EBIT TTM 7.17b / Interest Expense TTM 6.37b) |
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 31.9b - Total Current Liabilities 17.1b) / Total Assets 127b |
| B: -0.09 (Retained Earnings -11.3b / Total Assets 127b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 7.17b / Avg Total Assets 127b) |
| D: 0.04 (Book Value of Equity 3.49b / Total Liabilities 97.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.89 = B |
| DSRI: 1.16 (Receivables 6.73b/6.39b, Revenue 39.9b/43.8b) |
| GMI: 0.93 (GM 31.23% / 33.62%) |
| AQI: 0.87 (AQ_t 0.45 / AQ_t-1 0.52) |
| SGI: 0.91 (Revenue 39.9b / 43.8b) |
| TATA: -0.16 (NI -9.61b - CFO 10.9b) / TA 127b) |
| Beneish M = -3.12 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of June 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 2.67 with a total of 973,083 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.30%,
over one month by -26.45%,
over three months by -34.72% and
over the past year by -54.82%.
Cosan has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.50. Therefore, it is recommended to hold CSAN.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 4.1 | 55.1% |
Market Cap BRL = 13.3b (2.62b USD * 5.0625 USD.BRL)
P/E Forward = 6.1614
P/S = 0.0659
P/B = 3.891
Revenue TTM = 39.9b BRL
EBIT TTM = 7.17b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 11.1b BRL
Long Term Debt = 54.8b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.69b BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 71.3b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 6.38b
Net Debt = 49.5b BRL (calculated: Debt 71.3b - CCE 21.7b)
Enterprise Value = 62.8b BRL (13.3b + Debt 71.3b - CCE 21.7b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.12 (Ebit TTM 7.17b / Interest Expense TTM 6.37b)
EV/FCF = 25.50x (Enterprise Value 62.8b / FCF TTM 2.46b)
FCF Yield = 3.92% (FCF TTM 2.46b / Enterprise Value 62.8b)
FCF Margin = 6.17% (FCF TTM 2.46b / Revenue TTM 39.9b)
Net Margin = -24.06% (Net Income TTM -9.61b / Revenue TTM 39.9b)
Gross Margin = 33.62% ((Revenue TTM 39.9b - Cost of Revenue TTM 26.5b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 34.07% (prev 31.01%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.49 (Enterprise Value 62.8b / Total Assets 127b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.94% (Interest Expense 6.37b / Debt 71.3b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 5.66b (EBIT 7.17b * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.87 (Total Current Assets 31.9b / Total Current Liabilities 17.1b)
Debt / Equity = 20.39 (Debt 71.3b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.49b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.47 (Net Debt 49.5b / EBITDA 11.1b)
Debt / FCF = 20.10 (Net Debt 49.5b / FCF TTM 2.46b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.47b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -7.55% (Net Income -9.61b / Total Assets 127b)
RoE = -175.5% (Net Income TTM -9.61b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.47b)
RoCE = 11.89% (EBIT 7.17b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.47b + L.T.Debt 54.8b))
RoIC = 5.03% (NOPAT 5.66b / Invested Capital 113b)
WACC = 7.57% (E(13.3b)/V(84.5b) * Re(10.28%) + D(71.3b)/V(84.5b) * Rd(8.94%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.28% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 8.99 | Cagr: 38.88%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈2.71b ; Y1≈2.38b ; Y5≈1.92b
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 30.9b - Net Debt 49.5b = -18.6b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.26 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 70.62 | Revenue CAGR: 9.33% | SUE: -0.74 | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.31 | Chg30d=-54.86% | Revisions=-20% | GrowthEPS=+0.0% | GrowthRev=+299.4%