(CSAN) Cosan - Overview
Stock: Sugar, Ethanol, Fuel, Lubricants, Gas
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 53.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -0.25% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.15 |
| Alpha | -28.66 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.758 |
| Beta Downside | 0.474 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 77.15% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.34 |
Description: CSAN Cosan January 14, 2026
Cosan S.A. (NYSE: CSAN) is a diversified Brazilian energy and logistics conglomerate that generates the bulk of its earnings through its Raízen joint venture with Shell, which integrates sugar-ethanol production, bioenergy, electricity trading, and fuel distribution under the Shell brand.
Beyond Raízen, Cosan’s Compass unit is expanding Brazil’s piped natural-gas footprint-serving over 2 million customers and targeting a 15 % CAGR in gas-linked revenue through new regasification and offshore pipeline projects. Its Moove lubricants business leverages the Mobil brand, while Rumo operates South America’s largest private rail network (≈4,600 km) and handles roughly 30 % of Brazil’s grain-to-port logistics, providing a stable cash-flow buffer. The Radar segment holds strategic agricultural assets that support the sugar-ethanol value chain.
Key drivers include Brazil’s renewable-energy mandate (targeting 45 % renewable electricity by 2030), volatile global sugar and ethanol prices, and the country’s push for natural-gas-based power generation, all of which can materially affect Cosan’s margins. For a deeper quantitative dive, the ValueRay platform offers granular financial models and scenario analysis.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: -13.22b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.04 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 27.98% < 20% (prev 34.86%; Δ -6.88% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 9.90b > Net Income -13.22b |
| Net Debt (48.02b) to EBITDA (12.06b): 3.98 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.80 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (464.7m) vs 12m ago -0.35% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 31.95% > 18% (prev 0.30%; Δ 3165 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 31.47% > 50% (prev 28.83%; Δ 2.64% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.03 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 12.06b / Interest Expense TTM 4.08b) |
Altman Z'' 1.25
| A: 0.09 (Total Current Assets 26.89b - Total Current Liabilities 14.97b) / Total Assets 125.74b |
| B: -0.03 (Retained Earnings -3.92b / Total Assets 125.74b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 8.29b / Avg Total Assets 135.28b) |
| D: 0.30 (Book Value of Equity 28.13b / Total Liabilities 93.69b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.25 = BB |
Beneish M -3.60
| DSRI: 0.61 (Receivables 3.84b/6.14b, Revenue 42.57b/41.76b) |
| GMI: 0.94 (GM 31.95% / 30.06%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.58 / AQ_t-1 0.62) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 42.57b / 41.76b) |
| TATA: -0.18 (NI -13.22b - CFO 9.90b) / TA 125.74b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.60 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of CSAN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.45%, over one month by +14.21%, over three months by -9.98% and over the past year by -14.84%.
Is CSAN a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CSAN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 5.4 | 22.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 5.4 | 22.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 3.6 | -18.8% |
CSAN Fundamental Data Overview February 09, 2026
P/E Forward = 6.5062
P/S = 0.1028
P/B = 3.8856
Revenue TTM = 42.57b BRL
EBIT TTM = 8.29b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 12.06b BRL
Long Term Debt = 57.02b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.89b BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 60.91b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 48.02b BRL (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 67.64b BRL (22.82b + Debt 60.91b - CCE 16.10b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.03 (Ebit TTM 8.29b / Interest Expense TTM 4.08b)
EV/FCF = 25.49x (Enterprise Value 67.64b / FCF TTM 2.65b)
FCF Yield = 3.92% (FCF TTM 2.65b / Enterprise Value 67.64b)
FCF Margin = 6.23% (FCF TTM 2.65b / Revenue TTM 42.57b)
Net Margin = -31.04% (Net Income TTM -13.22b / Revenue TTM 42.57b)
Gross Margin = 31.95% ((Revenue TTM 42.57b - Cost of Revenue TTM 28.97b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 34.96% (prev 34.32%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.54 (Enterprise Value 67.64b / Total Assets 125.74b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.16% (Interest Expense 94.8m / Debt 60.91b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 6.55b (EBIT 8.29b * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.80 (Total Current Assets 26.89b / Total Current Liabilities 14.97b)
Debt / Equity = 1.90 (Debt 60.91b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 32.05b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.98 (Net Debt 48.02b / EBITDA 12.06b)
Debt / FCF = 18.10 (Net Debt 48.02b / FCF TTM 2.65b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 14.51b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -9.77% (Net Income -13.22b / Total Assets 125.74b)
RoE = -91.08% (Net Income TTM -13.22b / Total Stockholder Equity 14.51b)
RoCE = 11.59% (EBIT 8.29b / Capital Employed (Equity 14.51b + L.T.Debt 57.02b))
RoIC = 8.48% (NOPAT 6.55b / Invested Capital 77.21b)
WACC = 2.46% (E(22.82b)/V(83.74b) * Re(8.71%) + D(60.91b)/V(83.74b) * Rd(0.16%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.71% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.31%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.28% ; FCFF base≈2.79b ; Y1≈2.53b ; Y5≈2.19b
Fair Price DCF = 18.41 (EV 66.24b - Net Debt 48.02b = Equity 18.23b / Shares 989.9m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -11.76% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -38.09 | EPS CAGR: -0.98% | SUE: -0.04 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 30.30 | Revenue CAGR: 12.97% | SUE: -1.73 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.88 | Chg30d=+1.998 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+204.3% | Growth Revenue=+1.8%