CTO Stock Analysis: CTO Realty Growth | NYSE

REIT - Diversified | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 729m USD | 12M Return: 35.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Retail Properties, Property Management, Net Lease, Real Estate Investment
Total Rating 54
Safety 77
Buy Signal 0.20
REIT - Diversified
Industry Rotation: +0.1
Market Cap: 729M
Avg Turnover: 7.44M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility19.8%
VaR 5th Pctl3.44%
VaR vs Median5.30%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.37
Rel. Str. IBD75.6
Rel. Str. Peer Group95.8
Character TTM
Beta0.105
Beta Downside0.028
Hurst Exponent0.468
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD21.38%
CAGR/Max DD0.80
CAGR/Mean DD2.92
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of CTO over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.49, "2021-09": 0.01, "2021-12": 0.04, "2022-03": -0.06, "2022-06": 0.0012, "2022-09": -0.07, "2022-12": -0.21, "2023-03": -0.09, "2023-06": -0.01, "2023-09": -0.06, "2023-12": 0.25, "2024-03": -0.03, "2024-06": -0.07, "2024-09": 0.17, "2024-12": -0.4674, "2025-03": 0.01, "2025-06": -0.01, "2025-09": 0.03, "2025-12": 0.82, "2026-03": 0.13,
Last SUE: 0.27
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of CTO over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 14.283, 2021-09: 16.577, 2021-12: 24.7, 2022-03: 17.21, 2022-06: 19.463, 2022-09: 23.117, 2022-12: 22.53, 2023-03: 24.717, 2023-06: 26.047, 2023-09: 28.47, 2023-12: 29.885, 2024-03: 28.127, 2024-06: 28.845, 2024-09: 31.805, 2024-12: 35.742, 2025-03: 35.811, 2025-06: 37.638, 2025-09: 37.757, 2025-12: 38.339, 2026-03: 41.173,
Rev. CAGR: 18.85%
Rev. Trend: 99.5%
Last SUE: 2.48
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

P/E Ratio 107.8

Tailwinds

Idiosyncratic Leader

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +0.6% 0
Feb -0.8% 0
Mar +0.4% 36
Apr -1.3% 14
May -0.7% 14
Jun +0.4% 13
Jul +2.5% 53
Aug -0.0% 0
Sep -1.1% 26
Oct -0.5% 25
Nov +3.2% 61
Dec +2.7% 0

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: CTO CTO Realty Growth

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. is a publicly traded real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and operates a portfolio of retail-based properties located primarily in higher-growth U.S. markets. In addition to its directly owned portfolio, the company externally manages and holds a meaningful ownership interest in Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc., a publicly traded net lease REIT. The company was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Winter Park, Florida.

As a REIT, CTO is generally required to distribute a substantial portion of its taxable income to shareholders in exchange for favorable corporate tax treatment. Net lease REITs, such as Alpine Income Property Trust, typically operate under a structure in which tenants are responsible for most property-level expenses, including real estate taxes, insurance, and maintenance, in addition to rent.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Retail portfolio occupancy and rental rates drive FFO growth
  • Alpine Income Property Trust stake adds fee income and equity upside
  • Interest rate environment pressures REIT valuations and capital costs
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.0
Net Income: 14.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.16 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 133.4% < 20% (prev 82.74%; Δ 50.65% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 68.9m > Net Income 14.2m
Net Debt (597.2m) to EBITDA (132.2m): 4.52 < 3
Current Ratio: 7.23 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (32.5m) vs 12m ago 2.94% < -2%
Gross Margin: -2.79% > 18% (prev 73.87%; Δ -76.66% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 12.18% > 50% (prev 10.63%; Δ 1.55% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.49 > 6 (EBIT TTM 41.9m / Interest Expense TTM 28.1m)
Altman Z'' 2.54
A: 0.16 (Total Current Assets 239.8m - Total Current Liabilities 33.2m) / Total Assets 1.30b
B: 0.14 (Retained Earnings 176.4m / Total Assets 1.30b)
C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 41.9m / Avg Total Assets 1.27b)
D: 0.79 (Book Value of Equity 575.4m / Total Liabilities 724.3m)
Altman-Z'' = 2.54 = A
Beneish M -3.18
DSRI: 0.71 (Receivables 104.3m/126.1m, Revenue 154.9m/132.2m)
GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins)
AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.82 / AQ_t-1 0.85)
SGI: 1.17 (Revenue 154.9m / 132.2m)
TATA: -0.04 (NI 14.2m - CFO 68.9m) / TA 1.30b)
Beneish M = -3.18 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of CTO shares?

As of July 06, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 21.57 with a total of 472,800 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.03%, over one month by +7.06%, over three months by +15.62% and over the past year by +35.10%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 20.40 (which is 5.4% or 2.7 ATR below the current price).

Is CTO a buy, sell or hold?

CTO Realty Growth has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CTO.

  • StrongBuy: 7
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the CTO price?
Analysts Target Price 23.5 8.9%
CTO Realty Growth (CTO) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 04 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 728.7m (728.7m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 107.85
P/E Forward = 121.9512
P/S = 4.7042
P/B = 1.2613
Revenue TTM = 154.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 41.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 132.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 649.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 17.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 649.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 201k
Net Debt = 597.2m USD (calculated: Debt 649.9m - CCE 52.8m)
Enterprise Value = 1.33b USD (728.7m + Debt 649.9m - CCE 52.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.49 (Ebit TTM 41.9m / Interest Expense TTM 28.1m)
EV/FCF = 19.25x (Enterprise Value 1.33b / FCF TTM 68.9m)
FCF Yield = 5.20% (FCF TTM 68.9m / Enterprise Value 1.33b)
FCF Margin = 44.47% (FCF TTM 68.9m / Revenue TTM 154.9m)
Net Margin = 9.14% (Net Income TTM 14.2m / Revenue TTM 154.9m)
Gross Margin = -2.79% ((Revenue TTM 154.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 159.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.30% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.02 (Enterprise Value 1.33b / Total Assets 1.30b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.32% (Interest Expense 28.1m / Debt 649.9m)
Taxrate = 2.34% (339k / 14.5m)
NOPAT = 40.9m (EBIT 41.9m * (1 - 2.34%))
Current Ratio = 7.23 (Total Current Assets 239.8m / Total Current Liabilities 33.2m)
Debt / Equity = 1.13 (Debt 649.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 575.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.52 (Net Debt 597.2m / EBITDA 132.2m)
Debt / FCF = 8.67 (Net Debt 597.2m / FCF TTM 68.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 568.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.11% (Net Income 14.2m / Total Assets 1.30b)
RoE = 2.49% (Net Income TTM 14.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 568.5m)
RoCE = 3.44% (EBIT 41.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 568.5m + L.T.Debt 649.5m))
RoIC = 3.21% (NOPAT 40.9m / Invested Capital 1.28b)
WACC = 5.34% (E(728.7m)/V(1.38b) * Re(6.35%) + D(649.9m)/V(1.38b) * Rd(4.32%) * (1-Tc(0.02)))
Discount Rate = 6.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 60.0 | Cagr: 10.69%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.63% ; FCFF base≈68.5m ; Y1≈69.6m ; Y5≈75.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 17.01 (EV 1.17b - Net Debt 597.2m = Equity 574.8m / Shares 33.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 1.46% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.27 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.49 | Revenue CAGR: 18.85% | SUE: 2.48 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.10 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=3
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.10 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.45 | Chg30d=+373.68% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+462.5% | GrowthRev=+13.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.57 | Chg30d=+124.82% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+27.4% | GrowthRev=+5.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -38% (up=1, down=4)