CTO Stock Analysis: CTO Realty Growth | NYSE

REIT - Diversified | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 820m USD | 12M Return: 43.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Retail Properties, Property Management, Net Lease, Real Estate Investment
Total Rating 54
Safety 22
Buy Signal 0.30
REIT - Diversified
Industry Rotation: -6.7
Market Cap: 820M
Avg Turnover: 6.91M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility20.5%
VaR 5th Pctl3.54%
VaR vs Median5.07%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.86
Rel. Str. IBD79.1
Rel. Str. Peer Group95.5
Character TTM
Beta0.063
Beta Downside-0.004
Hurst Exponent0.455
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD21.38%
CAGR/Max DD0.79
CAGR/Mean DD2.94
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of CTO over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.49, "2021-09": 0.01, "2021-12": 0.04, "2022-03": -0.06, "2022-06": 0.0012, "2022-09": -0.07, "2022-12": -0.21, "2023-03": -0.09, "2023-06": -0.01, "2023-09": -0.06, "2023-12": 0.25, "2024-03": -0.03, "2024-06": -0.07, "2024-09": 0.17, "2024-12": -0.4674, "2025-03": 0.01, "2025-06": -0.01, "2025-09": 0.03, "2025-12": 0.82, "2026-03": 0.13, "2026-06": 0.55,
Last SUE: 0.11
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of CTO over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 14.283, 2021-09: 16.577, 2021-12: 24.7, 2022-03: 17.21, 2022-06: 19.463, 2022-09: 23.117, 2022-12: 22.53, 2023-03: 24.717, 2023-06: 26.047, 2023-09: 28.47, 2023-12: 29.885, 2024-03: 28.127, 2024-06: 28.845, 2024-09: 31.805, 2024-12: 35.742, 2025-03: 35.811, 2025-06: 37.638, 2025-09: 37.757, 2025-12: 38.339, 2026-03: 41.173, 2026-06: 43.831,
Rev. CAGR: 18.25%
Rev. Trend: 99.5%
Last SUE: 1.64
Qual. Beats: 2

Warnings

Earnings Expected To Drop (P/E To P/E Forward)
Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation
Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

Supp Ema20
Idiosyncratic Leader

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan -0.1% 10
Feb +0.1% 7
Mar +0.4% 20
Apr -0.2% 7
May -0.9% 16
Jun +0.4% 15
Jul +2.5% 32
Aug +0.1% 0
Sep -1.8% 30
Oct -0.3% 13
Nov +3.7% 56
Dec +1.6% 14

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: CTO CTO Realty Growth

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. is a publicly traded real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns and operates a portfolio of retail-based properties located primarily in higher-growth U.S. markets. In addition to its directly owned portfolio, the company externally manages and holds a meaningful ownership interest in Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc., a publicly traded net lease REIT. The company was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Winter Park, Florida.

As a REIT, CTO is generally required to distribute a substantial portion of its taxable income to shareholders in exchange for favorable corporate tax treatment. Net lease REITs, such as Alpine Income Property Trust, typically operate under a structure in which tenants are responsible for most property-level expenses, including real estate taxes, insurance, and maintenance, in addition to rent.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Retail portfolio occupancy and rental rates drive FFO growth
  • Alpine Income Property Trust stake adds fee income and equity upside
  • Interest rate environment pressures REIT valuations and capital costs
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 4.0
Net Income: 52.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -5.23 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 15.95% < 20% (prev 110.5%; Δ -94.59% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 66.9m > Net Income 52.7m
Net Debt (631.1m) to EBITDA (152.0m): 4.15 < 3
Current Ratio: 2.44 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (33.8m) vs 12m ago 3.24% < -2%
Gross Margin: 0.57% > 18% (prev 74.20%; Δ -73.63% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 12.22% > 50% (prev 11.43%; Δ 0.78% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.11 > 6 (EBIT TTM 61.1m / Interest Expense TTM 29.0m)
Altman Z'' 1.78
A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 43.5m - Total Current Liabilities 17.8m) / Total Assets 1.40b
B: 0.13 (Retained Earnings 175.6m / Total Assets 1.40b)
C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 61.1m / Avg Total Assets 1.32b)
D: 0.89 (Book Value of Equity 663.2m / Total Liabilities 742.5m)
Altman-Z'' = 1.78 = BBB
Beneish M 1.00
DSRI: 1.44 (Receivables 210.4m/127.8m, Revenue 161.1m/141.0m)
GMI: 129.6 (GM 74.20% / 0.57%)
AQI: 0.31 (AQ_t 0.27 / AQ_t-1 0.85)
SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 161.1m / 141.0m)
TATA: -0.01 (NI 52.7m - CFO 66.9m) / TA 1.40b)
Beneish M = 113.6 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of CTO shares?

As of August 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 21.97 with a total of 326,488 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.14%, over one month by +1.85%, over three months by +10.06% and over the past year by +43.14%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 21.30 (which is 3% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is CTO a buy, sell or hold?

CTO Realty Growth has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CTO.

  • StrongBuy: 7
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the CTO price?
Analysts Target Price 24 9.2%
CTO Realty Growth (CTO) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 01 August 2026
Market Cap USD = 819.8m (819.8m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 16.2
P/E Forward = 121.9512
P/S = 5.0888
P/B = 1.2645
Revenue TTM = 161.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 61.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 152.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 616.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 17.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 690.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 201k
Net Debt = 631.1m USD (calculated: Debt 690.5m - CCE 59.4m)
Enterprise Value = 1.45b USD (819.8m + Debt 690.5m - CCE 59.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.11 (Ebit TTM 61.1m / Interest Expense TTM 29.0m)
EV/FCF = 102.3x (Enterprise Value 1.45b / FCF TTM 14.2m)
FCF Yield = 0.98% (FCF TTM 14.2m / Enterprise Value 1.45b)
FCF Margin = 8.81% (FCF TTM 14.2m / Revenue TTM 161.1m)
Net Margin = 32.70% (Net Income TTM 52.7m / Revenue TTM 161.1m)
Gross Margin = 0.57% ((Revenue TTM 161.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 160.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 74.62% (prev 75.30%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.03 (Enterprise Value 1.45b / Total Assets 1.40b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.20% (Interest Expense 29.0m / Debt 690.5m)
Taxrate = 2.35% (1.27m / 53.9m)
NOPAT = 59.6m (EBIT 61.1m * (1 - 2.35%))
Current Ratio = 2.44 (Total Current Assets 43.5m / Total Current Liabilities 17.8m)
Debt / Equity = 1.04 (Debt 690.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 663.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.15 (Net Debt 631.1m / EBITDA 152.0m)
Debt / FCF = 44.49 (Net Debt 631.1m / FCF TTM 14.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 590.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.99% (Net Income 52.7m / Total Assets 1.40b)
RoE = 8.92% (Net Income TTM 52.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 590.8m)
RoCE = 5.06% (EBIT 61.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 590.8m + L.T.Debt 616.3m))
RoIC = 4.27% (NOPAT 59.6m / Invested Capital 1.40b)
WACC = 5.24% (E(819.8m)/V(1.51b) * Re(6.20%) + D(690.5m)/V(1.51b) * Rd(4.20%) * (1-Tc(0.02)))
Discount Rate = 6.20% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 85.79 | Cagr: 12.24%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈39.3m ; Y1≈34.5m ; Y5≈27.8m
 [DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 446.8m - Net Debt 631.1m = -184.3m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
 EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.11 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.47 | Revenue CAGR: 18.25% | SUE: 1.64 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.08 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.67 | Chg30d=+48.89% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+737.5% | GrowthRev=+16.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.25 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+27.4% | GrowthRev=+7.3%