(CUK) Carnival ADS - Ratings and Ratios
Cruises, Travel, Hotels, Railcars
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 48.2% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 72.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.88% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.27 |
| Alpha | -13.67 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.505 |
| Beta | 1.787 |
| Beta Downside | 1.785 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 43.10% |
| Mean DD | 14.02% |
| Median DD | 12.90% |
Description: CUK Carnival ADS September 29, 2025
Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE: CUK) is the world’s largest cruise operator, offering leisure travel across North America, Australia, Europe and global itineraries. It runs four reporting segments-NAA Cruise Operations, Europe Cruise Operations, Cruise Support, and Tour & Other-while also owning ancillary assets such as ports, hotels, glass-domed railcars and motorcoaches.
The company’s portfolio comprises ten brands: AIDA Cruises, Carnival Cruise Line, Costa Cruises, Cunard, Holland America Line, P&O Cruises (Australia), P&O Cruises (UK), Princess Cruises, and Seabourn. These brands target distinct market tiers, from mass-market (Carnival, P&O) to premium (Princess, Seabourn) and ultra-luxury (Cunard).
Distribution is multi-channel: travel agents, tour operators, vacation planners, direct-to-consumer websites, and onboard “future cruise” consultants. This diversified sales mix helps mitigate reliance on any single booking source, though the COVID-19 pandemic showed that agency-driven sales can be highly volatile.
Key performance indicators (as of Q2 2024) include a passenger-load factor of ~92%, an adjusted EBITDA margin of roughly 18%, and net debt of $31 billion-about 2.5 × FY-2023 EBITDA. These figures suggest strong demand recovery but also highlight leverage that remains above the industry median (~1.8 × EBITDA).
Primary economic drivers for Carnival are discretionary consumer spending, fuel prices (marine diesel and LNG), and foreign-exchange exposure (revenues are euro-denominated while costs are largely in USD). A 5 % rise in U.S. consumer confidence historically correlates with a ~1.2 % uplift in cruise bookings, while a 10 % increase in bunker fuel costs can compress margins by 0.8 %-1.0 % if not fully passed to passengers.
Assumption: the above KPIs rely on management’s latest quarterly release and Bloomberg estimates; actual results may differ due to unforeseen regulatory changes or pandemic-related disruptions. Uncertainty remains around future capacity expansions (new ships slated for 2026-2028) and the speed of inflation-driven price adjustments.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may find the ValueRay platform’s detailed financial models useful.
CUK Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 31,208m |
| Sub-Industry | Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines |
| IPO / Inception | 2000-10-23 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -4.94% |
| Analyst Rating | - |
CUK Dividends
Currently no dividends paidCUK Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | 42.43% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 0.98 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 3.03 |
| Current Volume | 1925.1k |
| Average Volume | 1531.2k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income (2.64b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.57b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.06 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 3.38pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -28.85% (prev -35.29%; Δ 6.44pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 (>3.0%) and CFO 5.61b > Net Income 2.64b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (26.10b) to EBITDA (6.79b) ratio: 3.84 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.34 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (1.40b) change vs 12m ago 0.21% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 39.49% (prev 36.95%; Δ 2.55pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 52.63% (prev 49.15%; Δ 3.48pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 2.87 (EBITDA TTM 6.79b / Interest Expense TTM 1.42b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -0.07
| (A) -0.15 = (Total Current Assets 3.87b - Total Current Liabilities 11.44b) / Total Assets 49.87b |
| (B) 0.09 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 4.39b / Total Assets 49.87b |
| (C) 0.08 = EBIT TTM 4.07b / Avg Total Assets 49.84b |
| (D) 0.08 = Book Value of Equity 3.05b / Total Liabilities 37.94b |
| Total Rating: -0.07 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 68.60
| 1. Piotroski 5.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 5.09% |
| 3. FCF Margin 11.11% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.34 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 3.84 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 3.77)% |
| 7. RoE 26.18% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 75.77% |
| 9. EPS Trend 58.62% |
What is the price of CUK shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.24%, over one month by -9.39%, over three months by -15.66% and over the past year by +6.12%.
Is CUK a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the CUK price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 34.5 | 43% |
| Analysts Target Price | 34.5 | 43% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 25.3 | 4.7% |
CUK Fundamental Data Overview November 21, 2025
P/E Trailing = 12.2268
P/E Forward = 11.0865
P/S = 1.1898
P/B = 2.6113
P/EG = 0.6087
Beta = 2.527
Revenue TTM = 26.23b USD
EBIT TTM = 4.07b USD
EBITDA TTM = 6.79b USD
Long Term Debt = 25.06b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.59b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 27.86b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 26.10b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 57.30b USD (31.21b + Debt 27.86b - CCE 1.76b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.87 (Ebit TTM 4.07b / Interest Expense TTM 1.42b)
FCF Yield = 5.09% (FCF TTM 2.91b / Enterprise Value 57.30b)
FCF Margin = 11.11% (FCF TTM 2.91b / Revenue TTM 26.23b)
Net Margin = 10.07% (Net Income TTM 2.64b / Revenue TTM 26.23b)
Gross Margin = 39.49% ((Revenue TTM 26.23b - Cost of Revenue TTM 15.87b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 46.22% (prev 38.59%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.15 (Enterprise Value 57.30b / Total Assets 49.87b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.06% (Interest Expense 296.0m / Debt 27.86b)
Taxrate = 0.32% (6.00m / 1.86b)
NOPAT = 4.06b (EBIT 4.07b * (1 - 0.32%))
Current Ratio = 0.34 (Total Current Assets 3.87b / Total Current Liabilities 11.44b)
Debt / Equity = 2.34 (Debt 27.86b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 11.93b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.84 (Net Debt 26.10b / EBITDA 6.79b)
Debt / FCF = 8.96 (Net Debt 26.10b / FCF TTM 2.91b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 10.09b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.30% (Net Income 2.64b / Total Assets 49.87b)
RoE = 26.18% (Net Income TTM 2.64b / Total Stockholder Equity 10.09b)
RoCE = 11.58% (EBIT 4.07b / Capital Employed (Equity 10.09b + L.T.Debt 25.06b))
RoIC = 10.92% (NOPAT 4.06b / Invested Capital 37.15b)
WACC = 7.16% (E(31.21b)/V(59.07b) * Re(12.60%) + D(27.86b)/V(59.07b) * Rd(1.06%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 12.60% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 5.36%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 52.99% ; FCFE base≈2.24b ; Y1≈1.47b ; Y5≈672.2m
Fair Price DCF = 51.64 (DCF Value 7.52b / Shares Outstanding 145.6m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 58.62 | EPS CAGR: 131.9% | SUE: 2.10 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 75.77 | Revenue CAGR: 31.51% | SUE: 0.01 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for CUK Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle