(CUK) Carnival ADS - Overview
Cruises, Travel, Ships
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 41.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.50% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.40 |
| Alpha | -6.26 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.843 |
| Beta Downside | 1.802 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 43.10% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.96 |
Description: CUK Carnival ADS January 28, 2026
Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE:CUK) is a global cruise operator headquartered in Miami that serves leisure travelers across North America, Europe, Australia and other international markets. It runs four business segments-North America Cruise Operations, Europe Cruise Operations, Cruise Support, and Tour & Other-and markets its voyages through a portfolio of brands that includes Carnival Cruise Line, Princess, Holland America, Cunard, Costa, AIDA, P&O (UK & Australia), and Seabourn. Distribution channels span travel agents, online platforms, vacation planners and onboard “future cruise” consultants, while ancillary assets encompass ports, hotels, railcars and motorcoaches.
Key recent metrics (as of Q2 2024):
• Total revenue $4.2 billion, up 12 % YoY, driven by higher occupancy (average 92 %) and premium-segment pricing.
• Adjusted EBITDA $1.1 billion, yielding an EBITDA margin of 26 %, reflecting improved cost discipline after the 2022-23 fleet modernization.
• Cash and cash equivalents $5.5 billion, with debt-to-equity ≈ 2.3 ×, indicating a solid liquidity buffer but still elevated leverage relative to the broader hospitality sector.
• Forward-looking, the company expects 2024 occupancy to stay above 90 % and ADR (average daily rate) to rise 4-5 % as discretionary spending rebounds and fuel hedging limits cost exposure.
Macro drivers that will shape Carnival’s outlook include U.S. consumer confidence (currently 108.5, above the 5-year average), oil price volatility (WTI ≈ $78 /barrel, influencing fuel-surcharge structures), and the pace of new ship deliveries (three vessels slated for 2025, adding ~1.2 million RT) which could pressure capacity utilization if demand softens.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown, you might explore the ValueRay platform’s cruise-sector analytics.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income: 2.76b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.14 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -33.33% < 20% (prev -32.93%; Δ -0.40% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 5.61b > Net Income 2.76b |
| Net Debt (26.07b) to EBITDA (6.89b): 3.78 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.32 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.40b) vs 12m ago 0.29% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 37.37% > 18% (prev 0.37%; Δ 3699 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 52.85% > 50% (prev 51.01%; Δ 1.84% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.08 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 6.89b / Interest Expense TTM 1.33b) |
Altman Z'' -0.19
| A: -0.17 (Total Current Assets 4.22b - Total Current Liabilities 13.09b) / Total Assets 51.69b |
| B: 0.09 (Retained Earnings 4.82b / Total Assets 51.69b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 4.10b / Avg Total Assets 50.37b) |
| D: 0.09 (Book Value of Equity 3.38b / Total Liabilities 39.40b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.19 = B |
Beneish M -2.97
| DSRI: 1.08 (Receivables 678.0m/590.0m, Revenue 26.62b/25.02b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 37.37% / 37.50%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.05) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 26.62b / 25.02b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 2.76b - CFO 5.61b) / TA 51.69b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.97 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of CUK shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.35%, over one month by -6.34%, over three months by +12.79% and over the past year by +12.65%.
Is CUK a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the CUK price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 35.5 | 24.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 35.5 | 24.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 31.2 | 9.4% |
CUK Fundamental Data Overview January 27, 2026
P/E Forward = 11.4548
P/S = 1.41
P/B = 3.0359
P/EG = 0.9847
Revenue TTM = 26.62b USD
EBIT TTM = 4.10b USD
EBITDA TTM = 6.89b USD
Long Term Debt = 24.04b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.78b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 27.99b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 26.07b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 63.60b USD (37.54b + Debt 27.99b - CCE 1.93b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.08 (Ebit TTM 4.10b / Interest Expense TTM 1.33b)
EV/FCF = 21.83x (Enterprise Value 63.60b / FCF TTM 2.91b)
FCF Yield = 4.58% (FCF TTM 2.91b / Enterprise Value 63.60b)
FCF Margin = 10.95% (FCF TTM 2.91b / Revenue TTM 26.62b)
Net Margin = 10.37% (Net Income TTM 2.76b / Revenue TTM 26.62b)
Gross Margin = 37.37% ((Revenue TTM 26.62b - Cost of Revenue TTM 16.67b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 26.75% (prev 46.22%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.23 (Enterprise Value 63.60b / Total Assets 51.69b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.13% (Interest Expense 315.0m / Debt 27.99b)
Taxrate = 0.43% (12.0m / 2.77b)
NOPAT = 4.08b (EBIT 4.10b * (1 - 0.43%))
Current Ratio = 0.32 (Total Current Assets 4.22b / Total Current Liabilities 13.09b)
Debt / Equity = 2.28 (Debt 27.99b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 12.28b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.78 (Net Debt 26.07b / EBITDA 6.89b)
Debt / FCF = 8.94 (Net Debt 26.07b / FCF TTM 2.91b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 10.85b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.48% (Net Income 2.76b / Total Assets 51.69b)
RoE = 25.45% (Net Income TTM 2.76b / Total Stockholder Equity 10.85b)
RoCE = 11.74% (EBIT 4.10b / Capital Employed (Equity 10.85b + L.T.Debt 24.04b))
RoIC = 10.94% (NOPAT 4.08b / Invested Capital 37.29b)
WACC = 7.76% (E(37.54b)/V(65.53b) * Re(12.71%) + D(27.99b)/V(65.53b) * Rd(1.13%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 12.71% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 5.40%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 71.34% ; FCFF base≈2.24b ; Y1≈1.47b ; Y5≈670.6m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 13.70b - Net Debt 26.07b = -12.37b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 74.41 | EPS CAGR: 163.2% | SUE: -3.02 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 79.44 | Revenue CAGR: 43.75% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-11-30): EPS=2.48 | Chg30d=+0.340 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+10.2% | Growth Revenue=+4.7%
EPS next Year (2027-11-30): EPS=2.70 | Chg30d=+0.240 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+8.9% | Growth Revenue=+3.8%