(CVE) Cenovus Energy - Overview
Stock: Crude Oil, Bitumen, Natural Gas, Diesel, Gasoline
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.57% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 9.71% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 68.63% |
| Payout Consistency | 80.9% |
| Payout Ratio | 48.9% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 33.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -0.82% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.01 |
| Alpha | 24.23 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.154 |
| Beta Downside | 1.695 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 49.57% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.08 |
Description: CVE Cenovus Energy December 17, 2025
Cenovus Energy Inc. (NYSE:CVE) is an integrated upstream-downstream oil and gas company operating in Canada, the United States, and China. Its business is split into Oil Sands, Conventional, Offshore, Canadian Refining, and U.S. Refining segments, with core bitumen and heavy-oil production coming from the Foster Creek, Christina Lake, Sunrise, and Lloydminster projects.
Key operational metrics (as of Q3 2024) show 2024-adjusted net production of ~620 kb/d of oil-equivalent, of which roughly 55 % is bitumen from the oil-sands portfolio. The Lloydminster upgrading complex now runs at ~70 % capacity, delivering ~260,000 bbl/d of synthetic crude and diesel, while the company’s U.S. refining margin averaged $12.5 per barrel in the same quarter.
Financially, Cenovus generated $2.1 billion of free cash flow in 2023, supporting a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.3×, well below the industry median of ~3.0×. The firm’s dividend payout is 60 % of earnings, yielding ~3.8 % at current share price, and it has a $1.5 billion share-repurchase authorization active through 2025.
Sector-wide drivers that will materially affect Cenovus include sustained high WTI crude prices (above $80 / bbl), tightening refinery crack spreads, and the ongoing regulatory push for lower carbon intensity in oil-sands production, which could raise operating costs but also create eligibility for carbon-credit incentives.
For a deeper quantitative view, you may want to explore the CVE dashboard on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 3.14b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.69 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 7.42% < 20% (prev 6.59%; Δ 0.82% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 7.85b > Net Income 3.14b |
| Net Debt (8.13b) to EBITDA (9.28b): 0.88 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.73 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.79b) vs 12m ago -3.79% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 20.70% > 18% (prev 0.22%; Δ 2048 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 102.6% > 50% (prev 105.2%; Δ -2.62% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.64 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 9.28b / Interest Expense TTM 546.0m) |
Altman Z'' 2.93
| A: 0.08 (Total Current Assets 9.77b - Total Current Liabilities 5.65b) / Total Assets 53.57b |
| B: 0.23 (Retained Earnings 12.23b / Total Assets 53.57b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 4.17b / Avg Total Assets 54.13b) |
| D: 1.11 (Book Value of Equity 28.02b / Total Liabilities 25.18b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.93 = A |
Beneish M -3.06
| DSRI: 0.90 (Receivables 2.58b/2.98b, Revenue 55.53b/57.54b) |
| GMI: 1.06 (GM 20.70% / 22.03%) |
| AQI: 1.17 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.09) |
| SGI: 0.97 (Revenue 55.53b / 57.54b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 3.14b - CFO 7.85b) / TA 53.57b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.06 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of CVE shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.31%, over one month by +26.66%, over three months by +23.36% and over the past year by +44.83%.
Is CVE a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 9
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CVE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 19.9 | -3.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 19.9 | -3.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 23.4 | 13.6% |
CVE Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Trailing = 16.0325
P/E Forward = 21.5054
P/S = 0.7206
P/B = 1.8501
P/EG = 0.45
Revenue TTM = 55.53b CAD
EBIT TTM = 4.17b CAD
EBITDA TTM = 9.28b CAD
Long Term Debt = 7.16b CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 342.0m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 10.03b CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 8.13b CAD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 58.96b CAD (50.83b + Debt 10.03b - CCE 1.90b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.64 (Ebit TTM 4.17b / Interest Expense TTM 546.0m)
EV/FCF = 20.88x (Enterprise Value 58.96b / FCF TTM 2.82b)
FCF Yield = 4.79% (FCF TTM 2.82b / Enterprise Value 58.96b)
FCF Margin = 5.09% (FCF TTM 2.82b / Revenue TTM 55.53b)
Net Margin = 5.66% (Net Income TTM 3.14b / Revenue TTM 55.53b)
Gross Margin = 20.70% ((Revenue TTM 55.53b - Cost of Revenue TTM 44.04b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 23.16% (prev 20.05%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.10 (Enterprise Value 58.96b / Total Assets 53.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.67% (Interest Expense 67.0m / Debt 10.03b)
Taxrate = 0.85% (11.0m / 1.30b)
NOPAT = 4.14b (EBIT 4.17b * (1 - 0.85%))
Current Ratio = 1.73 (Total Current Assets 9.77b / Total Current Liabilities 5.65b)
Debt / Equity = 0.35 (Debt 10.03b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 28.37b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.88 (Net Debt 8.13b / EBITDA 9.28b)
Debt / FCF = 2.88 (Net Debt 8.13b / FCF TTM 2.82b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 29.39b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.80% (Net Income 3.14b / Total Assets 53.57b)
RoE = 10.69% (Net Income TTM 3.14b / Total Stockholder Equity 29.39b)
RoCE = 11.42% (EBIT 4.17b / Capital Employed (Equity 29.39b + L.T.Debt 7.16b))
RoIC = 11.26% (NOPAT 4.14b / Invested Capital 36.74b)
WACC = 8.60% (E(50.83b)/V(60.86b) * Re(10.17%) + D(10.03b)/V(60.86b) * Rd(0.67%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 10.17% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.40%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.10% ; FCFF base≈3.87b ; Y1≈3.48b ; Y5≈2.97b
Fair Price DCF = 21.08 (EV 47.89b - Net Debt 8.13b = Equity 39.76b / Shares 1.89b; r=8.60% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -12.58% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -64.42 | EPS CAGR: -55.04% | SUE: -1.73 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 40.68 | Revenue CAGR: 4.93% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.20 | Chg30d=-0.038 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.89 | Chg30d=-0.109 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=-33.6% | Growth Revenue=-23.3%