(CVE) Cenovus Energy - Ratings and Ratios
Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Refined Products
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.74% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 13.55% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 90.53% |
| Payout Consistency | 80.2% |
| Payout Ratio | 46.9% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 29.2% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 48.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 0.77% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.61 |
| Alpha | 3.27 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.08 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.442 |
| Beta | 1.120 |
| Beta Downside | 1.613 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 49.57% |
| Mean DD | 17.95% |
| Median DD | 17.12% |
Description: CVE Cenovus Energy October 14, 2025
Cenovus Energy Inc. (NYSE:CVE) is an integrated oil-and-gas producer headquartered in Calgary, operating across five segments: Oil Sands, Conventional, Offshore, Canadian Refining, and U.S. Refining. The company extracts bitumen and heavy oil primarily in northern Alberta and Saskatchewan, while also producing natural-gas liquids and dry gas in Alberta, British Columbia, and the Northern Corridor.
Key upstream assets include the Foster Creek, Christina Lake, and Sunrise oil-sand projects, plus the Lloydminster thermal and conventional heavy-oil fields. Downstream capacity is anchored by the Lloydminster upgrading and asphalt complex, which converts bitumen into synthetic crude, diesel, and asphalt, and by the Bruderheim crude-by-rail terminal and ethanol plants that support diversified product sales in Canada and the United States.
Assuming the most recent quarterly release (Q2 2024), Cenovus produced roughly 780 k barrels of oil-equivalent per day (≈ 70 % bitumen) and generated $3.2 billion of operating cash flow, while maintaining a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio near 2.1×. These metrics place the firm in the mid-range of Canadian integrated peers on a leverage basis, but its cash-flow conversion remains above the sector average of ~85 %.
Primary economic drivers for Cenovus are crude-oil price movements (WTI ± $5 / bbl materially shifts earnings), Canadian carbon-pricing policy, and the ongoing shift toward higher-margin refined products such as diesel and jet fuel. A sector-wide trend-accelerated by ESG pressure-is the incremental de-risking of oil-sand projects through carbon-capture pilots, which could affect Cenovus’s cost structure if regulatory caps tighten.
For a deeper, data-driven look at how these variables translate into valuation upside, you may find it useful to explore the detailed analyst models on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income (3.14b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 3.33b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -4.69pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 7.42% (prev 6.59%; Δ 0.82pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 (>3.0%) and CFO 7.85b > Net Income 3.14b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (8.13b) to EBITDA (9.28b) ratio: 0.88 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.73 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (1.79b) change vs 12m ago -3.79% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 20.70% (prev 22.03%; Δ -1.33pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 102.6% (prev 105.2%; Δ -2.62pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 7.64 (EBITDA TTM 9.28b / Interest Expense TTM 546.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.93
| (A) 0.08 = (Total Current Assets 9.77b - Total Current Liabilities 5.65b) / Total Assets 53.57b |
| (B) 0.23 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 12.23b / Total Assets 53.57b |
| (C) 0.08 = EBIT TTM 4.17b / Avg Total Assets 54.13b |
| (D) 1.11 = Book Value of Equity 28.02b / Total Liabilities 25.18b |
| Total Rating: 2.93 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 64.81
| 1. Piotroski 5.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 5.16% |
| 3. FCF Margin 5.09% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.35 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 0.88 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 2.78)% |
| 7. RoE 10.69% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 40.68% |
| 9. EPS Trend -16.66% |
What is the price of CVE shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.40%, over one month by +4.99%, over three months by +15.36% and over the past year by +25.06%.
Is CVE a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 8
- Buy: 9
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CVE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 17.1 | -6.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 17.1 | -6.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 20.4 | 11.3% |
CVE Fundamental Data Overview November 26, 2025
P/E Trailing = 14.5285
P/E Forward = 16.1031
P/S = 0.653
P/B = 1.6761
P/EG = 0.45
Beta = 0.722
Revenue TTM = 55.53b CAD
EBIT TTM = 4.17b CAD
EBITDA TTM = 9.28b CAD
Long Term Debt = 7.16b CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 342.0m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 10.03b CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 8.13b CAD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 54.70b CAD (46.57b + Debt 10.03b - CCE 1.90b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.64 (Ebit TTM 4.17b / Interest Expense TTM 546.0m)
FCF Yield = 5.16% (FCF TTM 2.82b / Enterprise Value 54.70b)
FCF Margin = 5.09% (FCF TTM 2.82b / Revenue TTM 55.53b)
Net Margin = 5.66% (Net Income TTM 3.14b / Revenue TTM 55.53b)
Gross Margin = 20.70% ((Revenue TTM 55.53b - Cost of Revenue TTM 44.04b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 23.16% (prev 20.05%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.02 (Enterprise Value 54.70b / Total Assets 53.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.67% (Interest Expense 67.0m / Debt 10.03b)
Taxrate = 0.85% (11.0m / 1.30b)
NOPAT = 4.14b (EBIT 4.17b * (1 - 0.85%))
Current Ratio = 1.73 (Total Current Assets 9.77b / Total Current Liabilities 5.65b)
Debt / Equity = 0.35 (Debt 10.03b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 28.37b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.88 (Net Debt 8.13b / EBITDA 9.28b)
Debt / FCF = 2.88 (Net Debt 8.13b / FCF TTM 2.82b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 29.39b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.86% (Net Income 3.14b / Total Assets 53.57b)
RoE = 10.69% (Net Income TTM 3.14b / Total Stockholder Equity 29.39b)
RoCE = 11.42% (EBIT 4.17b / Capital Employed (Equity 29.39b + L.T.Debt 7.16b))
RoIC = 11.26% (NOPAT 4.14b / Invested Capital 36.74b)
WACC = 8.48% (E(46.57b)/V(56.60b) * Re(10.16%) + D(10.03b)/V(56.60b) * Rd(0.67%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 10.16% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.40%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 68.87% ; FCFE base≈3.87b ; Y1≈3.48b ; Y5≈2.98b
Fair Price DCF = 20.33 (DCF Value 38.36b / Shares Outstanding 1.89b; 5y FCF grow -12.58% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -16.66 | EPS CAGR: 120.3% | SUE: 3.77 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 40.68 | Revenue CAGR: 4.93% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.24 | Chg30d=+0.185 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.07 | Chg30d=+0.255 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-17.1% | Growth Revenue=-9.9%
Additional Sources for CVE Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle