(CVNA) Carvana - Ratings and Ratios
Used Cars, Financing, Logistics, Auction
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 81.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 114% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.87% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.74 |
| Alpha | 6.53 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 4.74 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.319 |
| Beta | 2.388 |
| Beta Downside | 2.969 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 54.24% |
| Mean DD | 16.25% |
| Median DD | 11.41% |
Description: CVNA Carvana September 29, 2025
Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) runs a vertically integrated e-commerce platform that lets U.S. consumers buy and sell used vehicles entirely online. Its end-to-end service chain includes vehicle acquisition, inspection, reconditioning, digital storefront, financing, ancillary products (e.g., warranties), a nationwide logistics network with “car-vans” for delivery, and post-sale support, supplemented by proprietary auction sites for inventory disposition.
As of the most recent quarter (Q2 2024), Carvana reported revenue of roughly $2.1 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, driven by a 9% rise in vehicle unit volume to about 400,000 units sold. Gross profit margin held near 9%, while inventory turnover accelerated to 4.2 × annual, indicating faster movement of reconditioned stock compared with the prior year. These metrics suggest the company is narrowing its historic profitability gap, though cash burn remains a concern at approximately $150 million for the quarter.
The primary economic drivers for Carvana are the health of the U.S. used-car market and macro-financial conditions. A tighter supply of new cars (due to ongoing semiconductor constraints) sustains higher used-car prices, benefitting Carvana’s margins, while rising interest rates increase financing costs for consumers and can suppress demand. Assuming the Fed maintains rates above 5%, Carvana’s financed-sale mix may face pressure, but a gradual easing could revive buyer appetite.
Sector-wide, the shift toward digital retailing continues to reshape automotive distribution. Consumers increasingly value contactless transactions and home delivery, trends that favor Carvana’s model over traditional brick-and-mortar dealers. Competitive pressure from firms like CarMax, Vroom, and emerging fintech-enabled platforms adds upside risk if Carvana can maintain its technology edge and scale logistics efficiently.
For a deeper, data-driven view of Carvana’s valuation dynamics and scenario analysis, consider exploring the detailed dashboards on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (629.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.10b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.06 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -1.71pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 25.82% (prev 20.76%; Δ 5.06pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 (>3.0%) and CFO 666.0m > Net Income 629.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (3.53b) to EBITDA (1.93b) ratio: 1.82 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 4.05 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (146.3m) change vs 12m ago 9.52% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 20.72% (prev 18.71%; Δ 2.01pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 212.1% (prev 170.3%; Δ 41.81pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 2.98 (EBITDA TTM 1.93b / Interest Expense TTM 555.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 4.01
| (A) 0.48 = (Total Current Assets 6.26b - Total Current Liabilities 1.55b) / Total Assets 9.85b |
| (B) -0.09 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -866.0m / Total Assets 9.85b |
| (C) 0.19 = EBIT TTM 1.65b / Avg Total Assets 8.61b |
| (D) -0.13 = Book Value of Equity -866.0m / Total Liabilities 6.90b |
| Total Rating: 4.01 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 72.05
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 0.77% |
| 3. FCF Margin 2.99% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.52 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.82 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 8.65)% |
| 7. RoE 37.15% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 46.27% |
| 9. EPS Trend 86.44% |
What is the price of CVNA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +14.07%, over one month by +0.61%, over three months by -2.73% and over the past year by +40.15%.
Is CVNA a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 6
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the CVNA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 419.7 | 17.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 419.7 | 17.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 391 | 9.4% |
CVNA Fundamental Data Overview November 22, 2025
P/E Trailing = 71.3554
P/E Forward = 50.5051
P/S = 3.718
P/B = 20.4626
P/EG = -0.13
Beta = 3.539
Revenue TTM = 18.27b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.65b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.93b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.81b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 536.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.75b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.53b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 70.95b USD (67.91b + Debt 5.75b - CCE 2.71b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.98 (Ebit TTM 1.65b / Interest Expense TTM 555.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.77% (FCF TTM 546.0m / Enterprise Value 70.95b)
FCF Margin = 2.99% (FCF TTM 546.0m / Revenue TTM 18.27b)
Net Margin = 3.44% (Net Income TTM 629.0m / Revenue TTM 18.27b)
Gross Margin = 20.72% ((Revenue TTM 18.27b - Cost of Revenue TTM 14.48b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 20.33% (prev 21.22%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 7.20 (Enterprise Value 70.95b / Total Assets 9.85b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.17% (Interest Expense 125.0m / Debt 5.75b)
Taxrate = 1.54% (4.00m / 259.0m)
NOPAT = 1.63b (EBIT 1.65b * (1 - 1.54%))
Current Ratio = 4.05 (Total Current Assets 6.26b / Total Current Liabilities 1.55b)
Debt / Equity = 2.52 (Debt 5.75b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.28b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.82 (Net Debt 3.53b / EBITDA 1.93b)
Debt / FCF = 6.46 (Net Debt 3.53b / FCF TTM 546.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.69b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.38% (Net Income 629.0m / Total Assets 9.85b)
RoE = 37.15% (Net Income TTM 629.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.69b)
RoCE = 25.42% (EBIT 1.65b / Capital Employed (Equity 1.69b + L.T.Debt 4.81b))
RoIC = 22.48% (NOPAT 1.63b / Invested Capital 7.24b)
WACC = 13.83% (E(67.91b)/V(73.66b) * Re(14.82%) + D(5.75b)/V(73.66b) * Rd(2.17%) * (1-Tc(0.02)))
Discount Rate = 14.82% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -14.60%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 46.50% ; FCFE base≈541.2m ; Y1≈355.3m ; Y5≈162.5m
Fair Price DCF = 13.05 (DCF Value 1.53b / Shares Outstanding 116.9m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 86.44 | EPS CAGR: 20.94% | SUE: -0.75 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 46.27 | Revenue CAGR: 11.51% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 5
Additional Sources for CVNA Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle