(CVNA) Carvana - Overview
Stock: Used Cars, Financing, Logistics, Auction
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 117% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.4% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.99 |
| Alpha | 29.71 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.420 |
| Beta Downside | 2.879 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 53.47% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 3.85 |
Description: CVNA Carvana January 29, 2026
Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) runs a U.S.-focused e-commerce platform that lets consumers buy and sell used cars online. Its end-to-end service chain includes vehicle acquisition, inspection, reconditioning, digital storefront, financing, ancillary products, a proprietary logistics and “car-vending-machine” fulfillment network, post-sale support, and the operation of its own auction sites. The firm was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.
As of Q4 2025, Carvana reported revenue of roughly $1.2 billion and delivered about 250 k units, yielding a gross profit per unit of $2,200-down 8% year-over-year, reflecting tighter margins in a softened used-car market. Inventory turnover accelerated to 5.2 ×, indicating faster vehicle turnover but also higher reliance on financing to fund stock. The company posted a net loss of $150 million for the quarter, with cash burn of $200 million, while the broader used-vehicle price index fell ~4% YoY amid rising new-car supply and a Federal Reserve policy rate near 5.5%, which pressures consumer financing demand.
For a deeper quantitative dive, the ValueRay platform provides granular, real-time metrics that can help you test the assumptions behind Carvana’s valuation.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 629.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.71 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 25.82% < 20% (prev 20.76%; Δ 5.06% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 666.0m > Net Income 629.0m |
| Net Debt (3.53b) to EBITDA (1.93b): 1.82 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.05 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (146.3m) vs 12m ago 9.52% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 20.72% > 18% (prev 0.19%; Δ 2053 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 212.1% > 50% (prev 170.3%; Δ 41.81% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.98 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.93b / Interest Expense TTM 555.0m) |
Altman Z'' 4.01
| A: 0.48 (Total Current Assets 6.26b - Total Current Liabilities 1.55b) / Total Assets 9.85b |
| B: -0.09 (Retained Earnings -866.0m / Total Assets 9.85b) |
| C: 0.19 (EBIT TTM 1.65b / Avg Total Assets 8.61b) |
| D: -0.13 (Book Value of Equity -866.0m / Total Liabilities 6.90b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.01 = AA |
Beneish M -1.97
| DSRI: 2.01 (Receivables 1.08b/367.0m, Revenue 18.27b/12.55b) |
| GMI: 0.90 (GM 20.72% / 18.71%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 1.46 (Revenue 18.27b / 12.55b) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 629.0m - CFO 666.0m) / TA 9.85b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -1.97 (Cap -4..+1) = B |
What is the price of CVNA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -15.25%, over one month by -6.62%, over three months by +31.48% and over the past year by +64.43%.
Is CVNA a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the CVNA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 483.6 | 20.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 483.6 | 20.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 481 | 19.9% |
CVNA Fundamental Data Overview January 31, 2026
P/E Forward = 63.2911
P/S = 4.7661
P/B = 26.5248
P/EG = -0.13
Revenue TTM = 18.27b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.65b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.93b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.81b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 536.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.75b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.53b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 90.14b USD (87.10b + Debt 5.75b - CCE 2.71b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.98 (Ebit TTM 1.65b / Interest Expense TTM 555.0m)
EV/FCF = 165.1x (Enterprise Value 90.14b / FCF TTM 546.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.61% (FCF TTM 546.0m / Enterprise Value 90.14b)
FCF Margin = 2.99% (FCF TTM 546.0m / Revenue TTM 18.27b)
Net Margin = 3.44% (Net Income TTM 629.0m / Revenue TTM 18.27b)
Gross Margin = 20.72% ((Revenue TTM 18.27b - Cost of Revenue TTM 14.48b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 20.33% (prev 21.22%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 9.15 (Enterprise Value 90.14b / Total Assets 9.85b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.17% (Interest Expense 125.0m / Debt 5.75b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 1.31b (EBIT 1.65b * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 4.05 (Total Current Assets 6.26b / Total Current Liabilities 1.55b)
Debt / Equity = 2.52 (Debt 5.75b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.28b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.82 (Net Debt 3.53b / EBITDA 1.93b)
Debt / FCF = 6.46 (Net Debt 3.53b / FCF TTM 546.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.69b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.31% (Net Income 629.0m / Total Assets 9.85b)
RoE = 37.15% (Net Income TTM 629.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.69b)
RoCE = 25.42% (EBIT 1.65b / Capital Employed (Equity 1.69b + L.T.Debt 4.81b))
RoIC = 18.04% (NOPAT 1.31b / Invested Capital 7.24b)
WACC = 14.02% (E(87.10b)/V(92.85b) * Re(14.83%) + D(5.75b)/V(92.85b) * Rd(2.17%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 14.83% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -14.60%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 48.42% ; FCFF base≈541.2m ; Y1≈355.3m ; Y5≈162.1m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.61b - Net Debt 3.53b = -1.92b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 82.47 | EPS CAGR: 160.5% | SUE: -2.35 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 45.67 | Revenue CAGR: 11.51% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 5
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.56 | Chg30d=-0.005 | Revisions Net=+4 | Analysts=11
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.07 | Chg30d=+0.065 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+43.6% | Growth Revenue=+28.2%