(DBD) Diebold Nixdorf - Overview
Stock: ATM, Cash Recycler, Self-Checkout, Kiosk, Software
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 38.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.44% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.43 |
| Alpha | 49.48 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.163 |
| Beta Downside | 1.226 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 25.76% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 2.56 |
Description: DBD Diebold Nixdorf January 26, 2026
Diebold Nixdorf (NYSE: DBD) supplies hardware and software that automate and digitize banking and retail transactions worldwide, operating through a Banking segment (cash recyclers, intelligent deposit terminals, teller-automation tools, and related services) and a Retail segment (point-of-sale, self-checkout, printing and weighing devices, plus analytics and lifecycle-management services). The firm also offers managed-services and outsourcing solutions that cover remote monitoring, preventive maintenance, and cash-management processing.
According to the company’s FY 2023 Form 10-K, total revenue was $2.18 billion, up ≈ 5 % YoY, driven primarily by a 9 % increase in Banking-segment services revenue and a modest 2 % rise in Retail-segment hardware sales. IDC’s Q4 2023 market-share report places Diebold Nixdorf at roughly **15 %** of the global cash-recycler market, second only to NCR, while Statista estimates that global cash-handling equipment spend will grow at a **4.3 % CAGR** through 2027, supported by persistent cash usage in emerging markets.
Key economic and sector drivers include: (1) **Regulatory pressure on cash-intensive banks** to improve anti-money-laundering monitoring, which fuels demand for intelligent deposit and remote-service platforms; (2) **Rising labor costs and shrinkage in the retail sector**, prompting retailers to adopt self-checkout and automated inventory-management solutions; and (3) **Macro-level inflation and interest-rate environments** that sustain cash-use in consumer transactions, especially in regions where digital adoption lags. If any of these trends reverse-e.g., a rapid shift to fully digital payments in the U.S.-the upside from Diebold Nixdorf’s cash-handling portfolio could be materially curtailed.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of DBD’s valuation relative to its peers, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst-grade metrics can provide useful context.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 50.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.36 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 12.42% < 20% (prev 15.45%; Δ -3.03% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 279.4m > Net Income 50.6m |
| Net Debt (804.8m) to EBITDA (355.4m): 2.26 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.36 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (37.5m) vs 12m ago -0.27% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 24.95% > 18% (prev 0.24%; Δ 2471 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 96.80% > 50% (prev 97.38%; Δ -0.58% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.16 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 355.4m / Interest Expense TTM 99.8m) |
Altman Z'' 1.28
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 1.72b - Total Current Liabilities 1.26b) / Total Assets 3.72b |
| B: 0.01 (Retained Earnings 43.9m / Total Assets 3.72b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 215.3m / Avg Total Assets 3.81b) |
| D: 0.05 (Book Value of Equity 129.1m / Total Liabilities 2.61b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.28 = BB |
Beneish M -3.24
| DSRI: 0.90 (Receivables 580.1m/665.4m, Revenue 3.69b/3.80b) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 24.95% / 24.04%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.47 / AQ_t-1 0.48) |
| SGI: 0.97 (Revenue 3.69b / 3.80b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 50.6m - CFO 279.4m) / TA 3.72b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.24 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of DBD shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.06%, over one month by +7.56%, over three months by +9.47% and over the past year by +63.46%.
Is DBD a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the DBD price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 79 | 10% |
| Analysts Target Price | 79 | 10% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 97.9 | 36.4% |
DBD Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 12.1655
P/S = 0.685
P/B = 2.2466
Revenue TTM = 3.69b USD
EBIT TTM = 215.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 355.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 934.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 48.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.07b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 804.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.32b USD (2.53b + Debt 1.07b - CCE 280.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.16 (Ebit TTM 215.3m / Interest Expense TTM 99.8m)
EV/FCF = 14.45x (Enterprise Value 3.32b / FCF TTM 229.5m)
FCF Yield = 6.92% (FCF TTM 229.5m / Enterprise Value 3.32b)
FCF Margin = 6.22% (FCF TTM 229.5m / Revenue TTM 3.69b)
Net Margin = 1.37% (Net Income TTM 50.6m / Revenue TTM 3.69b)
Gross Margin = 24.95% ((Revenue TTM 3.69b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.77b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 26.23% (prev 25.57%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.89 (Enterprise Value 3.32b / Total Assets 3.72b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.04% (Interest Expense 21.8m / Debt 1.07b)
Taxrate = 18.71% (9.60m / 51.3m)
NOPAT = 175.0m (EBIT 215.3m * (1 - 18.71%))
Current Ratio = 1.36 (Total Current Assets 1.72b / Total Current Liabilities 1.26b)
Debt / Equity = 0.96 (Debt 1.07b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.11b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.26 (Net Debt 804.8m / EBITDA 355.4m)
Debt / FCF = 3.51 (Net Debt 804.8m / FCF TTM 229.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.03b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.33% (Net Income 50.6m / Total Assets 3.72b)
RoE = 4.91% (Net Income TTM 50.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.03b)
RoCE = 10.96% (EBIT 215.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.03b + L.T.Debt 934.0m))
RoIC = 8.93% (NOPAT 175.0m / Invested Capital 1.96b)
WACC = 7.66% (E(2.53b)/V(3.60b) * Re(10.20%) + D(1.07b)/V(3.60b) * Rd(2.04%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 10.20% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -81.65 | Cagr: -0.13%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 73.88% ; FCFF base≈181.4m ; Y1≈131.5m ; Y5≈73.1m
Fair Price DCF = 18.76 (EV 1.48b - Net Debt 804.8m = Equity 672.8m / Shares 35.9m; r=7.66% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -32.43% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 42.00 | EPS CAGR: 130.7% | SUE: 0.29 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 12.68 | Revenue CAGR: -3.00% | SUE: 0.18 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.70 | Chg30d=-0.085 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.02 | Chg30d=+0.060 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+21.7% | Growth Revenue=+2.1%