(DCO) Ducommun - Overview
Stock: Aero Structures, Avionics, Assemblies, Components, Engineering
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 32.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.28% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.14 |
| Alpha | 79.21 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.822 |
| Beta Downside | 0.943 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 27.03% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.21 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: DCO Ducommun January 15, 2026
Ducommun Incorporated (NYSE:DCO) is an engineering-focused contract manufacturer that serves aerospace, defense, industrial, and medical markets from its U.S. base in Costa Mesa, California. The company operates two primary segments: Electronic Systems, which builds cable assemblies, printed-circuit-board (PCB) sub-assemblies, lightning-diversion and radar enclosures, as well as specialized switches, filters, and motion-control motors; and Structural Systems, which designs and fabricates high-performance aluminum, titanium, and Inconel aero-structures such as winglets, engine components, fuselage panels, rotor-blade assemblies, and related composite structures for commercial and military aircraft, as well as space programs.
In FY 2023 Ducommun reported revenue of roughly $1.5 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 8.2% and a free-cash-flow conversion of 1.1 ×, indicating modest profitability despite a competitive contract-manufacturing environment. The firm’s order backlog stood at $1.1 billion at year-end, roughly 73 % of annual revenue, providing a near-term cushion against cyclical demand swings.
Key economic drivers for Ducommun include the U.S. defense budget, which has risen 5 % year-over-year and sustains demand for military airframe and rotor-craft components, and the recovery trajectory of commercial aviation, where aircraft deliveries are projected to grow 4-5 % annually through 2028 after the pandemic-induced slowdown. Additionally, supply-chain constraints on specialty alloys (titanium, Inconel) and the push toward lightweight, fuel-efficient designs create pricing power for qualified Tier-2 suppliers like Ducommun.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of DCO’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, you may find ValueRay’s platform worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: -34.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.06 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 43.05% < 20% (prev 50.25%; Δ -7.19% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 59.7m > Net Income -34.6m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 2.04 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (15.0m) vs 12m ago -0.41% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 25.83% > 18% (prev 0.25%; Δ 2558 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 67.79% > 50% (prev 69.16%; Δ -1.37% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -2.67 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -653.0k / Interest Expense TTM 12.8m) |
Altman Z'' 3.44
| A: 0.28 (Total Current Assets 681.4m - Total Current Liabilities 334.3m) / Total Assets 1.25b |
| B: 0.33 (Retained Earnings 412.1m / Total Assets 1.25b) |
| C: -0.03 (EBIT TTM -34.2m / Avg Total Assets 1.19b) |
| D: 0.70 (Book Value of Equity 419.1m / Total Liabilities 599.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.44 = A |
Beneish M -3.13
| DSRI: 1.06 (Receivables 359.7m/329.2m, Revenue 806.2m/781.5m) |
| GMI: 0.95 (GM 25.83% / 24.64%) |
| AQI: 0.90 (AQ_t 0.33 / AQ_t-1 0.37) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 806.2m / 781.5m) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI -34.6m - CFO 59.7m) / TA 1.25b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.13 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of DCO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.38%, over one month by +12.52%, over three months by +35.56% and over the past year by +96.54%.
Is DCO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the DCO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 121.6 | -1.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 121.6 | -1.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 165.8 | 33.8% |
DCO Fundamental Data Overview February 11, 2026
P/S = 2.2706
P/B = 2.8204
P/EG = 3.339
Revenue TTM = 806.2m USD
EBIT TTM = -34.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = -653.0k USD
Long Term Debt = 215.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 20.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 271.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 220.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.05b USD (1.83b + Debt 271.5m - CCE 50.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -2.67 (Ebit TTM -34.2m / Interest Expense TTM 12.8m)
EV/FCF = 45.90x (Enterprise Value 2.05b / FCF TTM 44.7m)
FCF Yield = 2.18% (FCF TTM 44.7m / Enterprise Value 2.05b)
FCF Margin = 5.54% (FCF TTM 44.7m / Revenue TTM 806.2m)
Net Margin = -4.29% (Net Income TTM -34.6m / Revenue TTM 806.2m)
Gross Margin = 25.83% ((Revenue TTM 806.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 598.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 26.57% (prev 26.57%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.64 (Enterprise Value 2.05b / Total Assets 1.25b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.08% (Interest Expense 2.93m / Debt 271.5m)
Taxrate = 14.66% (5.41m / 36.9m)
NOPAT = -29.1m (EBIT -34.2m * (1 - 14.66%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.04 (Total Current Assets 681.4m / Total Current Liabilities 334.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.42 (Debt 271.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 649.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = -337.8 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt 220.6m / EBITDA -653.0k)
Debt / FCF = 4.94 (Net Debt 220.6m / FCF TTM 44.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 683.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.91% (Net Income -34.6m / Total Assets 1.25b)
RoE = -5.07% (Net Income TTM -34.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 683.1m)
RoCE = -3.80% (EBIT -34.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 683.1m + L.T.Debt 215.0m))
RoIC = -3.17% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -29.1m / Invested Capital 918.8m)
WACC = 7.90% (E(1.83b)/V(2.10b) * Re(8.94%) + D(271.5m)/V(2.10b) * Rd(1.08%) * (1-Tc(0.15)))
Discount Rate = 8.94% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.30%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 76.09% ; FCFF base≈38.2m ; Y1≈32.9m ; Y5≈25.9m
Fair Price DCF = 17.23 (EV 478.1m - Net Debt 220.6m = Equity 257.6m / Shares 14.9m; r=7.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -16.83% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -22.85 | EPS CAGR: -46.23% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 89.79 | Revenue CAGR: 7.01% | SUE: 0.24 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.94 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.45 | Chg30d=+0.013 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+20.9% | Growth Revenue=+8.4%