(DEC) Diversified Energy - NYSE
Sector: Energy | Industry: Oil & Gas Integrated | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 1.052m USD | Total Return: 3.7% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 10.9M
Rev. Trend: 78.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Earnings expected to drop: P/E 1.8 → Forward 5.3
Share dilution 56.6% YoY
High Debt/EBITDA (5.1) with thin interest coverage (0.2)
Interest Coverage Ratio 0.2 is critical
Beneish M-Score 1.00 > -1.5 - likely earnings manipulation
Altman Z'' -0.30 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Below Avwap Earnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Diversified Energy Company plc (DEC) is an independent energy producer focused on the acquisition and management of natural gas and oil assets across the United States. The company operates extensively in the Appalachian and Central regions, with significant footprints in the Barnett, Haynesville, and Anadarko basins. Unlike traditional exploration firms, this business model typically prioritizes the acquisition of mature, low-decline wells to generate steady cash flow through late-stage production optimization.
The company manages the entire midstream and downstream lifecycle for its assets, including transportation and marketing of liquids. In the E&P sector, operators of mature assets often face specific regulatory requirements regarding well plugging and abandonment liabilities. For a deeper look into these operational risks and valuation metrics, consider reviewing the latest data on ValueRay. Diversified Energy is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama, and has been active in the energy markets since 2001.
- Natural gas price volatility impacts revenue and dividend coverage
- Asset retirement obligation costs and regulatory scrutiny affect long-term valuation
- Strategic acquisitions of mature assets drive production and cash flow
- High dividend yield and capital allocation strategy influence investor demand
| Net Income: 395.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -8.81 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -16.71% < 20% (prev -34.50%; Δ 17.79% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 594.2m > Net Income 395.1m |
| Net Debt (2.94b) to EBITDA (577.4m): 5.08 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.60 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (74.5m) vs 12m ago 56.60% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 10.60% > 18% (prev 27.33%; Δ -16.72% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 50.08% > 50% (prev 33.00%; Δ 17.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.21 > 6 (EBIT TTM 164.9m / Interest Expense TTM 774.4m) |
| A: -0.07 (Total Current Assets 650.2m - Total Current Liabilities 1.08b) / Total Assets 6.17b |
| B: -0.08 (Retained Earnings -507.8m / Total Assets 6.17b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 164.9m / Avg Total Assets 5.09b) |
| D: 0.19 (Book Value of Equity 984.1m / Total Liabilities 5.17b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.30 = B |
| DSRI: 0.90 (Receivables 408.4m/234.4m, Revenue 2.55b/1.32b) |
| GMI: 2.58 (GM 27.33% / 10.60%) |
| AQI: 9.57 (AQ_t 0.82 / AQ_t-1 0.09) |
| SGI: 1.93 (Revenue 2.55b / 1.32b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 395.1m - CFO 594.2m) / TA 6.17b) |
| Beneish M = 4.07 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of June 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.73 with a total of 946,336 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.78%,
over one month by -10.86%,
over three months by -4.93% and
over the past year by +3.69%.
Diversified Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.67. Therefore, it is recommended to buy DEC.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 22.4 | 63.4% |
P/E Trailing = 1.8256
P/E Forward = 5.3447
P/S = 0.5718
P/B = 1.4349
Revenue TTM = 2.55b USD
EBIT TTM = 164.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 577.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.65b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 236.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.96b USD (corrected: LT Debt 2.65b + ST Debt 236.6m) + Leases 75.7m
Net Debt = 2.94b USD (calculated: Debt 2.96b - CCE 29.7m)
Enterprise Value = 3.99b USD (1.05b + Debt 2.96b - CCE 29.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.21 (Ebit TTM 164.9m / Interest Expense TTM 774.4m)
EV/FCF = 11.05x (Enterprise Value 3.99b / FCF TTM 360.9m)
FCF Yield = 9.05% (FCF TTM 360.9m / Enterprise Value 3.99b)
FCF Margin = 14.17% (FCF TTM 360.9m / Revenue TTM 2.55b)
Net Margin = 15.51% (Net Income TTM 395.1m / Revenue TTM 2.55b)
Gross Margin = 10.60% ((Revenue TTM 2.55b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.28b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -2.39% (prev -2.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.65 (Enterprise Value 3.99b / Total Assets 6.17b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 26.12% (Interest Expense 774.4m / Debt 2.96b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 130.3m (EBIT 164.9m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.60 (Total Current Assets 650.2m / Total Current Liabilities 1.08b)
Debt / Equity = 3.01 (Debt 2.96b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 984.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.08 (Net Debt 2.94b / EBITDA 577.4m)
Debt / FCF = 8.13 (Net Debt 2.94b / FCF TTM 360.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 784.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.77% (Net Income 395.1m / Total Assets 6.17b)
RoE = 50.38% (Net Income TTM 395.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 784.2m)
RoCE = 4.80% (EBIT 164.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 784.2m + L.T.Debt 2.65b))
RoIC = 2.46% (NOPAT 130.3m / Invested Capital 5.30b)
WACC = 17.35% (E(1.05b)/V(4.02b) * Re(8.10%) + D(2.96b)/V(4.02b) * Rd(26.12%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.10% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 84.11 | Cagr: 29.76%
[DCF] Terminal Value 47.02% ; FCFF base≈451.3m ; Y1≈395.8m ; Y5≈319.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 2.11b - Net Debt 2.94b = -826.0m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
Revenue Correlation: 78.28 | Revenue CAGR: 50.46% | SUE: 1.50 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.40 | Chg30d=-24.17% | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.47 | Chg30d=-20.40% | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.26 | Chg30d=+34.61% | Revisions=N/A | GrowthEPS=-25.9% | GrowthRev=+3.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.61 | Chg30d=+24.33% | Revisions=N/A | GrowthEPS=-19.8% | GrowthRev=+1.6%