(DECK) Deckers Outdoor - Ratings and Ratios
Footwear, Apparel, Accessories, UGG, HOKA
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 43.8% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 65.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.76% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.29 |
| Alpha | -73.83 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.16 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.628 |
| Beta | 1.325 |
| Beta Downside | 0.904 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 64.35% |
| Mean DD | 17.74% |
| Median DD | 7.04% |
Description: DECK Deckers Outdoor October 30, 2025
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE:DECK) designs, markets, and distributes premium footwear, apparel, and accessories across several lifestyle and performance brands-including UGG, HOKA, Teva, Koolaburra, and AHNU-through a mix of wholesale partners, international distributors, and its own direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels such as e-commerce sites and brick-and-mortar stores.
Key recent metrics: FY 2023 revenue reached approximately $3.0 billion, with DTC sales accounting for roughly 30 % of total revenue and growing at a double-digit rate; HOKA’s North-American footwear sales jumped about 25 % YoY, driven by strong demand for running and trail shoes; and the UGG brand continued to outperform in the premium casual segment, especially in China where discretionary spending has rebounded post-pandemic. The broader footwear sector is sensitive to consumer confidence and disposable-income trends, with a projected CAGR of 4-5 % over the next five years, while raw-material cost inflation and supply-chain constraints remain material risk factors.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may want to explore Deckers’ valuation model and scenario analysis on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.0
| Net Income (1.02b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 314.7m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.26 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.69pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 38.19% (prev 39.20%; Δ -1.02pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.28 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.07b > Net Income 1.02b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-1.06b) to EBITDA (1.38b) ratio: -0.77 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 3.07 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (148.6m) change vs 12m ago -2.71% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 57.66% (prev 57.11%; Δ 0.56pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 146.0% (prev 137.0%; Δ 8.99pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 406.8 (EBITDA TTM 1.38b / Interest Expense TTM 3.21m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 9.60
| (A) 0.53 = (Total Current Assets 2.97b - Total Current Liabilities 968.8m) / Total Assets 3.78b |
| (B) 0.59 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 2.25b / Total Assets 3.78b |
| (C) 0.36 = EBIT TTM 1.30b / Avg Total Assets 3.59b |
| (D) 1.67 = Book Value of Equity 2.20b / Total Liabilities 1.32b |
| Total Rating: 9.60 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 83.06
| 1. Piotroski 8.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 8.62% |
| 3. FCF Margin 18.69% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.14 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.77 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 29.93)% |
| 7. RoE 40.31% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 44.58% |
| 9. EPS Trend -45.22% |
What is the price of DECK shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.01%, over one month by -3.63%, over three months by -25.31% and over the past year by -54.53%.
Is DECK a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 8
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 12
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the DECK price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 112 | 28.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 112 | 28.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 76.9 | -11.8% |
DECK Fundamental Data Overview November 20, 2025
P/E Trailing = 12.4473
P/E Forward = 12.837
P/S = 2.3696
P/B = 4.7706
P/EG = 1.4307
Beta = 1.193
Revenue TTM = 5.24b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.30b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.38b USD
Long Term Debt = 350.7m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 75.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 350.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -1.06b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 11.36b USD (12.43b + Debt 350.7m - CCE 1.41b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 406.8 (Ebit TTM 1.30b / Interest Expense TTM 3.21m)
FCF Yield = 8.62% (FCF TTM 979.9m / Enterprise Value 11.36b)
FCF Margin = 18.69% (FCF TTM 979.9m / Revenue TTM 5.24b)
Net Margin = 19.36% (Net Income TTM 1.02b / Revenue TTM 5.24b)
Gross Margin = 57.66% ((Revenue TTM 5.24b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.22b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 56.18% (prev 55.77%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.00 (Enterprise Value 11.36b / Total Assets 3.78b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.27% (Interest Expense 935.0k / Debt 350.7m)
Taxrate = 21.67% (74.2m / 342.4m)
NOPAT = 1.02b (EBIT 1.30b * (1 - 21.67%))
Current Ratio = 3.07 (Total Current Assets 2.97b / Total Current Liabilities 968.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.14 (Debt 350.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.47b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.77 (Net Debt -1.06b / EBITDA 1.38b)
Debt / FCF = -1.09 (Net Debt -1.06b / FCF TTM 979.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.52b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 26.83% (Net Income 1.02b / Total Assets 3.78b)
RoE = 40.31% (Net Income TTM 1.02b / Total Stockholder Equity 2.52b)
RoCE = 45.43% (EBIT 1.30b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.52b + L.T.Debt 350.7m))
RoIC = 40.54% (NOPAT 1.02b / Invested Capital 2.52b)
WACC = 10.61% (E(12.43b)/V(12.78b) * Re(10.90%) + D(350.7m)/V(12.78b) * Rd(0.27%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 10.90% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.03%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 72.72% ; FCFE base≈930.5m ; Y1≈1.15b ; Y5≈1.96b
Fair Price DCF = 143.6 (DCF Value 20.93b / Shares Outstanding 145.7m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -45.22 | EPS CAGR: -33.53% | SUE: 0.19 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 44.58 | Revenue CAGR: 5.09% | SUE: 0.28 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for DECK Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle