DEO Stock Analysis: Diageo | NYSE
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 44.994m USD | 12M Return: -17.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 76.5M
EPS Trend: -10.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 89.3%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Diageo plc is a global producer, marketer, and distributor of alcoholic beverages, headquartered in London and operating across North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Africa. Its broad portfolio spans beer, scotch, gin, vodka, rum, liqueur, wine, whisky, tequila, brandy, and other spirits, alongside ready-to-drink and non-alcoholic offerings. Flagship brands include Johnnie Walker, Don Julio, Guinness, Crown Royal, Smirnoff, Baileys, Captain Morgan, Casamigos, Shui Jing Fang, and McDowells. Originally incorporated in 1886 as Guinness plc, the company adopted its current name in February 1998 and trades on the NYSE as an ADR under the ticker DEO.
As a member of the Consumer Staples sector and the Distillers & Vintners sub-industry, Diageo operates in a defensive segment where demand for alcoholic beverages tends to remain relatively stable through economic cycles. Its vertically integrated model-covering production, marketing, and distribution-along with a heavy weighting toward premium and super-premium spirits brands, supports its global scale and pricing power across multiple categories and price tiers.
- Premium tequila and whisky demand boosts North American revenue
- China de-stocking and Latin America FX headwinds pressure reported sales
- Potential US tariffs on spirits imports threaten margin recovery
| Net Income: 2.41b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -6.84 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 35.84% < 20% (prev 31.14%; Δ 4.70% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 4.12b > Net Income 2.41b |
| Net Debt (22.6b) to EBITDA (5.26b): 4.30 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.60 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (557.8m) vs 12m ago -75.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 59.68% > 18% (prev 60.45%; Δ -0.77% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 40.83% > 50% (prev 43.05%; Δ -2.22% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.41 > 6 (EBIT TTM 4.49b / Interest Expense TTM 1.02b) |
| A: 0.14 (Total Current Assets 18.9b - Total Current Liabilities 11.8b) / Total Assets 50.2b |
| B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 10.9b / Total Assets 50.2b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 4.49b / Avg Total Assets 48.6b) |
| D: 0.32 (Book Value of Equity 11.6b / Total Liabilities 36.5b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.59 = A |
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 4.53b/4.77b, Revenue 19.8b/20.2b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 60.45% / 59.68%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.44 / AQ_t-1 0.46) |
| SGI: 0.98 (Revenue 19.8b / 20.2b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 2.41b - CFO 4.12b) / TA 50.2b) |
| Beneish M = -3.09 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 23, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 84.33 with a total of 866,727 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.58%, over one month by +5.96%, over three months by +5.48% and over the past year by -17.15%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 80.50 (which is 4.5% or 1.9 ATR below the current price).
Diageo has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.50. Therefore, it is recommended to hold DEO.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 101.1 | 19.9% |
P/E Trailing = 18.6928
P/E Forward = 12.4224
P/S = 2.272
P/B = 3.9532
P/EG = 0.8085
Revenue TTM = 19.8b USD
EBIT TTM = 4.49b USD
EBITDA TTM = 5.26b USD
Long Term Debt = 20.2b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.30b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 24.8b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 653.0m
Net Debt = 22.6b USD (calculated: Debt 24.8b - CCE 2.21b)
Enterprise Value = 67.6b USD (45.0b + Debt 24.8b - CCE 2.21b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.41 (Ebit TTM 4.49b / Interest Expense TTM 1.02b)
EV/FCF = 26.78x (Enterprise Value 67.6b / FCF TTM 2.52b)
FCF Yield = 3.73% (FCF TTM 2.52b / Enterprise Value 67.6b)
FCF Margin = 12.73% (FCF TTM 2.52b / Revenue TTM 19.8b)
Net Margin = 12.14% (Net Income TTM 2.41b / Revenue TTM 19.8b)
Gross Margin = 59.68% ((Revenue TTM 19.8b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.00b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 61.04% (prev 58.17%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.35 (Enterprise Value 67.6b / Total Assets 50.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.10% (Interest Expense 1.02b / Debt 24.8b)
Taxrate = 27.68% (982.1m / 3.55b)
NOPAT = 3.25b (EBIT 4.49b * (1 - 27.68%))
Current Ratio = 1.60 (Total Current Assets 18.9b / Total Current Liabilities 11.8b)
Debt / Equity = 2.14 (Debt 24.8b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 11.6b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.30 (Net Debt 22.6b / EBITDA 5.26b)
Debt / FCF = 8.96 (Net Debt 22.6b / FCF TTM 2.52b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 10.7b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.96% (Net Income 2.41b / Total Assets 50.2b)
RoE = 22.40% (Net Income TTM 2.41b / Total Stockholder Equity 10.7b)
RoCE = 14.49% (EBIT 4.49b / Capital Employed (Equity 10.7b + L.T.Debt 20.2b))
RoIC = 7.96% (NOPAT 3.25b / Invested Capital 40.7b)
WACC = 5.11% (E(45.0b)/V(69.8b) * Re(6.29%) + D(24.8b)/V(69.8b) * Rd(4.10%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 6.29% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -34.92 | Cagr: -0.98%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈3.74b ; Y1≈3.28b ; Y5≈2.65b
[DCF] Fair Price = 35.93 (EV 42.6b - Net Debt 22.6b = Equity 20.0b / Shares 555.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -10.72 | EPS CAGR: -14.26% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 89.33 | Revenue CAGR: 18.17% | SUE: 0.89 | # QB: 1
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=6.48 | Chg30d=-0.14% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=-1.0% | GrowthRev=-3.1%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=6.29 | Chg30d=-1.37% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=-2.9% | GrowthRev=-1.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -22% (up=2, down=4)