DEO Stock Analysis: Diageo | NYSE
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 47.980m USD | 12M Return: -9.7% | US25243Q2057 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 83.8M
EPS Trend: -10.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 91.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Diageo plc is a global producer, marketer, and distributor of alcoholic beverages, headquartered in London and operating across North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Africa. Its broad portfolio spans beer, scotch, gin, vodka, rum, liqueur, wine, whisky, tequila, brandy, and other spirits, alongside ready-to-drink and non-alcoholic offerings. Flagship brands include Johnnie Walker, Don Julio, Guinness, Crown Royal, Smirnoff, Baileys, Captain Morgan, Casamigos, Shui Jing Fang, and McDowells. Originally incorporated in 1886 as Guinness plc, the company adopted its current name in February 1998 and trades on the NYSE as an ADR under the ticker DEO.
As a member of the Consumer Staples sector and the Distillers & Vintners sub-industry, Diageo operates in a defensive segment where demand for alcoholic beverages tends to remain relatively stable through economic cycles. Its vertically integrated model-covering production, marketing, and distribution-along with a heavy weighting toward premium and super-premium spirits brands, supports its global scale and pricing power across multiple categories and price tiers.
- Premium tequila and whisky demand boosts North American revenue
- China de-stocking and Latin America FX headwinds pressure reported sales
- Potential US tariffs on spirits imports threaten margin recovery
| Net Income: 1.73b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.48 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 33.09% < 20% (prev 33.38%; Δ -0.29% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 4.39b > Net Income 1.73b |
| Net Debt (20.9b) to EBITDA (6.36b): 3.28 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.60 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (555.9m) vs 12m ago -0.68% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 59.46% > 18% (prev 60.12%; Δ -0.66% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 40.74% > 50% (prev 41.21%; Δ -0.47% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.33 > 6 (EBIT TTM 5.62b / Interest Expense TTM 1.05b) |
| A: 0.14 (Total Current Assets 17.2b - Total Current Liabilities 10.7b) / Total Assets 46.8b |
| B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 10.5b / Total Assets 46.8b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 5.62b / Avg Total Assets 48.1b) |
| D: 0.32 (Book Value of Equity 10.9b / Total Liabilities 33.9b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.76 = A |
| DSRI: 1.17 (Receivables 3.52b/3.13b, Revenue 19.6b/20.3b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 60.12% / 59.46%) |
| AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.44 / AQ_t-1 0.45) |
| SGI: 0.96 (Revenue 19.6b / 20.3b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 1.73b - CFO 4.39b) / TA 46.8b) |
| Beneish M = -2.93 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 19, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 85.59 with a total of 985,202 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.20%, over one month by -5.92%, over three months by +6.39% and over the past year by -9.65%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 83.40 (which is 2.6% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Diageo has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.50. Therefore, it is recommended to hold DEO.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 106.3 | 24.2% |
P/E Trailing = 27.6635
P/E Forward = 12.8535
P/S = 2.4426
P/B = 4.4028
P/EG = 0.5352
Revenue TTM = 19.6b USD
EBIT TTM = 5.62b USD
EBITDA TTM = 6.36b USD
Long Term Debt = 19.1b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.57b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 22.9b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 685.0m
Net Debt = 20.9b USD (calculated: Debt 22.9b - CCE 2.02b)
Enterprise Value = 68.8b USD (48.0b + Debt 22.9b - CCE 2.02b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.33 (Ebit TTM 5.62b / Interest Expense TTM 1.05b)
EV/FCF = 21.57x (Enterprise Value 68.8b / FCF TTM 3.19b)
FCF Yield = 4.64% (FCF TTM 3.19b / Enterprise Value 68.8b)
FCF Margin = 16.30% (FCF TTM 3.19b / Revenue TTM 19.6b)
Net Margin = 8.82% (Net Income TTM 1.73b / Revenue TTM 19.6b)
Gross Margin = 59.46% ((Revenue TTM 19.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 7.94b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 57.67% (prev 61.04%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.47 (Enterprise Value 68.8b / Total Assets 46.8b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.61% (Interest Expense 1.05b / Debt 22.9b)
Taxrate = 23.63% (602.5m / 2.55b)
NOPAT = 4.29b (EBIT 5.62b * (1 - 23.63%))
Current Ratio = 1.60 (Total Current Assets 17.2b / Total Current Liabilities 10.7b)
Debt / Equity = 2.10 (Debt 22.9b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 10.9b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.28 (Net Debt 20.9b / EBITDA 6.36b)
Debt / FCF = 6.54 (Net Debt 20.9b / FCF TTM 3.19b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 11.0b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.59% (Net Income 1.73b / Total Assets 46.8b)
RoE = 15.76% (Net Income TTM 1.73b / Total Stockholder Equity 11.0b)
RoCE = 18.71% (EBIT 5.62b / Capital Employed (Equity 11.0b + L.T.Debt 19.1b))
RoIC = 11.38% (NOPAT 4.29b / Invested Capital 37.7b)
WACC = 5.00% (E(48.0b)/V(70.9b) * Re(5.70%) + D(22.9b)/V(70.9b) * Rd(4.61%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 5.70% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -57.54 | Cagr: -46.39%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.75% ; FCFF base≈3.35b ; Y1≈3.05b ; Y5≈2.65b
[DCF] Fair Price = 38.22 (EV 42.1b - Net Debt 20.9b = Equity 21.2b / Shares 555.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -11.25% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -10.72 | EPS CAGR: -14.26% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 91.28 | Revenue CAGR: 20.86% | SUE: -0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=6.49 | Chg30d=-0.03% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=-0.9% | GrowthRev=-3.1%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=6.77 | Chg30d=+0.77% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+2.7% | GrowthRev=-2.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +10% (up=4, down=3)