(DFH) Dream Finders Homes - Overview
Stock: Single-Family Homes, Luxury Homes, Active-Adult Homes, Custom Homes
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 56.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.4% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.06 |
| Alpha | -28.23 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.929 |
| Beta Downside | 0.441 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 61.17% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.27 |
Description: DFH Dream Finders Homes January 13, 2026
Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (NYSE: DFH) builds and sells single-family residences across the United States through its subsidiary, Dream Finders Homes LLC, operating in four geographic segments-Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and Financial Services.
The company offers a tiered product mix that includes entry-level homes, first- and second-time move-up properties, active-adult communities, and custom-luxury models, marketed under the Dream Finders, DF Luxury, Craft, and Coventry brand names.
Beyond construction, DFH generates ancillary revenue via an in-house insurance agency (providing closing, escrow, and title services) and a mortgage-banking platform that supports its homebuyers, thereby creating a vertically integrated value chain.
Key industry drivers that affect DFH’s outlook include: (1) the prevailing 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which has averaged 6.8% over the past 12 months and directly influences buyer affordability; (2) regional housing inventory trends-DFH’s 2023 backlog stood at roughly 1,400 units, indicating strong demand relative to a national inventory shortage of about 1.2 million homes; and (3) labor cost pressures, with construction wage growth running near 4% YoY, potentially compressing margins if not offset by price appreciation. As of Q4 2023, DFH reported an average selling price of $380 k, a 9% increase year-over-year, and a net cash flow of $45 million, underscoring its capacity to fund ongoing land acquisitions.
For a deeper quantitative view, see the DFH profile on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income: 287.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 12.05 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 19.84% < 20% (prev 21.19%; Δ -1.35% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 62.3m > Net Income 287.7m |
| Net Debt (1.52b) to EBITDA (403.8m): 3.75 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.55 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (100.6m) vs 12m ago -0.10% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 18.89% > 18% (prev 0.19%; Δ 1870 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 130.5% > 50% (prev 121.2%; Δ 9.31% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.78 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 403.8m / Interest Expense TTM 212.0m) |
Altman Z'' 3.76
| A: 0.24 (Total Current Assets 2.60b - Total Current Liabilities 1.68b) / Total Assets 3.84b |
| B: 0.29 (Retained Earnings 1.12b / Total Assets 3.84b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 377.4m / Avg Total Assets 3.58b) |
| D: 0.49 (Book Value of Equity 1.12b / Total Liabilities 2.28b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.76 = AA |
Beneish M -2.14
| DSRI: 1.51 (Receivables 53.0m/30.2m, Revenue 4.67b/4.03b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 18.89% / 19.50%) |
| AQI: 1.43 (AQ_t 0.18 / AQ_t-1 0.12) |
| SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 4.67b / 4.03b) |
| TATA: 0.06 (NI 287.7m - CFO 62.3m) / TA 3.84b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.14 (Cap -4..+1) = BB |
What is the price of DFH shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.42%, over one month by +11.89%, over three months by +4.48% and over the past year by -12.79%.
Is DFH a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the DFH price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 22 | 12.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 22 | 12.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 20.4 | 4.1% |
DFH Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 6.2657
P/S = 0.3656
P/B = 1.2569
Revenue TTM = 4.67b USD
EBIT TTM = 377.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 403.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 590.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.18b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.77b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.52b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.22b USD (1.71b + Debt 1.77b - CCE 251.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.78 (Ebit TTM 377.4m / Interest Expense TTM 212.0m)
EV/FCF = 80.27x (Enterprise Value 3.22b / FCF TTM 40.2m)
FCF Yield = 1.25% (FCF TTM 40.2m / Enterprise Value 3.22b)
FCF Margin = 0.86% (FCF TTM 40.2m / Revenue TTM 4.67b)
Net Margin = 6.16% (Net Income TTM 287.7m / Revenue TTM 4.67b)
Gross Margin = 18.89% ((Revenue TTM 4.67b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.79b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.05% (prev 16.74%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.84 (Enterprise Value 3.22b / Total Assets 3.84b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.44% (Interest Expense 43.2m / Debt 1.77b)
Taxrate = 22.54% (13.7m / 60.8m)
NOPAT = 292.3m (EBIT 377.4m * (1 - 22.54%))
Current Ratio = 1.55 (Total Current Assets 2.60b / Total Current Liabilities 1.68b)
Debt / Equity = 1.16 (Debt 1.77b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.52b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.75 (Net Debt 1.52b / EBITDA 403.8m)
Debt / FCF = 37.73 (Net Debt 1.52b / FCF TTM 40.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.46b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.04% (Net Income 287.7m / Total Assets 3.84b)
RoE = 19.71% (Net Income TTM 287.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.46b)
RoCE = 18.41% (EBIT 377.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.46b + L.T.Debt 590.5m))
RoIC = 10.30% (NOPAT 292.3m / Invested Capital 2.84b)
WACC = 5.55% (E(1.71b)/V(3.47b) * Re(9.34%) + D(1.77b)/V(3.47b) * Rd(2.44%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 9.34% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.69%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈40.2m ; Y1≈26.4m ; Y5≈12.0m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 383.2m - Net Debt 1.52b = -1.13b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -17.28 | EPS CAGR: -42.12% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 63.74 | Revenue CAGR: 3.51% | SUE: -1.62 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.31 | Chg30d=-0.070 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.80 | Chg30d=-0.268 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-18.3% | Growth Revenue=-5.0%