DFH Stock Analysis: Dream Finders Homes | NYSE

Residential Construction | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.449m USD | 12M Return: -44.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Single-Family Homes, Mortgage Banking, Title Insurance, Active Adult
Total Rating 20
Safety 73
Buy Signal -0.67
Residential Construction
Industry Rotation: -13.5
Market Cap: 1.45B
Avg Turnover: 10.9M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility57.3%
VaR 5th Pctl9.23%
VaR vs Median-2.22%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.84
Rel. Str. IBD11.8
Rel. Str. Peer Group12.5
Character TTM
Beta1.360
Beta Downside1.648
Hurst Exponent0.502
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD71.26%
CAGR/Max DD-0.23
CAGR/Mean DD-0.44
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of DFH over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.31, "2021-09": 0.2, "2021-12": 0.55, "2022-03": 0.42, "2022-06": 0.6, "2022-09": 0.64, "2022-12": 0.78, "2023-03": 0.45, "2023-06": 0.65, "2023-09": 0.75, "2023-12": 1, "2024-03": 0.55, "2024-06": 0.81, "2024-09": 0.7, "2024-12": 1.29, "2025-03": 0.54, "2025-06": 0.56, "2025-09": 0.47, "2025-12": 0.58, "2026-03": 0.11,
EPS CAGR: -7.34%
EPS Trend: -35.4%
Last SUE: -0.86
Qual. Beats: -1
Revenue Revenue of DFH over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 365.276101, 2021-09: 362.983638, 2021-12: 852.09, 2022-03: 664.066, 2022-06: 793.134, 2022-09: 785.669, 2022-12: 1099.466, 2023-03: 769.42, 2023-06: 945.339, 2023-09: 895.83, 2023-12: 1137.997, 2024-03: 827.8, 2024-06: 1055.747, 2024-09: 1006.869, 2024-12: 1560.752, 2025-03: 989.871, 2025-06: 1150.505, 2025-09: 969.804, 2025-12: 1212.668, 2026-03: 887.839,
Rev. CAGR: 9.24%
Rev. Trend: 82.5%
Last SUE: 0.55
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage
High Debt While Negative Cash Flow
Fakeout
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 5.4 years of data

Jan -2.7% 10
Feb +2.2% 27
Mar -2.4% 25
Apr +5.9% 30
May +5.6% 10
Jun +8.3% 11
Jul +9.7% 23
Aug +6.1% 24
Sep -9.8% 24
Oct -20.1% 32
Nov +2.2% 20
Dec -10.4% 22

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: DFH Dream Finders Homes

Dream Finders Homes, Inc. (NYSE: DFH) is a U.S. homebuilder headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida, founded in 2008 and publicly listed since January 2021. The company operates through four segments - Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and Financial Services - designing, building, and selling single-family homes that span entry-level, first and second-time move-up, active adult, and custom price points. It markets these homes under multiple brands, including Dream Finders Homes, DF Luxury, Reverie Active Adult Lifestyle, Craft Homes, and Coventry Homes, and distributes them through in-house sales representatives as well as independent real estate brokers.

Beyond construction, DFH operates an integrated Financial Services segment that captures ancillary revenue streams common in the homebuilding industry, offering mortgage banking alongside insurance agency services such as closing, escrow, and title insurance. This vertically integrated model - pairing homebuilding with in-house mortgage and title operations - is a widely adopted approach among U.S. public homebuilders, allowing them to internalize closing-related transactions and improve the home-buying experience for customers.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Mortgage rate declines boost home orders and affordability
  • Southeast and Mid-Atlantic segments drive revenue and backlog growth
  • Financial Services margin expands on rising mortgage capture rates
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 1.0
Net Income: 175.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.05 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 51.26% < 20% (prev 17.15%; Δ 34.11% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.03 > 3% & CFO -105.4m > Net Income 175.6m
Net Debt (1.43b) to EBITDA (261.9m): 5.47 < 3
Current Ratio: 5.42 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (92.4m) vs 12m ago -8.81% < -2%
Gross Margin: 16.37% > 18% (prev 19.00%; Δ -2.63% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 113.1% > 50% (prev 132.3%; Δ -19.12% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.18 > 6 (EBIT TTM 231.7m / Interest Expense TTM 196.3m)
Altman Z'' 5.65
A: 0.54 (Total Current Assets 2.65b - Total Current Liabilities 489.1m) / Total Assets 3.97b
B: 0.30 (Retained Earnings 1.18b / Total Assets 3.97b)
C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 231.7m / Avg Total Assets 3.73b)
D: 0.66 (Book Value of Equity 1.56b / Total Liabilities 2.38b)
Altman-Z'' = 5.65 = AAA
Beneish M -2.58
DSRI: 1.16 (Receivables 32.8m/31.0m, Revenue 4.22b/4.61b)
GMI: 1.16 (GM 19.00% / 16.37%)
AQI: 1.38 (AQ_t 0.20 / AQ_t-1 0.14)
SGI: 0.91 (Revenue 4.22b / 4.61b)
TATA: 0.07 (NI 175.6m - CFO -105.4m) / TA 3.97b)
Beneish M = -2.58 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of DFH shares?

As of July 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 15.75 with a total of 447,685 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.95%, over one month by +5.63%, over three months by +13.80% and over the past year by -44.09%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 13.60 (which is 13.7% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).

Is DFH a buy, sell or hold?

Dream Finders Homes has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold DFH.

  • StrongBuy: 0
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the DFH price?
Analysts Target Price 18 14.3%
Dream Finders Homes (DFH) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 13 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 1.45b (1.45b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 9.2573
P/E Forward = 4.7281
P/S = 0.3433
P/B = 1.024
Revenue TTM = 4.22b USD
EBIT TTM = 231.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 261.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 591.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 591.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.91b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 22.1m
Net Debt = 1.43b USD (calculated: Debt 1.91b - CCE 479.0m)
Enterprise Value = 2.88b USD (1.45b + Debt 1.91b - CCE 479.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.18 (Ebit TTM 231.7m / Interest Expense TTM 196.3m)
EV/FCF = -21.61x (Enterprise Value 2.88b / FCF TTM -133.3m)
FCF Yield = -4.63% (FCF TTM -133.3m / Enterprise Value 2.88b)
FCF Margin = -3.16% (FCF TTM -133.3m / Revenue TTM 4.22b)
Net Margin = 4.16% (Net Income TTM 175.6m / Revenue TTM 4.22b)
Gross Margin = 16.37% ((Revenue TTM 4.22b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.53b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 14.58% (prev 12.77%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.73 (Enterprise Value 2.88b / Total Assets 3.97b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 10.27% (Interest Expense 196.3m / Debt 1.91b)
Taxrate = 24.07% (55.8m / 231.7m)
NOPAT = 176.0m (EBIT 231.7m * (1 - 24.07%))
Current Ratio = 5.42 (Total Current Assets 2.65b / Total Current Liabilities 489.1m)
Debt / Equity = 1.22 (Debt 1.91b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.56b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.47 (Net Debt 1.43b / EBITDA 261.9m)
 Debt / FCF = -10.74 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 1.43b / FCF TTM -133.3m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 1.54b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.71% (Net Income 175.6m / Total Assets 3.97b)
RoE = 11.44% (Net Income TTM 175.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.54b)
RoCE = 10.90% (EBIT 231.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.54b + L.T.Debt 591.7m))
RoIC = 4.55% (NOPAT 176.0m / Invested Capital 3.86b)
WACC = 9.08% (E(1.45b)/V(3.36b) * Re(10.76%) + D(1.91b)/V(3.36b) * Rd(10.27%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 10.76% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -46.90 | Cagr: -4.30%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -133.3m)
 EPS Correlation: -35.40 | EPS CAGR: -7.34% | SUE: -0.86 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 82.51 | Revenue CAGR: 9.24% | SUE: 0.55 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.29 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.33 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.34 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=-37.4% | GrowthRev=-0.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.54 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+15.3% | GrowthRev=+5.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -46% (up=2, down=8)