DINO Stock Analysis: HF Sinclair | NYSE
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 20.605m USD | 12M Return: 107.5% | US4039491000 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 271M
EPS Trend: -6.1%
Qual. Beats: 5
Rev. Trend: -68.4%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) is a US-based independent energy company operating across five segments: Refining, Renewables, Marketing, Lubricants & Specialties, and Midstream. It owns and operates refineries in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Wyoming, Washington, and Utah, primarily serving the Southwest, Rocky Mountain, Pacific Northwest, and adjacent Plains states. Its product portfolio spans gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricants, asphalt, white oils, petrolatums, and waxes. The company supplies fuels to 1,700 branded stations and licenses the Sinclair brand at approximately 350 additional locations, while also providing crude oil and petroleum product transportation, terminalling, and storage through its midstream operations. The oil & gas refining and marketing sub-industry is fundamentally margin-driven, with profitability largely dependent on the spread between crude oil input costs and refined product output prices (commonly referred to as crack spreads), which fluctuate with regional supply-demand conditions and product mix. HF Sinclair was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas, and exports its products to international markets.
- Refining crack spreads swing on seasonal gasoline demand shifts
- Diamond Green Diesel renewable volumes expand driving low-carbon margins
- Capital returns accelerate via dividends and share buybacks
| Net Income: 1.92b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.59 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 11.65% < 20% (prev 8.68%; Δ 2.97% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 2.78b > Net Income 1.92b |
| Net Debt (1.08b) to EBITDA (3.62b): 0.30 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.97 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (179.4m) vs 12m ago -4.72% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 12.78% > 18% (prev 6.64%; Δ 6.14% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 174.3% > 50% (prev 159.5%; Δ 14.80% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.34 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.71b / Interest Expense TTM 189.0m) |
| A: 0.19 (Total Current Assets 7.39b - Total Current Liabilities 3.75b) / Total Assets 19.0b |
| B: 0.35 (Retained Earnings 6.73b / Total Assets 19.0b) |
| C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 2.71b / Avg Total Assets 17.9b) |
| D: 1.19 (Book Value of Equity 10.3b / Total Liabilities 8.64b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.68 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 1.59b/1.41b, Revenue 31.2b/26.9b) |
| GMI: 0.52 (GM 6.64% / 12.78%) |
| AQI: -0.05 (AQ_t -0.01 / AQ_t-1 0.28) |
| SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 31.2b / 26.9b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 1.92b - CFO 2.78b) / TA 19.0b) |
| Beneish M = -4.00 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of September 24, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 106.14 with a total of 4,850,177 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.87%, over one month by +11.52%, over three months by +62.68% and over the past year by +107.54%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 99.80 (which is 6% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
HF Sinclair has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.56. Therefore, it is recommended to hold DINO.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 102.3 | -3.6% |
P/E Trailing = 11.0486
P/E Forward = 16.3399
P/S = 0.6598
P/B = 2.0034
P/EG = 1.9218
Revenue TTM = 31.2b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.71b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.62b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.77b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 90.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.34b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 483.0m
Net Debt = 1.08b USD (calculated: Debt 3.34b - CCE 2.26b)
Enterprise Value = 21.7b USD (20.6b + Debt 3.34b - CCE 2.26b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.34 (Ebit TTM 2.71b / Interest Expense TTM 189.0m)
EV/FCF = 8.49x (Enterprise Value 21.7b / FCF TTM 2.55b)
FCF Yield = 11.78% (FCF TTM 2.55b / Enterprise Value 21.7b)
FCF Margin = 8.18% (FCF TTM 2.55b / Revenue TTM 31.2b)
Net Margin = 6.13% (Net Income TTM 1.92b / Revenue TTM 31.2b)
Gross Margin = 12.78% ((Revenue TTM 31.2b - Cost of Revenue TTM 27.2b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 12.95% (prev 14.35%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.14 (Enterprise Value 21.7b / Total Assets 19.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.65% (Interest Expense 189.0m / Debt 3.34b)
Taxrate = 23.18% (579.0m / 2.50b)
NOPAT = 2.08b (EBIT 2.71b * (1 - 23.18%))
Current Ratio = 1.97 (Total Current Assets 7.39b / Total Current Liabilities 3.75b)
Debt / Equity = 0.33 (Debt 3.34b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 10.3b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.30 (Net Debt 1.08b / EBITDA 3.62b)
Debt / FCF = 0.42 (Net Debt 1.08b / FCF TTM 2.55b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 9.64b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.69% (Net Income 1.92b / Total Assets 19.0b)
RoE = 19.86% (Net Income TTM 1.92b / Total Stockholder Equity 9.64b)
RoCE = 21.84% (EBIT 2.71b / Capital Employed (Equity 9.64b + L.T.Debt 2.77b))
RoIC = 15.11% (NOPAT 2.08b / Invested Capital 13.8b)
WACC = 7.37% (E(20.6b)/V(23.9b) * Re(7.86%) + D(3.34b)/V(23.9b) * Rd(5.65%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 7.86% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.27 | Cagr: -4.44%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈1.86b ; Y1≈2.13b ; Y5≈3.14b
[DCF] Fair Price = 259.5 (EV 47.2b - Net Debt 1.08b = Equity 46.1b / Shares 177.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -6.13 | EPS CAGR: -52.86% | SUE: 1.56 | # QB: 5
Revenue Correlation: -68.39 | Revenue CAGR: -5.73% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=6.48 | Chg30d=+17.67% | Revisions=+75% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=15.98 | Chg30d=+18.54% | Revisions=+79% | GrowthEPS=+215.8% | GrowthRev=+28.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=11.82 | Chg30d=+26.15% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=-26.0% | GrowthRev=-9.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +79% (up=29, down=2)