DINO Stock Analysis: HF Sinclair | NYSE
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 16.450m USD | 12M Return: 84.3% | US4039491000 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 278M
EPS Trend: 5.8%
Qual. Beats: 6
Rev. Trend: -11.0%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.9 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
HF Sinclair Corporation (NYSE: DINO) is a U.S.-based independent energy company headquartered in Dallas, Texas, operating through five segments: Refining, Renewables, Marketing, Lubricants & Specialties, and Midstream. Incorporated in 1947 and trading since 1992, it is classified within the GICS Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sub-industry. As an independent refiner, HF Sinclair concentrates on downstream and midstream activities rather than the integrated exploration-and-production model used by major oil companies, making its earnings closely tied to refining margins (crack spreads) and fuel demand rather than crude oil prices alone.
The company owns and operates refineries across Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Wyoming, Washington, and Utah, marketing refined products primarily in the Southwest, Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and surrounding Plains states. Its product slate spans gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, asphalt, and various specialty chemicals. The inclusion of a Renewables segment reflects the broader refining sectors pivot toward lower-carbon fuels, driven by federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) credits and state-level programs such as Californias Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS).
HF Sinclair supplies fuel to roughly 1,700 branded stations and licenses the Sinclair brand at approximately 350 additional locations, providing a regional retail footprint anchored by the recognizable Sinclair dinosaur branding. The Lubricants & Specialties segment produces base oils and other specialized lubricants, while the Midstream segment offers transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services to the petroleum sector. The company also produces hydrocarbon chemicals such as white oils, petrolatums, and waxes, and exports products internationally.
- Refining margins expand on elevated crack spreads and regional fuel demand
- Renewable diesel segment scales with low-carbon fuel credit revenue
- Branded station network drives Marketing segment fuel sales growth
| Net Income: 3.53b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.17 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 11.81 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 14.43% < 20% (prev 10.01%; Δ 4.41% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 3.76b > Net Income 3.53b |
| Net Debt (508.0m) to EBITDA (5.80b): 0.09 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.27 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (175.9m) vs 12m ago -5.70% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 16.22% > 18% (prev 9.81%; Δ 6.41% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 183.5% > 50% (prev 155.8%; Δ 27.68% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 25.18 > 6 (EBIT TTM 4.83b / Interest Expense TTM 192.0m) |
| A: 0.24 (Total Current Assets 8.99b - Total Current Liabilities 3.97b) / Total Assets 20.7b |
| B: 0.42 (Retained Earnings 8.65b / Total Assets 20.7b) |
| C: 0.25 (EBIT TTM 4.83b / Avg Total Assets 19.0b) |
| D: 1.31 (Book Value of Equity 11.7b / Total Liabilities 8.91b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 6.05 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.23 (Receivables 2.14b/1.35b, Revenue 34.8b/26.9b) |
| GMI: 0.60 (GM 9.81% / 16.22%) |
| AQI: 0.85 (AQ_t 0.23 / AQ_t-1 0.27) |
| SGI: 1.29 (Revenue 34.8b / 26.9b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 3.53b - CFO 3.76b) / TA 20.7b) |
| Beneish M = -3.08 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of November 11, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 98.76 with a total of 2,626,809 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -12.88%, over one month by -19.65%, over three months by +16.61% and over the past year by +84.28%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 88.40 (which is 10.5% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
HF Sinclair has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.41. Therefore, it is recommended to hold DINO.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 2
| Analysts Target Price | 122.8 | 24.4% |
P/E Trailing = 4.9531
P/E Forward = 6.502
P/S = 0.4722
P/B = 1.4036
P/EG = 0.7387
Revenue TTM = 34.8b USD
EBIT TTM = 4.83b USD
EBITDA TTM = 5.80b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.77b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 211.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.84b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 480.0m
Net Debt = 508.0m USD (calculated: Debt 3.84b - CCE 3.33b)
Enterprise Value = 17.0b USD (16.4b + Debt 3.84b - CCE 3.33b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 25.18 (Ebit TTM 4.83b / Interest Expense TTM 192.0m)
EV/FCF = 4.78x (Enterprise Value 17.0b / FCF TTM 3.54b)
FCF Yield = 20.90% (FCF TTM 3.54b / Enterprise Value 17.0b)
FCF Margin = 10.18% (FCF TTM 3.54b / Revenue TTM 34.8b)
Net Margin = 10.13% (Net Income TTM 3.53b / Revenue TTM 34.8b)
Gross Margin = 16.22% ((Revenue TTM 34.8b - Cost of Revenue TTM 29.2b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.03% (prev 12.95%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.82 (Enterprise Value 17.0b / Total Assets 20.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.00% (Interest Expense 192.0m / Debt 3.84b)
Taxrate = 23.55% (1.09b / 4.62b)
NOPAT = 3.70b (EBIT 4.83b * (1 - 23.55%))
Current Ratio = 2.27 (Total Current Assets 8.99b / Total Current Liabilities 3.97b)
Debt / Equity = 0.33 (Debt 3.84b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 11.7b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.09 (Net Debt 508.0m / EBITDA 5.80b)
Debt / FCF = 0.14 (Net Debt 508.0m / FCF TTM 3.54b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 10.2b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 18.58% (Net Income 3.53b / Total Assets 20.7b)
RoE = 34.53% (Net Income TTM 3.53b / Total Stockholder Equity 10.2b)
RoCE = 37.22% (EBIT 4.83b / Capital Employed (Equity 10.2b + L.T.Debt 2.77b))
RoIC = 24.32% (NOPAT 3.70b / Invested Capital 15.2b)
WACC = 6.92% (E(16.4b)/V(20.3b) * Re(7.64%) + D(3.84b)/V(20.3b) * Rd(5.00%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 7.64% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.91 | Cagr: -3.72%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈2.49b ; Y1≈2.86b ; Y5≈4.21b
[DCF] Fair Price = 371.1 (EV 63.3b - Net Debt 508.0m = Equity 62.8b / Shares 169.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 5.83 | EPS CAGR: 104.7% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 6
Revenue Correlation: -11.03 | Revenue CAGR: -1.04% | SUE: 3.34 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=4.84 | Chg30d=+63.97% | Revisions=+70% | Analysts=13
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=24.49 | Chg30d=+44.08% | Revisions=+73% | GrowthEPS=+384.0% | GrowthRev=+37.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=17.85 | Chg30d=+34.99% | Revisions=+80% | GrowthEPS=-27.1% | GrowthRev=-10.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +90% (up=27, down=0)