DX Stock Analysis: Dynex Capital | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.693m USD | 12M Return: -4.9% | US26817Q8868 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 91.1M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 97.0%
Qual. Beats: 5
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Dynex Capital, Inc. is a U.S.-based mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) that invests in residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Its portfolio is split between Agency MBS, which carry a principal guaranty from entities such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and Non-Agency MBS, which lack such government or government-sponsored backing.
The company operates as a REIT for federal income tax purposes and is therefore generally exempt from corporate income tax, provided it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders. Incorporated in 1987 and headquartered in Glen Allen, Virginia, Dynex trades on the NYSE under the ticker DX and is classified within the Mortgage REITs sub-industry.
Mortgage REITs typically generate returns through leverage, funding purchases of MBS with borrowings to capture the spread between asset yields and their cost of capital. As a result, performance in this sub-industry is highly sensitive to interest-rate movements, yield-curve shifts, and credit spreads on Non-Agency holdings.
- Fed rate cuts pressure mortgage REIT net interest margin
- Agency MBS prepayment speeds rise as refinancing wave accelerates
- Repo funding costs rise as leverage amplifies spread compression
| Net Income: 436.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.44 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -2.54k% < 20% (prev -2.19k%; Δ -353.2% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 236.6m > Net Income 436.2m |
| Net Debt (22.0b) to EBITDA (771.9m): 28.55 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.03 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (223.6m) vs 12m ago 97.57% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 52.74% > 18% (prev 91.38%; Δ -38.65% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 4.70% > 50% (prev 3.35%; Δ 1.35% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.19 > 6 (EBIT TTM 763.7m / Interest Expense TTM 639.7m) |
| A: -0.85 (Total Current Assets 711.8m - Total Current Liabilities 23.2b) / Total Assets 26.4b |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -567.2m / Total Assets 26.4b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 763.7m / Avg Total Assets 18.9b) |
| D: 0.14 (Book Value of Equity 3.18b / Total Liabilities 23.2b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -5.25 = D |
As of October 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.84 with a total of 5,491,166 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.55%, over one month by -11.41%, over three months by -14.64% and over the past year by -4.86%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 10.40 (which is 4.1% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Dynex Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.17. Therefore, it is recommended to buy DX.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 13.8 | 26.8% |
P/E Trailing = 3.7543
P/E Forward = 7.8802
P/S = 5.3608
P/B = 0.9944
P/EG = 0.7056
Revenue TTM = 886.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 763.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 771.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 8.37m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 22.6b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 22.6b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 22.0b USD (calculated: Debt 22.6b - CCE 607.6m)
Enterprise Value = 24.7b USD (2.69b + Debt 22.6b - CCE 607.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.19 (Ebit TTM 763.7m / Interest Expense TTM 639.7m)
EV/FCF = 104.5x (Enterprise Value 24.7b / FCF TTM 236.6m)
FCF Yield = 0.96% (FCF TTM 236.6m / Enterprise Value 24.7b)
FCF Margin = 26.68% (FCF TTM 236.6m / Revenue TTM 886.9m)
Net Margin = 49.18% (Net Income TTM 436.2m / Revenue TTM 886.9m)
Gross Margin = 52.74% ((Revenue TTM 886.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 419.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 30.98% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.94 (Enterprise Value 24.7b / Total Assets 26.4b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.83% (Interest Expense 639.7m / Debt 22.6b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 603.3m (EBIT 763.7m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.03 (Total Current Assets 711.8m / Total Current Liabilities 23.2b)
Debt / Equity = 7.13 (Debt 22.6b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.18b)
Debt / EBITDA = 28.55 (Net Debt 22.0b / EBITDA 771.9m)
Debt / FCF = 93.15 (Net Debt 22.0b / FCF TTM 236.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.58b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.31% (Net Income 436.2m / Total Assets 26.4b)
RoE = 16.91% (Net Income TTM 436.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.58b)
RoCE = 29.52% (EBIT 763.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.58b + L.T.Debt 8.37m))
RoIC = 2.34% (NOPAT 603.3m / Invested Capital 25.8b)
WACC = 2.84% (E(2.69b)/V(25.3b) * Re(7.94%) + D(22.6b)/V(25.3b) * Rd(2.83%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.94% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 96.05 | Cagr: 79.82%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈162.4m ; Y1≈186.2m ; Y5≈274.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 4.12b - Net Debt 22.0b = -17.9b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.24 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.96 | Revenue CAGR: 100.8% | SUE: 1.73 | # QB: 5
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.37 | Chg30d=+0.08% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.40 | Chg30d=-0.71% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+79.9% | GrowthRev=+231.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.54 | Chg30d=-1.79% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+10.2% | GrowthRev=+11.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +31% (up=7, down=3)