(DX) Dynex Capital - Ratings and Ratios
Agency MBS, Non-Agency MBS, CMBS, Interest-Only Securities
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 14.13% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 20.50% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -3.32% |
| Payout Consistency | 66.2% |
| Payout Ratio | 67.3% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 18.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 31.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 1.67% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.34 |
| Alpha | 20.79 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.60 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.552 |
| Beta | 0.522 |
| Beta Downside | 0.677 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 29.35% |
| Mean DD | 7.48% |
| Median DD | 5.84% |
Description: DX Dynex Capital November 12, 2025
Dynex Capital Inc. (NYSE:DX) is a mortgage real-estate investment trust (mREIT) that primarily invests in U.S. mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Its portfolio includes agency residential MBS, agency and non-agency commercial MBS (CMBS), as well as interest-only CMBS securities. Agency MBS are backed by guarantees from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, or other U.S. government-sponsored entities, whereas non-agency MBS carry no such guarantee. As a REIT, Dynex generally avoids federal income tax provided it distributes at least 90 % of its taxable earnings to shareholders. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Glen Allen, Virginia.
Key performance metrics that investors watch include the weighted-average coupon (WAC) of the portfolio-currently around 3.1 %-and the dividend yield, which has hovered near 9 % over the past 12 months, reflecting the high-leverage, interest-rate-sensitive nature of the business. Dynex’s net asset value (NAV) per share is heavily influenced by the Fed’s policy rate; a 25 bp hike typically depresses NAV by 1–2 % due to higher financing costs. The mREIT sector as a whole is also sensitive to prepayment speeds, which accelerate when mortgage rates fall, compressing cash-flow timing and potentially reducing yields.
For a deeper dive into Dynex’s risk profile, capital structure, and scenario-based NAV projections, the ValueRay platform offers granular analytics that can help you assess whether the current valuation aligns with your risk tolerance.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income (184.8m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 12.4m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.66pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -5554 % (prev -3069 %; Δ -2485 pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 (>3.0%) and CFO 121.7m <= Net Income 184.8m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (10.95b) to EBITDA (432.9m) ratio: 25.29 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.05 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (136.9m) change vs 12m ago 79.30% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 86.63% (prev 64.54%; Δ 22.09pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 1.88% (prev 2.58%; Δ -0.70pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 0.20 (EBITDA TTM 432.9m / Interest Expense TTM 367.2m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -5.47
| (A) -0.81 = (Total Current Assets 666.1m - Total Current Liabilities 12.17b) / Total Assets 14.16b |
| (B) -0.04 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -542.0m / Total Assets 14.16b |
| (C) 0.01 = EBIT TTM 74.4m / Avg Total Assets 10.99b |
| (D) -0.06 = Book Value of Equity -674.6m / Total Liabilities 12.20b |
| Total Rating: -5.47 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 56.05
| 1. Piotroski 3.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 0.94% |
| 3. FCF Margin 58.76% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 6.01 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 25.29 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 3.35)% |
| 7. RoE 12.02% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 6.30% |
| 9. EPS Trend -11.63% |
What is the price of DX shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.85%, over one month by +5.27%, over three months by +16.69% and over the past year by +30.51%.
Is DX a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the DX price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 14.3 | 1.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 14.3 | 1.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 17 | 21.3% |
DX Fundamental Data Overview November 26, 2025
P/E Trailing = 7.6875
P/E Forward = 6.9156
P/S = 8.6202
P/B = 1.0708
P/EG = -1.31
Beta = 0.964
Revenue TTM = 207.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 74.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 432.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 29.3m USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 11.75b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 11.77b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 10.95b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 12.93b USD (1.99b + Debt 11.77b - CCE 823.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.20 (Ebit TTM 74.4m / Interest Expense TTM 367.2m)
FCF Yield = 0.94% (FCF TTM 121.7m / Enterprise Value 12.93b)
FCF Margin = 58.76% (FCF TTM 121.7m / Revenue TTM 207.0m)
Net Margin = 89.25% (Net Income TTM 184.8m / Revenue TTM 207.0m)
Gross Margin = 86.63% ((Revenue TTM 207.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 27.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 100.0% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.91 (Enterprise Value 12.93b / Total Assets 14.16b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.01% (Interest Expense 119.1m / Debt 11.77b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 58.7m (EBIT 74.4m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.05 (Total Current Assets 666.1m / Total Current Liabilities 12.17b)
Debt / Equity = 6.01 (Debt 11.77b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.96b)
Debt / EBITDA = 25.29 (Net Debt 10.95b / EBITDA 432.9m)
Debt / FCF = 89.99 (Net Debt 10.95b / FCF TTM 121.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.54b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.31% (Net Income 184.8m / Total Assets 14.16b)
RoE = 12.02% (Net Income TTM 184.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.54b)
RoCE = 4.75% (EBIT 74.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.54b + L.T.Debt 29.3m))
RoIC = 5.18% (NOPAT 58.7m / Invested Capital 1.13b)
WACC = 1.83% (E(1.99b)/V(13.76b) * Re(7.94%) + D(11.77b)/V(13.76b) * Rd(1.01%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.94% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 54.58%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.26% ; FCFE base≈79.3m ; Y1≈62.4m ; Y5≈41.0m
Fair Price DCF = 5.21 (DCF Value 764.4m / Shares Outstanding 146.8m; 5y FCF grow -25.45% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -11.63 | EPS CAGR: -14.51% | SUE: -0.04 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 6.30 | Revenue CAGR: 66.10% | SUE: 1.70 | # QB: 1
Additional Sources for DX Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle