(EC) Ecopetrol - Ratings and Ratios
Crude, Natural Gas, Diesel, Jet Fuel, LPG
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 15.41% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 22.60% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 15.14% |
| Payout Consistency | 65.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 0.2% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 30.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 49.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -1.36% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.95 |
| Alpha | 27.05 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.59 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.372 |
| Beta | 0.805 |
| Beta Downside | 1.202 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 38.26% |
| Mean DD | 11.77% |
| Median DD | 9.52% |
Description: EC Ecopetrol October 16, 2025
Ecopetrol S.A. (NYSE: EC) is Colombia’s largest integrated oil and gas company, operating across four core segments: Exploration & Production, Transport & Logistics, Refining & Petrochemicals, and Electric Power Transmission & Toll-Road Concessions. The firm extracts and produces crude oil and natural gas, moves these and refined products through its pipeline network, refines at the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena complexes, and manages a portfolio of power-transmission lines and toll-road assets.
The company’s footprint extends beyond Colombia to other South-American markets, the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, and Asia, giving it exposure to multiple currency regimes and regional demand dynamics.
Key recent metrics (2023-2024) include an average crude output of roughly 800 k bbl/d, refining capacity of about 370 k bbl/d, a debt-to-equity ratio near 0.6, and a dividend yield that has hovered around 6 %-all of which are benchmarked against peers in the Integrated Oil & Gas GICS sub-industry. The firm’s cash-flow generation remains highly sensitive to Brent-linked oil prices and to the Colombian peso’s exchange rate, which together drive earnings volatility.
Primary economic drivers are the global oil price environment (particularly OPEC+ production decisions), domestic Colombian consumption trends, and the regulatory framework governing concessions for toll roads and power transmission. A shift toward renewable energy and stricter emissions standards could pressure the Refining & Petrochemicals segment, while the Transport & Logistics arm benefits from any increase in crude-oil throughput.
For a deeper, data-driven view of Ecopetrol’s valuation and risk profile, you may find the analysis on ValueRay worth a look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.5
| Net Income (11399.00b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 7539.96b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -4.67pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 16.44% (prev 19.13%; Δ -2.69pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 (>3.0%) and CFO 31101.19b > Net Income 11399.00b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (103906.00b) to EBITDA (43123.76b) ratio: 2.41 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.53 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (2.06b) change vs 12m ago 0.05% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 34.64% (prev 33.46%; Δ 1.17pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 42.99% (prev 44.52%; Δ -1.53pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 5.79 (EBITDA TTM 43123.76b / Interest Expense TTM 4570.34b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.93
| (A) 0.07 = (Total Current Assets 59770.00b - Total Current Liabilities 39110.00b) / Total Assets 291872.00b |
| (B) 0.13 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 39228.00b / Total Assets 291872.00b |
| (C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 26466.45b / Avg Total Assets 292291.65b |
| (D) 0.40 = Book Value of Equity 74106.00b / Total Liabilities 184862.00b |
| Total Rating: 1.93 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 60.91
| 1. Piotroski 6.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 7.77% |
| 3. FCF Margin 11.79% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.42 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.41 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 4.75)% |
| 7. RoE 13.32% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -56.89% |
| 9. EPS Trend -19.57% |
What is the price of EC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.49%, over one month by -3.54%, over three months by +6.05% and over the past year by +37.73%.
Is EC a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 3
What are the forecasts/targets for the EC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 9.6 | -2.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 9.6 | -2.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 13.1 | 33.9% |
EC Fundamental Data Overview December 10, 2025
P/E Trailing = 7.6031
P/E Forward = 5.6721
P/S = 0.6179
P/B = 0.9621
P/EG = 0.3
Beta = 0.17
Revenue TTM = 125666.00b COP
EBIT TTM = 26466.45b COP
EBITDA TTM = 43123.76b COP
Long Term Debt = 101815.00b COP (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 12455.00b COP (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 114270.00b COP (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 103906.00b COP (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 190800.09b COP (81822.09b + Debt 114270.00b - CCE 5292.00b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.79 (Ebit TTM 26466.45b / Interest Expense TTM 4570.34b)
FCF Yield = 7.77% (FCF TTM 14821.44b / Enterprise Value 190800.09b)
FCF Margin = 11.79% (FCF TTM 14821.44b / Revenue TTM 125666.00b)
Net Margin = 9.07% (Net Income TTM 11399.00b / Revenue TTM 125666.00b)
Gross Margin = 34.64% ((Revenue TTM 125666.00b - Cost of Revenue TTM 82141.00b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.41% (prev 28.68%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.65 (Enterprise Value 190800.09b / Total Assets 291872.00b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.96% (Interest Expense 2235.61b / Debt 114270.00b)
Taxrate = 31.23% (1710.00b / 5476.00b)
NOPAT = 18201.73b (EBIT 26466.45b * (1 - 31.23%))
Current Ratio = 1.53 (Total Current Assets 59770.00b / Total Current Liabilities 39110.00b)
Debt / Equity = 1.42 (Debt 114270.00b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 80714.00b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.41 (Net Debt 103906.00b / EBITDA 43123.76b)
Debt / FCF = 7.01 (Net Debt 103906.00b / FCF TTM 14821.44b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 85586.47b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.91% (Net Income 11399.00b / Total Assets 291872.00b)
RoE = 13.32% (Net Income TTM 11399.00b / Total Stockholder Equity 85586.47b)
RoCE = 14.12% (EBIT 26466.45b / Capital Employed (Equity 85586.47b + L.T.Debt 101815.00b))
RoIC = 9.28% (NOPAT 18201.73b / Invested Capital 196198.61b)
WACC = 4.53% (E(81822.09b)/V(196092.09b) * Re(8.98%) + D(114270.00b)/V(196092.09b) * Rd(1.96%) * (1-Tc(0.31)))
Discount Rate = 8.98% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 0.00%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 68.46% ; FCFE base≈20309.62b ; Y1≈14574.98b ; Y5≈7963.34b
Fair Price DCF = 63.4k (DCF Value 130343.81b / Shares Outstanding 2.06b; 5y FCF grow -33.24% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -19.57 | EPS CAGR: -9.62% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -56.89 | Revenue CAGR: -1.65% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.17 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.45 | Chg30d=+0.032 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+22.1% | Growth Revenue=-4.5%
Additional Sources for EC Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle