(EC) Ecopetrol - Ratings and Ratios
Crude, Natural Gas, Diesel, Jet Fuel, LPG
EC EPS (Earnings per Share)
EC Revenue
Description: EC Ecopetrol October 16, 2025
Ecopetrol S.A. (NYSE: EC) is Colombia’s largest integrated oil and gas company, operating across four core segments: Exploration & Production, Transport & Logistics, Refining & Petrochemicals, and Electric Power Transmission & Toll-Road Concessions. The firm extracts and produces crude oil and natural gas, moves these and refined products through its pipeline network, refines at the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena complexes, and manages a portfolio of power-transmission lines and toll-road assets.
The company’s footprint extends beyond Colombia to other South-American markets, the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, and Asia, giving it exposure to multiple currency regimes and regional demand dynamics.
Key recent metrics (2023-2024) include an average crude output of roughly 800 k bbl/d, refining capacity of about 370 k bbl/d, a debt-to-equity ratio near 0.6, and a dividend yield that has hovered around 6 %-all of which are benchmarked against peers in the Integrated Oil & Gas GICS sub-industry. The firm’s cash-flow generation remains highly sensitive to Brent-linked oil prices and to the Colombian peso’s exchange rate, which together drive earnings volatility.
Primary economic drivers are the global oil price environment (particularly OPEC+ production decisions), domestic Colombian consumption trends, and the regulatory framework governing concessions for toll roads and power transmission. A shift toward renewable energy and stricter emissions standards could pressure the Refining & Petrochemicals segment, while the Transport & Logistics arm benefits from any increase in crude-oil throughput.
For a deeper, data-driven view of Ecopetrol’s valuation and risk profile, you may find the analysis on ValueRay worth a look.
EC Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 18,811m |
| Sub-Industry | Integrated Oil & Gas |
| IPO / Inception | 2007-08-27 |
EC Stock Ratings
| Growth Rating | 73.0% |
| Fundamental | 62.3% |
| Dividend Rating | 68.6% |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | 17.2% |
| Analyst Rating | 2.55 of 5 |
EC Dividends
| Dividend Yield 12m | 16.26% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 32.10% |
| Annual Growth 5y | 15.14% |
| Payout Consistency | 65.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 0.2% |
EC Growth Ratios
| Growth Correlation 3m | 30.9% |
| Growth Correlation 12m | 82.4% |
| Growth Correlation 5y | 54.6% |
| CAGR 5y | 17.24% |
| CAGR/Max DD 3y (Calmar Ratio) | 0.45 |
| CAGR/Mean DD 3y (Pain Ratio) | 1.45 |
| Sharpe Ratio 12m | 0.79 |
| Alpha | 26.66 |
| Beta | 0.281 |
| Volatility | 30.83% |
| Current Volume | 1416.4k |
| Average Volume 20d | 1898.2k |
| Stop Loss | 8.9 (-3.8%) |
| Signal | 0.02 |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income (12485.00b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 7825.98b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.07 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.55pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 14.17% (prev 15.47%; Δ -1.30pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 (>3.0%) and CFO 33300.20b > Net Income 12485.00b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (110141.00b) to EBITDA (41024.76b) ratio: 2.68 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.45 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (2.06b) change vs 12m ago -0.01% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 34.90% (prev 35.29%; Δ -0.39pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 44.91% (prev 45.70%; Δ -0.79pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 4.34 (EBITDA TTM 41024.76b / Interest Expense TTM 6562.29b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.95
| (A) 0.06 = (Total Current Assets 59170.00b - Total Current Liabilities 40689.00b) / Total Assets 294610.00b |
| (B) 0.14 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 40524.96b / Total Assets 294610.00b |
| (C) 0.10 = EBIT TTM 28471.45b / Avg Total Assets 290458.84b |
| (D) 0.41 = Book Value of Equity 77089.20b / Total Liabilities 189029.00b |
| Total Rating: 1.95 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 62.27
| 1. Piotroski 6.0pt = 1.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield 11.13% = 5.0 |
| 3. FCF Margin 15.25% = 3.81 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.52 = 1.45 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 2.68 = -1.28 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 6.08)% = 7.60 |
| 7. RoE 14.69% = 1.22 |
| 8. Rev. Trend -81.82% = -6.14 |
| 9. EPS Trend -7.96% = -0.40 |
What is the price of EC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.09%, over one month by +0.76%, over three months by +8.82% and over the past year by +39.01%.
Is Ecopetrol a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of EC is around 11.54 USD . This means that EC is currently undervalued and has a potential upside of +24.76% (Margin of Safety).
Is EC a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 3
What are the forecasts/targets for the EC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 9.4 | 1.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 9.4 | 1.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 12.3 | 32.8% |
EC Fundamental Data Overview October 25, 2025
P/E Trailing = 6.4894
P/E Forward = 5.6721
P/S = 0.0001
P/B = 0.9338
P/EG = 0.3
Beta = 0.281
Revenue TTM = 130433.00b COP
EBIT TTM = 28471.45b COP
EBITDA TTM = 41024.76b COP
Long Term Debt = 104619.00b COP (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 15640.00b COP (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 120259.00b COP (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 110141.00b COP (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 178763.59b COP (72844.59b + Debt 120259.00b - CCE 14340.00b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.34 (Ebit TTM 28471.45b / Interest Expense TTM 6562.29b)
FCF Yield = 11.13% (FCF TTM 19895.72b / Enterprise Value 178763.59b)
FCF Margin = 15.25% (FCF TTM 19895.72b / Revenue TTM 130433.00b)
Net Margin = 9.57% (Net Income TTM 12485.00b / Revenue TTM 130433.00b)
Gross Margin = 34.90% ((Revenue TTM 130433.00b - Cost of Revenue TTM 84915.00b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 28.68% (prev 33.99%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.61 (Enterprise Value 178763.59b / Total Assets 294610.00b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.86% (Interest Expense 2235.61b / Debt 120259.00b)
Taxrate = 34.35% (1285.00b / 3741.00b)
NOPAT = 18691.76b (EBIT 28471.45b * (1 - 34.35%))
Current Ratio = 1.45 (Total Current Assets 59170.00b / Total Current Liabilities 40689.00b)
Debt / Equity = 1.52 (Debt 120259.00b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 79225.00b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.68 (Net Debt 110141.00b / EBITDA 41024.76b)
Debt / FCF = 5.54 (Net Debt 110141.00b / FCF TTM 19895.72b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 84976.54b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.24% (Net Income 12485.00b / Total Assets 294610.00b)
RoE = 14.69% (Net Income TTM 12485.00b / Total Stockholder Equity 84976.54b)
RoCE = 15.02% (EBIT 28471.45b / Capital Employed (Equity 84976.54b + L.T.Debt 104619.00b))
RoIC = 9.50% (NOPAT 18691.76b / Invested Capital 196805.92b)
WACC = 3.42% (E(72844.59b)/V(193103.59b) * Re(7.05%) + D(120259.00b)/V(193103.59b) * Rd(1.86%) * (1-Tc(0.34)))
Discount Rate = 7.05% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 0.00%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.96% ; FCFE base≈19038.72b ; Y1≈18626.02b ; Y5≈18912.95b
Fair Price DCF = 163.4k (DCF Value 335964.40b / Shares Outstanding 2.06b; 5y FCF grow -3.17% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -7.96 | EPS CAGR: -63.11% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -81.82 | Revenue CAGR: -12.94% | SUE: -0.04 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for EC Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle