EC Stock Analysis: Ecopetrol | NYSE
Oil & Gas Integrated | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 29.707m USD | 12M Return: 68.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 44.2M
EPS Trend: -99.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -91.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Ecopetrol S.A. (NYSE: EC) is a Colombian integrated energy company operating across four segments: Exploration and Production, Transport and Logistics, Refining and Petrochemicals, and Energy Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. Its upstream segment focuses on oil and gas exploration and production, while its midstream segment transports crude oil, motor fuels, and refined products such as diesel, jet fuel, and biofuels. The downstream segment refines crude oil at the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries and distributes natural gas and LPG. The company also supplies power transmission, IT and telecom services, and operates road and energy infrastructure concessions, giving it a diversified portfolio beyond pure oil and gas. Geographically, Ecopetrol maintains operations across Colombia, the United States, China, Brazil, India, Singapore, Peru, Chile, other South and Central American countries, the Caribbean, and Europe.
Originally incorporated in 1948 as Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos and renamed Ecopetrol S.A. in June 2003, the company is headquartered in Bogotá, Colombia. Integrated oil & gas operators like Ecopetrol combine upstream, midstream, and downstream activities to capture value across the hydrocarbon value chain and reduce exposure to commodity price swings in any single segment.
- Crude oil price swings drive Exploration and Production revenue
- Cartagena and Barrancabermeja refinery utilization sets refining margin trajectory
- Colombian government fiscal and dividend policy shapes capital returns
| Net Income: 8730b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.55 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 10.06% < 20% (prev 11.89%; Δ -1.83% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 29243b > Net Income 8730b |
| Net Debt (96049b) to EBITDA (40968b): 2.34 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.26 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (2.06b) vs 12m ago -0.01% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 32.57% > 18% (prev 36.78%; Δ -4.21% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 39.55% > 50% (prev 44.42%; Δ -4.87% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.20 > 6 (EBIT TTM 25433b / Interest Expense TTM 7943b) |
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 56991b - Total Current Liabilities 45280b) / Total Assets 288246b |
| B: 0.02 (Retained Earnings 4332b / Total Assets 288246b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 25433b / Avg Total Assets 294283b) |
| D: 0.44 (Book Value of Equity 79924b / Total Liabilities 183213b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.35 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.89 (Receivables 29591b/17920b, Revenue 116382b/133391b) |
| GMI: 1.13 (GM 36.78% / 32.57%) |
| AQI: 1.57 (AQ_t 0.43 / AQ_t-1 0.28) |
| SGI: 0.87 (Revenue 116382b / 133391b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 8730b - CFO 29243b) / TA 288246b) |
| Beneish M = -1.94 (Cap -4..+1) = B |
As of July 05, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 14.70 with a total of 2,312,600 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.73%, over one month by -5.65%, over three months by +3.42% and over the past year by +68.27%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 13.70 (which is 6.8% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Ecopetrol has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.55. Therefore, it is recommended to hold EC.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 3
| Analysts Target Price | 13.4 | -9.2% |
Market Cap COP = 99773b (29.7b USD * 3358.5801 USD.COP)
P/E Trailing = 10.3214
P/E Forward = 9.1241
P/S = 0.8891
P/B = 1.2778
P/EG = 0.7707
Revenue TTM = 116382b COP
EBIT TTM = 25433b COP
EBITDA TTM = 40968b COP
Long Term Debt = 98443b COP (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 12234b COP (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 109872b COP (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1506b
Net Debt = 96049b COP (calculated: Debt 109872b - CCE 13823b)
Enterprise Value = 195822b COP (99773b + Debt 109872b - CCE 13823b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.20 (Ebit TTM 25433b / Interest Expense TTM 7943b)
EV/FCF = 11.62x (Enterprise Value 195822b / FCF TTM 16848b)
FCF Yield = 8.60% (FCF TTM 16848b / Enterprise Value 195822b)
FCF Margin = 14.48% (FCF TTM 16848b / Revenue TTM 116382b)
Net Margin = 7.50% (Net Income TTM 8730b / Revenue TTM 116382b)
Gross Margin = 32.57% ((Revenue TTM 116382b - Cost of Revenue TTM 78476b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.84% (prev 29.49%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.68 (Enterprise Value 195822b / Total Assets 288246b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.23% (Interest Expense 7943b / Debt 109872b)
Taxrate = 33.27% (6207b / 18653b)
NOPAT = 16970b (EBIT 25433b * (1 - 33.27%))
Current Ratio = 1.26 (Total Current Assets 56991b / Total Current Liabilities 45280b)
Debt / Equity = 1.37 (Debt 109872b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 79924b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.34 (Net Debt 96049b / EBITDA 40968b)
Debt / FCF = 5.70 (Net Debt 96049b / FCF TTM 16848b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 80883b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.97% (Net Income 8730b / Total Assets 288246b)
RoE = 10.79% (Net Income TTM 8730b / Total Stockholder Equity 80883b)
RoCE = 14.18% (EBIT 25433b / Capital Employed (Equity 80883b + L.T.Debt 98443b))
RoIC = 6.80% (NOPAT 16970b / Invested Capital 249382b)
WACC = 5.74% (E(99773b)/V(209645b) * Re(6.74%) + D(109872b)/V(209645b) * Rd(7.23%) * (1-Tc(0.33)))
Discount Rate = 6.74% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -11.94 | Cagr: -0.00%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈21392b ; Y1≈18759b ; Y5≈15157b
[DCF] Fair Price = 71.6k (EV 243283b - Net Debt 96049b = Equity 147234b / Shares 2.06b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -99.46 | EPS CAGR: -28.19% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -91.32 | Revenue CAGR: -7.97% | SUE: -0.06 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.66 | Chg30d=+6.85% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.43 | Chg30d=-3.33% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.00 | Chg30d=-5.28% | Revisions=+38% | GrowthEPS=+71.2% | GrowthRev=+7.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.61 | Chg30d=+0.06% | Revisions=+38% | GrowthEPS=-19.6% | GrowthRev=-3.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +27% (up=8, down=4)