EC Stock Analysis: Ecopetrol | NYSE

Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Petrochemicals, Refining

Total Rating 47

Safety 27

Buy Signal 0.45

Oil & Gas Integrated
Industry Rotation: -2.2

Market Cap: 34.5B
Avg Turnover: 29.2M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility35.3%

VaR 5^th Pctl6.09%

VaR vs Median4.62%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio1.90

Rel. Str. IBD93.2

Rel. Str. Peer Group83.3

Character TTM

Beta0.043

Beta Downside0.037

Hurst Exponent0.564

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD38.26%

CAGR/Max DD0.90

CAGR/Mean DD3.14

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -27.03%
EPS Trend: -99.1%

Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: -1

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: -6.17%
Rev. Trend: -87.7%

Last SUE: -0.05
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation

Tailwinds

Rs Leader

Idiosyncratic Leader

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan +6.5% 31

Feb -2.1% 8

Mar +2.1% 28

Apr +0.1% 5

May -0.3% 2

Jun +6.4% 6

Jul -3.1% 21

Aug -0.6% 13

Sep -1.3% 16

Oct +0.6% 13

Nov +0.2% 2

Dec +2.3% 27

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: EC Ecopetrol

Ecopetrol S.A. (NYSE: EC) is a Colombian integrated energy company operating across four segments: Exploration and Production, Transport and Logistics, Refining and Petrochemicals, and Energy Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. Its upstream segment focuses on oil and gas exploration and production, while its midstream segment transports crude oil, motor fuels, and refined products such as diesel, jet fuel, and biofuels. The downstream segment refines crude oil at the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries and distributes natural gas and LPG. The company also supplies power transmission, IT and telecom services, and operates road and energy infrastructure concessions, giving it a diversified portfolio beyond pure oil and gas. Geographically, Ecopetrol maintains operations across Colombia, the United States, China, Brazil, India, Singapore, Peru, Chile, other South and Central American countries, the Caribbean, and Europe.

Originally incorporated in 1948 as Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos and renamed Ecopetrol S.A. in June 2003, the company is headquartered in Bogotá, Colombia. Integrated oil & gas operators like Ecopetrol combine upstream, midstream, and downstream activities to capture value across the hydrocarbon value chain and reduce exposure to commodity price swings in any single segment.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Crude oil price swings drive Exploration and Production revenue
Cartagena and Barrancabermeja refinery utilization sets refining margin trajectory
Colombian government fiscal and dividend policy shapes capital returns

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.0

Net Income: 12523b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.64 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 15.74% < 20% (prev 14.17%; Δ 1.58% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 26065b > Net Income 12523b
Net Debt (92163b) to EBITDA (45643b): 2.02 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.51 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (2.06b) vs 12m ago -0.00% < -2%
Gross Margin: 35.76% > 18% (prev 34.90%; Δ 0.86% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 43.51% > 50% (prev 44.27%; Δ -0.77% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.94 > 6 (EBIT TTM 31270b / Interest Expense TTM 7943b)

Altman Z'' 1.83

A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 57640b - Total Current Liabilities 38139b) / Total Assets 274794b
B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 10045b / Total Assets 274794b)
C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 31270b / Avg Total Assets 284702b)
D: 0.49 (Book Value of Equity 82156b / Total Liabilities 168784b)
Altman-Z'' = 1.83 = BBB

Beneish M -1.28

DSRI: 2.83 (Receivables 33690b/12519b, Revenue 123863b/130433b)
GMI: 0.98 (GM 34.90% / 35.76%)
AQI: 1.50 (AQ_t 0.42 / AQ_t-1 0.28)
SGI: 0.95 (Revenue 123863b / 130433b)
TATA: -0.05 (NI 12523b - CFO 26065b) / TA 274794b)
Beneish M = -1.28 (Cap -4..+1) = D

What is the price of EC shares?

As of September 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 17.51 with a total of 1,931,373 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.99%, over one month by +5.48%, over three months by +9.57% and over the past year by +95.94%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 16.00 (which is 8.6% or 2.7 ATR below the current price).

Is EC a buy, sell or hold?

Ecopetrol has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.55. Therefore, it is recommended to hold EC.

StrongBuy: 1
Buy: 0
Hold: 6
Sell: 1
StrongSell: 3

What are the forecasts/targets for the EC price?

Analysts Target Price	13.7	-22%

Ecopetrol (EC) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 27 August 2026

Market Cap USD = 34.5b (34.5b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
Market Cap COP = 108919b (34.5b USD * 3155.48 USD.COP)
P/E Trailing = 11.0461
P/E Forward = 9.1241
P/S = 0.9707
P/B = 1.3949
P/EG = 0.7707
Revenue TTM = 123863b COP
EBIT TTM = 31270b COP
EBITDA TTM = 45643b COP
Long Term Debt = 98443b COP (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 10701b COP (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 102988b COP (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1506b
Net Debt = 92163b COP (calculated: Debt 102988b - CCE 10825b)
Enterprise Value = 201082b COP (108919b + Debt 102988b - CCE 10825b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.94 (Ebit TTM 31270b / Interest Expense TTM 7943b)
EV/FCF = 14.30x (Enterprise Value 201082b / FCF TTM 14059b)
FCF Yield = 6.99% (FCF TTM 14059b / Enterprise Value 201082b)
FCF Margin = 11.35% (FCF TTM 14059b / Revenue TTM 123863b)
Net Margin = 10.11% (Net Income TTM 12523b / Revenue TTM 123863b)
Gross Margin = 35.76% ((Revenue TTM 123863b - Cost of Revenue TTM 79569b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 40.10% (prev 38.84%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.73 (Enterprise Value 201082b / Total Assets 274794b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.71% (Interest Expense 7943b / Debt 102988b)
Taxrate = 34.72% (8797b / 25340b)
NOPAT = 20414b (EBIT 31270b * (1 - 34.72%))
Current Ratio = 1.51 (Total Current Assets 57640b / Total Current Liabilities 38139b)
Debt / Equity = 1.25 (Debt 102988b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 82156b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.02 (Net Debt 92163b / EBITDA 45643b)
Debt / FCF = 6.56 (Net Debt 92163b / FCF TTM 14059b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 81616b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.40% (Net Income 12523b / Total Assets 274794b)
RoE = 15.34% (Net Income TTM 12523b / Total Stockholder Equity 81616b)
RoCE = 17.37% (EBIT 31270b / Capital Employed (Equity 81616b + L.T.Debt 98443b))
RoIC = 8.46% (NOPAT 20414b / Invested Capital 241163b)
WACC = 5.60% (E(108919b)/V(211907b) * Re(6.13%) + D(102988b)/V(211907b) * Rd(7.71%) * (1-Tc(0.35)))
Discount Rate = 6.13% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -28.43 | Cagr: -0.00%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈16393b ; Y1≈14376b ; Y5≈11615b
[DCF] Fair Price = 45.9k (EV 186439b - Net Debt 92163b = Equity 94276b / Shares 2.06b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -99.09 | EPS CAGR: -27.03% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: -87.75 | Revenue CAGR: -6.17% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.43 | Chg30d=-1.60% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.13 | Chg30d=+11.08% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+82.4% | GrowthRev=+2.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.53 | Chg30d=-2.61% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=-28.2% | GrowthRev=-6.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -12% (up=2, down=3)