EC Stock Analysis: Ecopetrol | NYSE

Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Petrochemicals, Logistics

Total Rating 46

Safety 31

Buy Signal 0.46

Oil & Gas Integrated
Industry Rotation: +4.5

Market Cap: 36.6B
Avg Turnover: 24.8M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility34.2%

VaR 5^th Pctl5.86%

VaR vs Median4.12%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio1.79

Rel. Str. IBD90.3

Rel. Str. Peer Group60.7 pctl

Character TTM

Beta0.093

Beta Downside0.029

Hurst Exponent0.571

Choppyness67.0%

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD38.26%

CAGR/Max DD0.75

CAGR/Mean DD2.56

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -27.03%
EPS Trend: -99.1%

Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: -1

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: -6.17%
Rev. Trend: -87.7%

Last SUE: -0.05
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

Rs Leader

Confidence

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan +6.5% 31

Feb -2.1% 8

Mar +2.1% 28

Apr +0.1% 5

May -0.3% 2

Jun +6.4% 6

Jul -3.1% 21

Aug -1.1% 20

Sep -2.3% 20

Oct +0.6% 13

Nov +0.2% 2

Dec +2.3% 27

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: EC Ecopetrol

Ecopetrol S.A. (NYSE: EC) is a Colombian integrated energy company classified within the GICS Energy sector under the Integrated Oil & Gas sub-industry. It operates through four main business segments: Exploration and Production (upstream oil and gas), Transport and Logistics (midstream pipeline transportation of crude oil and refined products), Refining and Petrochemicals (downstream processing at the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries, plus natural gas and LPG distribution), and Energy Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions (energy infrastructure and road concessions). The company has a broad geographic footprint, with operations in Colombia, the United States, China, Brazil, India, Singapore, other Asian countries, Peru, Chile, other South American markets, Central America and the Caribbean, and Europe. Headquartered in Bogotá, Ecopetrol was incorporated in 1948 and trades as a large-cap stock with a market capitalization of approximately $34.1 billion USD, having listed on the NYSE in August 2007.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Brent crude prices decline pressures upstream segment revenue
Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refinery utilization rates impact petrochemical margins
Colombia government dividend demands limit capital allocation flexibility

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.0

Net Income: 12523b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.64 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 15.74% < 20% (prev 14.17%; Δ 1.58% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 26065b > Net Income 12523b
Net Debt (92152b) to EBITDA (45643b): 2.02 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.51 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (2.06b) vs 12m ago -0.00% < -2%
Gross Margin: 35.76% > 18% (prev 34.90%; Δ 0.86% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 43.51% > 50% (prev 44.27%; Δ -0.77% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.94 > 6 (EBIT TTM 31270b / Interest Expense TTM 7943b)

Altman Z'' 1.83

A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 57640b - Total Current Liabilities 38139b) / Total Assets 274794b
B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 10045b / Total Assets 274794b)
C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 31270b / Avg Total Assets 284702b)
D: 0.49 (Book Value of Equity 82156b / Total Liabilities 168784b)
Altman-Z'' = 1.83 = BBB

Beneish M -1.28

DSRI: 2.83 (Receivables 33690b/12519b, Revenue 123863b/130433b)
GMI: 0.98 (GM 34.90% / 35.76%)
AQI: 1.50 (AQ_t 0.42 / AQ_t-1 0.28)
SGI: 0.95 (Revenue 123863b / 130433b)
TATA: -0.05 (NI 12523b - CFO 26065b) / TA 274794b)
Beneish M = -1.28 (Cap -4..+1) = D

What is the price of EC shares?

As of November 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 17.19 with a total of 1,126,397 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.43%, over one month by +4.06%, over three months by +0.88% and over the past year by +95.07%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 16.40 (which is 4.6% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is EC a buy, sell or hold?

Ecopetrol has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.36. Therefore, it is recommended to sell EC.

StrongBuy: 0
Buy: 0
Hold: 7
Sell: 1
StrongSell: 3

What are the forecasts/targets for the EC price?

Analysts Target Price	14.5	-15.8%

Ecopetrol (EC) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 26 October 2026

Market Cap USD = 36.6b (36.6b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
Market Cap COP = 115709b (36.6b USD * 3161.9899902344 USD.COP)
P/E Trailing = 9.6739
P/E Forward = 5.6721
P/S = 0.5672
P/B = 0.9338
P/EG = 0.7707
Revenue TTM = 123863b COP
EBIT TTM = 31270b COP
EBITDA TTM = 45643b COP
Long Term Debt = 93146b COP (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 10701b COP (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 102978b COP (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1496b
Net Debt = 92152b COP (calculated: Debt 102978b - CCE 10825b)
Enterprise Value = 207862b COP (115709b + Debt 102978b - CCE 10825b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.94 (Ebit TTM 31270b / Interest Expense TTM 7943b)
EV/FCF = 14.79x (Enterprise Value 207862b / FCF TTM 14059b)
FCF Yield = 6.76% (FCF TTM 14059b / Enterprise Value 207862b)
FCF Margin = 11.35% (FCF TTM 14059b / Revenue TTM 123863b)
Net Margin = 10.11% (Net Income TTM 12523b / Revenue TTM 123863b)
Gross Margin = 35.76% ((Revenue TTM 123863b - Cost of Revenue TTM 79569b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 40.10% (prev 38.84%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.76 (Enterprise Value 207862b / Total Assets 274794b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 7.71% (Interest Expense 7943b / Debt 102978b)
Taxrate = 34.72% (8797b / 25340b)
NOPAT = 20414b (EBIT 31270b * (1 - 34.72%))
Current Ratio = 1.51 (Total Current Assets 57640b / Total Current Liabilities 38139b)
Debt / Equity = 1.25 (Debt 102978b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 82156b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.02 (Net Debt 92152b / EBITDA 45643b)
Debt / FCF = 6.55 (Net Debt 92152b / FCF TTM 14059b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 81616b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.40% (Net Income 12523b / Total Assets 274794b)
RoE = 15.34% (Net Income TTM 12523b / Total Stockholder Equity 81616b)
RoCE = 17.89% (EBIT 31270b / Capital Employed (Equity 81616b + L.T.Debt 93146b))
RoIC = 8.46% (NOPAT 20414b / Invested Capital 241163b)
WACC = 5.52% (E(115709b)/V(218687b) * Re(5.96%) + D(102978b)/V(218687b) * Rd(7.71%) * (1-Tc(0.35)))
Discount Rate = 5.96% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -28.43 | Cagr: -0.00%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈16393b ; Y1≈14376b ; Y5≈11615b
[DCF] Fair Price = 45.9k (EV 186439b - Net Debt 92152b = Equity 94286b / Shares 2.06b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -99.09 | EPS CAGR: -27.03% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: -87.75 | Revenue CAGR: -6.17% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.59 | Chg30d=+32.99% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.40 | Chg30d=+11.07% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+105.2% | GrowthRev=+7.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.94 | Chg30d=+13.13% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=-19.2% | GrowthRev=-8.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +67% (up=6, down=0)