EFC Stock Analysis: Ellington Financial | NYSE

Residential Mortgages, Commercial Mortgages, Consumer Loans, Reverse Mortgages

Total Rating 33

Safety 24

Buy Signal 0.45

REIT - Mortgage
Industry Rotation: -3.1

Market Cap: 1.67B
Avg Turnover: 14.7M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility17.8%

VaR 5^th Pctl3.23%

VaR vs Median10.4%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.92

Rel. Str. IBD44.7

Rel. Str. Peer Group72.5

Character TTM

Beta0.432

Beta Downside0.362

Hurst Exponent0.502

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD18.86%

CAGR/Max DD0.77

CAGR/Mean DD3.37

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 22.22%
EPS Trend: 82.7%

Last SUE: 1.27
Qual. Beats: 2

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 24.13%
Rev. Trend: 78.2%

Last SUE: 0.87
Qual. Beats: 2

Warnings

Strong Share Dilution

Tailwinds

Avwap Ph Week

Seasonality 11.6 years of data

Jan +0.5% 17

Feb -0.0% 10

Mar -0.5% 8

Apr +0.7% 5

May +1.6% 19

Jun +0.6% 10

Jul -0.2% 25

Aug +0.7% 38

Sep -2.2% 59

Oct -1.9% 27

Nov +2.6% 46

Dec -1.2% 41

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: EFC Ellington Financial

Ellington Financial Inc. (NYSE: EFC) is a specialty finance company that, through its operating partnership, acquires and manages a diversified mix of mortgage-related, consumer-related, corporate-related, and other financial assets in the United States. As a mortgage REIT, EFC operates in a sector that focuses on interest-rate sensitive spread lending and securitized credit assets rather than direct commercial real estate ownership like equity REITs.

The company is organized into two reporting segments: Investment Portfolio and Longbridge. Its Investment Portfolio segment includes residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) backed by prime jumbo, Alt-A, non-QM, manufactured housing, subprime, and single-family-rental loans, as well as agency RMBS, residential and commercial mortgage loans, commercial MBS, consumer loans and related ABS, collateralized loan obligations, mortgage servicing rights-linked investments, derivatives, and strategic debt and equity investments in loan originators. The Longbridge segment focuses on the origination and management of reverse mortgage loans, including related financing, hedging, and servicing activities.

Ellington Financial is structured as a real estate investment trust (REIT) for U.S. federal income tax purposes and is required to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders in the form of dividends, which is a defining feature of the REIT structure. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Old Greenwich, Connecticut, and trades on the NYSE as a small-cap stock in the Mortgage REITs sub-industry of the financials sector.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Mortgage spread compression pressures net interest margin outlook
Longbridge reverse mortgage segment expands fee-based revenue stream
Book value fluctuates with RMBS mark-to-market amid rate volatility

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.0

Net Income: 213.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.23 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -809.2% < 20% (prev -948.4%; Δ 139.2% < -1%)
CFO/TA -0.03 > 3% & CFO -652.0m > Net Income 213.5m
Net Debt (17.5b) to EBITDA (403.2m): 43.47 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.03 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (121.7m) vs 12m ago 32.87% < -2%
Gross Margin: 83.37% > 18% (prev 53.49%; Δ 29.87% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 3.18% > 50% (prev 1.71%; Δ 1.46% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.26 > 6 (EBIT TTM 403.2m / Interest Expense TTM 320.1m)

Altman Z'' -1.34

A: -0.23 (Total Current Assets 163.2m - Total Current Liabilities 4.90b) / Total Assets 20.2b
B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -366.1m / Total Assets 20.2b)
C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 403.2m / Avg Total Assets 18.4b)
D: 0.11 (Book Value of Equity 1.92b / Total Liabilities 18.3b)
Altman-Z'' = -1.34 = CCC

Beneish M -2.91

DSRI: 0.60 (Receivables 288.9m/233.2m, Revenue 585.5m/284.7m)
GMI: 0.64 (GM 53.49% / 83.37%)
AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.99 / AQ_t-1 0.99)
SGI: 2.06 (Revenue 585.5m / 284.7m)
TATA: 0.04 (NI 213.5m - CFO -652.0m) / TA 20.2b)
Beneish M = -2.91 (Cap -4..+1) = A

What is the price of EFC shares?

As of August 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 13.60 with a total of 2,009,124 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.41%, over one month by +1.87%, over three months by +3.00% and over the past year by +20.89%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 13.10 (which is 3.7% or 2.6 ATR below the current price).

Is EFC a buy, sell or hold?

Ellington Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy EFC.

StrongBuy: 2
Buy: 4
Hold: 2
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the EFC price?

Analysts Target Price	14.8	8.7%

Ellington Financial (EFC) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 08 August 2026

Market Cap USD = 1.67b (1.67b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 8.1615
P/E Forward = 9.0744
P/S = 4.1869
P/B = 0.98
P/EG = 0.86
Revenue TTM = 585.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 403.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 403.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 15.2b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 4.90b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.7b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 17.5b USD (calculated: Debt 17.7b - CCE 163.2m)
Enterprise Value = 19.2b USD (1.67b + Debt 17.7b - CCE 163.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.26 (Ebit TTM 403.2m / Interest Expense TTM 320.1m)
EV/FCF = -29.44x (Enterprise Value 19.2b / FCF TTM -652.1m)
FCF Yield = -3.40% (FCF TTM -652.1m / Enterprise Value 19.2b)
FCF Margin = -111.4% (FCF TTM -652.1m / Revenue TTM 585.5m)
Net Margin = 36.47% (Net Income TTM 213.5m / Revenue TTM 585.5m)
Gross Margin = 83.37% ((Revenue TTM 585.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 97.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 88.23% (prev 82.95%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.95 (Enterprise Value 19.2b / Total Assets 20.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.81% (Interest Expense 320.1m / Debt 17.7b)
Taxrate = 2.17% (4.85m / 223.8m)
NOPAT = 394.4m (EBIT 403.2m * (1 - 2.17%))
Current Ratio = 0.03 (Total Current Assets 163.2m / Total Current Liabilities 4.90b)
Debt / Equity = 9.21 (Debt 17.7b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.92b)
Debt / EBITDA = 43.47 (Net Debt 17.5b / EBITDA 403.2m)
Debt / FCF = -26.87 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 17.5b / FCF TTM -652.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.80b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.16% (Net Income 213.5m / Total Assets 20.2b)
RoE = 11.88% (Net Income TTM 213.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.80b)
RoCE = 2.38% (EBIT 403.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.80b + L.T.Debt 15.2b))
RoIC = 1.95% (NOPAT 394.4m / Invested Capital 20.2b)
WACC = 2.27% (E(1.67b)/V(19.4b) * Re(7.50%) + D(17.7b)/V(19.4b) * Rd(1.81%) * (1-Tc(0.02)))
Discount Rate = 7.50% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 91.93 | Cagr: 26.17%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -652.1m)
EPS Correlation: 82.74 | EPS CAGR: 22.22% | SUE: 1.27 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 78.20 | Revenue CAGR: 24.13% | SUE: 0.87 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.47 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.94 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+4.1% | GrowthRev=+30.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.93 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=-0.3% | GrowthRev=+7.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +46% (up=8, down=2)