(EFC) Ellington Financial - Ratings and Ratios
RMBS, CMBS, Consumer Loans, Mortgage Loans, CLOs
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 11.82% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 18.82% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -1.24% |
| Payout Consistency | 89.9% |
| Payout Ratio | 28.3% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 17.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 28.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 1.75% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.05 |
| Alpha | 13.57 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.63 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.611 |
| Beta | 0.560 |
| Beta Downside | 0.624 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 22.52% |
| Mean DD | 5.07% |
| Median DD | 4.44% |
Description: EFC Ellington Financial November 16, 2025
Ellington Financial Inc. (NYSE:EFC) operates through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, as a diversified mortgage-REIT that acquires and manages a broad spectrum of U.S. financial assets-including residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities (RMBS/CMBS), consumer asset-backed securities, mortgage servicing rights, and related derivatives. The business is split between an “Investment Portfolio” segment, which holds the bulk of the securitized assets, and a “Longbridge” segment that focuses on originations, reverse mortgages, and strategic equity stakes in loan-origination platforms. As a REIT, EFC is required to distribute at least 90 % of its taxable income as dividends.
Key operating metrics from the most recent 10-K (FY 2023) show a dividend yield around 9.5 % and a net asset value (NAV) of roughly $10.20 per share, reflecting a modest premium to market price. The portfolio is weighted approximately 60 % toward prime and Alt-A RMBS, 20 % to non-QM and subprime assets, and the remaining 20 % to consumer ABS and mortgage-related derivatives. Leverage sits near 1.5×, and the weighted-average coupon (WAC) on the RMBS holdings is about 5.2 %, making the REIT sensitive to shifts in the Federal Reserve’s policy rate and the broader housing-market cycle.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown, the ValueRay platform offers a granular view of EFC’s risk-adjusted performance metrics, which can help you assess how interest-rate dynamics may impact future distributions.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income (155.3m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 18.1m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -2.81pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -901.1% (prev -750.0%; Δ -151.1pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.04 (>3.0%) and CFO -768.1m <= Net Income 155.3m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-184.8m) to EBITDA (402.3m) ratio: -0.46 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.06 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (101.6m) change vs 12m ago 15.39% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 52.92% (prev 76.25%; Δ -23.34pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 1.78% (prev 1.85%; Δ -0.07pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 0.39 (EBITDA TTM 402.3m / Interest Expense TTM 286.5m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -1.05
| (A) -0.15 = (Total Current Assets 184.8m - Total Current Liabilities 2.90b) / Total Assets 17.84b |
| (B) -0.02 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -384.7m / Total Assets 17.84b |
| (C) 0.01 = EBIT TTM 112.3m / Avg Total Assets 16.90b |
| (D) -0.02 = Book Value of Equity -384.6m / Total Liabilities 16.05b |
| Total Rating: -1.05 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 48.59
| 1. Piotroski 3.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -4.54% |
| 3. FCF Margin data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity 8.82 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.46 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -0.45)% |
| 7. RoE 9.39% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 52.48% |
| 9. EPS Trend -25.94% |
What is the price of EFC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.93%, over one month by +1.18%, over three months by +4.74% and over the past year by +27.64%.
Is EFC a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the EFC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 14.6 | 6.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 14.6 | 6.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 16.8 | 22.1% |
EFC Fundamental Data Overview January 09, 2026
P/E Forward = 9.0744
P/S = 4.591
P/B = 1.0561
P/EG = 0.86
Beta = 0.94
Revenue TTM = 301.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 112.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 402.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 13.50b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.75b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 15.57b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -184.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 16.90b USD (1.51b + Debt 15.57b - CCE 184.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.39 (Ebit TTM 112.3m / Interest Expense TTM 286.5m)
EV/FCF = -22.01x (Enterprise Value 16.90b / FCF TTM -768.1m)
FCF Yield = -4.54% (FCF TTM -768.1m / Enterprise Value 16.90b)
FCF Margin = -255.0% (FCF TTM -768.1m / Revenue TTM 301.2m)
Net Margin = 51.57% (Net Income TTM 155.3m / Revenue TTM 301.2m)
Gross Margin = 52.92% ((Revenue TTM 301.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 141.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 68.68% (prev 75.27%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.95 (Enterprise Value 16.90b / Total Assets 17.84b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.47% (Interest Expense 73.1m / Debt 15.57b)
Taxrate = 2.73% (1.06m / 38.8m)
NOPAT = 109.2m (EBIT 112.3m * (1 - 2.73%))
Current Ratio = 0.06 (Total Current Assets 184.8m / Total Current Liabilities 2.90b)
Debt / Equity = 8.82 (Debt 15.57b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.77b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.46 (Net Debt -184.8m / EBITDA 402.3m)
Debt / FCF = 0.24 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -184.8m / FCF TTM -768.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.65b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.92% (Net Income 155.3m / Total Assets 17.84b)
RoE = 9.39% (Net Income TTM 155.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.65b)
RoCE = 0.74% (EBIT 112.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.65b + L.T.Debt 13.50b))
RoIC = 0.68% (NOPAT 109.2m / Invested Capital 16.11b)
WACC = 1.12% (E(1.51b)/V(17.09b) * Re(7.98%) + D(15.57b)/V(17.09b) * Rd(0.47%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Discount Rate = 7.98% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 18.67%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -768.1m)
EPS Correlation: -25.94 | EPS CAGR: -47.24% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 52.48 | Revenue CAGR: 43.81% | SUE: -0.57 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.46 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+3 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.85 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+5 | Growth EPS=+1.1% | Growth Revenue=+10.9%
Additional Sources for EFC Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle