(EFC) Ellington Financial - Ratings and Ratios
RMBS, CMBS, Consumer Loans, Mortgage Loans, CLOs
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 11.37% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 19.19% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 6.15% |
| Payout Consistency | 89.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 28.3% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 19.0% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 31.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 1.96% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.02 |
| Alpha | 15.47 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.64 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.593 |
| Beta | 0.575 |
| Beta Downside | 0.674 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 22.52% |
| Mean DD | 5.17% |
| Median DD | 4.59% |
Description: EFC Ellington Financial November 16, 2025
Ellington Financial Inc. (NYSE:EFC) operates through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, as a diversified mortgage-REIT that acquires and manages a broad spectrum of U.S. financial assets-including residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities (RMBS/CMBS), consumer asset-backed securities, mortgage servicing rights, and related derivatives. The business is split between an “Investment Portfolio” segment, which holds the bulk of the securitized assets, and a “Longbridge” segment that focuses on originations, reverse mortgages, and strategic equity stakes in loan-origination platforms. As a REIT, EFC is required to distribute at least 90 % of its taxable income as dividends.
Key operating metrics from the most recent 10-K (FY 2023) show a dividend yield around 9.5 % and a net asset value (NAV) of roughly $10.20 per share, reflecting a modest premium to market price. The portfolio is weighted approximately 60 % toward prime and Alt-A RMBS, 20 % to non-QM and subprime assets, and the remaining 20 % to consumer ABS and mortgage-related derivatives. Leverage sits near 1.5×, and the weighted-average coupon (WAC) on the RMBS holdings is about 5.2 %, making the REIT sensitive to shifts in the Federal Reserve’s policy rate and the broader housing-market cycle.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown, the ValueRay platform offers a granular view of EFC’s risk-adjusted performance metrics, which can help you assess how interest-rate dynamics may impact future distributions.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income (155.3m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 18.1m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.04 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -2.81pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -901.1% (prev -750.0%; Δ -151.1pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.04 (>3.0%) and CFO -768.1m <= Net Income 155.3m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-184.8m) to EBITDA (329.1m) ratio: -0.56 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.06 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (101.6m) change vs 12m ago 15.39% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 53.67% (prev 76.25%; Δ -22.58pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 1.78% (prev 1.85%; Δ -0.07pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 0.39 (EBITDA TTM 329.1m / Interest Expense TTM 286.5m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -1.05
| (A) -0.15 = (Total Current Assets 184.8m - Total Current Liabilities 2.90b) / Total Assets 17.84b |
| (B) -0.02 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -384.7m / Total Assets 17.84b |
| (C) 0.01 = EBIT TTM 112.3m / Avg Total Assets 16.90b |
| (D) -0.02 = Book Value of Equity -384.6m / Total Liabilities 16.05b |
| Total Rating: -1.05 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 49.87
| 1. Piotroski 3.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -4.93% |
| 3. FCF Margin data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity 8.09 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.56 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -0.54)% |
| 7. RoE 9.39% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 52.48% |
| 9. EPS Trend 5.82% |
What is the price of EFC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.15%, over one month by +1.31%, over three months by +2.14% and over the past year by +27.18%.
Is EFC a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the EFC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 14.6 | 6.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 14.6 | 6.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 16.9 | 22.9% |
EFC Fundamental Data Overview November 24, 2025
P/E Trailing = 10.4394
P/E Forward = 9.0744
P/S = 4.4838
P/B = 1.0314
P/EG = 0.86
Beta = 0.945
Revenue TTM = 301.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 112.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 329.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 11.82b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 2.45b USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 14.28b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -184.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 15.58b USD (1.48b + Debt 14.28b - CCE 184.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.39 (Ebit TTM 112.3m / Interest Expense TTM 286.5m)
FCF Yield = -4.93% (FCF TTM -768.1m / Enterprise Value 15.58b)
FCF Margin = -255.0% (FCF TTM -768.1m / Revenue TTM 301.2m)
Net Margin = 51.57% (Net Income TTM 155.3m / Revenue TTM 301.2m)
Gross Margin = 53.67% ((Revenue TTM 301.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 139.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 71.64% (prev 75.27%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.87 (Enterprise Value 15.58b / Total Assets 17.84b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.51% (Interest Expense 73.1m / Debt 14.28b)
Taxrate = 2.73% (1.06m / 38.8m)
NOPAT = 109.2m (EBIT 112.3m * (1 - 2.73%))
Current Ratio = 0.06 (Total Current Assets 184.8m / Total Current Liabilities 2.90b)
Debt / Equity = 8.09 (Debt 14.28b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.77b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.56 (Net Debt -184.8m / EBITDA 329.1m)
Debt / FCF = 0.24 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -184.8m / FCF TTM -768.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.65b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.87% (Net Income 155.3m / Total Assets 17.84b)
RoE = 9.39% (Net Income TTM 155.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.65b)
RoCE = 0.83% (EBIT 112.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.65b + L.T.Debt 11.82b))
RoIC = 0.68% (NOPAT 109.2m / Invested Capital 16.11b)
WACC = 1.21% (E(1.48b)/V(15.76b) * Re(8.13%) + D(14.28b)/V(15.76b) * Rd(0.51%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Discount Rate = 8.13% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 18.67%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -768.1m)
EPS Correlation: 5.82 | EPS CAGR: 5.09% | SUE: 1.29 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 52.48 | Revenue CAGR: 43.81% | SUE: -0.57 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.46 | Chg30d=+0.023 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.85 | Chg30d=+0.066 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=+1.1% | Growth Revenue=+10.9%
Additional Sources for EFC Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle