EFC Stock Analysis: Ellington Financial | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.510m USD | 12M Return: -1% | US28852N1090 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 19.0M
EPS Trend: 82.7%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 82.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Ellington Financial Inc. (NYSE: EFC) is a specialty finance company that acquires and manages a diversified portfolio of mortgage-related, consumer-related, corporate-related, and other financial assets across the United States. The company operates through two segments-Investment Portfolio and Longbridge-and invests across a wide range of instruments, including residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities (both agency- and non-agency-backed), residential and commercial mortgage loans, asset-backed securities, collateralized loan obligations, mortgage servicing rights, derivatives, and equity stakes in loan origination companies. The Longbridge segment focuses on reverse mortgage loans and related financial assets, financing, and hedging activities.
The company is structured as a real estate investment trust (REIT) for U.S. federal income tax purposes, which requires it to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders in the form of dividends-a defining feature of the REIT model. As a mortgage REIT, EFC differs from equity REITs in that it generates revenue primarily from interest income and capital gains on financial assets rather than from the ownership and operation of physical real estate. Founded in 2007 and headquartered in Old Greenwich, Connecticut, EFC has been publicly traded since its 2010 IPO and is classified as a small-cap financials stock within the Mortgage REITs sub-industry.
- Net interest margin compresses on Fed rate cuts and faster prepayments
- Longbridge reverse mortgage segment drives fee income and loan growth
- Book value pressured by RMBS mark-to-market on interest rate volatility
| Net Income: 222.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.07 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -417.8% < 20% (prev 40.16%; Δ -458.0% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.02 > 3% & CFO -327.1m > Net Income 222.2m |
| Net Debt (18.2b) to EBITDA (513.4m): 35.53 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.08 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (125.6m) vs 12m ago 31.06% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 83.65% > 18% (prev 52.09%; Δ 31.56% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 3.54% > 50% (prev 1.67%; Δ 1.87% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.48 > 6 (EBIT TTM 513.4m / Interest Expense TTM 346.5m) |
| A: -0.13 (Total Current Assets 247.5m - Total Current Liabilities 3.06b) / Total Assets 21.0b |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -360.9m / Total Assets 21.0b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 513.4m / Avg Total Assets 19.1b) |
| D: 0.10 (Book Value of Equity 1.97b / Total Liabilities 19.0b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.65 = B |
As of October 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 11.67 with a total of 1,887,427 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.15%, over one month by -11.84%, over three months by -11.44% and over the past year by -1.03%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 11.30 (which is 3.2% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Ellington Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy EFC.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 14.9 | 27.3% |
P/E Trailing = 7.1429
P/E Forward = 9.0744
P/S = 3.5011
P/B = 0.9165
P/EG = 0.86
Revenue TTM = 674.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 513.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 513.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 15.2b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 3.06b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 18.5b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 18.2b USD (calculated: Debt 18.5b - CCE 247.5m)
Enterprise Value = 19.7b USD (1.51b + Debt 18.5b - CCE 247.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.48 (Ebit TTM 513.4m / Interest Expense TTM 346.5m)
EV/FCF = -60.34x (Enterprise Value 19.7b / FCF TTM -327.3m)
FCF Yield = -1.66% (FCF TTM -327.3m / Enterprise Value 19.7b)
FCF Margin = -48.55% (FCF TTM -327.3m / Revenue TTM 674.1m)
Net Margin = 32.95% (Net Income TTM 222.2m / Revenue TTM 674.1m)
Gross Margin = 83.65% ((Revenue TTM 674.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 110.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 80.46% (prev 88.23%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.94 (Enterprise Value 19.7b / Total Assets 21.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.87% (Interest Expense 346.5m / Debt 18.5b)
Taxrate = 1.50% (3.43m / 229.3m)
NOPAT = 505.7m (EBIT 513.4m * (1 - 1.50%))
Current Ratio = 0.08 (Total Current Assets 247.5m / Total Current Liabilities 3.06b)
Debt / Equity = 9.40 (Debt 18.5b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.97b)
Debt / EBITDA = 35.53 (Net Debt 18.2b / EBITDA 513.4m)
Debt / FCF = -55.73 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 18.2b / FCF TTM -327.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.87b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.17% (Net Income 222.2m / Total Assets 21.0b)
RoE = 11.87% (Net Income TTM 222.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.87b)
RoCE = 3.01% (EBIT 513.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.87b + L.T.Debt 15.2b))
RoIC = 2.41% (NOPAT 505.7m / Invested Capital 21.0b)
WACC = 2.28% (E(1.51b)/V(20.0b) * Re(7.55%) + D(18.5b)/V(20.0b) * Rd(1.87%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 7.55% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 91.32 | Cagr: 19.30%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -327.3m)
EPS Correlation: 82.74 | EPS CAGR: 22.22% | SUE: 1.27 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 82.48 | Revenue CAGR: 34.57% | SUE: 0.16 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.47 | Chg30d=+0.04% | Revisions=+12% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.09 | Chg30d=+7.96% | Revisions=+67% | GrowthEPS=+12.4% | GrowthRev=+37.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.98 | Chg30d=+2.48% | Revisions=+44% | GrowthEPS=-5.4% | GrowthRev=+10.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +55% (up=14, down=3)