(EFC) Ellington Financial - Overview
Stock: RMBS, Mortgage-Backed Securities, Consumer Loans, Reverse Mortgages, CLOs
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 11.79% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 18.14% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -1.24% |
| Payout Consistency | 90.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 37.4% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 29.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 1.43% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.54 |
| Alpha | 4.60 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.561 |
| Beta Downside | 0.623 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 20.50% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.55 |
Description: EFC Ellington Financial January 19, 2026
Ellington Financial Inc. (NYSE:EFC) operates through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, to acquire and manage a diversified portfolio of mortgage-related, consumer-related, corporate-related, and other financial assets across the United States. The firm’s operations are split into two segments: an Investment Portfolio that holds a broad range of securities, and Longbridge, which focuses on originating and servicing loans.
The company’s asset mix includes residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) covering prime jumbo, Alt-A, non-QM, manufactured housing, subprime, and single-family-rental loans; agency-guaranteed RMBS; residential and commercial mortgage loans; consumer loan-backed ABS; mortgage servicing rights; collateralized loan obligations; and select non-mortgage derivatives. It also provides reverse mortgage products and related financing and hedging services. As a REIT, Ellington is required to distribute at least 90 % of its taxable income as dividends.
Key recent metrics (as of Q3 2024) show total assets under management of roughly $11 billion, a dividend yield near 10 % and a payout ratio of 95 % of net income. The firm’s net interest margin has been pressured by the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle, while credit-spread compression in the RMBS market has boosted the valuation of its agency-guaranteed securities. Core sector drivers include U.S. housing inventory levels, mortgage-rate volatility, and the pace of reverse-mortgage demand among aging homeowners.
For a deeper quantitative view of EFC’s risk-adjusted return profile, you may find ValueRay’s dashboard useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: 155.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.81 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -901.1% < 20% (prev -750.0%; Δ -151.1% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.04 > 3% & CFO -768.1m > Net Income 155.3m |
| Net Debt (-184.8m) to EBITDA (402.3m): -0.46 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (101.6m) vs 12m ago 15.39% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 52.92% > 18% (prev 0.76%; Δ 5216 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 1.78% > 50% (prev 1.85%; Δ -0.07% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.39 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 402.3m / Interest Expense TTM 286.5m) |
Altman Z'' -1.05
| A: -0.15 (Total Current Assets 184.8m - Total Current Liabilities 2.90b) / Total Assets 17.84b |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -384.7m / Total Assets 17.84b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 112.3m / Avg Total Assets 16.90b) |
| D: -0.02 (Book Value of Equity -384.6m / Total Liabilities 16.05b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -1.05 = CCC |
Beneish M -2.65
| DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 204.2m/224.9m, Revenue 301.2m/295.1m) |
| GMI: 1.44 (GM 52.92% / 76.25%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.99 / AQ_t-1 0.99) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 301.2m / 295.1m) |
| TATA: 0.05 (NI 155.3m - CFO -768.1m) / TA 17.84b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.65 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of EFC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.88%, over one month by -3.60%, over three months by -3.42% and over the past year by +14.54%.
Is EFC a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the EFC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 14.6 | 13.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 14.6 | 13.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 15.3 | 19.2% |
EFC Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/E Forward = 9.0744
P/S = 4.7847
P/B = 1.1737
P/EG = 0.86
Revenue TTM = 301.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 112.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 402.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 13.50b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.75b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 15.57b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -184.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 16.97b USD (1.58b + Debt 15.57b - CCE 184.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.39 (Ebit TTM 112.3m / Interest Expense TTM 286.5m)
EV/FCF = -22.09x (Enterprise Value 16.97b / FCF TTM -768.1m)
FCF Yield = -4.53% (FCF TTM -768.1m / Enterprise Value 16.97b)
FCF Margin = -255.0% (FCF TTM -768.1m / Revenue TTM 301.2m)
Net Margin = 51.57% (Net Income TTM 155.3m / Revenue TTM 301.2m)
Gross Margin = 52.92% ((Revenue TTM 301.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 141.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 68.68% (prev 75.27%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.95 (Enterprise Value 16.97b / Total Assets 17.84b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.47% (Interest Expense 73.1m / Debt 15.57b)
Taxrate = 2.73% (1.06m / 38.8m)
NOPAT = 109.2m (EBIT 112.3m * (1 - 2.73%))
Current Ratio = 0.06 (Total Current Assets 184.8m / Total Current Liabilities 2.90b)
Debt / Equity = 8.82 (Debt 15.57b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.77b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.46 (Net Debt -184.8m / EBITDA 402.3m)
Debt / FCF = 0.24 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -184.8m / FCF TTM -768.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.65b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.92% (Net Income 155.3m / Total Assets 17.84b)
RoE = 9.39% (Net Income TTM 155.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.65b)
RoCE = 0.74% (EBIT 112.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.65b + L.T.Debt 13.50b))
RoIC = 0.68% (NOPAT 109.2m / Invested Capital 16.11b)
WACC = 1.15% (E(1.58b)/V(17.15b) * Re(7.98%) + D(15.57b)/V(17.15b) * Rd(0.47%) * (1-Tc(0.03)))
Discount Rate = 7.98% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 18.67%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -768.1m)
EPS Correlation: -25.94 | EPS CAGR: -47.24% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 52.48 | Revenue CAGR: 43.81% | SUE: -0.57 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.46 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+3 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.85 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+5 | Growth EPS=+1.1% | Growth Revenue=+10.9%